- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1: audit done; truncation to <=2019Q4 decided; HAC lag rule floor(4(n/100)^(2/9))=4 chosen a priori.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed (audit). P2/P3 passed: analysis.py written; beta=-0.256, Chow p=0.0026 (unstable).
- 2026-10-30 Decision: CI uses normal critical value 1.96 with HAC SE; subperiod SEs in table1 also HAC(4).
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed: reproducibility and consistency checks (checks.md).
- 2026-10-30 P5 passed: report.md, claims.json written; all claim keys validated. Task complete.