1{2 "task_id": "F6-conf-03",3 "feasibility": "complete",4 "feasibility_reason": null,5 "data_issues": [6 {7 "issue": "UNRATE has 1 missing monthly value(s): 2025-10",8 "handling": "outside the 1959Q4-2019Q4 window needed for estimation, so no effect; quarters with missing months are never averaged (3 valid months required); no imputation"9 },10 {11 "issue": "Both files extend beyond 2019Q4 (to 2026); post-2019 quarters are outside the question",12 "handling": "truncated to 1959Q4-2019Q4 before any computation (1959Q4 used only as lag level)"13 },14 {15 "issue": "GDPC1 is the 2026 FRED vintage (chained 2017 dollars), not real-time data",16 "handling": "used as provided; results are conditional on this vintage (noted as limitation)"17 }18 ],19 "n_input_rows": {20 "GDPC1.csv": 319,21 "UNRATE.csv": 94522 },23 "n_analysed": 240,24 "random_seed": null,25 "sample_start": "1960-01-01",26 "sample_end": "2019-10-01",27 "n_sub1": 96,28 "n_sub2": 144,29 "baseline_metric": 0.32465793964999184,30 "model_metric": 0.2497438816636253,31 "effect_estimate": -0.2557677277487258,32 "intercept": 0.18438835418210714,33 "effect_se": 0.03583463330296569,34 "hac_lags": 4,35 "effect_ci_low": -0.32600231842173816,36 "effect_ci_high": -0.18553313707571345,37 "beta_sub1": -0.25902105345680587,38 "beta_sub2": -0.27339263306757905,39 "chow_f_stat": 6.0903330062337675,40 "chow_p_value": 0.002636323851733417,41 "stability_conclusion": "unstable",42 "conclusion": "negative_effect",43 "ols_classical_se": 0.01996009291490984,44 "r_squared": 0.4082508284562034,45 "hac_se_by_lag": {46 "0": 0.028836223207269963,47 "2": 0.03422732023615383,48 "4": 0.03583463330296569,49 "8": 0.03713550417540189,50 "12": 0.036408851102280951 },52 "intercept_sub1": 0.2542326539884382,53 "intercept_sub2": 0.15168581347724602,54 "beta_sub1_hac_se": 0.03880650875413735,55 "beta_sub2_hac_se": 0.06831428793738023,56 "hac_lags_sub1": 3,57 "hac_lags_sub2": 4,58 "chow_df": [59 2,60 23661 ],62 "hac_wald_joint_p": 0.004240368816511458,63 "hac_wald_slope_diff_p": 0.8536158012976183,64 "hac_wald_intercept_diff_p": 0.2499697254959754,65 "okun_growth_sub1": 0.9815134738876885,66 "okun_growth_sub2": 0.5548277280747038,67 "n_window_quarters": 241,68 "mean_du": -0.008333333333333335,69 "mean_g": 0.75350275506523770}