1[2 {"id": "C1", "text": "Real-time naive forecast RMSE vs first releases was 2.01 pp at h=1 and 2.27 pp at h=2 (MAE 1.69 and 1.81).", "results_keys": ["rmse_naive_h1", "rmse_naive_h2", "mae_naive_h1", "mae_naive_h2"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "8 origins only."},3 {"id": "C2", "text": "The real-time AR(1) model achieved RMSE 1.49 pp at h=1 and 1.40 pp at h=2 (MAE 1.23 and 1.03).", "results_keys": ["rmse_model_h1", "rmse_model_h2", "mae_model_h1", "mae_model_h2"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "Pre-specified model; post-1985 sample with COVID rows excluded."},4 {"id": "C3", "text": "The AR(1) beat the naive forecast in this window, reducing RMSE by 26% (h=1) and 38% (h=2), with smaller absolute error at 5/8 (h=1) and 8/8 (h=2) origins.", "results_keys": ["rel_improvement_rmse_h1", "rel_improvement_rmse_h2", "n_origins_model_abs_error_smaller_h1", "n_origins_model_abs_error_smaller_h2"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "Descriptive only; no significance test is meaningful with 8 overlapping errors."},5 {"id": "C4", "text": "The h=1 target quarters were revised by 0.56 pp on average (absolute) between first release and the 2026-10-30 vintage.", "results_keys": ["mean_abs_revision_h1_targets", "abs_revision_h1_targets"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "Current vintage may still be revised further."}6]7