# Log

2026-10-30 P0: read TASK.md, README, gate_spec; contract written.
2026-10-30 P1: audit done; decision: keep 1998 gdp_yoy as given; pre-specify COVID exclusion window 2020-03..2021-12 for model training. Note: script was first written by mistake into data/out/ (shell cwd); moved to out/ and data/out removed; data CSV hash re-verified unchanged.
2026-10-30 P2: naive baseline computed (gdp_yoy[t-2]) inside analysis.py.
2026-10-30 P3: model = direct OLS per horizon on const, gdp_yoy[s-2], emp_yoy[s-1], expanding window; DM tests added for uncertainty.
2026-10-30 P4: clean rerun identical; masked leakage check max diff 4.9e-7 (rounding); gate run.
2026-10-30 P4 passed (gate receipt 20261030T050524, only non-terminal-phase failure). P5: report/claims written; final gate PASSED (20261030T050530).

spb/wp29_uqo