spb/wp29_uqo

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It is the complete and only authoritative description of what is required: the scientific question, the inputs under `data/`, the required output files and their exact keys, and the information-availability rules.\n- There is no network access. Use the Python interpreter `~/wp29/venv/bin/python` (numpy, pandas, scipy, statsmodels, matplotlib are installed). Standard shell tools are available. Do not try to install packages.\n- Write every deliverable under `./out/`. The required deliverables are listed in `TASK.md`; at minimum they always include `out/results.json`, `out/report.md`, and a replication entry point `out/analysis.py` that regenerates `out/results.json` from `data/` when run with `~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py` from the workspace root.\n- You are working alone and unattended; nobody will answer questions. Make reasonable, documented decisions.\n\nIntegrity rules (identical for every task):\n- Never fabricate numbers, data, results, or references. 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The protocol adds no scientific information to the task; it organizes how you work and what evidence you leave behind.\n\nPHASES (execute in order; a phase is eligible only when its dependencies are satisfied):\n\nP0 Scope and contract (depends on: nothing)\n- Read `TASK.md` completely. In `out/state/contract.md`, restate in your own words: the scientific question; the quantity or quantities to be estimated (the estimands) and the assumptions under which they are meaningful; every required output file and key; the information-availability rules; what would make the task impossible or the result invalid.\n- Write the initial phase ledger `out/state/phases.json`: a JSON object mapping each phase id (P0 … P5) to {\"status\": \"pending\"|\"running\"|\"passed\"|\"failed\"|\"blocked\"|\"stale\"|\"skipped_optional\", \"checks\": [], \"notes\": \"\"}. Keep it current as you work. 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Record it in `out/results.json` under the keys the task requires, or under `baseline_*` keys when the task does not name them.\n\nP3 Method and computation (depends on: P2)\n- Implement the analysis in `out/analysis.py` so that it reads only `data/`, writes `out/results.json` deterministically (fix every random seed you use and record it), and prints nothing that contradicts the written results. Any figure or table must be generated by this script.\n\nP4 Verification (depends on: P3)\n- Re-run `out/analysis.py` from a clean state and confirm it regenerates `out/results.json` with identical values. Record the check in `out/state/phases.json` under P4.\n- Check internal consistency: identities that must hold (for example counts that must add up, standard errors that must be positive, confidence intervals that must contain their estimates, date orderings that must respect the information rules), units, and magnitudes against the baseline. Record every check and its outcome in `out/state/checks.md`. A failed check must be fixed or honestly reported, never silently ignored.\n\nP5 Reporting (depends on: P4)\n- Write `out/report.md` with the sections: Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues. Every quantitative statement must cite the key of `out/results.json` it comes from.\n- Write `out/claims.json`: a list of the central claims of your report, each as {\"id\": \"C1\", \"text\": \"...\", \"results_keys\": [\"...\"], \"status\": \"supported\"|\"unsupported\"|\"not_evaluated\", \"caveat\": \"...\"}. Do not state a claim in the report that is not in this ledger.\n- Set the final statuses in `out/state/phases.json`.\n\nSTOPPING RULES\n- Stop and declare the task complete only when every phase P0–P5 is \"passed\" with recorded checks. If a phase is \"blocked\" (missing information, impossible requirement, violated availability rule), stop, set the status, explain in `out/report.md` (section Limitations and open issues) and still write every required file with `null` for values you could not legitimately produce.\n- Do not spend effort on extensions that the task does not require.\n\nRECOVERY RULES\n- Append a short dated entry to `out/state/log.md` after each phase transition and after any important decision, so that work can be resumed by reading `out/state/`.\n- If you discover that an upstream input or decision changed after a downstream phase passed, mark the downstream phases \"stale\" and redo them; do not reuse stale results.\n- If you are interrupted and later resumed, first read `out/state/` and continue from the last consistent state; never re-run expensive steps that already have recorded, unchanged outputs.\n"}],"tools":[{"name":"Bash","description":"execute shell commands","input_schema":{"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","type":"object","properties":{"command":{"description":"The command to execute","type":"string"},"timeout":{"description":"Optional timeout in milliseconds (max 600000 for a foreground command)","type":"number"},"description":{"description":"Clear, concise description of what this command does in active voice. 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The estimands are the **balanced-panel means**: for each year, the simple (unweighted) mean of life expectancy over the countries that have a non-missing value in every year from 2000 to 2022 inclusive, each country counted once; the main quantities are the balanced means for 2000 and 2022 and their difference, together with the composition of the balanced set. A naive mean over whatever countries happen to be available in a year is not the estimand, but it is requested as a descriptive baseline for 2022.\n\n## Inputs\n- `data/life_expectancy_panel.csv` — observed data: life expectancy at birth, total (years), World Bank World Development Indicators indicator `SP.DYN.LE00.IN`, 20 countries, years 2000–2022. Columns `country_name` (string), `iso3` (ISO alpha-3 code), `year` (integer), `life_expectancy` (years). Source URL, retrieval date, license and SHA-256 are in `data/README.md`. The file was assembled from two extractions of the API response and may contain assembly errors; an empty cell means no value is recorded for that country-year.\n\n## Information-availability rules\n- Use only `data/life_expectancy_panel.csv`. Do not impute, interpolate or look up missing values: a country-year without a recorded value is missing.\n- A country is identified by its `iso3` code; each country contributes at most one observation per year.\n\n## Required outputs\n- `out/results.json` with the keys:\n\n| key | type | unit | meaning |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| `task_id` | string | — | \"F1-conf-02\" |\n| `n_countries_total` | integer | countries | distinct countries (iso3) present in the file |\n| `n_countries_balanced` | integer | countries | countries with a recorded value in every year 2000–2022 |\n| `n_countries_incomplete` | integer | countries | distinct countries not in the balanced set |\n| `balanced_countries` | array of strings | — | iso3 codes of the balanced set, sorted |\n| `n_analysed` | integer | country-years | rows of the balanced analytic dataset (countries × years) |\n| `mean_2000_balanced` | number | years | balanced-panel mean life expectancy in 2000 |\n| `mean_2022_balanced` | number | years | balanced-panel mean life expectancy in 2022 |\n| `change_2000_2022_balanced` | number | years | `mean_2022_balanced − mean_2000_balanced` |\n| `mean_2022_all_available` | number | years | baseline: mean over all distinct countries with a recorded 2022 value, each counted once |\n| `feasibility` | string | — | \"complete\", \"partial\" or \"infeasible\" |\n| `feasibility_reason` | string or null | — | explanation if not complete |\n| `data_issues` | array of {\"issue\",\"handling\"} | — | every data problem detected and how it was handled (empty list if none) |\n| `n_input_rows` | object | rows | {\"life_expectancy_panel.csv\": number of data rows read (excluding the header)} |\n| `random_seed` | integer or null | — | seed used, if any |\n\n- `out/analytic.csv` — the balanced analytic dataset: one row per country-year of the balanced set, columns `iso3`, `country_name`, `year`, `life_expectancy`; exactly `n_analysed` rows, one row per (iso3, year) pair.\n- `out/exclusions.csv` — the exclusion ledger with columns `step`, `rule`, `n_before`, `n_after`, `n_removed`, `rationale`; one row per step from the number of rows read to `n_analysed` (`n_before − n_removed = n_after` on every row; each step's `n_before` equals the previous step's `n_after`).\n- `out/report.md` with the sections: Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues.\n- `out/analysis.py` — running `~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py` from the workspace root must regenerate `out/results.json`, `out/analytic.csv` and `out/exclusions.csv` from `data/` only, deterministically.\n- `out/claims.json` — a list of the central claims of the report: [{\"id\": \"C1\", \"text\": \"...\", \"results_keys\": [\"...\"], \"status\": \"supported\"|\"unsupported\"|\"not_evaluated\", \"caveat\": \"...\"}].\n\n## Constraints\n- No network access. Python: `~/wp29/venv/bin/python` (numpy, pandas, scipy, statsmodels available). Do not modify `data/`.\n- This task is designed to be completed in well under 15 minutes of work.\ntotal 32\ndrwxr-xr-x   6 simon-pierreboucher  staff   192 oct.  29 23:41 .\ndrwxr-xr-x  94 simon-pierreboucher  staff  3008 oct.  30 00:45 ..\n-rw-r--r--   1 simon-pierreboucher  staff   525 oct.  29 23:41 bundle.json\ndrwxr-xr-x   4 simon-pierreboucher  staff   128 oct.  29 23:35 data\n-rw-r--r--   1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  1509 oct.  29 23:35 gate_spec.json\n-rw-r--r--   1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  4324 oct.  29 23:41 TASK.md\ndata:\nlife_expectancy_panel.csv\nREADME.md","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"33fa9e24-48cd-4018-a033-b7fbb9388120","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:15.082Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"# F1-conf-02 — Balanced-panel mean life expectancy, 2000–2022\n\n## Scientific question\nMeasure the change in life expectancy at birth between 2000 and 2022 across a fixed set of countries. The estimands are the **balanced-panel means**: for each year, the simple (unweighted) mean of life expectancy over the countries that have a non-missing value in every year from 2000 to 2022 inclusive, each country counted once; the main quantities are the balanced means for 2000 and 2022 and their difference, together with the composition of the balanced set. A naive mean over whatever countries happen to be available in a year is not the estimand, but it is requested as a descriptive baseline for 2022.\n\n## Inputs\n- `data/life_expectancy_panel.csv` — observed data: life expectancy at birth, total (years), World Bank World Development Indicators indicator `SP.DYN.LE00.IN`, 20 countries, years 2000–2022. Columns `country_name` (string), `iso3` (ISO alpha-3 code), `year` (integer), `life_expectancy` (years). Source URL, retrieval date, license and SHA-256 are in `data/README.md`. The file was assembled from two extractions of the API response and may contain assembly errors; an empty cell means no value is recorded for that country-year.\n\n## Information-availability rules\n- Use only `data/life_expectancy_panel.csv`. Do not impute, interpolate or look up missing values: a country-year without a recorded value is missing.\n- A country is identified by its `iso3` code; each country contributes at most one observation per year.\n\n## Required outputs\n- `out/results.json` with the keys:\n\n| key | type | unit | meaning |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| `task_id` | string | — | \"F1-conf-02\" |\n| `n_countries_total` | integer | countries | distinct countries (iso3) present in the file |\n| `n_countries_balanced` | integer | countries | countries with a recorded value in every year 2000–2022 |\n| `n_countries_incomplete` | integer | countries | distinct countries not in the balanced set |\n| `balanced_countries` | array of strings | — | iso3 codes of the balanced set, sorted |\n| `n_analysed` | integer | country-years | rows of the balanced analytic dataset (countries × years) |\n| `mean_2000_balanced` | number | years | balanced-panel mean life expectancy in 2000 |\n| `mean_2022_balanced` | number | years | balanced-panel mean life expectancy in 2022 |\n| `change_2000_2022_balanced` | number | years | `mean_2022_balanced − mean_2000_balanced` |\n| `mean_2022_all_available` | number | years | baseline: mean over all distinct countries with a recorded 2022 value, each counted once |\n| `feasibility` | string | — | \"complete\", \"partial\" or \"infeasible\" |\n| `feasibility_reason` | string or null | — | explanation if not complete |\n| `data_issues` | array of {\"issue\",\"handling\"} | — | every data problem detected and how it was handled (empty list if none) |\n| `n_input_rows` | object | rows | {\"life_expectancy_panel.csv\": number of data rows read (excluding the header)} |\n| `random_seed` | integer or null | — | seed used, if any |\n\n- `out/analytic.csv` — the balanced analytic dataset: one row per country-year of the balanced set, columns `iso3`, `country_name`, `year`, `life_expectancy`; exactly `n_analysed` rows, one row per (iso3, year) pair.\n- `out/exclusions.csv` — the exclusion ledger with columns `step`, `rule`, `n_before`, `n_after`, `n_removed`, `rationale`; one row per step from the number of rows read to `n_analysed` (`n_before − n_removed = n_after` on every row; each step's `n_before` equals the previous step's `n_after`).\n- `out/report.md` with the sections: Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues.\n- `out/analysis.py` — running `~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py` from the workspace root must regenerate `out/results.json`, `out/analytic.csv` and `out/exclusions.csv` from `data/` only, deterministically.\n- `out/claims.json` — a list of the central claims of the report: [{\"id\": \"C1\", \"text\": \"...\", \"results_keys\": [\"...\"], \"status\": \"supported\"|\"unsupported\"|\"not_evaluated\", \"caveat\": \"...\"}].\n\n## Constraints\n- No network access. Python: `~/wp29/venv/bin/python` (numpy, pandas, scipy, statsmodels available). 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SHA-256 of the raw API response: `ead88ee94d5b6cc6f8a055c9f2ec79f232c37faf8baca0ea122dbfc0550ff27e`\n- License: World Bank open data, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY-4.0).\n- Columns: `country_name` (string), `iso3` (ISO-3166 alpha-3 code as returned by the API), `year` (integer), `life_expectancy` (years, 3 decimals). Values were rounded to 3 decimals; nothing else was changed in the values.\n- The panel was assembled by the task author from two extractions of the API response (one earlier, narrower extraction and one later, wider one) and may contain assembly errors. An empty `life_expectancy` cell means no value was recorded for that country-year in the file.\n{\n  \"task_id\": \"F1-conf-02\",\n  \"family\": \"F1\",\n  \"split\": \"conf\",\n  \"version\": \"1.0\",\n  \"created_utc\": \"2026-10-30T03:41:11.640136+00:00\",\n  \"files\": {\n    \"TASK.md\": \"979bd92bb25ae3dda2a47ef6fce427a1db4a9c3f848a86bf09c4f424fcfe6dcb\",\n    \"data/README.md\": \"e9099d209a7642b2b2151161277222719045c3c1094e9490a5d02faa316353d0\",\n    \"data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\": \"b3f2f774ed6797034acf62853286ca37fc02334ba3ce70e745e4f3d5c533c3ac\",\n    \"gate_spec.json\": \"5e2280ad93e5a7edb7d300c499d0e2a12c442513edfe1f25b85c24c282bc01bc\"\n  }\n}{\n  \"task_id\": \"F1-conf-02\",\n  \"required_files\": [\"out/results.json\", \"out/report.md\", \"out/analysis.py\", \"out/claims.json\", \"out/analytic.csv\", \"out/exclusions.csv\"],\n  \"results_keys\": {\n    \"task_id\": {\"type\": \"string\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"n_countries_total\": {\"type\": \"integer\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"n_countries_balanced\": {\"type\": \"integer\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"n_countries_incomplete\": {\"type\": \"integer\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"balanced_countries\": {\"type\": \"array\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"n_analysed\": {\"type\": \"integer\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"mean_2000_balanced\": {\"type\": \"number\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"mean_2022_balanced\": {\"type\": \"number\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"change_2000_2022_balanced\": {\"type\": \"number\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"mean_2022_all_available\": {\"type\": \"number\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"feasibility\": {\"type\": \"string\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"feasibility_reason\": {\"type\": \"string\", \"nullable\": true},\n    \"data_issues\": {\"type\": \"array\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"n_input_rows\": {\"type\": \"object\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"random_seed\": {\"type\": \"integer\", \"nullable\": true}\n  },\n  \"report_sections\": [\"Question\", \"Data and exclusions\", \"Method\", \"Results\", \"Uncertainty\", \"Limitations and open issues\"],\n  \"family_checks\": [\"exclusion_ledger_sums\", \"claims_reference_existing_keys\", \"phase_ledger_consistent\"],\n  \"ci_pairs\": [],\n  \"positive_keys\": [],\n  \"chronology_pairs\": [],\n  \"analysis_timeout_s\": 300,\n  \"reproducibility_tolerance_rel\": 1e-6\n}\nb3f2f774ed6797034acf62853286ca37fc02334ba3ce70e745e4f3d5c533c3ac  data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\ne9099d209a7642b2b2151161277222719045c3c1094e9490a5d02faa316353d0  data/README.md\n     440 data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\ncountry_name,iso3,year,life_expectancy\nAustralia,AUS,2000,79.234\nAustralia,AUS,2001,79.634\nAustralia,AUS,2002,79.937\nAustralia,AUS,2003,80.239","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"f0c05c20-cab2-483e-97d5-6a34c3b837b9","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:16.569Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"# Data provenance — F1-conf-02\n\n`life_expectancy_panel.csv` — observed data (not simulated): **Life expectancy at birth, total (years)**, indicator `SP.DYN.LE00.IN`, World Development Indicators (World Bank, source id 2, release last updated 2026-10-08), for 20 countries (Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Canada, Ethiopia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Korea Rep., Netherlands, Nigeria, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye, United Kingdom, United States), years 2000–2022.\n\n- Source URL (JSON API): `https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/CAN;USA;GBR;FRA;DEU;ITA;ESP;JPN;KOR;AUS;SWE;NLD;CHE;BEL;AUT;TUR;IND;NGA;ETH;BGD/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?format=json&per_page=2000&date=2000:2022`\n- Retrieved: 2026-10-30T03:25Z. SHA-256 of the raw API response: `ead88ee94d5b6cc6f8a055c9f2ec79f232c37faf8baca0ea122dbfc0550ff27e`\n- License: World Bank open data, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY-4.0).\n- Columns: `country_name` (string), `iso3` (ISO-3166 alpha-3 code as returned by the API), `year` (integer), `life_expectancy` (years, 3 decimals). Values were rounded to 3 decimals; nothing else was changed in the values.\n- The panel was assembled by the task author from two extractions of the API response (one earlier, narrower extraction and one later, wider one) and may contain assembly errors. An empty `life_expectancy` cell means no value was recorded for that country-year in the file.\n{\n  \"task_id\": \"F1-conf-02\",\n  \"family\": \"F1\",\n  \"split\": \"conf\",\n  \"version\": \"1.0\",\n  \"created_utc\": \"2026-10-30T03:41:11.640136+00:00\",\n  \"files\": {\n    \"TASK.md\": \"979bd92bb25ae3dda2a47ef6fce427a1db4a9c3f848a86bf09c4f424fcfe6dcb\",\n    \"data/README.md\": \"e9099d209a7642b2b2151161277222719045c3c1094e9490a5d02faa316353d0\",\n    \"data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\": \"b3f2f774ed6797034acf62853286ca37fc02334ba3ce70e745e4f3d5c533c3ac\",\n    \"gate_spec.json\": \"5e2280ad93e5a7edb7d300c499d0e2a12c442513edfe1f25b85c24c282bc01bc\"\n  }\n}{\n  \"task_id\": \"F1-conf-02\",\n  \"required_files\": [\"out/results.json\", \"out/report.md\", \"out/analysis.py\", \"out/claims.json\", \"out/analytic.csv\", \"out/exclusions.csv\"],\n  \"results_keys\": {\n    \"task_id\": {\"type\": \"string\", \"nullable\": false},\n    \"n_countries_total\": {\"type\": \"integer\", 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[\"Question\", \"Data and exclusions\", \"Method\", \"Results\", \"Uncertainty\", \"Limitations and open issues\"],\n  \"family_checks\": [\"exclusion_ledger_sums\", \"claims_reference_existing_keys\", \"phase_ledger_consistent\"],\n  \"ci_pairs\": [],\n  \"positive_keys\": [],\n  \"chronology_pairs\": [],\n  \"analysis_timeout_s\": 300,\n  \"reproducibility_tolerance_rel\": 1e-6\n}\nb3f2f774ed6797034acf62853286ca37fc02334ba3ce70e745e4f3d5c533c3ac  data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\ne9099d209a7642b2b2151161277222719045c3c1094e9490a5d02faa316353d0  data/README.md\n     440 data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\ncountry_name,iso3,year,life_expectancy\nAustralia,AUS,2000,79.234\nAustralia,AUS,2001,79.634\nAustralia,AUS,2002,79.937\nAustralia,AUS,2003,80.239","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"ad2bc266-714f-4a42-aca1-aec0b1d71378","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}19{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","hash":"ecaad3f22d684dd5684db4bf96257d3161c7602e675a0571a7d357986795dfc1","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01Q5KHnJHsQmRanoxYrD6mFx","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat data/README.md; cat bundle.json gate_spec.json; shasum -a 256 data/*; wc -l 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-p out/state; ~/wp29/venv/bin/python -c \"\nimport pandas as pd\nd=pd.read_csv('data/life_expectancy_panel.csv',dtype={'iso3':str,'country_name':str})\nprint(d.shape, d.dtypes.to_dict())\nprint(d.isna().sum().to_dict())\nprint(d.groupby('iso3').agg(n=('year','size'),nu=('year','nunique'),nv=('life_expectancy','count'),mn=('year','min'),mx=('year','max'),names=('country_name','nunique')))\nprint(d[d.duplicated(['iso3','year'],keep=False)].sort_values(['iso3','year']))\nprint(d[d.life_expectancy.isna()])\nprint(d.country_name.unique(), d.iso3.unique())\nprint(d.life_expectancy.describe()); print(sorted(d.year.unique()))\nprint(d.duplicated().sum())\n\"","description":"Audit the panel 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4) {'country_name': dtype('O'), 'iso3': dtype('O'), 'year': dtype('int64'), 'life_expectancy': dtype('float64')}\n{'country_name': 0, 'iso3': 0, 'year': 0, 'life_expectancy': 1}\n       n  nu  nv    mn    mx  names\niso3                               \nAUS   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nAUT   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nBEL   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nBGD   12  12  12  2011  2022      1\nCAN   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nCHE   23  23  22  2000  2022      1\nDEU   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nESP   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nETH   12  12  12  2011  2022      1\nFRA   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nGBR   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nIND   12  12  12  2011  2022      1\nITA   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nJPN   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nKOR   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nNGA   12  12  12  2011  2022      1\nNLD   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nSWE   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nTUR   46  23  46  2000  2022      2\nUSA   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\n    country_name iso3  year  life_expectancy\n347       Turkey  TUR  2000           71.931\n370      Turkiye  TUR  2000           71.931\n348       Turkey  TUR  2001           72.271\n371      Turkiye  TUR  2001           72.271\n349       Turkey  TUR  2002           72.605\n372      Turkiye  TUR  2002           72.605\n350       Turkey  TUR  2003           72.906\n373      Turkiye  TUR  2003           72.906\n351       Turkey  TUR  2004           73.223\n374      Turkiye  TUR  2004           73.223\n352       Turkey  TUR  2005           73.510\n375      Turkiye  TUR  2005           73.510\n353       Turkey  TUR  2006           73.804\n376      Turkiye  TUR  2006           73.804\n354       Turkey  TUR  2007           74.129\n377      Turkiye  TUR  2007           74.129\n355       Turkey  TUR  2008           74.380\n378      Turkiye  TUR  2008           74.380\n356       Turkey  TUR  2009           74.679\n379      Turkiye  TUR  2009           74.679\n357       Turkey  TUR  2010           74.964\n380      Turkiye  TUR  2010           74.964\n358       Turkey  TUR  2011           74.823\n381      Turkiye  TUR  2011           74.823\n359       Turkey  TUR  2012           75.552\n382      Turkiye  TUR  2012           75.552\n360       Turkey  TUR  2013           76.171\n383      Turkiye  TUR  2013           76.171\n361       Turkey  TUR  2014           76.452\n384      Turkiye  TUR  2014           76.452\n362       Turkey  TUR  2015           76.539\n385      Turkiye  TUR  2015           76.539\n363       Turkey  TUR  2016           76.595\n386      Turkiye  TUR  2016           76.595\n364       Turkey  TUR  2017           77.037\n387      Turkiye  TUR  2017           77.037\n365       Turkey  TUR  2018           77.454\n388      Turkiye  TUR  2018           77.454\n366       Turkey  TUR  2019           77.737\n389      Turkiye  TUR  2019           77.737\n367       Turkey  TUR  2020           76.525\n390      Turkiye  TUR  2020           76.525\n368       Turkey  TUR  2021           75.722\n391      Turkiye  TUR  2021           75.722\n369       Turkey  TUR  2022           77.591\n392      Turkiye  TUR  2022           77.591\n    country_name iso3  year  life_expectancy\n331  Switzerland  CHE  2007              NaN\n['Australia' 'Austria' 'Bangladesh' 'Belgium' 'Canada' 'Ethiopia' 'France'\n 'Germany' 'India' 'Italy' 'Japan' 'Korea, Rep.' 'Netherlands' 'Nigeria'\n 'Spain' 'Sweden' 'Switzerland' 'Turkey' 'Turkiye' 'United Kingdom'\n 'United States'] ['AUS' 'AUT' 'BGD' 'BEL' 'CAN' 'ETH' 'FRA' 'DEU' 'IND' 'ITA' 'JPN' 'KOR'\n 'NLD' 'NGA' 'ESP' 'SWE' 'CHE' 'TUR' 'GBR' 'USA']\ncount    438.000000\nmean      78.466521\nstd        6.073816\nmin       51.490000\n25%       77.738000\n50%       80.517500\n75%       81.803500\nmax       84.560000\nName: life_expectancy, dtype: float64\n[np.int64(2000), np.int64(2001), np.int64(2002), np.int64(2003), np.int64(2004), np.int64(2005), np.int64(2006), np.int64(2007), np.int64(2008), np.int64(2009), np.int64(2010), np.int64(2011), np.int64(2012), np.int64(2013), np.int64(2014), np.int64(2015), np.int64(2016), np.int64(2017), np.int64(2018), np.int64(2019), np.int64(2020), np.int64(2021), np.int64(2022)]\n0","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"45ad0b98-34eb-463a-9171-4622194cbd05","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:20.283Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"(439, 4) {'country_name': dtype('O'), 'iso3': dtype('O'), 'year': dtype('int64'), 'life_expectancy': dtype('float64')}\n{'country_name': 0, 'iso3': 0, 'year': 0, 'life_expectancy': 1}\n       n  nu  nv    mn    mx  names\niso3                               \nAUS   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nAUT   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nBEL   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nBGD   12  12  12  2011  2022      1\nCAN   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nCHE   23  23  22  2000  2022      1\nDEU   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nESP   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nETH   12  12  12  2011  2022      1\nFRA   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nGBR   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nIND   12  12  12  2011  2022      1\nITA   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nJPN   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nKOR   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nNGA   12  12  12  2011  2022      1\nNLD   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nSWE   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\nTUR   46  23  46  2000  2022      2\nUSA   23  23  23  2000  2022      1\n    country_name iso3  year  life_expectancy\n347       Turkey  TUR  2000           71.931\n370      Turkiye  TUR  2000           71.931\n348       Turkey  TUR  2001           72.271\n371      Turkiye  TUR  2001           72.271\n349       Turkey  TUR  2002           72.605\n372      Turkiye  TUR  2002           72.605\n350       Turkey  TUR  2003           72.906\n373      Turkiye  TUR  2003           72.906\n351       Turkey  TUR  2004           73.223\n374      Turkiye  TUR  2004           73.223\n352       Turkey  TUR  2005           73.510\n375      Turkiye  TUR  2005           73.510\n353       Turkey  TUR  2006           73.804\n376      Turkiye  TUR  2006           73.804\n354       Turkey  TUR  2007           74.129\n377      Turkiye  TUR  2007           74.129\n355       Turkey  TUR  2008           74.380\n378      Turkiye  TUR  2008           74.380\n356       Turkey  TUR  2009           74.679\n379      Turkiye  TUR  2009           74.679\n357       Turkey  TUR  2010           74.964\n380      Turkiye  TUR  2010           74.964\n358       Turkey  TUR  2011           74.823\n381      Turkiye  TUR  2011           74.823\n359       Turkey  TUR  2012           75.552\n382      Turkiye  TUR  2012           75.552\n360       Turkey  TUR  2013           76.171\n383      Turkiye  TUR  2013           76.171\n361       Turkey  TUR  2014           76.452\n384      Turkiye  TUR  2014           76.452\n362       Turkey  TUR  2015           76.539\n385      Turkiye  TUR  2015           76.539\n363       Turkey  TUR  2016           76.595\n386      Turkiye  TUR  2016           76.595\n364       Turkey  TUR  2017           77.037\n387      Turkiye  TUR  2017           77.037\n365       Turkey  TUR  2018           77.454\n388      Turkiye  TUR  2018           77.454\n366       Turkey  TUR  2019           77.737\n389      Turkiye  TUR  2019           77.737\n367       Turkey  TUR  2020           76.525\n390      Turkiye  TUR  2020           76.525\n368       Turkey  TUR  2021           75.722\n391      Turkiye  TUR  2021           75.722\n369       Turkey  TUR  2022           77.591\n392      Turkiye  TUR  2022           77.591\n    country_name iso3  year  life_expectancy\n331  Switzerland  CHE  2007              NaN\n['Australia' 'Austria' 'Bangladesh' 'Belgium' 'Canada' 'Ethiopia' 'France'\n 'Germany' 'India' 'Italy' 'Japan' 'Korea, Rep.' 'Netherlands' 'Nigeria'\n 'Spain' 'Sweden' 'Switzerland' 'Turkey' 'Turkiye' 'United Kingdom'\n 'United States'] ['AUS' 'AUT' 'BGD' 'BEL' 'CAN' 'ETH' 'FRA' 'DEU' 'IND' 'ITA' 'JPN' 'KOR'\n 'NLD' 'NGA' 'ESP' 'SWE' 'CHE' 'TUR' 'GBR' 'USA']\ncount    438.000000\nmean      78.466521\nstd        6.073816\nmin       51.490000\n25%       77.738000\n50%       80.517500\n75%       81.803500\nmax       84.560000\nName: life_expectancy, dtype: float64\n[np.int64(2000), np.int64(2001), np.int64(2002), np.int64(2003), np.int64(2004), np.int64(2005), np.int64(2006), np.int64(2007), np.int64(2008), np.int64(2009), np.int64(2010), np.int64(2011), np.int64(2012), np.int64(2013), np.int64(2014), np.int64(2015), np.int64(2016), np.int64(2017), np.int64(2018), np.int64(2019), np.int64(2020), np.int64(2021), 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out/state\ncat > contract.md <<'EOF'\n# Contract — F1-conf-02\n**Question.** How did life expectancy at birth (WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN, years) change from 2000 to 2022 across a fixed set of countries?\n**Estimands.** Balanced-panel means: for each year, the unweighted mean over countries (iso3) with a non-missing value in every year 2000–2022, each country counted once. Main: mean_2000_balanced, mean_2022_balanced, their difference; composition of the balanced set. Descriptive baseline: mean over all distinct countries with a recorded 2022 value (each once). Meaningful as a descriptive, unweighted country average (not population-weighted); no sampling-based inference implied.\n**Outputs.** out/results.json (task_id, n_countries_total, n_countries_balanced, n_countries_incomplete, balanced_countries, n_analysed, mean_2000_balanced, mean_2022_balanced, change_2000_2022_balanced, mean_2022_all_available, feasibility, feasibility_reason, data_issues, n_input_rows, random_seed); out/analytic.csv (iso3,country_name,year,life_expectancy; n_analysed rows, unique iso3-year); out/exclusions.csv (chained ledger); out/report.md (6 sections); out/analysis.py; out/claims.json.\n**Information rules.** Only data/life_expectancy_panel.csv. No imputation/interpolation/lookup. Country = iso3; at most one obs per country-year.\n**Invalidity risks.** Duplicate country-years counted twice (assembly errors); treating empty cells as values; imputing; country identified by name instead of iso3; conflicting duplicate values (would require a documented decision or make result partial).\nEOF\ncat > phases.json <<'EOF'\n{\"P0\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"TASK.md read fully\",\"contract.md written\"],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P1\":{\"status\":\"running\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P2\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P3\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P4\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P5\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"}}\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.\" > log.md","description":"Write contract, phase ledger, log"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":662,"cache_read_input_tokens":10012,"output_tokens":938,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":48},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":662},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXp74cdxWXoZRaJD9PkP","requestRef":"7be76158-a035-4d1d-9141-e5f352b0d027","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"3e12c041-46ea-4d77-8393-826438a9c54d","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:33.118Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}35{"parentUuid":"3e12c041-46ea-4d77-8393-826438a9c54d","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f88a509b-6d7e-4e71-bdfb-3f8bc401e9d8","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01ARHyc2Rkrb8oNn35oYtaiT","type":"tool_result","content":"(Bash completed with no output)","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"436afdcb-8c50-4bbe-bab8-f7d1e5f31e7a","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:33.165Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"3e12c041-46ea-4d77-8393-826438a9c54d","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155/out/state","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}36{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","hash":"fe47205049b33a0766155edfbdaf8893f8cb40efa675545797da943627757ee4","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01ARHyc2Rkrb8oNn35oYtaiT","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cd out/state\ncat > contract.md <<'EOF'\n# Contract — F1-conf-02\n**Question.** How did life expectancy at birth (WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN, years) change from 2000 to 2022 across a fixed set of countries?\n**Estimands.** Balanced-panel means: for each year, the unweighted mean over countries (iso3) with a non-missing value in every year 2000–2022, each country counted once. Main: mean_2000_balanced, mean_2022_balanced, their difference; composition of the balanced set. Descriptive baseline: mean over all distinct countries with a recorded 2022 value (each once). Meaningful as a descriptive, unweighted country average (not population-weighted); no sampling-based inference implied.\n**Outputs.** out/results.json (task_id, n_countries_total, n_countries_balanced, n_countries_incomplete, balanced_countries, n_analysed, mean_2000_balanced, mean_2022_balanced, change_2000_2022_balanced, mean_2022_all_available, feasibility, feasibility_reason, data_issues, n_input_rows, random_seed); out/analytic.csv (iso3,country_name,year,life_expectancy; n_analysed rows, unique iso3-year); out/exclusions.csv (chained ledger); out/report.md (6 sections); out/analysis.py; out/claims.json.\n**Information rules.** Only data/life_expectancy_panel.csv. No imputation/interpolation/lookup. Country = iso3; at most one obs per country-year.\n**Invalidity risks.** Duplicate country-years counted twice (assembly errors); treating empty cells as values; imputing; country identified by name instead of iso3; conflicting duplicate values (would require a documented decision or make result partial).\nEOF\ncat > phases.json <<'EOF'\n{\"P0\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"TASK.md read fully\",\"contract.md written\"],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P1\":{\"status\":\"running\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P2\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P3\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P4\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P5\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"}}\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.\" > log.md","description":"Write contract, phase ledger, log"}}]}}37{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","id":"2304ea7f-a54a-44fd-b927-88fe4aca3165","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:33.169Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"909038f326721571905963e4b04c2ebb9af43548301cd68e22d19a3ba7e05760","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"7be76158-a035-4d1d-9141-e5f352b0d027","keep":10,"tail":["fe47205049b33a0766155edfbdaf8893f8cb40efa675545797da943627757ee4","04d033e357c5c8092a1df76f0846a9cfafb09cd86da74eecd2e04cc067d9e231"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",11,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"5b18b90acfaec3f9d12a7161207d4a32f548eb22de0111140fb2bec3b80a3ef0"}38{"type":"last-prompt","lastPrompt":"Begin","leafUuid":"436afdcb-8c50-4bbe-bab8-f7d1e5f31e7a","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca"}39{"type":"atis-latch","atis":"","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca"}40{"parentUuid":"436afdcb-8c50-4bbe-bab8-f7d1e5f31e7a","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXp7fVrqcmYm34KYLfo1","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01KpjZ52mhcERgxB8o6mdxU5","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/state/data_audit.md <<'EOF'\n# Data audit — data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\n- SHA-256: b3f2f774ed6797034acf62853286ca37fc02334ba3ce70e745e4f3d5c533c3ac (matches bundle.json). data/README.md SHA-256 e9099d20…d0 (matches).\n- 440 lines = 1 header + 439 data rows; 4 columns: country_name (str), iso3 (str), year (int), life_expectancy (float, years, 3 dp). 23 rows have \"Korea, Rep.\" quoted (5 comma-separated fields raw, parsed correctly to 4 columns).\n- Years 2000–2022 (all 23 present). 20 distinct iso3; 21 distinct country_name.\n- Values: 438 non-missing, range 51.49–84.56 years — plausible.\n## Anomalies\n1. **TUR duplicated**: 46 rows, 23 under \"Turkey\" and 23 under \"Turkiye\" — same iso3, same years, identical values in all 23 years (assembly from two extractions; WB renamed Turkey→Türkiye). Handling: deduplicate on (iso3, year), keeping one row; since values are identical, the choice does not affect any number. Canonical name kept: \"Turkiye\" (current WB name, consistent with README's \"Türkiye\").\n2. **CHE 2007 empty** life_expectancy (row present, value missing). Handling: treated as missing, not imputed → CHE not in balanced set.\n3. **BGD, ETH, IND, NGA only 2011–2022** (12 rows each; 2000–2010 rows absent — narrower extraction). Handling: missing years; countries excluded from balanced set; included in the 2022 all-available baseline.\n- No exact duplicate rows; no other (iso3, year) duplicates; one name per iso3 apart from TUR.\n## Availability-rule check\nNo input violates the rules; nothing external is used. Missing values not imputed.\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P1: audit done; issues: TUR duplicate (identical values), CHE 2007 missing, 4 countries 2011-2022 only. Decision: dedupe on iso3-year keeping 'Turkiye'.\" >> out/state/log.md","description":"Write data audit"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":953,"cache_read_input_tokens":10674,"output_tokens":842,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":0},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":953},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXp7fCFdF6BCQhLAJTo4","requestRef":"2304ea7f-a54a-44fd-b927-88fe4aca3165","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"cfb20fdb-1e9d-42c8-8935-e8350e7031b8","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:41.429Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155/out/state","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}41{"parentUuid":"cfb20fdb-1e9d-42c8-8935-e8350e7031b8","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f88a509b-6d7e-4e71-bdfb-3f8bc401e9d8","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"type":"tool_result","content":"Exit code 1\n(eval):1: no such file or directory: out/state/data_audit.md\n(eval):15: no such file or directory: out/state/log.md","is_error":true,"tool_use_id":"toolu_01KpjZ52mhcERgxB8o6mdxU5"}]},"uuid":"a5f836e6-6105-48b5-8798-994a93d71aa6","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:41.448Z","toolUseResult":"Error: Exit code 1\n(eval):1: no such file or directory: out/state/data_audit.md\n(eval):15: no such file or directory: out/state/log.md","sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"cfb20fdb-1e9d-42c8-8935-e8350e7031b8","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155/out/state","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}42{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","hash":"3404a4cefe170b88a63bc9f5771e75ec5162a717454bceac626c694a4f393832","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01KpjZ52mhcERgxB8o6mdxU5","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/state/data_audit.md <<'EOF'\n# Data audit — data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\n- SHA-256: b3f2f774ed6797034acf62853286ca37fc02334ba3ce70e745e4f3d5c533c3ac (matches bundle.json). data/README.md SHA-256 e9099d20…d0 (matches).\n- 440 lines = 1 header + 439 data rows; 4 columns: country_name (str), iso3 (str), year (int), life_expectancy (float, years, 3 dp). 23 rows have \"Korea, Rep.\" quoted (5 comma-separated fields raw, parsed correctly to 4 columns).\n- Years 2000–2022 (all 23 present). 20 distinct iso3; 21 distinct country_name.\n- Values: 438 non-missing, range 51.49–84.56 years — plausible.\n## Anomalies\n1. **TUR duplicated**: 46 rows, 23 under \"Turkey\" and 23 under \"Turkiye\" — same iso3, same years, identical values in all 23 years (assembly from two extractions; WB renamed Turkey→Türkiye). Handling: deduplicate on (iso3, year), keeping one row; since values are identical, the choice does not affect any number. Canonical name kept: \"Turkiye\" (current WB name, consistent with README's \"Türkiye\").\n2. **CHE 2007 empty** life_expectancy (row present, value missing). Handling: treated as missing, not imputed → CHE not in balanced set.\n3. **BGD, ETH, IND, NGA only 2011–2022** (12 rows each; 2000–2010 rows absent — narrower extraction). Handling: missing years; countries excluded from balanced set; included in the 2022 all-available baseline.\n- No exact duplicate rows; no other (iso3, year) duplicates; one name per iso3 apart from TUR.\n## Availability-rule check\nNo input violates the rules; nothing external is used. Missing values not imputed.\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P1: audit done; issues: TUR duplicate (identical values), CHE 2007 missing, 4 countries 2011-2022 only. Decision: dedupe on iso3-year keeping 'Turkiye'.\" >> out/state/log.md","description":"Write data audit"}}]}}43{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","id":"471cb61a-ecf7-4456-9718-00c93ecd1691","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:41.450Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"909038f326721571905963e4b04c2ebb9af43548301cd68e22d19a3ba7e05760","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"2304ea7f-a54a-44fd-b927-88fe4aca3165","keep":12,"tail":["3404a4cefe170b88a63bc9f5771e75ec5162a717454bceac626c694a4f393832","20c50d01095fdc553344883a17c3b3de7c8bc2d0af7251bd6c0b50e3c50d5102"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",13,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"7a734a59052a1a361e1da34fe30d68aa1626165ca8722a6d0deff26ebae7c714"}44{"parentUuid":"a5f836e6-6105-48b5-8798-994a93d71aa6","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXp8GrcLw1QqJK8BuTFb","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":904,"cache_read_input_tokens":11627,"output_tokens":902,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":26},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":904},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"thinkingDurationMs":398,"thinkingDisplay":"updates","apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXp8Gb12AJdg5HAvNB15","requestRef":"471cb61a-ecf7-4456-9718-00c93ecd1691","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"be408a99-9364-47eb-881f-282e8b07b8ec","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:42.639Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155/out/state","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}45{"parentUuid":"be408a99-9364-47eb-881f-282e8b07b8ec","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXp8GrcLw1QqJK8BuTFb","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_019Pd2f8BW2t2z3GwdCNBVPK","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cd /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155 && cat > out/state/data_audit.md <<'EOF'\n# Data audit — data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\n- SHA-256: b3f2f774ed6797034acf62853286ca37fc02334ba3ce70e745e4f3d5c533c3ac (matches bundle.json). data/README.md SHA-256 e9099d20…d0 (matches).\n- 440 lines = 1 header + 439 data rows; 4 columns: country_name (str), iso3 (str), year (int), life_expectancy (float, years, 3 dp). 23 rows have \"Korea, Rep.\" quoted (5 comma-separated fields raw, parsed correctly to 4 columns).\n- Years 2000–2022 (all 23 present). 20 distinct iso3; 21 distinct country_name.\n- Values: 438 non-missing, range 51.49–84.56 years — plausible.\n## Anomalies\n1. **TUR duplicated**: 46 rows, 23 under \"Turkey\" and 23 under \"Turkiye\" — same iso3, same years, identical values in all 23 years (assembly from two extractions; WB renamed Turkey→Türkiye). Handling: deduplicate on (iso3, year), keeping one row; since values are identical, the choice does not affect any number. Canonical name kept: \"Turkiye\" (current WB name, consistent with README's \"Türkiye\").\n2. **CHE 2007 empty** life_expectancy (row present, value missing). Handling: treated as missing, not imputed → CHE not in balanced set.\n3. **BGD, ETH, IND, NGA only 2011–2022** (12 rows each; 2000–2010 rows absent — narrower extraction). Handling: missing years; countries excluded from balanced set; included in the 2022 all-available baseline.\n- No exact duplicate rows; no other (iso3, year) duplicates; one name per iso3 apart from TUR.\n## Availability-rule check\nNo input violates the rules; nothing external is used. Missing values not imputed.\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P1: audit done; issues: TUR duplicate (identical values), CHE 2007 missing, 4 countries 2011-2022 only. Decision: dedupe on iso3-year keeping 'Turkiye'.\" >> out/state/log.md","description":"Write data audit and log entry"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":904,"cache_read_input_tokens":11627,"output_tokens":902,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":26},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":904},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXp8Gb12AJdg5HAvNB15","requestRef":"471cb61a-ecf7-4456-9718-00c93ecd1691","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"34fcc235-5246-4b0e-b333-6b42638a112a","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:48.287Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155/out/state","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}46{"parentUuid":"34fcc235-5246-4b0e-b333-6b42638a112a","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f88a509b-6d7e-4e71-bdfb-3f8bc401e9d8","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_019Pd2f8BW2t2z3GwdCNBVPK","type":"tool_result","content":"(Bash completed with no output)","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"edf3534a-866b-411f-81b3-c36ec5341bca","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:48.301Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"34fcc235-5246-4b0e-b333-6b42638a112a","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}47{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","hash":"2606aa958b587b79f7bddacc46486c7d8425ff0d0f7854a60de78aa98d019675","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_019Pd2f8BW2t2z3GwdCNBVPK","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cd /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155 && cat > out/state/data_audit.md <<'EOF'\n# Data audit — data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\n- SHA-256: b3f2f774ed6797034acf62853286ca37fc02334ba3ce70e745e4f3d5c533c3ac (matches bundle.json). data/README.md SHA-256 e9099d20…d0 (matches).\n- 440 lines = 1 header + 439 data rows; 4 columns: country_name (str), iso3 (str), year (int), life_expectancy (float, years, 3 dp). 23 rows have \"Korea, Rep.\" quoted (5 comma-separated fields raw, parsed correctly to 4 columns).\n- Years 2000–2022 (all 23 present). 20 distinct iso3; 21 distinct country_name.\n- Values: 438 non-missing, range 51.49–84.56 years — plausible.\n## Anomalies\n1. **TUR duplicated**: 46 rows, 23 under \"Turkey\" and 23 under \"Turkiye\" — same iso3, same years, identical values in all 23 years (assembly from two extractions; WB renamed Turkey→Türkiye). Handling: deduplicate on (iso3, year), keeping one row; since values are identical, the choice does not affect any number. Canonical name kept: \"Turkiye\" (current WB name, consistent with README's \"Türkiye\").\n2. **CHE 2007 empty** life_expectancy (row present, value missing). Handling: treated as missing, not imputed → CHE not in balanced set.\n3. **BGD, ETH, IND, NGA only 2011–2022** (12 rows each; 2000–2010 rows absent — narrower extraction). Handling: missing years; countries excluded from balanced set; included in the 2022 all-available baseline.\n- No exact duplicate rows; no other (iso3, year) duplicates; one name per iso3 apart from TUR.\n## Availability-rule check\nNo input violates the rules; nothing external is used. Missing values not imputed.\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P1: audit done; issues: TUR duplicate (identical values), CHE 2007 missing, 4 countries 2011-2022 only. Decision: dedupe on iso3-year keeping 'Turkiye'.\" >> out/state/log.md","description":"Write data audit and log entry"}}]}}48{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","id":"39a2974d-52af-4b42-b281-ceb72f33577f","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:48.305Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"909038f326721571905963e4b04c2ebb9af43548301cd68e22d19a3ba7e05760","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"471cb61a-ecf7-4456-9718-00c93ecd1691","keep":14,"tail":["2606aa958b587b79f7bddacc46486c7d8425ff0d0f7854a60de78aa98d019675","c8652413ad1e1ae835e0920f3011200b92b4bfd3a26f1125bb5b29a108df887d"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",15,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"979de8d3bda48b33b3edf98b78b248190bea27fd0994429cc20e28584035022c"}49{"parentUuid":"edf3534a-866b-411f-81b3-c36ec5341bca","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXp8n9114E9eGjfY8cLb","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Now the analysis script (baseline + balanced estimates together; baseline computed on deduplicated data)."}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":917,"cache_read_input_tokens":12531,"output_tokens":2478,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":0},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":917},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXp8mssKfjce3TAvDgfg","requestRef":"39a2974d-52af-4b42-b281-ceb72f33577f","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"0482e4ff-9a35-4afd-bd3b-326894dc2261","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:45:49.235Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}50{"parentUuid":"0482e4ff-9a35-4afd-bd3b-326894dc2261","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXp8n9114E9eGjfY8cLb","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01Vg832LCrmq8e6ZzCw9t4Rx","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/analysis.py <<'EOF'\n\"\"\"F1-conf-02: balanced-panel mean life expectancy 2000-2022.\nRun from workspace root: ~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py\nReads only data/; writes out/results.json, out/analytic.csv, out/exclusions.csv.\nNo randomness is used (random_seed = null).\"\"\"\nimport json, os\nimport pandas as pd\n\nDATA = \"data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\"\nOUT = \"out\"\nYEARS = list(range(2000, 2023))\nCANON_NAME = {\"TUR\": \"Turkiye\"}  # documented choice for the duplicated Turkey/Turkiye rows\n\nraw = pd.read_csv(DATA, dtype={\"country_name\": str, \"iso3\": str})\nn_raw = len(raw)\nledger, issues = [], []\n\ndef step(name, rule, before, after, why):\n    ledger.append(dict(step=name, rule=rule, n_before=before, n_after=after,\n                       n_removed=before - after, rationale=why))\n\n# --- detect duplicates on (iso3, year)\ndup = raw[raw.duplicated([\"iso3\", \"year\"], keep=False)]\nfor iso, g in dup.groupby(\"iso3\"):\n    conflicting = (g.groupby(\"year\")[\"life_expectancy\"].nunique(dropna=False) > 1).sum()\n    if conflicting:\n        raise SystemExit(f\"Conflicting duplicate values for {iso}: decision required\")\n    names = sorted(g.country_name.unique())\n    issues.append({\"issue\": f\"{iso} appears twice per year under names {names} \"\n                   f\"({len(g)} rows for {g.year.nunique()} years; values identical in every year) - \"\n                   \"assembly error from the two extractions\",\n                   \"handling\": f\"deduplicated on (iso3, year), keeping one row per year; \"\n                   f\"country_name standardised to '{CANON_NAME.get(iso, names[-1])}'; values unaffected\"})\nd = raw.copy()\nd[\"country_name\"] = d.apply(lambda r: CANON_NAME.get(r.iso3, r.country_name), axis=1)\nd = d.sort_values([\"iso3\", \"year\"]).drop_duplicates([\"iso3\", \"year\"], keep=\"first\")\nstep(\"1_dedup\", \"keep one row per (iso3, year); duplicates had identical values\",\n     n_raw, len(d), \"country identified by iso3; at most one observation per country-year\")\n\n# --- missing values\nmiss = d[d.life_expectancy.isna()]\nfor _, r in miss.iterrows():\n    issues.append({\"issue\": f\"{r.iso3} {int(r.year)}: empty life_expectancy cell\",\n                   \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set\"})\nd_obs = d.dropna(subset=[\"life_expectancy\"])\nstep(\"2_drop_missing\", \"drop country-years with empty life_expectancy\", len(d), len(d_obs),\n     \"empty cell = no recorded value; no imputation allowed\")\n\n# --- countries with absent years\ncov = d_obs.groupby(\"iso3\")[\"year\"].apply(lambda s: sorted(set(s)))\nfor iso, ys in cov.items():\n    absent_rows = sorted(set(YEARS) - set(d.loc[d.iso3 == iso, \"year\"]))\n    if absent_rows:\n        issues.append({\"issue\": f\"{iso}: no rows at all for years {absent_rows[0]}-{absent_rows[-1]} \"\n                       f\"({len(absent_rows)} years; coverage only {min(ys)}-{max(ys)})\",\n                       \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set, \"\n                       \"kept in the 2022 all-available baseline\"})\n\nbalanced = sorted(iso for iso, ys in cov.items() if set(YEARS) <= set(ys))\nan = d_obs[d_obs.iso3.isin(balanced) & d_obs.year.isin(YEARS)]\nstep(\"3_balanced\", \"keep countries with a recorded value in every year 2000-2022\", len(d_obs), len(an),\n     \"balanced-panel estimand: fixed composition across years\")\nan = an[[\"iso3\", \"country_name\", \"year\", \"life_expectancy\"]].sort_values([\"iso3\", \"year\"]).reset_index(drop=True)\nassert len(an) == len(balanced) * len(YEARS)\nassert not an.duplicated([\"iso3\", \"year\"]).any()\n\n# --- estimates\nymean = an.groupby(\"year\")[\"life_expectancy\"].mean()\nm00, m22 = float(ymean[2000]), float(ymean[2022])\nbase = d_obs[d_obs.year == 2022]\nassert base.iso3.is_unique\nm22_all = float(base.life_expectancy.mean())\n\nn_tot = int(d.iso3.nunique())\nres = {\n    \"task_id\": \"F1-conf-02\",\n    \"n_countries_total\": n_tot,\n    \"n_countries_balanced\": len(balanced),\n    \"n_countries_incomplete\": n_tot - len(balanced),\n    \"balanced_countries\": balanced,\n    \"n_analysed\": int(len(an)),\n    \"mean_2000_balanced\": round(m00, 6),\n    \"mean_2022_balanced\": round(m22, 6),\n    \"change_2000_2022_balanced\": round(m22 - m00, 6),\n    \"mean_2022_all_available\": round(m22_all, 6),\n    \"n_countries_2022_all_available\": int(base.iso3.nunique()),\n    \"incomplete_countries\": sorted(set(d.iso3) - set(balanced)),\n    \"balanced_mean_by_year\": {str(y): round(float(v), 6) for y, v in ymean.items()},\n    \"feasibility\": \"complete\",\n    \"feasibility_reason\": None,\n    \"data_issues\": issues,\n    \"n_input_rows\": {\"life_expectancy_panel.csv\": int(n_raw)},\n    \"random_seed\": None,\n}\nos.makedirs(OUT, exist_ok=True)\nan.to_csv(f\"{OUT}/analytic.csv\", index=False, float_format=\"%.3f\")\npd.DataFrame(ledger).to_csv(f\"{OUT}/exclusions.csv\", index=False)\nwith open(f\"{OUT}/results.json\", \"w\") as f:\n    json.dump(res, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False)\nprint(f\"balanced countries: {len(balanced)} {balanced}\")\nprint(f\"mean 2000 = {res['mean_2000_balanced']}, mean 2022 = {res['mean_2022_balanced']}, \"\n      f\"change = {res['change_2000_2022_balanced']}; 2022 all-available = {res['mean_2022_all_available']}\")\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py && cat out/results.json out/exclusions.csv && head -3 out/analytic.csv","description":"Write and run analysis script"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":917,"cache_read_input_tokens":12531,"output_tokens":2478,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":0},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":917},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXp8mssKfjce3TAvDgfg","requestRef":"39a2974d-52af-4b42-b281-ceb72f33577f","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"4709871c-0aa2-4576-878e-60b58915f22c","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:07.303Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}51{"parentUuid":"4709871c-0aa2-4576-878e-60b58915f22c","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f88a509b-6d7e-4e71-bdfb-3f8bc401e9d8","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01Vg832LCrmq8e6ZzCw9t4Rx","type":"tool_result","content":"balanced countries: 15 ['AUS', 'AUT', 'BEL', 'CAN', 'DEU', 'ESP', 'FRA', 'GBR', 'ITA', 'JPN', 'KOR', 'NLD', 'SWE', 'TUR', 'USA']\nmean 2000 = 78.060267, mean 2022 = 81.553067, change = 3.4928; 2022 all-available = 78.692\n{\n  \"task_id\": \"F1-conf-02\",\n  \"n_countries_total\": 20,\n  \"n_countries_balanced\": 15,\n  \"n_countries_incomplete\": 5,\n  \"balanced_countries\": [\n    \"AUS\",\n    \"AUT\",\n    \"BEL\",\n    \"CAN\",\n    \"DEU\",\n    \"ESP\",\n    \"FRA\",\n    \"GBR\",\n    \"ITA\",\n    \"JPN\",\n    \"KOR\",\n    \"NLD\",\n    \"SWE\",\n    \"TUR\",\n    \"USA\"\n  ],\n  \"n_analysed\": 345,\n  \"mean_2000_balanced\": 78.060267,\n  \"mean_2022_balanced\": 81.553067,\n  \"change_2000_2022_balanced\": 3.4928,\n  \"mean_2022_all_available\": 78.692,\n  \"n_countries_2022_all_available\": 20,\n  \"incomplete_countries\": [\n    \"BGD\",\n    \"CHE\",\n    \"ETH\",\n    \"IND\",\n    \"NGA\"\n  ],\n  \"balanced_mean_by_year\": {\n    \"2000\": 78.060267,\n    \"2001\": 78.3652,\n    \"2002\": 78.5194,\n    \"2003\": 78.651,\n    \"2004\": 79.118667,\n    \"2005\": 79.2918,\n    \"2006\": 79.671467,\n    \"2007\": 79.9296,\n    \"2008\": 80.088,\n    \"2009\": 80.350667,\n    \"2010\": 80.541,\n    \"2011\": 80.849533,\n    \"2012\": 80.941933,\n    \"2013\": 81.191867,\n    \"2014\": 81.524,\n    \"2015\": 81.3644,\n    \"2016\": 81.6016,\n    \"2017\": 81.664867,\n    \"2018\": 81.783067,\n    \"2019\": 82.0732,\n    \"2020\": 81.320067,\n    \"2021\": 81.447067,\n    \"2022\": 81.553067\n  },\n  \"feasibility\": \"complete\",\n  \"feasibility_reason\": null,\n  \"data_issues\": [\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"TUR appears twice per year under names ['Turkey', 'Turkiye'] (46 rows for 23 years; values identical in every year) - assembly error from the two extractions\",\n      \"handling\": \"deduplicated on (iso3, year), keeping one row per year; country_name standardised to 'Turkiye'; values unaffected\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"CHE 2007: empty life_expectancy cell\",\n      \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"BGD: no rows at all for years 2000-2010 (11 years; coverage only 2011-2022)\",\n      \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set, kept in the 2022 all-available baseline\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"ETH: no rows at all for years 2000-2010 (11 years; coverage only 2011-2022)\",\n      \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set, kept in the 2022 all-available baseline\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"IND: no rows at all for years 2000-2010 (11 years; coverage only 2011-2022)\",\n      \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set, kept in the 2022 all-available baseline\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"NGA: no rows at all for years 2000-2010 (11 years; coverage only 2011-2022)\",\n      \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set, kept in the 2022 all-available baseline\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"n_input_rows\": {\n    \"life_expectancy_panel.csv\": 439\n  },\n  \"random_seed\": null\n}step,rule,n_before,n_after,n_removed,rationale\n1_dedup,\"keep one row per (iso3, year); duplicates had identical values\",439,416,23,country identified by iso3; at most one observation per country-year\n2_drop_missing,drop country-years with empty life_expectancy,416,415,1,empty cell = no recorded value; no imputation allowed\n3_balanced,keep countries with a recorded value in every year 2000-2022,415,345,70,balanced-panel estimand: fixed composition across years\niso3,country_name,year,life_expectancy\nAUS,Australia,2000,79.234\nAUS,Australia,2001,79.634","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"a43a4fe6-5b9c-4809-acd5-c4c69c52cf38","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:07.550Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"balanced countries: 15 ['AUS', 'AUT', 'BEL', 'CAN', 'DEU', 'ESP', 'FRA', 'GBR', 'ITA', 'JPN', 'KOR', 'NLD', 'SWE', 'TUR', 'USA']\nmean 2000 = 78.060267, mean 2022 = 81.553067, change = 3.4928; 2022 all-available = 78.692\n{\n  \"task_id\": \"F1-conf-02\",\n  \"n_countries_total\": 20,\n  \"n_countries_balanced\": 15,\n  \"n_countries_incomplete\": 5,\n  \"balanced_countries\": [\n    \"AUS\",\n    \"AUT\",\n    \"BEL\",\n    \"CAN\",\n    \"DEU\",\n    \"ESP\",\n    \"FRA\",\n    \"GBR\",\n    \"ITA\",\n    \"JPN\",\n    \"KOR\",\n    \"NLD\",\n    \"SWE\",\n    \"TUR\",\n    \"USA\"\n  ],\n  \"n_analysed\": 345,\n  \"mean_2000_balanced\": 78.060267,\n  \"mean_2022_balanced\": 81.553067,\n  \"change_2000_2022_balanced\": 3.4928,\n  \"mean_2022_all_available\": 78.692,\n  \"n_countries_2022_all_available\": 20,\n  \"incomplete_countries\": [\n    \"BGD\",\n    \"CHE\",\n    \"ETH\",\n    \"IND\",\n    \"NGA\"\n  ],\n  \"balanced_mean_by_year\": {\n    \"2000\": 78.060267,\n    \"2001\": 78.3652,\n    \"2002\": 78.5194,\n    \"2003\": 78.651,\n    \"2004\": 79.118667,\n    \"2005\": 79.2918,\n    \"2006\": 79.671467,\n    \"2007\": 79.9296,\n    \"2008\": 80.088,\n    \"2009\": 80.350667,\n    \"2010\": 80.541,\n    \"2011\": 80.849533,\n    \"2012\": 80.941933,\n    \"2013\": 81.191867,\n    \"2014\": 81.524,\n    \"2015\": 81.3644,\n    \"2016\": 81.6016,\n    \"2017\": 81.664867,\n    \"2018\": 81.783067,\n    \"2019\": 82.0732,\n    \"2020\": 81.320067,\n    \"2021\": 81.447067,\n    \"2022\": 81.553067\n  },\n  \"feasibility\": \"complete\",\n  \"feasibility_reason\": null,\n  \"data_issues\": [\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"TUR appears twice per year under names ['Turkey', 'Turkiye'] (46 rows for 23 years; values identical in every year) - assembly error from the two extractions\",\n      \"handling\": \"deduplicated on (iso3, year), keeping one row per year; country_name standardised to 'Turkiye'; values unaffected\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"CHE 2007: empty life_expectancy cell\",\n      \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"BGD: no rows at all for years 2000-2010 (11 years; coverage only 2011-2022)\",\n      \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set, kept in the 2022 all-available baseline\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"ETH: no rows at all for years 2000-2010 (11 years; coverage only 2011-2022)\",\n      \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set, kept in the 2022 all-available baseline\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"IND: no rows at all for years 2000-2010 (11 years; coverage only 2011-2022)\",\n      \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set, kept in the 2022 all-available baseline\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"issue\": \"NGA: no rows at all for years 2000-2010 (11 years; coverage only 2011-2022)\",\n      \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set, kept in the 2022 all-available baseline\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"n_input_rows\": {\n    \"life_expectancy_panel.csv\": 439\n  },\n  \"random_seed\": null\n}step,rule,n_before,n_after,n_removed,rationale\n1_dedup,\"keep one row per (iso3, year); duplicates had identical values\",439,416,23,country identified by iso3; at most one observation per country-year\n2_drop_missing,drop country-years with empty life_expectancy,416,415,1,empty cell = no recorded value; no imputation allowed\n3_balanced,keep countries with a recorded value in every year 2000-2022,415,345,70,balanced-panel estimand: fixed composition across years\niso3,country_name,year,life_expectancy\nAUS,Australia,2000,79.234\nAUS,Australia,2001,79.634","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"4709871c-0aa2-4576-878e-60b58915f22c","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}52{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","hash":"bb5790a0414964e8f9687a7f6bbe0e47d86a29afa8c3acf673ccb5604601279f","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Now the analysis script (baseline + balanced estimates together; baseline computed on deduplicated data)."},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01Vg832LCrmq8e6ZzCw9t4Rx","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/analysis.py <<'EOF'\n\"\"\"F1-conf-02: balanced-panel mean life expectancy 2000-2022.\nRun from workspace root: ~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py\nReads only data/; writes out/results.json, out/analytic.csv, out/exclusions.csv.\nNo randomness is used (random_seed = null).\"\"\"\nimport json, os\nimport pandas as pd\n\nDATA = \"data/life_expectancy_panel.csv\"\nOUT = \"out\"\nYEARS = list(range(2000, 2023))\nCANON_NAME = {\"TUR\": \"Turkiye\"}  # documented choice for the duplicated Turkey/Turkiye rows\n\nraw = pd.read_csv(DATA, dtype={\"country_name\": str, \"iso3\": str})\nn_raw = len(raw)\nledger, issues = [], []\n\ndef step(name, rule, before, after, why):\n    ledger.append(dict(step=name, rule=rule, n_before=before, n_after=after,\n                       n_removed=before - after, rationale=why))\n\n# --- detect duplicates on (iso3, year)\ndup = raw[raw.duplicated([\"iso3\", \"year\"], keep=False)]\nfor iso, g in dup.groupby(\"iso3\"):\n    conflicting = (g.groupby(\"year\")[\"life_expectancy\"].nunique(dropna=False) > 1).sum()\n    if conflicting:\n        raise SystemExit(f\"Conflicting duplicate values for {iso}: decision required\")\n    names = sorted(g.country_name.unique())\n    issues.append({\"issue\": f\"{iso} appears twice per year under names {names} \"\n                   f\"({len(g)} rows for {g.year.nunique()} years; values identical in every year) - \"\n                   \"assembly error from the two extractions\",\n                   \"handling\": f\"deduplicated on (iso3, year), keeping one row per year; \"\n                   f\"country_name standardised to '{CANON_NAME.get(iso, names[-1])}'; values unaffected\"})\nd = raw.copy()\nd[\"country_name\"] = d.apply(lambda r: CANON_NAME.get(r.iso3, r.country_name), axis=1)\nd = d.sort_values([\"iso3\", \"year\"]).drop_duplicates([\"iso3\", \"year\"], keep=\"first\")\nstep(\"1_dedup\", \"keep one row per (iso3, year); duplicates had identical values\",\n     n_raw, len(d), \"country identified by iso3; at most one observation per country-year\")\n\n# --- missing values\nmiss = d[d.life_expectancy.isna()]\nfor _, r in miss.iterrows():\n    issues.append({\"issue\": f\"{r.iso3} {int(r.year)}: empty life_expectancy cell\",\n                   \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set\"})\nd_obs = d.dropna(subset=[\"life_expectancy\"])\nstep(\"2_drop_missing\", \"drop country-years with empty life_expectancy\", len(d), len(d_obs),\n     \"empty cell = no recorded value; no imputation allowed\")\n\n# --- countries with absent years\ncov = d_obs.groupby(\"iso3\")[\"year\"].apply(lambda s: sorted(set(s)))\nfor iso, ys in cov.items():\n    absent_rows = sorted(set(YEARS) - set(d.loc[d.iso3 == iso, \"year\"]))\n    if absent_rows:\n        issues.append({\"issue\": f\"{iso}: no rows at all for years {absent_rows[0]}-{absent_rows[-1]} \"\n                       f\"({len(absent_rows)} years; coverage only {min(ys)}-{max(ys)})\",\n                       \"handling\": \"treated as missing (no imputation); country excluded from balanced set, \"\n                       \"kept in the 2022 all-available baseline\"})\n\nbalanced = sorted(iso for iso, ys in cov.items() if set(YEARS) <= set(ys))\nan = d_obs[d_obs.iso3.isin(balanced) & d_obs.year.isin(YEARS)]\nstep(\"3_balanced\", \"keep countries with a recorded value in every year 2000-2022\", len(d_obs), len(an),\n     \"balanced-panel estimand: fixed composition across years\")\nan = an[[\"iso3\", \"country_name\", \"year\", \"life_expectancy\"]].sort_values([\"iso3\", \"year\"]).reset_index(drop=True)\nassert len(an) == len(balanced) * len(YEARS)\nassert not an.duplicated([\"iso3\", \"year\"]).any()\n\n# --- estimates\nymean = an.groupby(\"year\")[\"life_expectancy\"].mean()\nm00, m22 = float(ymean[2000]), float(ymean[2022])\nbase = d_obs[d_obs.year == 2022]\nassert base.iso3.is_unique\nm22_all = float(base.life_expectancy.mean())\n\nn_tot = int(d.iso3.nunique())\nres = {\n    \"task_id\": \"F1-conf-02\",\n    \"n_countries_total\": n_tot,\n    \"n_countries_balanced\": len(balanced),\n    \"n_countries_incomplete\": n_tot - len(balanced),\n    \"balanced_countries\": balanced,\n    \"n_analysed\": int(len(an)),\n    \"mean_2000_balanced\": round(m00, 6),\n    \"mean_2022_balanced\": round(m22, 6),\n    \"change_2000_2022_balanced\": round(m22 - m00, 6),\n    \"mean_2022_all_available\": round(m22_all, 6),\n    \"n_countries_2022_all_available\": int(base.iso3.nunique()),\n    \"incomplete_countries\": sorted(set(d.iso3) - set(balanced)),\n    \"balanced_mean_by_year\": {str(y): round(float(v), 6) for y, v in ymean.items()},\n    \"feasibility\": \"complete\",\n    \"feasibility_reason\": None,\n    \"data_issues\": issues,\n    \"n_input_rows\": {\"life_expectancy_panel.csv\": int(n_raw)},\n    \"random_seed\": None,\n}\nos.makedirs(OUT, exist_ok=True)\nan.to_csv(f\"{OUT}/analytic.csv\", index=False, float_format=\"%.3f\")\npd.DataFrame(ledger).to_csv(f\"{OUT}/exclusions.csv\", index=False)\nwith open(f\"{OUT}/results.json\", \"w\") as f:\n    json.dump(res, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False)\nprint(f\"balanced countries: {len(balanced)} {balanced}\")\nprint(f\"mean 2000 = {res['mean_2000_balanced']}, mean 2022 = {res['mean_2022_balanced']}, \"\n      f\"change = {res['change_2000_2022_balanced']}; 2022 all-available = {res['mean_2022_all_available']}\")\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py && cat out/results.json out/exclusions.csv && head -3 out/analytic.csv","description":"Write and run analysis script"}}]}}53{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","id":"64461b14-72a1-4381-938a-c6eb670da34f","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:07.553Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"909038f326721571905963e4b04c2ebb9af43548301cd68e22d19a3ba7e05760","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"39a2974d-52af-4b42-b281-ceb72f33577f","keep":16,"tail":["bb5790a0414964e8f9687a7f6bbe0e47d86a29afa8c3acf673ccb5604601279f","f7724b793d0b504a5a4b93a60a0f6d1cc9b68d1a279175494796fcf71c5a5683"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",17,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"b8ad36f56f6d66dcf3af1d0e98afab71ae9a2e3ec945a12d85046f4ab84685a8"}54{"type":"last-prompt","lastPrompt":"Begin","leafUuid":"a43a4fe6-5b9c-4809-acd5-c4c69c52cf38","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca"}55{"type":"atis-latch","atis":"","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca"}56{"parentUuid":"a43a4fe6-5b9c-4809-acd5-c4c69c52cf38","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXpACUzuNJicLW57t5XP","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":4067,"cache_read_input_tokens":13448,"output_tokens":1042,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":125},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":4067},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"thinkingDurationMs":1084,"thinkingDisplay":"updates","apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXpACD8X3zFvfMX3AAVs","requestRef":"64461b14-72a1-4381-938a-c6eb670da34f","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"0e52b601-4b2f-44cb-b4fe-1acae15a0821","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:09.785Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}57{"parentUuid":"0e52b601-4b2f-44cb-b4fe-1acae15a0821","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXpACUzuNJicLW57t5XP","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01FeymDQKgubznfX4quaWncc","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cp out/results.json /tmp/r1.json; md5 -q out/analytic.csv out/exclusions.csv > /tmp/h1; rm out/results.json out/analytic.csv out/exclusions.csv; ~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py >/dev/null; cmp /tmp/r1.json out/results.json && echo RESULTS_IDENTICAL; md5 -q out/analytic.csv out/exclusions.csv | diff - /tmp/h1 && echo CSV_IDENTICAL\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python -c \"\nimport pandas as pd, json, numpy as np\nr=json.load(open('out/results.json')); a=pd.read_csv('out/analytic.csv'); e=pd.read_csv('out/exclusions.csv')\nraw=pd.read_csv('data/life_expectancy_panel.csv')\n# independent recompute via pivot\np=raw.drop_duplicates(['iso3','year']).pivot(index='iso3',columns='year',values='life_expectancy').reindex(columns=range(2000,2023))\nb=p.dropna()\nprint('indep balanced', sorted(b.index)==r['balanced_countries'], abs(b[2000].mean()-r['mean_2000_balanced'])<1e-6, abs(b[2022].mean()-r['mean_2022_balanced'])<1e-6, abs(p[2022].mean()-r['mean_2022_all_available'])<1e-6)\nprint('change identity', abs(r['mean_2022_balanced']-r['mean_2000_balanced']-r['change_2000_2022_balanced'])<1e-9)\nprint('n_analysed', len(a)==r['n_analysed']==15*23, a.duplicated(['iso3','year']).sum()==0, a.life_expectancy.isna().sum()==0)\nprint('ledger', (e.n_before-e.n_removed==e.n_after).all(), (e.n_before.iloc[1:].values==e.n_after.iloc[:-1].values).all(), e.n_before.iloc[0]==439, e.n_after.iloc[-1]==r['n_analysed'])\nprint('counts', r['n_countries_balanced']+r['n_countries_incomplete']==r['n_countries_total'])\nprint('naive raw 2022 incl TUR twice', raw[raw.year==2022].life_expectancy.mean())\nprint('balanced 2022 within range', b[2022].min(), b[2022].max())\n\"","description":"Reproducibility and consistency checks"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":4067,"cache_read_input_tokens":13448,"output_tokens":1042,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":125},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":4067},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXpACD8X3zFvfMX3AAVs","requestRef":"64461b14-72a1-4381-938a-c6eb670da34f","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"181c7ca5-a177-48c0-9dc9-94da7943d5de","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:16.058Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}58{"parentUuid":"181c7ca5-a177-48c0-9dc9-94da7943d5de","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f88a509b-6d7e-4e71-bdfb-3f8bc401e9d8","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01FeymDQKgubznfX4quaWncc","type":"tool_result","content":"RESULTS_IDENTICAL\nCSV_IDENTICAL\nindep balanced True True True True\nchange identity True\nn_analysed True True True\nledger True True True True\ncounts True\nnaive raw 2022 incl TUR twice 78.63957142857141\nbalanced 2022 within range 77.434 83.996","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"1a1f53a9-8733-4ffa-99c7-7b3cc9898589","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:16.588Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"RESULTS_IDENTICAL\nCSV_IDENTICAL\nindep balanced True True True True\nchange identity True\nn_analysed True True True\nledger True True True True\ncounts True\nnaive raw 2022 incl TUR twice 78.63957142857141\nbalanced 2022 within range 77.434 83.996","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"181c7ca5-a177-48c0-9dc9-94da7943d5de","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}59{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","hash":"9ad710370eea87f3e96f5f3c597cc49e01a286ac596103ec5b779d926d4842fc","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01FeymDQKgubznfX4quaWncc","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cp out/results.json /tmp/r1.json; md5 -q out/analytic.csv out/exclusions.csv > /tmp/h1; rm out/results.json out/analytic.csv out/exclusions.csv; ~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py >/dev/null; cmp /tmp/r1.json out/results.json && echo RESULTS_IDENTICAL; md5 -q out/analytic.csv out/exclusions.csv | diff - /tmp/h1 && echo CSV_IDENTICAL\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python -c \"\nimport pandas as pd, json, numpy as np\nr=json.load(open('out/results.json')); a=pd.read_csv('out/analytic.csv'); e=pd.read_csv('out/exclusions.csv')\nraw=pd.read_csv('data/life_expectancy_panel.csv')\n# independent recompute via pivot\np=raw.drop_duplicates(['iso3','year']).pivot(index='iso3',columns='year',values='life_expectancy').reindex(columns=range(2000,2023))\nb=p.dropna()\nprint('indep balanced', sorted(b.index)==r['balanced_countries'], abs(b[2000].mean()-r['mean_2000_balanced'])<1e-6, abs(b[2022].mean()-r['mean_2022_balanced'])<1e-6, abs(p[2022].mean()-r['mean_2022_all_available'])<1e-6)\nprint('change identity', abs(r['mean_2022_balanced']-r['mean_2000_balanced']-r['change_2000_2022_balanced'])<1e-9)\nprint('n_analysed', len(a)==r['n_analysed']==15*23, a.duplicated(['iso3','year']).sum()==0, a.life_expectancy.isna().sum()==0)\nprint('ledger', (e.n_before-e.n_removed==e.n_after).all(), (e.n_before.iloc[1:].values==e.n_after.iloc[:-1].values).all(), e.n_before.iloc[0]==439, e.n_after.iloc[-1]==r['n_analysed'])\nprint('counts', r['n_countries_balanced']+r['n_countries_incomplete']==r['n_countries_total'])\nprint('naive raw 2022 incl TUR twice', raw[raw.year==2022].life_expectancy.mean())\nprint('balanced 2022 within range', b[2022].min(), b[2022].max())\n\"","description":"Reproducibility and consistency 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> out/state/checks.md <<'EOF'\n# Verification checks (P4) — all PASS\n1. Clean re-run: deleted results.json, analytic.csv, exclusions.csv; re-ran analysis.py; results.json byte-identical, CSVs identical (md5). PASS\n2. Independent recomputation (pivot of iso3×year after dedup, dropna rows): same balanced set, mean_2000_balanced, mean_2022_balanced, mean_2022_all_available (|diff|<1e-6). PASS\n3. change_2000_2022_balanced = mean_2022_balanced − mean_2000_balanced. PASS\n4. n_analysed = 345 = 15 countries × 23 years = rows of analytic.csv; no duplicate (iso3, year); no missing values. PASS\n5. Exclusion ledger: n_before − n_removed = n_after each row; chained; starts at 439 (= n_input_rows), ends at 345 (= n_analysed). 439 − (23+1+70) = 345. PASS\n6. n_countries_balanced + n_countries_incomplete = n_countries_total (15+5=20). PASS\n7. Magnitudes: balanced means within observed range (2022: 77.43–84.00); baseline 2022 (78.692) below balanced 2022 (81.553), as expected since the baseline adds four lower-LE countries (BGD, ETH, IND, NGA) plus CHE. PASS\n8. Sensitivity note: naive 2022 mean on raw rows (TUR counted twice) = 78.6396 ≠ 78.692 — confirms dedup matters for the baseline. Informational.\n9. No standard errors / CIs produced (descriptive estimand, no sampling model) — nothing to check.\nEOF\ncd out/state && ~/wp29/venv/bin/python - <<'EOF'\nimport json\np=json.load(open('phases.json'))\np['P1']={\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"SHA-256 computed and matches bundle.json\",\"schema/rows/cols/years/missing/duplicates inspected\",\"exclusions ledger produced and sums verified\"],\"notes\":\"TUR duplicates, CHE 2007 missing, 4 countries 2011-2022 only\"}\np['P2']={\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"mean_2022_all_available computed over 20 distinct iso3 (deduplicated) = 78.692\"],\"notes\":\"\"}\np['P3']={\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"analysis.py reads only data/, deterministic, no RNG (random_seed null)\"],\"notes\":\"\"}\np['P4']={\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"clean re-run byte-identical results.json and CSVs\",\"independent recompute matches\",\"identities and ledger sums verified (see checks.md)\"],\"notes\":\"\"}\np['P5']={\"status\":\"running\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"}\njson.dump(p,open('phases.json','w'),indent=1)\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P2/P3 passed: analysis.py written and run. P4 passed: all checks in checks.md.\" >> log.md","description":"Record checks and update phase ledger"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":1150,"cache_read_input_tokens":17515,"output_tokens":1151,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":38},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":1150},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXpArr5YN6HYAFZVvbVh","requestRef":"43aeceab-cfda-4da1-b9fc-c8cd87e17ca2","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"78280d09-ee0e-4081-8fd7-07971bc82409","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:26.977Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}63{"parentUuid":"78280d09-ee0e-4081-8fd7-07971bc82409","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f88a509b-6d7e-4e71-bdfb-3f8bc401e9d8","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_017yzhnXoPgjTeA3aFedusAc","type":"tool_result","content":"(Bash completed with no output)","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"21e6af9a-83a3-46ae-a682-7acd1209bf48","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:27.014Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"78280d09-ee0e-4081-8fd7-07971bc82409","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155/out/state","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}64{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","hash":"7d3d149138ba04fa0d6a4b5a86737a8b2709789b8e4f58c09eed7c996913d727","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_017yzhnXoPgjTeA3aFedusAc","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/state/checks.md <<'EOF'\n# Verification checks (P4) — all PASS\n1. Clean re-run: deleted results.json, analytic.csv, exclusions.csv; re-ran analysis.py; results.json byte-identical, CSVs identical (md5). PASS\n2. Independent recomputation (pivot of iso3×year after dedup, dropna rows): same balanced set, mean_2000_balanced, mean_2022_balanced, mean_2022_all_available (|diff|<1e-6). PASS\n3. change_2000_2022_balanced = mean_2022_balanced − mean_2000_balanced. PASS\n4. n_analysed = 345 = 15 countries × 23 years = rows of analytic.csv; no duplicate (iso3, year); no missing values. PASS\n5. Exclusion ledger: n_before − n_removed = n_after each row; chained; starts at 439 (= n_input_rows), ends at 345 (= n_analysed). 439 − (23+1+70) = 345. PASS\n6. n_countries_balanced + n_countries_incomplete = n_countries_total (15+5=20). PASS\n7. Magnitudes: balanced means within observed range (2022: 77.43–84.00); baseline 2022 (78.692) below balanced 2022 (81.553), as expected since the baseline adds four lower-LE countries (BGD, ETH, IND, NGA) plus CHE. PASS\n8. Sensitivity note: naive 2022 mean on raw rows (TUR counted twice) = 78.6396 ≠ 78.692 — confirms dedup matters for the baseline. Informational.\n9. No standard errors / CIs produced (descriptive estimand, no sampling model) — nothing to check.\nEOF\ncd out/state && ~/wp29/venv/bin/python - <<'EOF'\nimport json\np=json.load(open('phases.json'))\np['P1']={\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"SHA-256 computed and matches bundle.json\",\"schema/rows/cols/years/missing/duplicates inspected\",\"exclusions ledger produced and sums verified\"],\"notes\":\"TUR duplicates, CHE 2007 missing, 4 countries 2011-2022 only\"}\np['P2']={\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"mean_2022_all_available computed over 20 distinct iso3 (deduplicated) = 78.692\"],\"notes\":\"\"}\np['P3']={\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"analysis.py reads only data/, deterministic, no RNG (random_seed null)\"],\"notes\":\"\"}\np['P4']={\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"clean re-run byte-identical results.json and CSVs\",\"independent recompute matches\",\"identities and ledger sums verified (see checks.md)\"],\"notes\":\"\"}\np['P5']={\"status\":\"running\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"}\njson.dump(p,open('phases.json','w'),indent=1)\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P2/P3 passed: analysis.py written and run. 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The estimand is the unweighted mean over the countries (by iso3) that have a recorded value in every year from 2000 to 2022, each counted once. A naive 2022 mean over all countries with a 2022 value is reported only as a descriptive baseline.\n\n## Data and exclusions\n- Input: `data/life_expectancy_panel.csv`, 439 data rows (`n_input_rows`), 20 distinct iso3 codes (`n_countries_total`). Full audit is in `out/state/data_audit.md`.\n- Data problems found (`data_issues`):\n  1. TUR appears twice for every year, once as \"Turkey\" and once as \"Turkiye\" (46 rows). The values are identical in every year. This came from assembling two extractions. I kept one row per (iso3, year) and used the name \"Turkiye\". Because the values match, no estimate depends on which row was kept.\n  2. CHE 2007 has an empty value. I treated it as missing and did not impute it, so CHE is not in the balanced set.\n  3. BGD, ETH, IND and NGA have no rows for 2000–2010, only 2011–2022. Those years are missing, so these countries are not in the balanced set. They are still included in the 2022 baseline.\n- Exclusion ledger (`out/exclusions.csv`): 439 rows → 416 after removing the duplicates (−23) → 415 after dropping the empty value (−1) → 345 after keeping only balanced countries (−70) = `n_analysed`.\n- Balanced set (`balanced_countries`, `n_countries_balanced` = 15): AUS, AUT, BEL, CAN, DEU, ESP, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, KOR, NLD, SWE, TUR, USA. Incomplete countries (`n_countries_incomplete` = 5; `incomplete_countries`): BGD, CHE, ETH, IND, NGA.\n\n## Method\nAfter removing duplicate rows, a country is in the balanced set if it has a non-missing value in all 23 years from 2000 to 2022. For each year, the estimate is the simple mean over these 15 countries (`balanced_mean_by_year`). The change is the 2022 mean minus the 2000 mean. The baseline is the simple mean of the 2022 values over all distinct iso3 codes that have a 2022 value; all 20 countries do (`n_countries_2022_all_available`). Nothing was imputed and no randomness was used (`random_seed` = null). `out/analysis.py` regenerates every output.\n\n## Results\n- Balanced-panel mean in 2000: **78.060 years** (`mean_2000_balanced`).\n- Balanced-panel mean in 2022: **81.553 years** (`mean_2022_balanced`).\n- Change from 2000 to 2022: **+3.493 years** (`change_2000_2022_balanced`).\n- Baseline mean over all 20 countries with a 2022 value: **78.692 years** (`mean_2022_all_available`). It is 2.86 years below the balanced 2022 mean because it adds four lower-life-expectancy countries (BGD, ETH, IND, NGA) and CHE. It describes a different set of countries and is not the estimand.\n- The yearly balanced means (`balanced_mean_by_year`) rise from 2000 to 82.073 in 2019, fall to 81.320 in 2020, and have not regained the 2019 level by 2022.\n- Status: `feasibility` = \"complete\".\n\n## Uncertainty\nThe estimands are descriptive means over a fixed, fully observed set of countries, so no sampling-based standard errors or confidence intervals are reported. The remaining uncertainty is in the WDI estimates themselves (modelled values that are revised between releases) and in the assembly of the file. That uncertainty is not quantified here. Values are rounded to 3 decimals in the source.\n\n## Limitations and open issues\n- The balanced set is all high- or upper-middle-income countries (15 of 20). It leaves out the four lower-income countries and Switzerland, so the result does not represent all 20 countries.\n- CHE is excluded because of a single missing year (2007). That follows the definition of the estimand, but it may well be an assembly artefact. Under the no-imputation rule I did not recover the value.\n- The means are unweighted by country, not weighted by population.\n- The choice of name for TUR (\"Turkiye\" rather than \"Turkey\") is a labelling decision only.\nEOF\ncat > out/claims.json <<'EOF'\n[\n {\"id\":\"C1\",\"text\":\"15 of the 20 countries have a recorded life expectancy in every year 2000-2022 (AUS, AUT, BEL, CAN, DEU, ESP, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, KOR, NLD, SWE, TUR, USA); 5 are incomplete (BGD, CHE, ETH, IND, NGA).\",\"results_keys\":[\"n_countries_total\",\"n_countries_balanced\",\"n_countries_incomplete\",\"balanced_countries\",\"incomplete_countries\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"CHE excluded for a single empty cell (2007).\"},\n {\"id\":\"C2\",\"text\":\"The balanced-panel mean life expectancy rose from 78.060 years in 2000 to 81.553 years in 2022, a change of +3.493 years.\",\"results_keys\":[\"mean_2000_balanced\",\"mean_2022_balanced\",\"change_2000_2022_balanced\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Unweighted country mean over a predominantly high-income set; descriptive, no sampling uncertainty.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C3\",\"text\":\"The naive 2022 mean over all 20 countries with a 2022 value is 78.692 years, lower than the balanced 2022 mean because of composition.\",\"results_keys\":[\"mean_2022_all_available\",\"n_countries_2022_all_available\",\"mean_2022_balanced\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Baseline only, not the estimand; computed after removing the duplicate TUR rows.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C4\",\"text\":\"The analytic dataset has 345 country-years after removing 23 duplicate TUR rows, 1 empty cell and 70 rows of incomplete countries from 439 input rows.\",\"results_keys\":[\"n_analysed\",\"n_input_rows\",\"data_issues\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"\"},\n {\"id\":\"C5\",\"text\":\"The balanced mean peaked at 82.073 in 2019, dropped to 81.320 in 2020, and remained below the 2019 level in 2022.\",\"results_keys\":[\"balanced_mean_by_year\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Descriptive.\"}\n]\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python -c \"\nimport json;r=json.load(open('out/results.json'));c=json.load(open('out/claims.json'))\nprint(all(k in r for x in c for k in x['results_keys']), r['mean_2022_balanced']-r['mean_2022_all_available'])\"","description":"Write report and claims; verify claim keys"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":1166,"cache_read_input_tokens":18665,"output_tokens":2529,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":0},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":1166},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXpBdQDdjAWdTiMrRnXw","requestRef":"23176021-72de-4241-b720-e877b15e5385","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"c0cc30dd-f437-4f9b-b950-a861b30f209a","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:47.854Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155/out/state","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}67{"parentUuid":"c0cc30dd-f437-4f9b-b950-a861b30f209a","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f88a509b-6d7e-4e71-bdfb-3f8bc401e9d8","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_015i72NRDyTPtYASvnbyzVsx","type":"tool_result","content":"True 2.8610670000000056","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"91c98fe6-d15c-47f3-ad50-d79e570b40ea","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:47.890Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"True 2.8610670000000056","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"c0cc30dd-f437-4f9b-b950-a861b30f209a","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}68{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","hash":"1f0d10d24521f96801f9443942932188f94442ad1ad6e689d0ec47297a1b56a6","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_015i72NRDyTPtYASvnbyzVsx","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cd /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155 && cat > out/report.md <<'EOF'\n# F1-conf-02 — Balanced-panel mean life expectancy, 2000–2022\n\n## Question\nHow did life expectancy at birth (WDI `SP.DYN.LE00.IN`, years) change between 2000 and 2022 across a fixed set of countries? The estimand is the unweighted mean over the countries (by iso3) that have a recorded value in every year from 2000 to 2022, each counted once. A naive 2022 mean over all countries with a 2022 value is reported only as a descriptive baseline.\n\n## Data and exclusions\n- Input: `data/life_expectancy_panel.csv`, 439 data rows (`n_input_rows`), 20 distinct iso3 codes (`n_countries_total`). Full audit is in `out/state/data_audit.md`.\n- Data problems found (`data_issues`):\n  1. TUR appears twice for every year, once as \"Turkey\" and once as \"Turkiye\" (46 rows). The values are identical in every year. This came from assembling two extractions. I kept one row per (iso3, year) and used the name \"Turkiye\". Because the values match, no estimate depends on which row was kept.\n  2. CHE 2007 has an empty value. I treated it as missing and did not impute it, so CHE is not in the balanced set.\n  3. BGD, ETH, IND and NGA have no rows for 2000–2010, only 2011–2022. Those years are missing, so these countries are not in the balanced set. They are still included in the 2022 baseline.\n- Exclusion ledger (`out/exclusions.csv`): 439 rows → 416 after removing the duplicates (−23) → 415 after dropping the empty value (−1) → 345 after keeping only balanced countries (−70) = `n_analysed`.\n- Balanced set (`balanced_countries`, `n_countries_balanced` = 15): AUS, AUT, BEL, CAN, DEU, ESP, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, KOR, NLD, SWE, TUR, USA. Incomplete countries (`n_countries_incomplete` = 5; `incomplete_countries`): BGD, CHE, ETH, IND, NGA.\n\n## Method\nAfter removing duplicate rows, a country is in the balanced set if it has a non-missing value in all 23 years from 2000 to 2022. For each year, the estimate is the simple mean over these 15 countries (`balanced_mean_by_year`). The change is the 2022 mean minus the 2000 mean. The baseline is the simple mean of the 2022 values over all distinct iso3 codes that have a 2022 value; all 20 countries do (`n_countries_2022_all_available`). Nothing was imputed and no randomness was used (`random_seed` = null). `out/analysis.py` regenerates every output.\n\n## Results\n- Balanced-panel mean in 2000: **78.060 years** (`mean_2000_balanced`).\n- Balanced-panel mean in 2022: **81.553 years** (`mean_2022_balanced`).\n- Change from 2000 to 2022: **+3.493 years** (`change_2000_2022_balanced`).\n- Baseline mean over all 20 countries with a 2022 value: **78.692 years** (`mean_2022_all_available`). It is 2.86 years below the balanced 2022 mean because it adds four lower-life-expectancy countries (BGD, ETH, IND, NGA) and CHE. It describes a different set of countries and is not the estimand.\n- The yearly balanced means (`balanced_mean_by_year`) rise from 2000 to 82.073 in 2019, fall to 81.320 in 2020, and have not regained the 2019 level by 2022.\n- Status: `feasibility` = \"complete\".\n\n## Uncertainty\nThe estimands are descriptive means over a fixed, fully observed set of countries, so no sampling-based standard errors or confidence intervals are reported. The remaining uncertainty is in the WDI estimates themselves (modelled values that are revised between releases) and in the assembly of the file. That uncertainty is not quantified here. Values are rounded to 3 decimals in the source.\n\n## Limitations and open issues\n- The balanced set is all high- or upper-middle-income countries (15 of 20). It leaves out the four lower-income countries and Switzerland, so the result does not represent all 20 countries.\n- CHE is excluded because of a single missing year (2007). That follows the definition of the estimand, but it may well be an assembly artefact. Under the no-imputation rule I did not recover the value.\n- The means are unweighted by country, not weighted by population.\n- The choice of name for TUR (\"Turkiye\" rather than \"Turkey\") is a labelling decision only.\nEOF\ncat > out/claims.json <<'EOF'\n[\n {\"id\":\"C1\",\"text\":\"15 of the 20 countries have a recorded life expectancy in every year 2000-2022 (AUS, AUT, BEL, CAN, DEU, ESP, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, KOR, NLD, SWE, TUR, USA); 5 are incomplete (BGD, CHE, ETH, IND, NGA).\",\"results_keys\":[\"n_countries_total\",\"n_countries_balanced\",\"n_countries_incomplete\",\"balanced_countries\",\"incomplete_countries\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"CHE excluded for a single empty cell (2007).\"},\n {\"id\":\"C2\",\"text\":\"The balanced-panel mean life expectancy rose from 78.060 years in 2000 to 81.553 years in 2022, a change of +3.493 years.\",\"results_keys\":[\"mean_2000_balanced\",\"mean_2022_balanced\",\"change_2000_2022_balanced\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Unweighted country mean over a predominantly high-income set; descriptive, no sampling uncertainty.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C3\",\"text\":\"The naive 2022 mean over all 20 countries with a 2022 value is 78.692 years, lower than the balanced 2022 mean because of composition.\",\"results_keys\":[\"mean_2022_all_available\",\"n_countries_2022_all_available\",\"mean_2022_balanced\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Baseline only, not the estimand; computed after removing the duplicate TUR rows.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C4\",\"text\":\"The analytic dataset has 345 country-years after removing 23 duplicate TUR rows, 1 empty cell and 70 rows of incomplete countries from 439 input rows.\",\"results_keys\":[\"n_analysed\",\"n_input_rows\",\"data_issues\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"\"},\n {\"id\":\"C5\",\"text\":\"The balanced mean peaked at 82.073 in 2019, dropped to 81.320 in 2020, and remained below the 2019 level in 2022.\",\"results_keys\":[\"balanced_mean_by_year\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Descriptive.\"}\n]\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python -c \"\nimport json;r=json.load(open('out/results.json'));c=json.load(open('out/claims.json'))\nprint(all(k in r for x in c for k in x['results_keys']), r['mean_2022_balanced']-r['mean_2022_all_available'])\"","description":"Write report and claims; verify claim keys"}}]}}69{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","id":"31f272d1-45ef-4b80-a313-78be445a069a","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:47.893Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"909038f326721571905963e4b04c2ebb9af43548301cd68e22d19a3ba7e05760","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"23176021-72de-4241-b720-e877b15e5385","keep":22,"tail":["1f0d10d24521f96801f9443942932188f94442ad1ad6e689d0ec47297a1b56a6","118862c3db21511468757332868455b1be60f857d7d5a15aac5989eeb007fad5"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",23,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"649d709ff9df8f96732ebb449b2aeebd252ea88cc0c01732542dd794fca72da9"}70{"type":"last-prompt","lastPrompt":"Begin","leafUuid":"91c98fe6-d15c-47f3-ad50-d79e570b40ea","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca"}71{"type":"atis-latch","atis":"","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca"}72{"parentUuid":"91c98fe6-d15c-47f3-ad50-d79e570b40ea","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXpDAqro67Z7DrLi3Nnm","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01VcY5hTy2KiM1WeMoRns47j","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cd /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155/out/state && ~/wp29/venv/bin/python - <<'EOF'\nimport json\np=json.load(open('phases.json'))\np['P5']={\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"report.md has 6 required sections, numbers cite results keys\",\"claims.json keys all exist in results.json (verified)\"],\"notes\":\"\"}\njson.dump(p,open('phases.json','w'),indent=1)\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P5 passed: report.md, claims.json written. 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All required files are in `out/`, and rerunning `out/analysis.py` from a clean state reproduced them exactly.\n\n**Results:**\n- **Balanced set:** 15 of the 20 countries: AUS, AUT, BEL, CAN, DEU, ESP, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, KOR, NLD, SWE, TUR, USA.\n- **Rows analysed:** 345 country-years (15 countries × 23 years).\n- **2022 baseline:** the simple mean over all 20 countries with a 2022 value is 78.692 years. It is lower because it adds Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Switzerland; it is a different set of countries, not the requested figure.\n- **Path over time:** the balanced mean peaked at 82.073 in 2019, dropped in 2020, and in 2022 was still below the 2019 level.\n\n**Data problems:**\n- **Türkiye appears twice:** each year has a row under \"Turkey\" and another under \"Turkiye\", with identical values. I kept one row per country-year and used the name \"Turkiye\", so no number changes.\n- **Switzerland, 2007:** the value is empty. I left it missing rather than filling it in, as the task requires, so Switzerland is excluded from the balanced set.\n- **Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India and Nigeria:** they only have data for 2011–2022, so they are excluded from the balanced set but included in the 2022 baseline.\n- **Exclusion ledger:** 439 rows read, minus 23 duplicates, 1 empty value and 70 rows from incomplete countries, leaves 345.\n\n**Limitations:**\n- The balanced set is all higher-income countries, so the result doesn't represent all 20.\n- Switzerland drops out over a single missing year, which may be a mistake in how the file was assembled.\n- These are unweighted averages across countries, not weighted by population.\n- No confidence intervals are given: these are descriptive averages over a fixed, fully observed set of countries.\n\nFiles are in `out/`:\n- results.json\n- analytic.csv\n- exclusions.csv\n- report.md\n- claims.json\n- analysis.py\n\nThe working notes (phases, data audit, checks, log) are in `out/state/`."}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"end_turn","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":353,"cache_read_input_tokens":22375,"output_tokens":845,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":42},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":353},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXpDNJRUHJE8Ej8w4gx8","requestRef":"dc9d268c-4cef-4f75-bbd8-cf2cbb21904e","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"c739f525-d2e7-4d21-a760-2b10b57c1495","timestamp":"2026-10-30T04:46:58.620Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0155/out/state","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}78{"type":"last-prompt","lastPrompt":"Begin","leafUuid":"c739f525-d2e7-4d21-a760-2b10b57c1495","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca"}79{"type":"cost-state","sessionId":"54211778-5334-490a-8e2e-0ebe916d6fca","totalCostUSD":0.3802076,"totalAPIDuration":105770,"totalAPIDurationWithoutRetries":105761,"totalToolDuration":1209,"totalLinesAdded":0,"totalLinesRemoved":0,"totalDuration":107102,"startTime":1793335511527,"modelUsage":{"claude-opus-5-5":{"inputTokens":28,"outputTokens":12146,"thinkingTokens":593,"cacheReadInputTokens":155278,"cacheCreationInputTokens":21224,"cacheCreationEphemeral5mInputTokens":21224,"cacheCreationEphemeral1hInputTokens":0,"webSearchRequests":0,"costUSD":0.3802076}},"hasUnknownModelCost":false}80