- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: audit written; decision: COVID window 2020-03..2021-12 excluded from training, pre-specified.
- 2026-10-30 P2 passed: naive baseline computed in analysis.py.
- 2026-10-30 P3 passed: model ardl_emp_direct implemented; added DM test for uncertainty.
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed: rerun identical, all checks pass incl. leakage test.
- 2026-10-30 P5 passed: report.md and claims.json written. Task complete.