Log
- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1: audited data; hashes match README; one missing UNRATE value (2025-10) outside window. Decision: restrict to 1959Q4–2019Q4 levels; HAC lag rule floor(4(T/100)^(2/9)) = 4 for T=240.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed (audit + exclusion ledger). P2 passed: baseline RMSE 0.3247 (mean-only). P3 passed: analysis.py written; HAC lags=4 (NW 1994 rule); supplementary HAC break tests and lag sensitivity added.
- 2026-10-30 P4: clean rerun identical; checks.md written; gate run 1 (20261030T045019.492534Z) failed only on P5 artefacts (report, claims, phase ledger) as expected at this stage.
- 2026-10-30 P5 passed: report, claims written; gate run 2 (20261030T045104.837144Z) PASSED. Task complete.