1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"The OLS Okun coefficient for 1960Q1-2019Q4 is about -0.256: a 1 pp higher quarterly real GDP growth goes with a 0.26 pp lower change in the unemployment rate.","results_keys":["beta_hat","alpha_hat","r_squared","n_analysed","first_quarter","last_quarter"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Linear projection on current-vintage data; contemporaneous relation only, not structural."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"The Newey-West HAC standard error (Bartlett, 4 lags) is 0.036, about 1.8 times the naive iid standard error of 0.020, reflecting positive residual autocorrelation.","results_keys":["se_hac","se_iid","hac_lags"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Bandwidth from the Newey-West (1994) rule of thumb; the HAC SE ranges from 0.029 to 0.037 across 0-16 lags (diagnostics.json)."},4 {"id":"C3","text":"The Okun coefficient is negative and significantly different from zero at the 5% level; 95% HAC CI [-0.326, -0.185].","results_keys":["okun_negative_5pct","beta_ci_low","beta_ci_high"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Asymptotic normal inference; the conclusion holds for every bandwidth checked."},5 {"id":"C4","text":"Mean quarterly real GDP growth over the sample is 0.75%, close to the implied unemployment-stabilising growth rate -alpha/beta of about 0.72%.","results_keys":["mean_growth","alpha_hat","beta_hat"],"status":"supported","caveat":"The -alpha/beta ratio is a derived point estimate with no uncertainty computed."}6]7