1{2 "task_id": "F1-conf-03",3 "n_analysed": 1800,4 "n_firms": 300,5 "predictors_used": [6 "leverage",7 "cash_ratio",8 "log_sales"9 ],10 "variables_excluded": [11 {12 "variable": "rating_2025",13 "reason": "Assigned in the 2025 review using realised default history through 2022 and sample-average leverage; not known at end of year t (look-ahead leakage). In the data every observed default is in rating D."14 },15 {16 "variable": "firm_id",17 "reason": "identifier; used only for clustering, not as a predictor"18 },19 {20 "variable": "year",21 "reason": "origin-year index; not part of the specified model"22 },23 {24 "variable": "default_next",25 "reason": "outcome variable"26 }27 ],28 "beta_leverage": 0.2637836102938267,29 "se_leverage_cluster": 0.0407569280434615,30 "r2": 0.03490564212216729,31 "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,32 "feasibility": "complete",33 "feasibility_reason": null,34 "data_issues": [35 {36 "issue": "40 exact duplicate rows (40 duplicated firm_id-year keys, all identical copies)",37 "handling": "dropped duplicates keeping one copy; panel becomes 300 firms x 7 years"38 },39 {40 "issue": "rating_2025 is a final-vintage field built from future defaults (information leakage)",41 "handling": "excluded from predictors and from out/analytic.csv"42 },43 {44 "issue": "default_next missing for 300 deduplicated rows, by year: {2022: 300}",45 "handling": "excluded from estimation (outcome not observed at data cut); not imputed"46 }47 ],48 "n_input_rows": {49 "firm_panel.csv": 214050 },51 "random_seed": null,52 "beta_cash_ratio": -0.18594837465723182,53 "beta_log_sales": -0.007342181807581363,54 "intercept": 0.08997926409935522,55 "ci95_leverage_low": 0.18390149920815163,56 "ci95_leverage_high": 0.34366572137950174,57 "p_leverage_cluster": 9.663918872288981e-11,58 "se_leverage_classical": 0.035820571091069786,59 "n_rows_after_dedupe": 210060}