1{2 "task_id": "F1-conf-03",3 "n_analysed": 1800,4 "n_firms": 300,5 "predictors_used": [6 "leverage",7 "cash_ratio",8 "log_sales"9 ],10 "variables_excluded": [11 {12 "variable": "rating_2025",13 "reason": "known only in 2025 (after origin year t); constructed from realised default history through 2022 and full-sample average leverage, so it leaks the outcome"14 }15 ],16 "beta_leverage": 0.2637836102938267,17 "se_leverage_cluster": 0.04075692804346149,18 "r2": 0.03490564212216729,19 "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,20 "feasibility": "complete",21 "feasibility_reason": null,22 "data_issues": [23 {24 "issue": "40 exact duplicate rows (40 duplicated firm_id-year keys; all duplicates identical in every column), giving 40 firms 8 rows instead of 7",25 "handling": "dropped duplicate copies, keeping one row per firm-year"26 },27 {28 "issue": "300 firm-years with missing default_next, all in year(s) [2022] (outcome year 2023 not observed at end-2022 cut)",29 "handling": "excluded from estimation and recorded in the exclusion ledger; no imputation"30 },31 {32 "issue": "rating_2025 is a final-vintage (2025) field derived from realised defaults and average leverage; it perfectly separates defaulters (all defaults have rating D)",33 "handling": "excluded from the analytic dataset and the model (information rule)"34 },35 {36 "issue": "leverage has a mass point at its minimum 0.02 (54 analysed rows), suggesting floor-coding/censoring in the extract",37 "handling": "kept as recorded; noted as a limitation"38 },39 {40 "issue": "56 firms have default_next = 1 in more than one year (no exit after default)",41 "handling": "kept; each firm-year treated as an observation as the estimand specifies; firm-clustered SEs"42 }43 ],44 "n_input_rows": {45 "firm_panel.csv": 214046 },47 "random_seed": null,48 "ci95_leverage": [49 0.18390149920815163,50 0.3436657213795017451 ],52 "p_leverage": 9.663918872288908e-11,53 "coef_all": {54 "Intercept": 0.08997926409935522,55 "leverage": 0.2637836102938267,56 "cash_ratio": -0.18594837465723182,57 "log_sales": -0.00734218180758136358 },59 "se_cluster_all": {60 "Intercept": 0.04351602070943619,61 "leverage": 0.04075692804346149,62 "cash_ratio": 0.058886083766457535,63 "log_sales": 0.00762610651453185164 }65}