1{2 "task_id": "F6-conf-03",3 "sample_start": "1960-01-01",4 "sample_end": "2019-10-01",5 "n_sub1": 96,6 "n_sub2": 144,7 "baseline_metric": 0.32465793964999184,8 "model_metric": 0.2497438816636253,9 "effect_estimate": -0.2557677277487258,10 "intercept": 0.18438835418210714,11 "effect_se": 0.03598488399675878,12 "hac_lags": 4,13 "effect_ci_low": -0.3262968043702248,14 "effect_ci_high": -0.18523865112722682,15 "beta_sub1": -0.25902105345680587,16 "beta_sub2": -0.27339263306757905,17 "chow_f_stat": 6.0903330062337675,18 "chow_p_value": 0.002636323851733417,19 "stability_conclusion": "unstable",20 "conclusion": "negative_effect",21 "feasibility": "complete",22 "feasibility_reason": null,23 "data_issues": [24 {25 "issue": "UNRATE missing (empty value) for month(s) ['2025-10-01']",26 "handling": "Outside 1959Q4-2019Q4 window; affected quarter set to missing and in any case excluded by the window restriction, no imputation."27 },28 {29 "issue": "Files extend beyond 2019Q4 (GDPC1 to 2026Q3, UNRATE to 2026-09), including COVID-19 quarters",30 "handling": "Excluded by the information rule: no quarter after 2019Q4 enters any estimate."31 },32 {33 "issue": "GDPC1 is the current (2026) vintage, revised data, not real-time",34 "handling": "Used as provided; noted as limitation (estimates reflect revised GDP)."35 }36 ],37 "n_input_rows": {38 "GDPC1.csv": 319,39 "UNRATE.csv": 94540 },41 "n_analysed": 240,42 "random_seed": null,43 "ols_classical_se": 0.01996009291490984,44 "r_squared": 0.4082508284562034,45 "se_sub1_hac": 0.03921717107661775,46 "se_sub2_hac": 0.06879369233083424,47 "hac_lags_sub1": 3,48 "hac_lags_sub2": 4,49 "intercept_sub1": 0.2542326539884382,50 "intercept_sub2": 0.15168581347724602,51 "ssr_pooled": 14.96928154281957,52 "ssr_sub1": 7.379293854646264,53 "ssr_sub2": 6.855297827559747,54 "supp_hac_wald_joint_F": 5.372053278020056,55 "supp_hac_wald_joint_p": 0.0052299232796137185,56 "supp_hac_wald_slope_F": 0.033475422396223316,57 "supp_hac_wald_slope_p": 0.8549842111206409,58 "supp_resid_var_ratio_sub1_over_sub2": 1.6261064345399512,59 "supp_var_ratio_F_p_two_sided": 0.00871359597470174,60 "sensitivity_effect_se_by_lag": {61 "0": 0.028957130333809637,62 "2": 0.034370831642247524,63 "4": 0.03598488399675878,64 "8": 0.03729120927832667,65 "12": 0.0365615094284336166 }67}