1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"The estimation sample has 1800 firm-years from 300 firms, after removing 40 exact duplicate rows and 300 origin-2022 firm-years with unobserved outcomes from 2140 input rows.","results_keys":["n_analysed","n_firms","n_input_rows"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Duplicates judged assembly errors because all values were identical."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"rating_2025 violates the information-availability rule (assigned in 2025 from realised defaults) and was excluded from the predictors.","results_keys":["variables_excluded","predictors_used"],"status":"supported","caveat":""},4 {"id":"C3","text":"The baseline next-year default rate in the estimation sample is about 12.1%.","results_keys":["default_rate","supp_n_defaults"],"status":"supported","caveat":""},5 {"id":"C4","text":"Conditional on cash ratio and log sales, higher leverage is associated with higher next-year default probability: beta_leverage about 0.264, firm-clustered SE about 0.041, 95% CI about [0.184, 0.344].","results_keys":["beta_leverage","se_leverage_cluster","supp_ci95_leverage_cluster","supp_pvalue_leverage_cluster"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Association in a linear probability model on simulated data; not causal."},6 {"id":"C5","text":"The model explains little of the variance in default (R2 about 0.035).","results_keys":["r2"],"status":"supported","caveat":""}7]8