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spb/wp29_uqo

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1{2  "task_id": "F6-conf-03",3  "feasibility": "complete",4  "feasibility_reason": null,5  "data_issues": [6    {7      "issue": "UNRATE missing (blank) values at ['2025-10-01']",8      "handling": "All outside the 1959Q4-2019Q4 window; quarters with <3 valid months set to NaN; no effect on estimates."9    },10    {11      "issue": "Files extend beyond 2019Q4 (GDPC1 to 2026Q3, UNRATE to 2026-09); GDPC1 is the current vintage (revised data), not real-time.",12      "handling": "All quarters after 2019Q4 dropped before any computation of estimates; revised-vintage use noted as limitation."13    }14  ],15  "n_input_rows": {16    "GDPC1.csv": 319,17    "UNRATE.csv": 94518  },19  "n_analysed": 240,20  "random_seed": null,21  "sample_start": "1960-01-01",22  "sample_end": "2019-10-01",23  "n_sub1": 96,24  "n_sub2": 144,25  "baseline_metric": 0.32465793964999184,26  "model_metric": 0.2497438816636253,27  "effect_estimate": -0.2557677277487258,28  "intercept": 0.18438835418210714,29  "effect_se": 0.03583463330296569,30  "hac_lags": 4,31  "effect_ci_low": -0.32600231842173816,32  "effect_ci_high": -0.18553313707571345,33  "beta_sub1": -0.25902105345680587,34  "beta_sub2": -0.27339263306757905,35  "chow_f_stat": 6.0903330062337675,36  "chow_p_value": 0.002636323851733417,37  "stability_conclusion": "unstable",38  "conclusion": "negative_effect",39  "ols_classical_se_full": 0.01996009291490984,40  "hac_se_sensitivity": {41    "0": 0.028836223207269963,42    "2": 0.03422732023615383,43    "8": 0.03713550417540189,44    "12": 0.036408851102280945  },46  "slope_break_hac_pvalue": 0.8536158012976183,47  "intercept_sub1": 0.2542326539884382,48  "intercept_sub2": 0.15168581347724602,49  "r_squared_full": 0.408250828456203450}
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