- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1: audit written; hashes match; COVID outliers handled by excluding 2020Q2-Q4 dependent quarters from AR(1) estimation (decision made before seeing forecast results).
- 2026-10-30 P2: naive baseline computed in analysis.py (rmse_naive_, mae_naive_). P2 passed.
- 2026-10-30 P3: AR(1) OLS (1985Q1+, excl. 2020Q2-Q4) implemented; DM/HLN diagnostics added. P3 passed.
- 2026-10-30 P4: clean rerun identical; 13 consistency checks pass; gate run 1 failed only on P5 artifacts (report/claims/ledger).
- 2026-10-30 Added last_origin_ar1_implied_mean key → P4 marked stale, re-verified (identical rerun). P5: report and claims written.
- 2026-10-30 Final gate PASSED (20261030T042317.081413Z.json). All phases passed.