1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"Naive forecast (gdp_yoy of t-2) has RMSE 0.814 pp at h=1 and 1.140 pp at h=3 over the 48 origins.","results_keys":["rmse_naive_h1","rmse_naive_h3","mae_naive_h1","mae_naive_h3"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Current-vintage data; timing simulated only."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"The direct OLS model with lagged GDP growth and LFS employment growth has lower RMSE and MAE than the naive forecast at both horizons (RMSE improvement 8.7% at h=1, 20.8% at h=3).","results_keys":["rmse_model_h1","rmse_model_h3","mae_model_h1","mae_model_h3","rel_improvement_rmse_h1","rel_improvement_rmse_h3"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Point estimates over 48 origins in a single post-pandemic window."},4 {"id":"C3","text":"The improvement is marginally significant at h=1 (DM p=0.049) and not significant at h=3 (p=0.18).","results_keys":["dm_test_naive_vs_model"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Small sample; DM test with HAC and HLN correction."},5 {"id":"C4","text":"Much of the gain likely reflects mean reversion rather than employment information; the employment coefficient at the last origin is small (0.058 at h=1, 0.032 at h=3).","results_keys":["last_origin_coefficients"],"status":"not_evaluated","caveat":"No AR-only benchmark was run; attribution to employment is not quantified."},6 {"id":"C5","text":"All forecasts respect the publication-lag rules (GDP <= t-2, employment <= t-1); at the last origin these are 2026-02-01 and 2026-03-01.","results_keys":["last_target_date_available","last_predictor_date_available"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Checked row by row in forecasts.csv; does not address data revisions."}7]8