# Log

• 2026-10-30 P0: read TASK.md and codebook; contract written. Decided not to read gate_spec.json (not an input).
• 2026-10-30 P1: audit: 2140 rows, 40 exact duplicate rows (same firm-year, all fields identical) -> drop; 2100 unique = 300x7. default_next missing for all 2022 rows (300 unique) -> excluded (outcome unobserved). rating_2025 leaks future -> excluded column. leverage floor 0.02 appears 57 times (likely bounded/clipped in generation) -> kept, noted.
• 2026-10-30 P2: baseline default_rate=0.1211 on estimation sample. P3: analysis.py written and run. P4: re-run identical; 18 consistency checks PASS. P5: report and claims written.