1{2 "task_id": "F1-conf-03",3 "n_analysed": 1800,4 "n_firms": 300,5 "predictors_used": [6 "leverage",7 "cash_ratio",8 "log_sales"9 ],10 "variables_excluded": [11 {12 "variable": "rating_2025",13 "reason": "known only in 2025; built from realised default history through 2022 and average leverage over the sample (look-ahead / outcome leakage)"14 }15 ],16 "beta_leverage": 0.26378361029382663,17 "se_leverage_cluster": 0.040756928043461385,18 "r2": 0.03490564212216729,19 "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,20 "feasibility": "complete",21 "feasibility_reason": null,22 "data_issues": [23 {24 "issue": "40 exact duplicate rows (40 duplicated firm_id-year keys; all copies identical in every column)",25 "handling": "dropped the redundant copies, kept one row per firm-year (300 firms x 7 years = 2100 rows)"26 },27 {28 "issue": "rating_2025 is a 2025 final-vintage field constructed from the realised default history (only class D has any defaults in the data)",29 "handling": "excluded from predictors and from analytic.csv"30 },31 {32 "issue": "default_next missing for 300 firm-years (all origin year [2022])",33 "handling": "excluded from estimation sample (right-censored at the data cut), no imputation"34 },35 {36 "issue": "default is not absorbing: firms record default_next=1 in multiple years (39 firm-years with default following a prior-year default) and remain in the panel",37 "handling": "kept as given (default treated as a recurring annual event); noted as limitation"38 },39 {40 "issue": "leverage bounded in [0.02, 0.95], suggesting possible winsorisation/clipping in the simulation",41 "handling": "kept as given"42 }43 ],44 "n_input_rows": {45 "firm_panel.csv": 214046 },47 "random_seed": null,48 "extra": {49 "ci95_leverage": [50 0.1839014992081518,51 0.3436657213795014752 ],53 "p_leverage": 9.663918872287931e-11,54 "coef": {55 "Intercept": 0.0899792640993549,56 "leverage": 0.26378361029382663,57 "cash_ratio": -0.1859483746572316,58 "log_sales": -0.007342181807581284559 },60 "se_cluster": {61 "Intercept": 0.043516020709436797,62 "leverage": 0.040756928043461385,63 "cash_ratio": 0.05888608376645755,64 "log_sales": 0.007626106514531892565 },66 "n_clusters": 300,67 "years": [68 2016,69 202170 ]71 }72}