spb/wp29_uqo

1{"type":"atis-latch","atis":"","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34"}2{"type":"queue-operation","operation":"enqueue","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:13:55.324Z","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","content":"Begin"}3{"type":"queue-operation","operation":"dequeue","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:13:55.328Z","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34"}4{"parentUuid":null,"isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f9f57fbc-a9e1-4f82-bec9-e476caed3cfb","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":"Begin"},"uuid":"87a3a85d-d4d5-4350-972b-2521e7cb6758","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:13:55.330Z","permissionMode":"default","promptSource":"sdk","turnOrigin":"sdk","turnPosition":{"promptIndex":0,"turnIndex":1},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}5{"type":"api-request-shape","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","shapeHash":"eaffde6ae9e2e91192f203c772f0301fe14f7474cb0f6724b667c381c9ebd143","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:13:55.340Z","version":"2.1.314","shape":{"system":[{"type":"text","text":"You are Claude Code, Anthropic's official CLI for Claude, running within the Claude Agent SDK."},{"type":"text","text":"CWD: /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256\nDate: 2026-10-30\n\nYou are a research assistant executing one bounded scientific task inside the current working directory, which is your workspace.\n\nEnvironment facts (identical for every task):\n- The task statement is the file `TASK.md` in the workspace. It is the complete and only authoritative description of what is required: the scientific question, the inputs under `data/`, the required output files and their exact keys, and the information-availability rules.\n- There is no network access. Use the Python interpreter `~/wp29/venv/bin/python` (numpy, pandas, scipy, statsmodels, matplotlib are installed). Standard shell tools are available. Do not try to install packages.\n- Write every deliverable under `./out/`. The required deliverables are listed in `TASK.md`; at minimum they always include `out/results.json`, `out/report.md`, and a replication entry point `out/analysis.py` that regenerates `out/results.json` from `data/` when run with `~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py` from the workspace root.\n- You are working alone and unattended; nobody will answer questions. Make reasonable, documented decisions.\n\nIntegrity rules (identical for every task):\n- Never fabricate numbers, data, results, or references. Every number in `out/results.json` and `out/report.md` must be produced by code you ran on the provided inputs.\n- Respect the information-availability rules in `TASK.md` exactly (for example, never use information that would not have been available at the stated decision time).\n- If part of the task cannot be completed as specified, say so explicitly in `out/report.md`, explain why, and still write every required file (use `null` for values you could not legitimately produce). An honest statement of a limitation is always preferred to a fabricated or guessed value.\n- Do not modify anything under `data/`.\n- When you are done, end with a brief plain-text summary of what you produced and any limitations.\n\nComplete the task described in `TASK.md` by following this research protocol. The protocol adds no scientific information to the task; it organizes how you work and what evidence you leave behind.\n\nPHASES (execute in order; a phase is eligible only when its dependencies are satisfied):\n\nP0 Scope and contract (depends on: nothing)\n- Read `TASK.md` completely. In `out/state/contract.md`, restate in your own words: the scientific question; the quantity or quantities to be estimated (the estimands) and the assumptions under which they are meaningful; every required output file and key; the information-availability rules; what would make the task impossible or the result invalid.\n- Write the initial phase ledger `out/state/phases.json`: a JSON object mapping each phase id (P0 … P5) to {\"status\": \"pending\"|\"running\"|\"passed\"|\"failed\"|\"blocked\"|\"stale\"|\"skipped_optional\", \"checks\": [], \"notes\": \"\"}. Keep it current as you work. A phase may only be set to \"passed\" when the checks listed for it in this protocol have actually been executed and their outcome recorded in \"checks\".\n\nP1 Data audit and provenance (depends on: P0)\n- Inspect every input file: compute and record its SHA-256, row and column counts, schema, units, date ranges, missing values, duplicates and anomalies in `out/state/data_audit.md`.\n- Keep an exclusion ledger in `out/exclusions.csv` (columns: step, rule, n_before, n_after, n_removed, rationale) for every filtering step you apply, so that n_raw − total removed = n_analysed.\n- Identify any input that violates the information-availability rules and decide, in writing, how you will handle it.\n\nP2 Baseline (depends on: P1)\n- Before any elaborate method, compute the simplest valid baseline that answers the question (for example a naïve or unconditional estimate), with the same evaluation rule used later. Record it in `out/results.json` under the keys the task requires, or under `baseline_*` keys when the task does not name them.\n\nP3 Method and computation (depends on: P2)\n- Implement the analysis in `out/analysis.py` so that it reads only `data/`, writes `out/results.json` deterministically (fix every random seed you use and record it), and prints nothing that contradicts the written results. Any figure or table must be generated by this script.\n\nP4 Verification (depends on: P3)\n- Re-run `out/analysis.py` from a clean state and confirm it regenerates `out/results.json` with identical values. Record the check in `out/state/phases.json` under P4.\n- Check internal consistency: identities that must hold (for example counts that must add up, standard errors that must be positive, confidence intervals that must contain their estimates, date orderings that must respect the information rules), units, and magnitudes against the baseline. Record every check and its outcome in `out/state/checks.md`. A failed check must be fixed or honestly reported, never silently ignored.\n\nP5 Reporting (depends on: P4)\n- Write `out/report.md` with the sections: Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues. Every quantitative statement must cite the key of `out/results.json` it comes from.\n- Write `out/claims.json`: a list of the central claims of your report, each as {\"id\": \"C1\", \"text\": \"...\", \"results_keys\": [\"...\"], \"status\": \"supported\"|\"unsupported\"|\"not_evaluated\", \"caveat\": \"...\"}. Do not state a claim in the report that is not in this ledger.\n- Set the final statuses in `out/state/phases.json`.\n\nSTOPPING RULES\n- Stop and declare the task complete only when every phase P0–P5 is \"passed\" with recorded checks. If a phase is \"blocked\" (missing information, impossible requirement, violated availability rule), stop, set the status, explain in `out/report.md` (section Limitations and open issues) and still write every required file with `null` for values you could not legitimately produce.\n- Do not spend effort on extensions that the task does not require.\n\nRECOVERY RULES\n- Append a short dated entry to `out/state/log.md` after each phase transition and after any important decision, so that work can be resumed by reading `out/state/`.\n- If you discover that an upstream input or decision changed after a downstream phase passed, mark the downstream phases \"stale\" and redo them; do not reuse stale results.\n- If you are interrupted and later resumed, first read `out/state/` and continue from the last consistent state; never re-run expensive steps that already have recorded, unchanged outputs.\n\nEXECUTABLE GATES (additional, mandatory)\n- A read-only gate program is provided at `~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py`. Run it from the workspace root as `~/wp29/venv/bin/python ~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py .` It checks the output contract of `TASK.md` (required files, keys, types, finite values, report sections, the claims ledger, the phase ledger, the exclusion ledger) and reproducibility (it re-runs `out/analysis.py` in a temporary copy and compares the regenerated `out/results.json` with yours). It never checks scientific correctness and it contains no reference answers.\n- You must run the gate at the end of P4 and again at the end of P5, and record each run's receipt (the gate writes `out/state/gate_receipts/<timestamp>.json`) in `out/state/phases.json`. You may not declare the task complete while the latest gate receipt reports `\"passed\": false`. Fix the reported problems and re-run the gate.\n- The controller will run the same gate after your session ends. If it fails, you will be resumed with the gate output and asked to fix the problems; each such cycle consumes your remaining budget.\n"}],"tools":[{"name":"Bash","description":"execute shell commands","input_schema":{"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","type":"object","properties":{"command":{"description":"The command to execute","type":"string"},"timeout":{"description":"Optional timeout in milliseconds (max 600000 for a foreground command)","type":"number"},"description":{"description":"Clear, concise description of what this command does in active voice. 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the user's own instructions about these lines, such as a CLAUDE.md or memory rule, take precedence over this reminder, but do not add attribution lines this reminder leaves out):\n- End git commit messages with:\nCo-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>\n- End pull request descriptions with:\n🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)\n</system-reminder>"}],"renderedRole":"user","renderedBesideToolResult":true,"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}11{"type":"tools-used","tools":["Bash"],"sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34"}12{"parentUuid":"497f6db5-e697-430e-80f2-907b252eab2b","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrHDNzKbgd4zjC9C7Kr","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"CAQSgwUKEAgTGAI4AUIIdGhpbmtpbmcSDIg9YshDHcxTLOFRFhoMG+Z7uXEwdseUaGlTIjAW/ny/KY90aq43qI0HpQpz2K0hPohSDV34lFGUlRxaCP+1Ng6hNU7Ui1idZCexPn4qoAToza5BcybNhChJKNBPuYN0gAeU4Ox8gCeGWoEDeNQhbWwg0uVDWT7JHBt4xcpYjTWm7BugpBk6HIyiXYKf169Ms19+RQDkwr5HjgGTH5QsyFly/qkjvwdEcwB+rZOWbosHgvxUGS3y+WaG2wOWmWf53Px7wBj8pR/gt5RcXewei3DFAYqJmkFP+qMNIPEhkfZlpXyEn6Wzx+Szfajt8DoySmn1VactYEe8nGnAtTMQMMrpUb1s0+QFynl2k158mK6aLQVRCjPCnhjPTf95rtXZ4Yu0V4ovvpOg4EHqoeu6RXTEA4zlMAxr50pXRu/F3kp7evSys8oh3orZSz2Rec0sxNPLNapE63Gs1J+ILEenl1uR02QWBZLLPByo4Zl0QitneZIMB62ljEQZqiOtDm8sbnV8jD6Lrs9JIGUP+zT2Tf06mE7Slxm6xh2Bp1Np+nYk+7CPFVx/jZck1Y0dSfK5ZfLh8k0F1jXVg4OD50VqxWl/p8LK47VWlEjRYA+G/+Hg6B3WOtMDql2txeqvZ3zOh5onW2vDEhD/5CUZ4worVygBW+6g3YOVX80S/fcJb6ZWQexkjQpnctcSgd+IV/aDc+GsMp62KftnAJbtpH4fC3qCd1WggV4UQXoZIXZ/4szf+Co8Lbqyyhe/t2CnBmV+dTjN41D18Zc0F0OXTBI5Gwf6rEaE28Sqrpblyl8nNEbBiTPKY3xhdfq0zI8snbGcGAE="}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":4,"cache_creation_input_tokens":2603,"cache_read_input_tokens":1504,"output_tokens":117,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":15},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":2603},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"thinkingDurationMs":393,"thinkingDisplay":"updates","apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXrHDB64KfFMLFSqiu2q","requestRef":"1666feb1-a284-4905-ac73-aa05de776547","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"3460bdf2-2647-421d-ac09-c551722bf421","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:13:57.880Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}13{"parentUuid":"3460bdf2-2647-421d-ac09-c551722bf421","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrHDNzKbgd4zjC9C7Kr","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_015sK7BjweDespKsBqY4H8TU","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat TASK.md; 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for each, the reference list gives a bibliographic entry (authors, year, title, arXiv number) and the manuscript attributes to it a specific finding (\"cited_for\"). For each reference, check against the provided source extract whether (i) the title matches the document, (ii) the year is consistent with the document's submission date(s), and (iii) the attributed finding is actually stated in, or follows arithmetically from, the extract. A reference is **unverifiable** when the source material and the entry disagree on the title or year, or when the attributed finding is not supported by the source. The estimand is the set of unverifiable references, together with a per-reference record of the three checks and a locator for each finding check.\n\n## Inputs\n- `data/reference_list.json` — five references: {\"id\", \"entry\" (bibliographic string), \"cited_for\" (the attributed finding), \"source_file\" (the extract to check against)}.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt` — arXiv:2609.27732v1, Armendariz (2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 6 (Tables 6, 7), Table A19.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt` — arXiv:2606.14621v1, Li, Pearson-Merkowitz & Yokum (2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 3 (Table 2), Table 3.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt` — arXiv:2603.03260v2, Liu & Zhao (2026; v1 March 2026, v2 April 2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 3 (Tables 2, 3), Section 5.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt` — arXiv:2505.04555v3, Kanayama, Miyaji & Otani (v1 May 2025, v3 March 2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Appendix A.1 (Table 2).\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt` — arXiv:2510.03658v1, Tossou (October 2025), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 4.1, Table 3.\n- Each extract begins with a provenance header giving the title, authors, arXiv identifier with version and submission dates (the \"Bibliographic record\" line); the body reproduces the document's own title line, abstract and the cited sections. `data/README.md` gives retrieval times, licences and SHA-256 values.\n\n## Information-availability rules\n- The extracts (header and body) are the only admissible evidence; do not use remembered content of the papers, their other versions, or external bibliographic databases.\n- Year check: an entry's year is consistent if it equals the year of the first arXiv submission or the year of the version reproduced in the extract (both given in the \"Bibliographic record\" line). Title check: minor typographic differences (capitalisation, punctuation, diacritics, \"and\" vs \"&\") are acceptable; a different title is not. Author formatting differences (initials, order within the printed order) are not grounds for flagging.\n- Finding check: every element of \"cited_for\" (magnitudes, uncertainty statements, timing, population) must be stated in or follow arithmetically from the extract.\n- A locator names the source id and the table (row/column) or section that decides the finding check.\n\n## Required outputs\n- `out/results.json` with the keys:\n\n| key | type | unit | meaning |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| `reference_checks` | object | — | {\"R1\": {\"title_matches\": true/false, \"year_matches\": true/false, \"finding_supported\": true/false, \"locator\": \"<source id | table/section>\", \"note\": \"<one sentence>\"}, …, \"R5\": {…}} |\n| `unverifiable_references` | array of strings | — | ids of the references that fail at least one check (empty list if none) |\n| `n_verified` | integer | — | number of references passing all three checks |\n| `task_id` | string | — | \"F4-conf-04\" |\n| `feasibility` | string | — | \"complete\", \"partial\" or \"infeasible\" — refers to the task as a whole |\n| `feasibility_reason` | string or null | — | explanation if not complete |\n| `data_issues` | array of {\"issue\",\"handling\"} | — | problems detected in the inputs (rendering defects, internal inconsistencies of a source, etc.) and how they were handled; empty list if none |\n| `n_input_rows` | object | lines / items | {file name: number of lines} for every file under `data/` that you read (text files: number of newline-terminated lines as reported by `wc -l`; JSON files: number of top-level items) |\n| `n_analysed` | integer or null | — | number of reported items (values, assertions, effects or references) you actually assessed |\n| `random_seed` | integer or null | — | null (no randomness is involved) |\n\n- `out/report.md` with the sections: Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues.\n- `out/analysis.py` — running `~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py` from the workspace root must regenerate `out/results.json` from `data/` only, deterministically (the script must print the header lines and table cells it relies on).\n- `out/claims.json` — a list of the central claims of the report: [{\"id\": \"C1\", \"text\": \"...\", \"results_keys\": [\"...\"], \"status\": \"supported\"|\"unsupported\"|\"not_evaluated\", \"caveat\": \"...\"}].\n\n## Constraints\n- No network access. Python: `~/wp29/venv/bin/python` (numpy, pandas, scipy, statsmodels available; the standard library is sufficient for this task). Do not modify `data/`.\n- The source extracts under `data/sources/` are the **only** admissible evidence. Do not rely on memory of the papers or on other versions of them; if a quantity is not in the extract, it is not available.\n- Report numbers exactly as printed in the source (same sign, same number of decimals); do not round or rescale printed values unless the key definition asks for a transformation.\n- This task is designed to be completed in well under 20 minutes of work.\ntotal 32\ndrwxr-xr-x    6 simon-pierreboucher  staff   192 oct.  29 23:45 .\ndrwxr-xr-x  144 simon-pierreboucher  staff  4608 oct.  30 01:13 ..\n-rw-r--r--    1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  1074 oct.  29 23:45 bundle.json\ndrwxr-xr-x    5 simon-pierreboucher  staff   160 oct.  29 23:45 data\n-rw-r--r--    1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  1333 oct.  29 23:45 gate_spec.json\n-rw-r--r--    1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  5697 oct.  29 23:45 TASK.md\ndata:\ntotal 16\ndrwxr-xr-x  5 simon-pierreboucher  staff   160 oct.  29 23:45 .\ndrwxr-xr-x  6 simon-pierreboucher  staff   192 oct.  29 23:45 ..\n-rw-r--r--  1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  3277 oct.  29 23:45 README.md\n-rw-r--r--  1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  2360 oct.  29 23:45 reference_list.json\ndrwxr-xr-x  7 simon-pierreboucher  staff   224 oct.  29 23:45 sources","is_error":true,"tool_use_id":"toolu_015sK7BjweDespKsBqY4H8TU"}]},"uuid":"306d6e0c-b662-4c94-bfe1-8a8ae6047cc2","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:13:58.467Z","toolUseResult":"Error: Exit code 1\n# F4-conf-04 — Verifying a reference list against the cited source material\n\n## Scientific question\nA draft manuscript cites five open-access studies; for each, the reference list gives a bibliographic entry (authors, year, title, arXiv number) and the manuscript attributes to it a specific finding (\"cited_for\"). For each reference, check against the provided source extract whether (i) the title matches the document, (ii) the year is consistent with the document's submission date(s), and (iii) the attributed finding is actually stated in, or follows arithmetically from, the extract. A reference is **unverifiable** when the source material and the entry disagree on the title or year, or when the attributed finding is not supported by the source. The estimand is the set of unverifiable references, together with a per-reference record of the three checks and a locator for each finding check.\n\n## Inputs\n- `data/reference_list.json` — five references: {\"id\", \"entry\" (bibliographic string), \"cited_for\" (the attributed finding), \"source_file\" (the extract to check against)}.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt` — arXiv:2609.27732v1, Armendariz (2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 6 (Tables 6, 7), Table A19.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt` — arXiv:2606.14621v1, Li, Pearson-Merkowitz & Yokum (2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 3 (Table 2), Table 3.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt` — arXiv:2603.03260v2, Liu & Zhao (2026; v1 March 2026, v2 April 2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 3 (Tables 2, 3), Section 5.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt` — arXiv:2505.04555v3, Kanayama, Miyaji & Otani (v1 May 2025, v3 March 2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Appendix A.1 (Table 2).\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt` — arXiv:2510.03658v1, Tossou (October 2025), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 4.1, Table 3.\n- Each extract begins with a provenance header giving the title, authors, arXiv identifier with version and submission dates (the \"Bibliographic record\" line); the body reproduces the document's own title line, abstract and the cited sections. `data/README.md` gives retrieval times, licences and SHA-256 values.\n\n## Information-availability rules\n- The extracts (header and body) are the only admissible evidence; do not use remembered content of the papers, their other versions, or external bibliographic databases.\n- Year check: an entry's year is consistent if it equals the year of the first arXiv submission or the year of the version reproduced in the extract (both given in the \"Bibliographic record\" line). Title check: minor typographic differences (capitalisation, punctuation, diacritics, \"and\" vs \"&\") are acceptable; a different title is not. Author formatting differences (initials, order within the printed order) are not grounds for flagging.\n- Finding check: every element of \"cited_for\" (magnitudes, uncertainty statements, timing, population) must be stated in or follow arithmetically from the extract.\n- A locator names the source id and the table (row/column) or section that decides the finding check.\n\n## Required outputs\n- `out/results.json` with the keys:\n\n| key | type | unit | meaning |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| `reference_checks` | object | — | {\"R1\": {\"title_matches\": true/false, \"year_matches\": true/false, \"finding_supported\": true/false, \"locator\": \"<source id | table/section>\", \"note\": \"<one sentence>\"}, …, \"R5\": {…}} |\n| `unverifiable_references` | array of strings | — | ids of the references that fail at least one check (empty list if none) |\n| `n_verified` | integer | — | number of references passing all three checks |\n| `task_id` | string | — | \"F4-conf-04\" |\n| `feasibility` | string | — | \"complete\", \"partial\" or \"infeasible\" — refers to the task as a whole |\n| `feasibility_reason` | string or null | — | explanation if not complete |\n| `data_issues` | array of {\"issue\",\"handling\"} | — | problems detected in the inputs (rendering defects, internal inconsistencies of a source, etc.) and how they were handled; empty list if none |\n| `n_input_rows` | object | lines / items | {file name: number of lines} for every file under `data/` that you read (text files: number of newline-terminated lines as reported by `wc -l`; JSON files: number of top-level items) |\n| `n_analysed` | integer or null | — | number of reported items (values, assertions, effects or references) you actually assessed |\n| `random_seed` | integer or null | — | null (no randomness is involved) |\n\n- `out/report.md` with the sections: Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues.\n- `out/analysis.py` — running `~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py` from the workspace root must regenerate `out/results.json` from `data/` only, deterministically (the script must print the header lines and table cells it relies on).\n- `out/claims.json` — a list of the central claims of the report: [{\"id\": \"C1\", \"text\": \"...\", \"results_keys\": [\"...\"], \"status\": \"supported\"|\"unsupported\"|\"not_evaluated\", \"caveat\": \"...\"}].\n\n## Constraints\n- No network access. Python: `~/wp29/venv/bin/python` (numpy, pandas, scipy, statsmodels available; the standard library is sufficient for this task). Do not modify `data/`.\n- The source extracts under `data/sources/` are the **only** admissible evidence. Do not rely on memory of the papers or on other versions of them; if a quantity is not in the extract, it is not available.\n- Report numbers exactly as printed in the source (same sign, same number of decimals); do not round or rescale printed values unless the key definition asks for a transformation.\n- This task is designed to be completed in well under 20 minutes of work.\ntotal 32\ndrwxr-xr-x    6 simon-pierreboucher  staff   192 oct.  29 23:45 .\ndrwxr-xr-x  144 simon-pierreboucher  staff  4608 oct.  30 01:13 ..\n-rw-r--r--    1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  1074 oct.  29 23:45 bundle.json\ndrwxr-xr-x    5 simon-pierreboucher  staff   160 oct.  29 23:45 data\n-rw-r--r--    1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  1333 oct.  29 23:45 gate_spec.json\n-rw-r--r--    1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  5697 oct.  29 23:45 TASK.md\ndata:\ntotal 16\ndrwxr-xr-x  5 simon-pierreboucher  staff   160 oct.  29 23:45 .\ndrwxr-xr-x  6 simon-pierreboucher  staff   192 oct.  29 23:45 ..\n-rw-r--r--  1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  3277 oct.  29 23:45 README.md\n-rw-r--r--  1 simon-pierreboucher  staff  2360 oct.  29 23:45 reference_list.json\ndrwxr-xr-x  7 simon-pierreboucher  staff   224 oct.  29 23:45 sources","sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"eb11f0b0-635b-4306-95a7-5e643562c740","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}15{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","hash":"30d3bcf1dc90f571c73be08c680ef153e2688d62d66a6cc5a1e98c7c976857ca","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_015sK7BjweDespKsBqY4H8TU","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat TASK.md; 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wc -l data/sources/* data/README.md; shasum -a 256 data/sources/* data/*.json data/README.md","description":"Read inputs metadata"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":2659,"cache_read_input_tokens":4107,"output_tokens":142,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":0},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":2659},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXrHM8LLEWcFZqrg4iwK","requestRef":"09a182a0-b091-4f08-a91e-efc82fde3102","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"4802aa7b-0381-4f43-98f2-259cd3ec386f","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:00.246Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}20{"parentUuid":"4802aa7b-0381-4f43-98f2-259cd3ec386f","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f9f57fbc-a9e1-4f82-bec9-e476caed3cfb","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01KviygvxzikgdFmEeGYFN9b","type":"tool_result","content":"# Data provenance — F4-conf-04\n\nAll files under `data/sources/` are plain-text extracts of publicly accessible documents, prepared by the task designer on 2026-10-30 (UTC). Each extract begins with a provenance header (title, authors, bibliographic record, retrieval URL and UTC, SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML, license, list of included and omitted sections). Only the excerpts needed for the task are reproduced; everything else is omitted. Tables are rendered one row per line with ` | ` between cells; in regression tables, the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses as printed in the original.\n\n| file | document | retrieval UTC | license | SHA-256 of the extract |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| `sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt` | Armendariz, A. (2026). Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland. arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.27732v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | ee2d444d2f78f2af2ca2cf69b59a61fcd7ac5e10ea29e8ddcd67917bf07d6a8b |\n| `sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt` | Li, H. H., Pearson-Merkowitz, S., & Yokum, D. (2026). Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes. arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.14621v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | 27c463c0a144d9d5a3916dc641f15b6029f6c68b5e574ad9074e7df1aeb0a238 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt` | Liu, W., & Zhao, R. (2026). Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London. arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], v2 of 2 Apr 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2603.03260v2) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | 3cb9a4f3574e7b2272fe19cde165a745543883f86beb9342f6fc0ab744c31551 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt` | Kanayama, H., Miyaji, S., & Otani, S. (2025/2026). Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation. arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], v1 of 7 May 2025, v3 of 16 Mar 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2505.04555v3) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | b1731a9b1c40ae91c6be2cf2e92623bb6cf86c551587936a0270356f76ae95c1 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt` | Tossou, S. C. (2025). Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin. arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2510.03658v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | f8782937eeaebd2dae0e653bbfc6aeb266c51587d09a4207bcaa3fa48a881127 |\n\nTask-specific input files (prepared by the task designer, not observed data):\n\n- `reference_list.json` — the five bibliographic entries with the finding attributed to each and the extract to check against, written by the task designer\n\nRights: arXiv e-prints are reproduced in part under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence shown on their arXiv abstract pages. No numbers were altered; where a table was re-set for legibility (RESEA Tables 2-3, London Table 3 header) the extract header says so.\n[\n  {\n    \"id\": \"R1\",\n    \"entry\": \"Armendariz, A. (2026). Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland. arXiv:2609.27732.\",\n    \"cited_for\": \"Drug consumption room openings reduce drug-related hospitalisation rates by roughly 35% within 5 km of a facility (ATT −0.431, SE 0.210, significant at the 5% level), using a staggered difference-in-differences design on Swiss hospital records.\",\n    \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt\"\n  },\n  {\n    \"id\": \"R2\",\n    \"entry\": \"Li, H. H., Pearson-Merkowitz, S., & Yokum, D. (2026). Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes. arXiv:2606.14621.\",\n    \"cited_for\": \"In a preregistered randomised controlled trial (N = 23,549), selection into RESEA raised annualised wages by $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), raised reemployment by 1.47 percentage points and reduced weeks on UI by 1.99 weeks.\",\n    \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\"\n  },\n  {\n    \"id\": \"R3\",\n    \"entry\": \"Liu, W., & Zhao, R. (2024). Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change: Commercial Entry and House Prices in Greater London. arXiv:2603.03260.\",\n    \"cited_for\": \"Local house prices jump by 3.4–3.7% in the year in which food-and-drink establishments enter an LSOA, with no further appreciation in later years.\",\n    \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\"\n  },\n  {\n    \"id\": \"R4\",\n    \"entry\": \"Kanayama, H., Miyaji, S., & Otani, S. (2025). Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation. arXiv:2505.04555.\",\n    \"cited_for\": \"In Japan's spot labour market, the employment elasticity with respect to the minimum wage is −0.388 (SE 0.132) and the own-wage employment elasticity is −0.732 (SE 0.091).\",\n    \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\"\n  },\n  {\n    \"id\": \"R5\",\n    \"entry\": \"Tossou, S. C. (2025). Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin. arXiv:2510.03658.\",\n    \"cited_for\": \"Access to Benin's free cesarean section policy reduces the probability of infant death or stillbirth by 0.0962 (SE 0.0129) in the preferred specification, a 36.85% reduction relative to the mean of the dependent variable.\",\n    \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\"\n  }\n]\n{\n  \"task_id\": \"F4-conf-04\",\n  \"required_files\": [\n    \"out/results.json\",\n    \"out/report.md\",\n    \"out/analysis.py\",\n    \"out/claims.json\"\n  ],\n  \"results_keys\": {\n    \"reference_checks\": {\n      \"type\": \"object\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"unverifiable_references\": {\n      \"type\": \"array\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"n_verified\": {\n      \"type\": \"integer\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"task_id\": {\n      \"type\": \"string\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"feasibility\": {\n      \"type\": \"string\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"feasibility_reason\": {\n      \"type\": \"string\",\n      \"nullable\": true\n    },\n    \"data_issues\": {\n      \"type\": \"array\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"n_input_rows\": {\n      \"type\": \"object\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"n_analysed\": {\n      \"type\": \"integer\",\n      \"nullable\": true\n    },\n    \"random_seed\": {\n      \"type\": \"integer\",\n      \"nullable\": true\n    }\n  },\n  \"report_sections\": [\n    \"Question\",\n    \"Data and exclusions\",\n    \"Method\",\n    \"Results\",\n    \"Uncertainty\",\n    \"Limitations and open issues\"\n  ],\n  \"family_checks\": [\n    \"claims_reference_existing_keys\",\n    \"phase_ledger_consistent\"\n  ],\n  \"ci_pairs\": [],\n  \"positive_keys\": [],\n  \"chronology_pairs\": [],\n  \"analysis_timeout_s\": 300,\n  \"reproducibility_tolerance_rel\": 1e-06\n}\n{\n  \"task_id\": \"F4-conf-04\",\n  \"family\": \"F4\",\n  \"split\": \"conf\",\n  \"version\": \"1.0\",\n  \"created_utc\": \"2026-10-30T03:45:06.505419+00:00\",\n  \"files\": {\n    \"TASK.md\": \"ff798455d4e67f177f3109ee648dea2581441bbf14dcf66217357b97142df2a8\",\n    \"data/README.md\": \"c6d375725356176fa7600ab663d9306c5f37c1097b619792bcbed166ccc792b2\",\n    \"data/reference_list.json\": \"7ab6cbf2606f90f3174215214feddd73533d29cda4befdc77ffdb595193ab5da\",\n    \"data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\": \"b1731a9b1c40ae91c6be2cf2e92623bb6cf86c551587936a0270356f76ae95c1\",\n    \"data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\": \"f8782937eeaebd2dae0e653bbfc6aeb266c51587d09a4207bcaa3fa48a881127\",\n    \"data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\": \"3cb9a4f3574e7b2272fe19cde165a745543883f86beb9342f6fc0ab744c31551\",\n    \"data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\": \"27c463c0a144d9d5a3916dc641f15b6029f6c68b5e574ad9074e7df1aeb0a238\",\n    \"data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt\": \"ee2d444d2f78f2af2ca2cf69b59a61fcd7ac5e10ea29e8ddcd67917bf07d6a8b\",\n    \"gate_spec.json\": \"2333dfa3f0ef0db6a35419a41b6a696ac5b4547b7b9eee208af28f9507868392\"\n  }\n}      66 data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\n      91 data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\n     107 data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\n      58 data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\n     134 data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt\n      17 data/README.md\n     473 total\nb1731a9b1c40ae91c6be2cf2e92623bb6cf86c551587936a0270356f76ae95c1  data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\nf8782937eeaebd2dae0e653bbfc6aeb266c51587d09a4207bcaa3fa48a881127  data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\n3cb9a4f3574e7b2272fe19cde165a745543883f86beb9342f6fc0ab744c31551  data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\n27c463c0a144d9d5a3916dc641f15b6029f6c68b5e574ad9074e7df1aeb0a238  data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\nee2d444d2f78f2af2ca2cf69b59a61fcd7ac5e10ea29e8ddcd67917bf07d6a8b  data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt\n7ab6cbf2606f90f3174215214feddd73533d29cda4befdc77ffdb595193ab5da  data/reference_list.json\nc6d375725356176fa7600ab663d9306c5f37c1097b619792bcbed166ccc792b2  data/README.md","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"d79aa82a-6cf8-47e1-9205-250a135620e8","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:00.309Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"# Data provenance — F4-conf-04\n\nAll files under `data/sources/` are plain-text extracts of publicly accessible documents, prepared by the task designer on 2026-10-30 (UTC). Each extract begins with a provenance header (title, authors, bibliographic record, retrieval URL and UTC, SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML, license, list of included and omitted sections). Only the excerpts needed for the task are reproduced; everything else is omitted. Tables are rendered one row per line with ` | ` between cells; in regression tables, the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses as printed in the original.\n\n| file | document | retrieval UTC | license | SHA-256 of the extract |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| `sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt` | Armendariz, A. (2026). Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland. arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.27732v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | ee2d444d2f78f2af2ca2cf69b59a61fcd7ac5e10ea29e8ddcd67917bf07d6a8b |\n| `sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt` | Li, H. H., Pearson-Merkowitz, S., & Yokum, D. (2026). Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes. arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.14621v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | 27c463c0a144d9d5a3916dc641f15b6029f6c68b5e574ad9074e7df1aeb0a238 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt` | Liu, W., & Zhao, R. (2026). Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London. arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], v2 of 2 Apr 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2603.03260v2) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | 3cb9a4f3574e7b2272fe19cde165a745543883f86beb9342f6fc0ab744c31551 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt` | Kanayama, H., Miyaji, S., & Otani, S. (2025/2026). Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation. arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], v1 of 7 May 2025, v3 of 16 Mar 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2505.04555v3) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | b1731a9b1c40ae91c6be2cf2e92623bb6cf86c551587936a0270356f76ae95c1 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt` | Tossou, S. C. (2025). Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin. arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2510.03658v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | f8782937eeaebd2dae0e653bbfc6aeb266c51587d09a4207bcaa3fa48a881127 |\n\nTask-specific input files (prepared by the task designer, not observed data):\n\n- `reference_list.json` — the five bibliographic entries with the finding attributed to each and the extract to check against, written by the task designer\n\nRights: arXiv e-prints are reproduced in part under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence shown on their arXiv abstract pages. No numbers were altered; where a table was re-set for legibility (RESEA Tables 2-3, London Table 3 header) the extract header says so.\n[\n  {\n    \"id\": \"R1\",\n    \"entry\": \"Armendariz, A. (2026). Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland. arXiv:2609.27732.\",\n    \"cited_for\": \"Drug consumption room openings reduce drug-related hospitalisation rates by roughly 35% within 5 km of a facility (ATT −0.431, SE 0.210, significant at the 5% level), using a staggered difference-in-differences design on Swiss hospital records.\",\n    \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt\"\n  },\n  {\n    \"id\": \"R2\",\n    \"entry\": \"Li, H. H., Pearson-Merkowitz, S., & Yokum, D. (2026). Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes. arXiv:2606.14621.\",\n    \"cited_for\": \"In a preregistered randomised controlled trial (N = 23,549), selection into RESEA raised annualised wages by $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), raised reemployment by 1.47 percentage points and reduced weeks on UI by 1.99 weeks.\",\n    \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\"\n  },\n  {\n    \"id\": \"R3\",\n    \"entry\": \"Liu, W., & Zhao, R. (2024). Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change: Commercial Entry and House Prices in Greater London. arXiv:2603.03260.\",\n    \"cited_for\": \"Local house prices jump by 3.4–3.7% in the year in which food-and-drink establishments enter an LSOA, with no further appreciation in later years.\",\n    \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\"\n  },\n  {\n    \"id\": \"R4\",\n    \"entry\": \"Kanayama, H., Miyaji, S., & Otani, S. (2025). Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation. arXiv:2505.04555.\",\n    \"cited_for\": \"In Japan's spot labour market, the employment elasticity with respect to the minimum wage is −0.388 (SE 0.132) and the own-wage employment elasticity is −0.732 (SE 0.091).\",\n    \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\"\n  },\n  {\n    \"id\": \"R5\",\n    \"entry\": \"Tossou, S. C. (2025). Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin. arXiv:2510.03658.\",\n    \"cited_for\": \"Access to Benin's free cesarean section policy reduces the probability of infant death or stillbirth by 0.0962 (SE 0.0129) in the preferred specification, a 36.85% reduction relative to the mean of the dependent variable.\",\n    \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\"\n  }\n]\n{\n  \"task_id\": \"F4-conf-04\",\n  \"required_files\": [\n    \"out/results.json\",\n    \"out/report.md\",\n    \"out/analysis.py\",\n    \"out/claims.json\"\n  ],\n  \"results_keys\": {\n    \"reference_checks\": {\n      \"type\": \"object\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"unverifiable_references\": {\n      \"type\": \"array\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"n_verified\": {\n      \"type\": \"integer\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"task_id\": {\n      \"type\": \"string\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"feasibility\": {\n      \"type\": \"string\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"feasibility_reason\": {\n      \"type\": \"string\",\n      \"nullable\": true\n    },\n    \"data_issues\": {\n      \"type\": \"array\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"n_input_rows\": {\n      \"type\": \"object\",\n      \"nullable\": false\n    },\n    \"n_analysed\": {\n      \"type\": \"integer\",\n      \"nullable\": true\n    },\n    \"random_seed\": {\n      \"type\": \"integer\",\n      \"nullable\": true\n    }\n  },\n  \"report_sections\": [\n    \"Question\",\n    \"Data and exclusions\",\n    \"Method\",\n    \"Results\",\n    \"Uncertainty\",\n    \"Limitations and open issues\"\n  ],\n  \"family_checks\": [\n    \"claims_reference_existing_keys\",\n    \"phase_ledger_consistent\"\n  ],\n  \"ci_pairs\": [],\n  \"positive_keys\": [],\n  \"chronology_pairs\": [],\n  \"analysis_timeout_s\": 300,\n  \"reproducibility_tolerance_rel\": 1e-06\n}\n{\n  \"task_id\": \"F4-conf-04\",\n  \"family\": \"F4\",\n  \"split\": \"conf\",\n  \"version\": \"1.0\",\n  \"created_utc\": \"2026-10-30T03:45:06.505419+00:00\",\n  \"files\": {\n    \"TASK.md\": \"ff798455d4e67f177f3109ee648dea2581441bbf14dcf66217357b97142df2a8\",\n    \"data/README.md\": \"c6d375725356176fa7600ab663d9306c5f37c1097b619792bcbed166ccc792b2\",\n    \"data/reference_list.json\": \"7ab6cbf2606f90f3174215214feddd73533d29cda4befdc77ffdb595193ab5da\",\n    \"data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\": \"b1731a9b1c40ae91c6be2cf2e92623bb6cf86c551587936a0270356f76ae95c1\",\n    \"data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\": \"f8782937eeaebd2dae0e653bbfc6aeb266c51587d09a4207bcaa3fa48a881127\",\n    \"data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\": \"3cb9a4f3574e7b2272fe19cde165a745543883f86beb9342f6fc0ab744c31551\",\n    \"data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\": \"27c463c0a144d9d5a3916dc641f15b6029f6c68b5e574ad9074e7df1aeb0a238\",\n    \"data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt\": \"ee2d444d2f78f2af2ca2cf69b59a61fcd7ac5e10ea29e8ddcd67917bf07d6a8b\",\n    \"gate_spec.json\": \"2333dfa3f0ef0db6a35419a41b6a696ac5b4547b7b9eee208af28f9507868392\"\n  }\n}      66 data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\n      91 data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\n     107 data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\n      58 data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\n     134 data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt\n      17 data/README.md\n     473 total\nb1731a9b1c40ae91c6be2cf2e92623bb6cf86c551587936a0270356f76ae95c1  data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\nf8782937eeaebd2dae0e653bbfc6aeb266c51587d09a4207bcaa3fa48a881127  data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\n3cb9a4f3574e7b2272fe19cde165a745543883f86beb9342f6fc0ab744c31551  data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\n27c463c0a144d9d5a3916dc641f15b6029f6c68b5e574ad9074e7df1aeb0a238  data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\nee2d444d2f78f2af2ca2cf69b59a61fcd7ac5e10ea29e8ddcd67917bf07d6a8b  data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt\n7ab6cbf2606f90f3174215214feddd73533d29cda4befdc77ffdb595193ab5da  data/reference_list.json\nc6d375725356176fa7600ab663d9306c5f37c1097b619792bcbed166ccc792b2  data/README.md","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"4802aa7b-0381-4f43-98f2-259cd3ec386f","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}21{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","hash":"f166a9fe0195948404190bd94997725949d15a7cbdabeded58f57b367ef1e41d","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01KviygvxzikgdFmEeGYFN9b","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat data/README.md data/reference_list.json gate_spec.json bundle.json; 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Evidence from Switzerland\n     3\tAuthors: Ana Armendariz (University of St. Gallen)\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN], submitted 23 Sep 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.27732v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 22b06050f4ff6e665aedd80561fa4031b1717867ecfeca71d1d2902ee1b09f52)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, author, date and abstract; Section 6 'Results' in full (Figure notes, Table 6, Table 7, Section 6.1 'Mechanisms'); Appendix Table A19 with its note and the paragraph that discusses it.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-5 and 7, the other appendix tables and figures, the references.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n    13\t\n    14\tAna Armendariz*\n    15\t\n    16\tSeptember 23, 2026\n    17\t\n    18\tThis paper estimates the causal effect of drug consumption room (DCR) openings on drug-related hospitalizations in Switzerland. I exploit the staggered introduction of DCRs across Swiss cities between 1998 and 2022, using individual-level hospital records and a difference-in-differences estimator. DCR openings reduce drug-related hospitalization rates by roughly 35% within 5 km of a facility. The reduction is most pronounced for fatal outcomes, which fall by 35% while narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise by a comparable amount, consistent with DCRs converting potentially fatal overdoses into non-fatal hospitalizations. Mental and behavioral disorder hospitalizations decline by 32% while estimates for Hepatitis and HIV are imprecise. The findings support the role of DCRs as an effective harm reduction strategy.\n    19\t\n    20\tKeywords: Drug Consumption Rooms, Harm Reduction, Hospitalizations, Drugs, Public Health, Causal Inference\n    21\t\n    22\t## 6 Results\n    23\t\n    24\tThis section reports the effect of DCR openings on the rate of drug-related hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants. I begin with the event-study estimates and then present the overall pooled ATT. I then disaggregate the overall outcome into its sub-outcome categories and report the same estimates for each.\n    25\t\n    26\tFigure 6: Event study estimates by buffer zone, \\pm 5-year window\n    27\t\n    28\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust estimator of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) for regions within 5 km of a DCR opening. The comparison group consists of never-treated regions (608 control regions). The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a DCR that opened between 1998 and 2022 and all never-treated regions. The estimation uses a \\pm 5-year window relative to DCR opening, with t=-5 and t=+5 representing pooled endpoint bins that absorb all periods beyond the window. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded through out. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level. Results for the 1 km and 3 km buffer specifications are reported in Appendix Figure A17.\n    29\t\n    30\tFigure 6 presents the event study estimates for the 5 km buffer specifications. I focus on the 5 km buffer specification, as it includes the largest number of treated regions and yields the most precise estimates. I summarize dynamic effects over a symmetric five year window around DCR openings. This window avoids relying on distant leads and lags that are informed by only a small subset of adopters. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and statistically insignificant, supporting the parallel trends assumption. The post-treatment coefficients are consistently negative, indicating a reduction in drug-related hospitalizations following DCR openings. The estimates of the overall summary of ATTs based on calendar time aggregation of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) is around -35% reduction in hospitalizations due to drugs.\n    31\t\n    32\tTable 6: Overall Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT)\n    33\t\n    34\t| 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n    35\t\n    36\tATT | -0.399 | -0.283 | -0.431**\n    37\t\n    38\t| (0.412) | (0.279) | (0.210)\n    39\t\n    40\t% change | -32.9% | -24.7% | -35.0%\n    41\t\n    42\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n    43\t\n    44\tControl regions | 608 | 608 | 608\n    45\t\n    46\tObservations | 16,175 | 16,875 | 17,250\n    47\t\n    48\tNote: The table reports the overall ATT estimated using the doubly robust Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with never-treated controls and a universal base period. The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. Columns differ in the geographic buffer used to define treated Medstat regions. The control group consists of 608 never-treated Medstat regions\n    49\tthroughout. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998\n    50\t(always-treated) are excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level in\n    51\tparentheses. Significance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 ,\n    52\t{}^{*}p<0.10 .\n    53\t\n    54\tTable 6 reports the pooled ATT for the 1 km, 3 km and 5 km buffer specification, aggregating the dynamic treatment effects into a single estimate averaged across all post-treatment periods and cohorts. The 5 km specification, yields an ATT of -0.431\n    55\tcorresponding to a 35% reduction in the drug-related hospitalization rate. This estimate is statistically significant at the 5% level. The 3 km and 1 km estimates point in the same direction but are less precise, due to the smaller number of treated regions.\n    56\t\n    57\tTo further explore the mechanisms through which DCR openings affect drug-related hospitalizations, I disaggregate the main outcome into five diagnostic\n    58\tsub-categories: (i) mental and behavioral disorders due to psychoactive substance use, (ii) viral hepatitis, (iii) HIV, (iv) poisoning by narcotics and psychodysleptics, and (v) fatal drug-related hospitalizations. Accidental poisoning is excluded due to the very small number of cases.\n    59\t\n    60\tFigure 7: Event study: Sub-outcome estimates,\n    61\twithin 5 km, \\pm 5-year window\n    62\t\n    63\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator for four diagnostic sub-categories of drug-related hospitalizations. Each panel uses a separate y -axis to accommodate differences in scale across outcomes. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a\n    64\tDCR that opened between 1998 and 2022. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level.\n    65\t\n    66\tTable 7: Overall ATT by Outcome Category and Buffer Zone\n    67\t\n    68\tOutcome | 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n    69\t\n    70\tMental/Behavioral | -0.354 | -0.202 | -0.381*\n    71\t\n    72\t| (0.382) | (0.244) | (0.220)\n    73\t\n    74\tHepatitis | -0.270 | -0.413 | -0.406\n    75\t\n    76\t| (0.486) | (0.270) | (0.250)\n    77\t\n    78\tHIV | 0.063 | -0.239 | -0.340\n    79\t\n    80\t| (0.801) | (0.337) | (0.294)\n    81\t\n    82\tNarcotics | 1.186*** | 0.549*** | 0.390**\n    83\t\n    84\t| (0.288) | (0.187) | (0.165)\n    85\t\n    86\tDrug-related (fatal) | -1.207*** | -0.290 | -0.354**\n    87\t\n    88\t| (0.137) | (0.215) | (0.178)\n    89\t\n    90\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n    91\t\n    92\tControl regions | 608 (never-treated) | |\n    93\t\n    94\tNote: Each cell reports the overall ATT from\n    95\tthe doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with\n    96\tnever-treated controls and a universal base period. Outcomes are\n    97\tlog hospitalization rates per 100,000 inhabitants. Sub-outcomes:\n    98\tmental and behavioral disorders (F11–F19), viral hepatitis (B15–B19),\n    99\tHIV disease (B20–B24), narcotics/psychodysleptics (T40). The 1 km\n   100\testimates are identified from a single treated region per cohort and\n   101\tshould be interpreted with caution. Regions near DCRs opened before\n   102\t1998 excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level.\n   103\tSignificance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 , {}^{*}p<0.10 .\n   104\t\n   105\tFigure 7 and Table 7 repeat the estimation for the five diagnostic categories. From Table 7, the ATT estimates for hospitalizations due to mental and behavioral disorders are consistently negative and marginally significant at the 5 km buffer specification. Moreover, the estimates of hepatitis are also negative and of comparable magnitude but insignificant. However, the event-study path in Figure 7 shows a gradual decline that builds from year 3 onward, consistent with a slow-acting reduction in needle sharing. HIV estimates are insignificant and close to zero. Narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise after DCR opening and remain positive across all buffers. Lastly, fatal drug-related hospitalizations move in the opposite direction, falling after opening the DCR. The opposing patterns in narcotics and fatal hospitalizations suggest that DCRs convert events that would otherwise be fatal into survivable hospital contacts.\n   106\t\n   107\t### 6.1 Mechanisms\n   108\t\n   109\tThe sub-outcome results point to two channels through which DCRs reduce drug-related hospitalizations. The first is overdose supervision. DCRs provide a medically supervised environment where staff can control the dose consumed, perform resuscitation, and call emergency services when an overdose occurs. When supervision prevents a death that would otherwise happen outside a hospital, the consequence is a simultaneous decline in fatal drug-related hospitalizations and a rise in non-fatal poisoning contacts, as events that would have ended in death instead end in a hospital visit. The results are consistent with this prediction. Drug-related fatal hospitalizations fall near DCRs, by approximately 30% at 5 km, while narcotics and psychodysleptics hospitalizations rise by 47% at 5 km. The opposing signs and spatial concentration of these two effects are consistent with a\n   110\tsubstitution from out-of-hospital mortality to in-hospital survival. Since I cannot observe overdose events that do not result in a hospital contact, this interpretation is suggestive rather than identified, but it is consistent with the clinical evidence on DCR-based overdose reversals\n   111\t(Kerr et al., 2017; Hedrich, 2004).\n   112\t\n   113\tThe second channel is harm reduction for blood-borne diseases. DCRs distribute sterile injection equipment, which reduces needle sharing and the transmission of viral hepatitis and HIV. Unlike overdose prevention, these effects are expected to emerge slowly, since disease progression and hospitalization take years to follow from initial infection. The event-study path for hepatitis is consistent with this lag. The estimates are close to zero in the first two post-treatment years and become progressively more negative from year 3 onward, reaching approximately 40% below baseline by year 5. HIV estimates are near zero through out the analysis, with wide confidence intervals. A longer panel and additional out-patient data would be needed to determine whether these trends continue and to get more precise estimates.\n   114\t\n   115\tA third potential channel is referral to treatment and social services. DCRs routinely connect users to addiction treatment, primary care, and housing support, and a sustained reduction in hospitalizations could partly reflect better long-term management of drug dependence. The regional hospitalization panel used in this paper does not contain information on treatment entry or service use, so I cannot separate this channel from the two described above. It remains a plausible additional mechanism that future work with information on treatment take up data could examine.\n   116\t\n   117\tTable A19: Robustness: Overall ATT Across Estimators — 5 km buffer, \\pm 5-year window\n   118\t\n   119\t| CS-DR | Sun & Abraham | Synthetic DiD | Stacked DiD\n   120\t\n   121\tATT | -0.431** | -0.438** | -0.362* | -0.149***\n   122\t\n   123\t| (0.218) | (0.208) | (0.205) | (0.038)\n   124\t\n   125\t% change | -35.0% | -35.5% | -30.3% | -13.9%\n   126\t\n   127\tTreated regions | 50 | | |\n   128\t\n   129\tControl regions | 608 | | |\n   130\t\n   131\tObservations | 17,250 | | |\n   132\t\n   133\tNote: All specifications use the 5 km buffer,\n   134\tnever-treated comparison regions (640 regions), and a \\pm 5-year window","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"a88fd61e-4b95-49f1-934b-d0ad9a42c1a9","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:02.486Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2609.27732v1\n     2\tTitle: Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n     3\tAuthors: Ana Armendariz (University of St. Gallen)\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN], submitted 23 Sep 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.27732v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 22b06050f4ff6e665aedd80561fa4031b1717867ecfeca71d1d2902ee1b09f52)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, author, date and abstract; Section 6 'Results' in full (Figure notes, Table 6, Table 7, Section 6.1 'Mechanisms'); Appendix Table A19 with its note and the paragraph that discusses it.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-5 and 7, the other appendix tables and figures, the references.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n    13\t\n    14\tAna Armendariz*\n    15\t\n    16\tSeptember 23, 2026\n    17\t\n    18\tThis paper estimates the causal effect of drug consumption room (DCR) openings on drug-related hospitalizations in Switzerland. I exploit the staggered introduction of DCRs across Swiss cities between 1998 and 2022, using individual-level hospital records and a difference-in-differences estimator. DCR openings reduce drug-related hospitalization rates by roughly 35% within 5 km of a facility. The reduction is most pronounced for fatal outcomes, which fall by 35% while narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise by a comparable amount, consistent with DCRs converting potentially fatal overdoses into non-fatal hospitalizations. Mental and behavioral disorder hospitalizations decline by 32% while estimates for Hepatitis and HIV are imprecise. The findings support the role of DCRs as an effective harm reduction strategy.\n    19\t\n    20\tKeywords: Drug Consumption Rooms, Harm Reduction, Hospitalizations, Drugs, Public Health, Causal Inference\n    21\t\n    22\t## 6 Results\n    23\t\n    24\tThis section reports the effect of DCR openings on the rate of drug-related hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants. I begin with the event-study estimates and then present the overall pooled ATT. I then disaggregate the overall outcome into its sub-outcome categories and report the same estimates for each.\n    25\t\n    26\tFigure 6: Event study estimates by buffer zone, \\pm 5-year window\n    27\t\n    28\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust estimator of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) for regions within 5 km of a DCR opening. The comparison group consists of never-treated regions (608 control regions). The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a DCR that opened between 1998 and 2022 and all never-treated regions. The estimation uses a \\pm 5-year window relative to DCR opening, with t=-5 and t=+5 representing pooled endpoint bins that absorb all periods beyond the window. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded through out. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level. Results for the 1 km and 3 km buffer specifications are reported in Appendix Figure A17.\n    29\t\n    30\tFigure 6 presents the event study estimates for the 5 km buffer specifications. I focus on the 5 km buffer specification, as it includes the largest number of treated regions and yields the most precise estimates. I summarize dynamic effects over a symmetric five year window around DCR openings. This window avoids relying on distant leads and lags that are informed by only a small subset of adopters. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and statistically insignificant, supporting the parallel trends assumption. The post-treatment coefficients are consistently negative, indicating a reduction in drug-related hospitalizations following DCR openings. The estimates of the overall summary of ATTs based on calendar time aggregation of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) is around -35% reduction in hospitalizations due to drugs.\n    31\t\n    32\tTable 6: Overall Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT)\n    33\t\n    34\t| 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n    35\t\n    36\tATT | -0.399 | -0.283 | -0.431**\n    37\t\n    38\t| (0.412) | (0.279) | (0.210)\n    39\t\n    40\t% change | -32.9% | -24.7% | -35.0%\n    41\t\n    42\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n    43\t\n    44\tControl regions | 608 | 608 | 608\n    45\t\n    46\tObservations | 16,175 | 16,875 | 17,250\n    47\t\n    48\tNote: The table reports the overall ATT estimated using the doubly robust Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with never-treated controls and a universal base period. The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. Columns differ in the geographic buffer used to define treated Medstat regions. The control group consists of 608 never-treated Medstat regions\n    49\tthroughout. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998\n    50\t(always-treated) are excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level in\n    51\tparentheses. Significance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 ,\n    52\t{}^{*}p<0.10 .\n    53\t\n    54\tTable 6 reports the pooled ATT for the 1 km, 3 km and 5 km buffer specification, aggregating the dynamic treatment effects into a single estimate averaged across all post-treatment periods and cohorts. The 5 km specification, yields an ATT of -0.431\n    55\tcorresponding to a 35% reduction in the drug-related hospitalization rate. This estimate is statistically significant at the 5% level. The 3 km and 1 km estimates point in the same direction but are less precise, due to the smaller number of treated regions.\n    56\t\n    57\tTo further explore the mechanisms through which DCR openings affect drug-related hospitalizations, I disaggregate the main outcome into five diagnostic\n    58\tsub-categories: (i) mental and behavioral disorders due to psychoactive substance use, (ii) viral hepatitis, (iii) HIV, (iv) poisoning by narcotics and psychodysleptics, and (v) fatal drug-related hospitalizations. Accidental poisoning is excluded due to the very small number of cases.\n    59\t\n    60\tFigure 7: Event study: Sub-outcome estimates,\n    61\twithin 5 km, \\pm 5-year window\n    62\t\n    63\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator for four diagnostic sub-categories of drug-related hospitalizations. Each panel uses a separate y -axis to accommodate differences in scale across outcomes. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a\n    64\tDCR that opened between 1998 and 2022. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level.\n    65\t\n    66\tTable 7: Overall ATT by Outcome Category and Buffer Zone\n    67\t\n    68\tOutcome | 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n    69\t\n    70\tMental/Behavioral | -0.354 | -0.202 | -0.381*\n    71\t\n    72\t| (0.382) | (0.244) | (0.220)\n    73\t\n    74\tHepatitis | -0.270 | -0.413 | -0.406\n    75\t\n    76\t| (0.486) | (0.270) | (0.250)\n    77\t\n    78\tHIV | 0.063 | -0.239 | -0.340\n    79\t\n    80\t| (0.801) | (0.337) | (0.294)\n    81\t\n    82\tNarcotics | 1.186*** | 0.549*** | 0.390**\n    83\t\n    84\t| (0.288) | (0.187) | (0.165)\n    85\t\n    86\tDrug-related (fatal) | -1.207*** | -0.290 | -0.354**\n    87\t\n    88\t| (0.137) | (0.215) | (0.178)\n    89\t\n    90\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n    91\t\n    92\tControl regions | 608 (never-treated) | |\n    93\t\n    94\tNote: Each cell reports the overall ATT from\n    95\tthe doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with\n    96\tnever-treated controls and a universal base period. Outcomes are\n    97\tlog hospitalization rates per 100,000 inhabitants. Sub-outcomes:\n    98\tmental and behavioral disorders (F11–F19), viral hepatitis (B15–B19),\n    99\tHIV disease (B20–B24), narcotics/psychodysleptics (T40). The 1 km\n   100\testimates are identified from a single treated region per cohort and\n   101\tshould be interpreted with caution. Regions near DCRs opened before\n   102\t1998 excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level.\n   103\tSignificance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 , {}^{*}p<0.10 .\n   104\t\n   105\tFigure 7 and Table 7 repeat the estimation for the five diagnostic categories. From Table 7, the ATT estimates for hospitalizations due to mental and behavioral disorders are consistently negative and marginally significant at the 5 km buffer specification. Moreover, the estimates of hepatitis are also negative and of comparable magnitude but insignificant. However, the event-study path in Figure 7 shows a gradual decline that builds from year 3 onward, consistent with a slow-acting reduction in needle sharing. HIV estimates are insignificant and close to zero. Narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise after DCR opening and remain positive across all buffers. Lastly, fatal drug-related hospitalizations move in the opposite direction, falling after opening the DCR. The opposing patterns in narcotics and fatal hospitalizations suggest that DCRs convert events that would otherwise be fatal into survivable hospital contacts.\n   106\t\n   107\t### 6.1 Mechanisms\n   108\t\n   109\tThe sub-outcome results point to two channels through which DCRs reduce drug-related hospitalizations. The first is overdose supervision. DCRs provide a medically supervised environment where staff can control the dose consumed, perform resuscitation, and call emergency services when an overdose occurs. When supervision prevents a death that would otherwise happen outside a hospital, the consequence is a simultaneous decline in fatal drug-related hospitalizations and a rise in non-fatal poisoning contacts, as events that would have ended in death instead end in a hospital visit. The results are consistent with this prediction. Drug-related fatal hospitalizations fall near DCRs, by approximately 30% at 5 km, while narcotics and psychodysleptics hospitalizations rise by 47% at 5 km. The opposing signs and spatial concentration of these two effects are consistent with a\n   110\tsubstitution from out-of-hospital mortality to in-hospital survival. Since I cannot observe overdose events that do not result in a hospital contact, this interpretation is suggestive rather than identified, but it is consistent with the clinical evidence on DCR-based overdose reversals\n   111\t(Kerr et al., 2017; Hedrich, 2004).\n   112\t\n   113\tThe second channel is harm reduction for blood-borne diseases. DCRs distribute sterile injection equipment, which reduces needle sharing and the transmission of viral hepatitis and HIV. Unlike overdose prevention, these effects are expected to emerge slowly, since disease progression and hospitalization take years to follow from initial infection. The event-study path for hepatitis is consistent with this lag. The estimates are close to zero in the first two post-treatment years and become progressively more negative from year 3 onward, reaching approximately 40% below baseline by year 5. HIV estimates are near zero through out the analysis, with wide confidence intervals. A longer panel and additional out-patient data would be needed to determine whether these trends continue and to get more precise estimates.\n   114\t\n   115\tA third potential channel is referral to treatment and social services. DCRs routinely connect users to addiction treatment, primary care, and housing support, and a sustained reduction in hospitalizations could partly reflect better long-term management of drug dependence. The regional hospitalization panel used in this paper does not contain information on treatment entry or service use, so I cannot separate this channel from the two described above. It remains a plausible additional mechanism that future work with information on treatment take up data could examine.\n   116\t\n   117\tTable A19: Robustness: Overall ATT Across Estimators — 5 km buffer, \\pm 5-year window\n   118\t\n   119\t| CS-DR | Sun & Abraham | Synthetic DiD | Stacked DiD\n   120\t\n   121\tATT | -0.431** | -0.438** | -0.362* | -0.149***\n   122\t\n   123\t| (0.218) | (0.208) | (0.205) | (0.038)\n   124\t\n   125\t% change | -35.0% | -35.5% | -30.3% | -13.9%\n   126\t\n   127\tTreated regions | 50 | | |\n   128\t\n   129\tControl regions | 608 | | |\n   130\t\n   131\tObservations | 17,250 | | |\n   132\t\n   133\tNote: All specifications use the 5 km buffer,\n   134\tnever-treated comparison regions (640 regions), and a \\pm 5-year window","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"5daba2ee-7020-4f6a-ae91-bae9341a21b3","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}26{"parentUuid":"a88fd61e-4b95-49f1-934b-d0ad9a42c1a9","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrHVGU1v6FKHUWja7QZ","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01Wusx9avQ8w25dN219appxz","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt","description":"Read RESEA extract"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":4535,"cache_read_input_tokens":6766,"output_tokens":207,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":0},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":4535},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":2,"requestId":"req_011CgXrHV3q7zLTtJG7tzcyB","requestRef":"7597d1a4-e99c-4c2f-8468-20e5b6966284","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"ca1bb3e9-106a-47a9-8f11-6a7f473ed9f5","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:02.987Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}27{"parentUuid":"ca1bb3e9-106a-47a9-8f11-6a7f473ed9f5","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f9f57fbc-a9e1-4f82-bec9-e476caed3cfb","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01Wusx9avQ8w25dN219appxz","type":"tool_result","content":"     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2606.14621v1\n     2\tTitle: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n     3\tAuthors: Harrison H. Li; Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz; David Yokum\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN], submitted 12 Jun 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.14621v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f98fb1b39edd2107051cddf1da34aa8cf19e74e04d60bf9305a88cf966417da1)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Results' (Table 2 with caption, the results paragraphs, Section 3.1 'Cost-benefit analysis'); from Section 4.1, Table 3 with its caption and the paragraph that discusses it.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2, Table 1, Section 3.2 (heterogeneous effects), the rest of Section 4, the references and the appendix.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\tEditorial note: Tables 2 and 3 were re-set in a one-row-per-outcome layout because the HTML rendering split each outcome over three rows and detached the p-values from their columns; the p-values and confidence intervals are attached to the column they belong to in the original (first p-value = treatment-control difference, second = average treatment effect).\n    11\t================================================================\n    12\t\n    13\t# Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n    14\t\n    15\tHarrison H. Li (Harvey Mudd College), Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz (University of Maryland, College Park), David Yokum (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)\n    16\t\n    17\t###### Abstract\n    18\t\n    19\tProlonged unemployment carries serious economic, health, and wellbeing costs. With federal support, most U.S. states now operate a Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program to help Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants return to work faster. We report results from a large (N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating Rhode Island’s RESEA program from February 2022 to September 2023. We estimate that selection into the program increased annualized wages by $1,153, increased reemployment by 1.5 percentage points, and reduced UI duration by nearly two weeks. The vast majority of these wage and reemployment effects appeared within two quarters of claimants’ first pay dates and persisted through at least the following year, and we estimate that each dollar spent on the program saved the state $2.64. Using causal forests, a machine learning technique for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), we also conduct an exploratory analysis to investigate if there are differential effects of selection into the RESEA program. We find that all participants experienced positive wage benefits from RESEA selection, with particularly large effects for older and lower-income workers. Finally, we improve upon prior RESEA evaluations by explicitly controlling for the week of treatment assignment — a methodological refinement absent from several existing RCTs of job-training programs that is important to eliminate confounding bias. We also discuss ways to harvest precision gains from baseline covariate adjustment without introducing large-sample bias.\n    20\t\n    21\t## 3 Results\n    22\t\n    23\t[Table 1 (pre-treatment characteristics) omitted from this extract.]\n    24\t\n    25\t[Table 2 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering, in which each outcome occupied three table rows; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate]\n    26\t\n    27\tOutcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate\n    28\tWage | $33,073 (SD: 36,749) | $33,043 (SD: 36,231) | $29; p=0.95; 95% CI: [-903, 962] | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\n    29\tReemployment | 75.2% | 75.0% | 0.26 pp; p=0.64; 95% CI: [-0.84, 1.37] | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]\n    30\tWeeks on UI | 15.2 weeks (SD: 9.3) | 17.3 weeks (SD: 9.4) | -2.10 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.34, -1.86] | -1.99 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75]\n    31\tShort-term wage | $23,776 (SD: 31,948) | $23,897 (SD: 32,293) | -$121; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-941, 700] | $1,195; p=0.007; 95% CI: [326, 2,064]\n    32\tShort-term reemployment | 61.4% | 61.6% | -0.18 pp; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-1.43, 1.06] | 1.66 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]\n    33\tShort-term weeks on UI | 14.2 weeks (SD: 8.4) | 15.9 weeks (SD: 8.3) | -1.70 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.92, -1.49] | -1.77 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.99, -1.55]\n    34\t\n    35\tTable 2: The average values of our long-term and short-term outcomes for the aggregate treatment and control groups in the study cohort, along with information about the differences in these averages between the treatment and control groups and our average treatment effect estimates. For the average outcomes, standard deviations are given in parentheses for the quantitative outcomes (wage and weeks on UI). For the treatment-control differences and the average treatment effect estimates, we provide two-sided p -values and 95% confidence intervals based on Welch’s two-sample t -test and the methodology described in the main text, respectively. The two rightmost columns illustrate how direct comparisons of outcome averages between the aggregate treatment and control groups can lead to significantly biased causal conclusions.\n    36\t\n    37\tOverall, we find that RESEA selection led to a statistically significant improvement in all three of the preregistered outcomes. RESEA selection led to a wage outcome that was $1,153 higher annually (95% CI: [$166, $2,141]; p=0.022 ), a 3.5% increase relative to the mean wage outcome of $33,043 in the control group (Table 2). There was also an estimated 1.47 percentage point increase in reemployment (95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]; p=0.013 ) and a 1.99 week reduction in the number of weeks on UI (95% CI: [1.75 weeks, 2.24 weeks]; p<0.001 ) due to RESEA selection. The latter is an 11.5% decrease compared to the mean control group weeks on UI outcome of 17.3 weeks. All three of these results remain statistically significant after correcting for multiple testing using Holm’s method to keep the familywise error rate below 5 percent.\n    38\t\n    39\tThe results for the short-term outcomes are substantively similar to those for the longer-term outcomes (Table 2). We estimate RESEA selection leads to a short-term wage outcome that is $1,195 higher (95% CI: [$326, $2,064]; p = 0.007) on an annualized basis and a 1.66 percentage point higher rate of short-term reemployment (95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]; p = 0.012). Given that the magnitudes of these causal estimates are very similar to those for the corresponding long-term outcomes, this suggests that the full impact of RESEA selection on wages and reemployment appears quickly by the second quarter after randomization, and persists for at least five quarters. We also find that those selected for RESEA spend 1.77 fewer weeks on UI in the benefit year of their claim (95% CI: [1.55 weeks, 1.99 weeks]; p ¡ 0.001). As this is a bit smaller than the effect size of 1.99 weeks estimated for the long term weeks on UI outcome, which includes an additional 26 weeks beyond the benefit year, we see some directional evidence that RESEA selection may also reduce the time spent on UI in the following year, suggesting that it may be helping claimants find employment that lasts longer, thereby reducing repetitive use of UI benefits.\n    40\t\n    41\tAs noted earlier, wages and reemployment are artificially zero-inflated due to missing out-of-state wage data. The Rhode Island job market is tightly integrated with those of the neighboring states of Massachusetts and Connecticut; the 2016-2020 5-Year American Community Survey found that nearly 16 percent of Rhode Island workers 16 years and older commuted out of state, mainly to Massachusetts. We note, however, that this missingness should not affect the directional validity of our causal analysis. This is because randomization ensures that this missingness is balanced between the treatment and control groups (within each block), unless RESEA selection itself differentially helps or hinders finding employment out of state or self-employment. To investigate this, we examined the presence of individuals who failed to exhaust their UI benefits in the benefit year of their claim while having $0 in reported RI wages for all of the five complete quarters after randomization. There were 3,325 claimants falling into this group, including 1,618 individuals (13.7%) in the aggregate control group and 1,707 individuals (14.6%) in the aggregate treatment group. After controlling for randomization week, this difference in proportions was not significant ( p = 0.55). The lack of statistical significance on this test with our large sample size along with the fact that the Rhode Island job database focuses overwhelmingly on jobs offered by Rhode Island employers suggests that RESEA selection does not differentially assist in finding out-of-state employment or self-employment.\n    42\t\n    43\t### 3.1 Cost-benefit analysis\n    44\t\n    45\tWe find that the decrease in time spent drawing UI benefits due to RESEA selection corresponds to a considerable cost savings to the state from paying out a smaller amount of UI benefits. We estimate that the average individual selected for RESEA during the study period drew $676 less (95% CI: [$563, $789], p<0.001 ) in UI benefits during the same benefit year of their claim than they would have if they were not selected for RESEA. This is a 9.9 percent reduction relative to the control group average of $6,839 in UI benefits drawn during the benefit year of the claim. Multiplying the estimate by the total number of individuals selected for RESEA in the study ( n=11,700 ) suggests that as a result of the program, the state paid out about $7.9 million fewer in UI benefits to claimants randomized during the study period over the same benefit year as their UI claims. This is much higher than the total expenditures of $2.99 million for the RESEA program over the study period, representing $2.64 in savings for the state budget for every $1 spent on the program.\n    46\t\n    47\t### 4.1 Methodological lessons (excerpt)\n    48\t\n    49\t[Table 3 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression]\n    50\t\n    51\tOutcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression\n    52\tWage | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141] | $1,137; p=0.014; 95% CI: [228, 2,047] | $1,100; p=0.027; 95% CI: [127, 2,073]\n    53\tReemployment | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62] | 1.48 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.63] | 1.49 pp; p=0.011; 95% CI: [0.34, 2.64]\n    54\tWeeks on UI | -1.99 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75] | -1.93 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.18, -1.68] | -1.97 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.22, -1.72]\n    55\t\n    56\tTable 3: A comparison of the ITT estimates, two-sided p -values, and 95% confidence intervals for our primary outcomes from three different methodologies: the preregistered analysis based on eq. (1), the covariate adjusted analysis based on eq. (2), and the fixed effects regression in eq. (3). The leftmost column based on the preregistered analysis duplicates the rightmost column in Table 2 for ease of comparison.\n    57\t\n    58\tIf we directly compared treatment group and control group outcome averages without accounting for the week of randomization, the results would suggest RESEA selection had no detectable average effect on the wage and reemployment outcomes (column 4, Table 2). However, such an analysis is potentially biased under the experimental design because it does not respect the blocked randomization, which makes the week of randomization a known confounder. For example, weeks with a larger number of UI applicants, which had a higher proportion of control group individuals, tended to have lower-earning applicants (Fig. 7), thereby inflating the average wage outcome in the control group relative to the treatment group. This is critical because out of the thirteen publically available studies of RESEA-related employment assistance programs rated by CLEAR as having high causal evidence, six used block randomization like we do, yet only two of these (Black, Smith, Berger, & Noel., 2002; Klerman et al., 2019) properly adjusted for the block. Three others among these six studies used regression or matching methods in an attempt to control for observed demographic variables but not the block (Poe-Yamagata et al., 2011; Michaelides et al., 2012; Manoli et al., 2018), while the remaining study (Michaelides & Mueser, 2018) fit a linear regression model with the block indicators as fixed effects, as did two other more recent evaluations in Nevada (Michaelides & Mian, 2021; Brigandi et al., 2024) . These fixed effects regressions amount to estimating the coefficient in the regression model","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"fefe73ac-6795-4cfa-8544-c9f3f85f1ac6","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:03.015Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2606.14621v1\n     2\tTitle: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n     3\tAuthors: Harrison H. Li; Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz; David Yokum\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN], submitted 12 Jun 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.14621v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f98fb1b39edd2107051cddf1da34aa8cf19e74e04d60bf9305a88cf966417da1)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Results' (Table 2 with caption, the results paragraphs, Section 3.1 'Cost-benefit analysis'); from Section 4.1, Table 3 with its caption and the paragraph that discusses it.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2, Table 1, Section 3.2 (heterogeneous effects), the rest of Section 4, the references and the appendix.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\tEditorial note: Tables 2 and 3 were re-set in a one-row-per-outcome layout because the HTML rendering split each outcome over three rows and detached the p-values from their columns; the p-values and confidence intervals are attached to the column they belong to in the original (first p-value = treatment-control difference, second = average treatment effect).\n    11\t================================================================\n    12\t\n    13\t# Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n    14\t\n    15\tHarrison H. Li (Harvey Mudd College), Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz (University of Maryland, College Park), David Yokum (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)\n    16\t\n    17\t###### Abstract\n    18\t\n    19\tProlonged unemployment carries serious economic, health, and wellbeing costs. With federal support, most U.S. states now operate a Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program to help Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants return to work faster. We report results from a large (N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating Rhode Island’s RESEA program from February 2022 to September 2023. We estimate that selection into the program increased annualized wages by $1,153, increased reemployment by 1.5 percentage points, and reduced UI duration by nearly two weeks. The vast majority of these wage and reemployment effects appeared within two quarters of claimants’ first pay dates and persisted through at least the following year, and we estimate that each dollar spent on the program saved the state $2.64. Using causal forests, a machine learning technique for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), we also conduct an exploratory analysis to investigate if there are differential effects of selection into the RESEA program. We find that all participants experienced positive wage benefits from RESEA selection, with particularly large effects for older and lower-income workers. Finally, we improve upon prior RESEA evaluations by explicitly controlling for the week of treatment assignment — a methodological refinement absent from several existing RCTs of job-training programs that is important to eliminate confounding bias. We also discuss ways to harvest precision gains from baseline covariate adjustment without introducing large-sample bias.\n    20\t\n    21\t## 3 Results\n    22\t\n    23\t[Table 1 (pre-treatment characteristics) omitted from this extract.]\n    24\t\n    25\t[Table 2 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering, in which each outcome occupied three table rows; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate]\n    26\t\n    27\tOutcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate\n    28\tWage | $33,073 (SD: 36,749) | $33,043 (SD: 36,231) | $29; p=0.95; 95% CI: [-903, 962] | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\n    29\tReemployment | 75.2% | 75.0% | 0.26 pp; p=0.64; 95% CI: [-0.84, 1.37] | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]\n    30\tWeeks on UI | 15.2 weeks (SD: 9.3) | 17.3 weeks (SD: 9.4) | -2.10 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.34, -1.86] | -1.99 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75]\n    31\tShort-term wage | $23,776 (SD: 31,948) | $23,897 (SD: 32,293) | -$121; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-941, 700] | $1,195; p=0.007; 95% CI: [326, 2,064]\n    32\tShort-term reemployment | 61.4% | 61.6% | -0.18 pp; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-1.43, 1.06] | 1.66 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]\n    33\tShort-term weeks on UI | 14.2 weeks (SD: 8.4) | 15.9 weeks (SD: 8.3) | -1.70 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.92, -1.49] | -1.77 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.99, -1.55]\n    34\t\n    35\tTable 2: The average values of our long-term and short-term outcomes for the aggregate treatment and control groups in the study cohort, along with information about the differences in these averages between the treatment and control groups and our average treatment effect estimates. For the average outcomes, standard deviations are given in parentheses for the quantitative outcomes (wage and weeks on UI). For the treatment-control differences and the average treatment effect estimates, we provide two-sided p -values and 95% confidence intervals based on Welch’s two-sample t -test and the methodology described in the main text, respectively. The two rightmost columns illustrate how direct comparisons of outcome averages between the aggregate treatment and control groups can lead to significantly biased causal conclusions.\n    36\t\n    37\tOverall, we find that RESEA selection led to a statistically significant improvement in all three of the preregistered outcomes. RESEA selection led to a wage outcome that was $1,153 higher annually (95% CI: [$166, $2,141]; p=0.022 ), a 3.5% increase relative to the mean wage outcome of $33,043 in the control group (Table 2). There was also an estimated 1.47 percentage point increase in reemployment (95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]; p=0.013 ) and a 1.99 week reduction in the number of weeks on UI (95% CI: [1.75 weeks, 2.24 weeks]; p<0.001 ) due to RESEA selection. The latter is an 11.5% decrease compared to the mean control group weeks on UI outcome of 17.3 weeks. All three of these results remain statistically significant after correcting for multiple testing using Holm’s method to keep the familywise error rate below 5 percent.\n    38\t\n    39\tThe results for the short-term outcomes are substantively similar to those for the longer-term outcomes (Table 2). We estimate RESEA selection leads to a short-term wage outcome that is $1,195 higher (95% CI: [$326, $2,064]; p = 0.007) on an annualized basis and a 1.66 percentage point higher rate of short-term reemployment (95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]; p = 0.012). Given that the magnitudes of these causal estimates are very similar to those for the corresponding long-term outcomes, this suggests that the full impact of RESEA selection on wages and reemployment appears quickly by the second quarter after randomization, and persists for at least five quarters. We also find that those selected for RESEA spend 1.77 fewer weeks on UI in the benefit year of their claim (95% CI: [1.55 weeks, 1.99 weeks]; p ¡ 0.001). As this is a bit smaller than the effect size of 1.99 weeks estimated for the long term weeks on UI outcome, which includes an additional 26 weeks beyond the benefit year, we see some directional evidence that RESEA selection may also reduce the time spent on UI in the following year, suggesting that it may be helping claimants find employment that lasts longer, thereby reducing repetitive use of UI benefits.\n    40\t\n    41\tAs noted earlier, wages and reemployment are artificially zero-inflated due to missing out-of-state wage data. The Rhode Island job market is tightly integrated with those of the neighboring states of Massachusetts and Connecticut; the 2016-2020 5-Year American Community Survey found that nearly 16 percent of Rhode Island workers 16 years and older commuted out of state, mainly to Massachusetts. We note, however, that this missingness should not affect the directional validity of our causal analysis. This is because randomization ensures that this missingness is balanced between the treatment and control groups (within each block), unless RESEA selection itself differentially helps or hinders finding employment out of state or self-employment. To investigate this, we examined the presence of individuals who failed to exhaust their UI benefits in the benefit year of their claim while having $0 in reported RI wages for all of the five complete quarters after randomization. There were 3,325 claimants falling into this group, including 1,618 individuals (13.7%) in the aggregate control group and 1,707 individuals (14.6%) in the aggregate treatment group. After controlling for randomization week, this difference in proportions was not significant ( p = 0.55). The lack of statistical significance on this test with our large sample size along with the fact that the Rhode Island job database focuses overwhelmingly on jobs offered by Rhode Island employers suggests that RESEA selection does not differentially assist in finding out-of-state employment or self-employment.\n    42\t\n    43\t### 3.1 Cost-benefit analysis\n    44\t\n    45\tWe find that the decrease in time spent drawing UI benefits due to RESEA selection corresponds to a considerable cost savings to the state from paying out a smaller amount of UI benefits. We estimate that the average individual selected for RESEA during the study period drew $676 less (95% CI: [$563, $789], p<0.001 ) in UI benefits during the same benefit year of their claim than they would have if they were not selected for RESEA. This is a 9.9 percent reduction relative to the control group average of $6,839 in UI benefits drawn during the benefit year of the claim. Multiplying the estimate by the total number of individuals selected for RESEA in the study ( n=11,700 ) suggests that as a result of the program, the state paid out about $7.9 million fewer in UI benefits to claimants randomized during the study period over the same benefit year as their UI claims. This is much higher than the total expenditures of $2.99 million for the RESEA program over the study period, representing $2.64 in savings for the state budget for every $1 spent on the program.\n    46\t\n    47\t### 4.1 Methodological lessons (excerpt)\n    48\t\n    49\t[Table 3 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression]\n    50\t\n    51\tOutcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression\n    52\tWage | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141] | $1,137; p=0.014; 95% CI: [228, 2,047] | $1,100; p=0.027; 95% CI: [127, 2,073]\n    53\tReemployment | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62] | 1.48 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.63] | 1.49 pp; p=0.011; 95% CI: [0.34, 2.64]\n    54\tWeeks on UI | -1.99 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75] | -1.93 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.18, -1.68] | -1.97 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.22, -1.72]\n    55\t\n    56\tTable 3: A comparison of the ITT estimates, two-sided p -values, and 95% confidence intervals for our primary outcomes from three different methodologies: the preregistered analysis based on eq. (1), the covariate adjusted analysis based on eq. (2), and the fixed effects regression in eq. (3). The leftmost column based on the preregistered analysis duplicates the rightmost column in Table 2 for ease of comparison.\n    57\t\n    58\tIf we directly compared treatment group and control group outcome averages without accounting for the week of randomization, the results would suggest RESEA selection had no detectable average effect on the wage and reemployment outcomes (column 4, Table 2). However, such an analysis is potentially biased under the experimental design because it does not respect the blocked randomization, which makes the week of randomization a known confounder. For example, weeks with a larger number of UI applicants, which had a higher proportion of control group individuals, tended to have lower-earning applicants (Fig. 7), thereby inflating the average wage outcome in the control group relative to the treatment group. This is critical because out of the thirteen publically available studies of RESEA-related employment assistance programs rated by CLEAR as having high causal evidence, six used block randomization like we do, yet only two of these (Black, Smith, Berger, & Noel., 2002; Klerman et al., 2019) properly adjusted for the block. Three others among these six studies used regression or matching methods in an attempt to control for observed demographic variables but not the block (Poe-Yamagata et al., 2011; Michaelides et al., 2012; Manoli et al., 2018), while the remaining study (Michaelides & Mueser, 2018) fit a linear regression model with the block indicators as fixed effects, as did two other more recent evaluations in Nevada (Michaelides & Mian, 2021; Brigandi et al., 2024) . These fixed effects regressions amount to estimating the coefficient in the regression model","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"ca1bb3e9-106a-47a9-8f11-6a7f473ed9f5","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}28{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","hash":"c24b5f432c8f0c91de779d9ff48c9f524cd1c766598c1b1ae6a8a8874a44498e","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Hashes match. Now the sources."},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01JBxPuL42FyZ1Pf2yT7tdVt","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt","description":"Read Armendariz extract"}},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01Wusx9avQ8w25dN219appxz","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt","description":"Read RESEA extract"}}]}}29{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","hash":"36d1916dcc8053e4da6eeb870c1aaab0301b0f59c2290bb0d5faa428907d12b5","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01JBxPuL42FyZ1Pf2yT7tdVt","type":"tool_result","content":"     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2609.27732v1\n     2\tTitle: Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n     3\tAuthors: Ana Armendariz (University of St. Gallen)\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN], submitted 23 Sep 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.27732v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 22b06050f4ff6e665aedd80561fa4031b1717867ecfeca71d1d2902ee1b09f52)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, author, date and abstract; Section 6 'Results' in full (Figure notes, Table 6, Table 7, Section 6.1 'Mechanisms'); Appendix Table A19 with its note and the paragraph that discusses it.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-5 and 7, the other appendix tables and figures, the references.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n    13\t\n    14\tAna Armendariz*\n    15\t\n    16\tSeptember 23, 2026\n    17\t\n    18\tThis paper estimates the causal effect of drug consumption room (DCR) openings on drug-related hospitalizations in Switzerland. I exploit the staggered introduction of DCRs across Swiss cities between 1998 and 2022, using individual-level hospital records and a difference-in-differences estimator. DCR openings reduce drug-related hospitalization rates by roughly 35% within 5 km of a facility. The reduction is most pronounced for fatal outcomes, which fall by 35% while narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise by a comparable amount, consistent with DCRs converting potentially fatal overdoses into non-fatal hospitalizations. Mental and behavioral disorder hospitalizations decline by 32% while estimates for Hepatitis and HIV are imprecise. The findings support the role of DCRs as an effective harm reduction strategy.\n    19\t\n    20\tKeywords: Drug Consumption Rooms, Harm Reduction, Hospitalizations, Drugs, Public Health, Causal Inference\n    21\t\n    22\t## 6 Results\n    23\t\n    24\tThis section reports the effect of DCR openings on the rate of drug-related hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants. I begin with the event-study estimates and then present the overall pooled ATT. I then disaggregate the overall outcome into its sub-outcome categories and report the same estimates for each.\n    25\t\n    26\tFigure 6: Event study estimates by buffer zone, \\pm 5-year window\n    27\t\n    28\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust estimator of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) for regions within 5 km of a DCR opening. The comparison group consists of never-treated regions (608 control regions). The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a DCR that opened between 1998 and 2022 and all never-treated regions. The estimation uses a \\pm 5-year window relative to DCR opening, with t=-5 and t=+5 representing pooled endpoint bins that absorb all periods beyond the window. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded through out. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level. Results for the 1 km and 3 km buffer specifications are reported in Appendix Figure A17.\n    29\t\n    30\tFigure 6 presents the event study estimates for the 5 km buffer specifications. I focus on the 5 km buffer specification, as it includes the largest number of treated regions and yields the most precise estimates. I summarize dynamic effects over a symmetric five year window around DCR openings. This window avoids relying on distant leads and lags that are informed by only a small subset of adopters. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and statistically insignificant, supporting the parallel trends assumption. The post-treatment coefficients are consistently negative, indicating a reduction in drug-related hospitalizations following DCR openings. The estimates of the overall summary of ATTs based on calendar time aggregation of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) is around -35% reduction in hospitalizations due to drugs.\n    31\t\n    32\tTable 6: Overall Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT)\n    33\t\n    34\t| 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n    35\t\n    36\tATT | -0.399 | -0.283 | -0.431**\n    37\t\n    38\t| (0.412) | (0.279) | (0.210)\n    39\t\n    40\t% change | -32.9% | -24.7% | -35.0%\n    41\t\n    42\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n    43\t\n    44\tControl regions | 608 | 608 | 608\n    45\t\n    46\tObservations | 16,175 | 16,875 | 17,250\n    47\t\n    48\tNote: The table reports the overall ATT estimated using the doubly robust Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with never-treated controls and a universal base period. The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. Columns differ in the geographic buffer used to define treated Medstat regions. The control group consists of 608 never-treated Medstat regions\n    49\tthroughout. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998\n    50\t(always-treated) are excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level in\n    51\tparentheses. Significance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 ,\n    52\t{}^{*}p<0.10 .\n    53\t\n    54\tTable 6 reports the pooled ATT for the 1 km, 3 km and 5 km buffer specification, aggregating the dynamic treatment effects into a single estimate averaged across all post-treatment periods and cohorts. The 5 km specification, yields an ATT of -0.431\n    55\tcorresponding to a 35% reduction in the drug-related hospitalization rate. This estimate is statistically significant at the 5% level. The 3 km and 1 km estimates point in the same direction but are less precise, due to the smaller number of treated regions.\n    56\t\n    57\tTo further explore the mechanisms through which DCR openings affect drug-related hospitalizations, I disaggregate the main outcome into five diagnostic\n    58\tsub-categories: (i) mental and behavioral disorders due to psychoactive substance use, (ii) viral hepatitis, (iii) HIV, (iv) poisoning by narcotics and psychodysleptics, and (v) fatal drug-related hospitalizations. Accidental poisoning is excluded due to the very small number of cases.\n    59\t\n    60\tFigure 7: Event study: Sub-outcome estimates,\n    61\twithin 5 km, \\pm 5-year window\n    62\t\n    63\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator for four diagnostic sub-categories of drug-related hospitalizations. Each panel uses a separate y -axis to accommodate differences in scale across outcomes. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a\n    64\tDCR that opened between 1998 and 2022. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level.\n    65\t\n    66\tTable 7: Overall ATT by Outcome Category and Buffer Zone\n    67\t\n    68\tOutcome | 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n    69\t\n    70\tMental/Behavioral | -0.354 | -0.202 | -0.381*\n    71\t\n    72\t| (0.382) | (0.244) | (0.220)\n    73\t\n    74\tHepatitis | -0.270 | -0.413 | -0.406\n    75\t\n    76\t| (0.486) | (0.270) | (0.250)\n    77\t\n    78\tHIV | 0.063 | -0.239 | -0.340\n    79\t\n    80\t| (0.801) | (0.337) | (0.294)\n    81\t\n    82\tNarcotics | 1.186*** | 0.549*** | 0.390**\n    83\t\n    84\t| (0.288) | (0.187) | (0.165)\n    85\t\n    86\tDrug-related (fatal) | -1.207*** | -0.290 | -0.354**\n    87\t\n    88\t| (0.137) | (0.215) | (0.178)\n    89\t\n    90\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n    91\t\n    92\tControl regions | 608 (never-treated) | |\n    93\t\n    94\tNote: Each cell reports the overall ATT from\n    95\tthe doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with\n    96\tnever-treated controls and a universal base period. Outcomes are\n    97\tlog hospitalization rates per 100,000 inhabitants. Sub-outcomes:\n    98\tmental and behavioral disorders (F11–F19), viral hepatitis (B15–B19),\n    99\tHIV disease (B20–B24), narcotics/psychodysleptics (T40). The 1 km\n   100\testimates are identified from a single treated region per cohort and\n   101\tshould be interpreted with caution. Regions near DCRs opened before\n   102\t1998 excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level.\n   103\tSignificance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 , {}^{*}p<0.10 .\n   104\t\n   105\tFigure 7 and Table 7 repeat the estimation for the five diagnostic categories. From Table 7, the ATT estimates for hospitalizations due to mental and behavioral disorders are consistently negative and marginally significant at the 5 km buffer specification. Moreover, the estimates of hepatitis are also negative and of comparable magnitude but insignificant. However, the event-study path in Figure 7 shows a gradual decline that builds from year 3 onward, consistent with a slow-acting reduction in needle sharing. HIV estimates are insignificant and close to zero. Narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise after DCR opening and remain positive across all buffers. Lastly, fatal drug-related hospitalizations move in the opposite direction, falling after opening the DCR. The opposing patterns in narcotics and fatal hospitalizations suggest that DCRs convert events that would otherwise be fatal into survivable hospital contacts.\n   106\t\n   107\t### 6.1 Mechanisms\n   108\t\n   109\tThe sub-outcome results point to two channels through which DCRs reduce drug-related hospitalizations. The first is overdose supervision. DCRs provide a medically supervised environment where staff can control the dose consumed, perform resuscitation, and call emergency services when an overdose occurs. When supervision prevents a death that would otherwise happen outside a hospital, the consequence is a simultaneous decline in fatal drug-related hospitalizations and a rise in non-fatal poisoning contacts, as events that would have ended in death instead end in a hospital visit. The results are consistent with this prediction. Drug-related fatal hospitalizations fall near DCRs, by approximately 30% at 5 km, while narcotics and psychodysleptics hospitalizations rise by 47% at 5 km. The opposing signs and spatial concentration of these two effects are consistent with a\n   110\tsubstitution from out-of-hospital mortality to in-hospital survival. Since I cannot observe overdose events that do not result in a hospital contact, this interpretation is suggestive rather than identified, but it is consistent with the clinical evidence on DCR-based overdose reversals\n   111\t(Kerr et al., 2017; Hedrich, 2004).\n   112\t\n   113\tThe second channel is harm reduction for blood-borne diseases. DCRs distribute sterile injection equipment, which reduces needle sharing and the transmission of viral hepatitis and HIV. Unlike overdose prevention, these effects are expected to emerge slowly, since disease progression and hospitalization take years to follow from initial infection. The event-study path for hepatitis is consistent with this lag. The estimates are close to zero in the first two post-treatment years and become progressively more negative from year 3 onward, reaching approximately 40% below baseline by year 5. HIV estimates are near zero through out the analysis, with wide confidence intervals. A longer panel and additional out-patient data would be needed to determine whether these trends continue and to get more precise estimates.\n   114\t\n   115\tA third potential channel is referral to treatment and social services. DCRs routinely connect users to addiction treatment, primary care, and housing support, and a sustained reduction in hospitalizations could partly reflect better long-term management of drug dependence. The regional hospitalization panel used in this paper does not contain information on treatment entry or service use, so I cannot separate this channel from the two described above. It remains a plausible additional mechanism that future work with information on treatment take up data could examine.\n   116\t\n   117\tTable A19: Robustness: Overall ATT Across Estimators — 5 km buffer, \\pm 5-year window\n   118\t\n   119\t| CS-DR | Sun & Abraham | Synthetic DiD | Stacked DiD\n   120\t\n   121\tATT | -0.431** | -0.438** | -0.362* | -0.149***\n   122\t\n   123\t| (0.218) | (0.208) | (0.205) | (0.038)\n   124\t\n   125\t% change | -35.0% | -35.5% | -30.3% | -13.9%\n   126\t\n   127\tTreated regions | 50 | | |\n   128\t\n   129\tControl regions | 608 | | |\n   130\t\n   131\tObservations | 17,250 | | |\n   132\t\n   133\tNote: All specifications use the 5 km buffer,\n   134\tnever-treated comparison regions (640 regions), and a \\pm 5-year window","is_error":false},{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01Wusx9avQ8w25dN219appxz","type":"tool_result","content":"     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2606.14621v1\n     2\tTitle: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n     3\tAuthors: Harrison H. Li; Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz; David Yokum\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN], submitted 12 Jun 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.14621v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f98fb1b39edd2107051cddf1da34aa8cf19e74e04d60bf9305a88cf966417da1)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Results' (Table 2 with caption, the results paragraphs, Section 3.1 'Cost-benefit analysis'); from Section 4.1, Table 3 with its caption and the paragraph that discusses it.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2, Table 1, Section 3.2 (heterogeneous effects), the rest of Section 4, the references and the appendix.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\tEditorial note: Tables 2 and 3 were re-set in a one-row-per-outcome layout because the HTML rendering split each outcome over three rows and detached the p-values from their columns; the p-values and confidence intervals are attached to the column they belong to in the original (first p-value = treatment-control difference, second = average treatment effect).\n    11\t================================================================\n    12\t\n    13\t# Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n    14\t\n    15\tHarrison H. Li (Harvey Mudd College), Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz (University of Maryland, College Park), David Yokum (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)\n    16\t\n    17\t###### Abstract\n    18\t\n    19\tProlonged unemployment carries serious economic, health, and wellbeing costs. With federal support, most U.S. states now operate a Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program to help Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants return to work faster. We report results from a large (N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating Rhode Island’s RESEA program from February 2022 to September 2023. We estimate that selection into the program increased annualized wages by $1,153, increased reemployment by 1.5 percentage points, and reduced UI duration by nearly two weeks. The vast majority of these wage and reemployment effects appeared within two quarters of claimants’ first pay dates and persisted through at least the following year, and we estimate that each dollar spent on the program saved the state $2.64. Using causal forests, a machine learning technique for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), we also conduct an exploratory analysis to investigate if there are differential effects of selection into the RESEA program. We find that all participants experienced positive wage benefits from RESEA selection, with particularly large effects for older and lower-income workers. Finally, we improve upon prior RESEA evaluations by explicitly controlling for the week of treatment assignment — a methodological refinement absent from several existing RCTs of job-training programs that is important to eliminate confounding bias. We also discuss ways to harvest precision gains from baseline covariate adjustment without introducing large-sample bias.\n    20\t\n    21\t## 3 Results\n    22\t\n    23\t[Table 1 (pre-treatment characteristics) omitted from this extract.]\n    24\t\n    25\t[Table 2 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering, in which each outcome occupied three table rows; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate]\n    26\t\n    27\tOutcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate\n    28\tWage | $33,073 (SD: 36,749) | $33,043 (SD: 36,231) | $29; p=0.95; 95% CI: [-903, 962] | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\n    29\tReemployment | 75.2% | 75.0% | 0.26 pp; p=0.64; 95% CI: [-0.84, 1.37] | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]\n    30\tWeeks on UI | 15.2 weeks (SD: 9.3) | 17.3 weeks (SD: 9.4) | -2.10 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.34, -1.86] | -1.99 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75]\n    31\tShort-term wage | $23,776 (SD: 31,948) | $23,897 (SD: 32,293) | -$121; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-941, 700] | $1,195; p=0.007; 95% CI: [326, 2,064]\n    32\tShort-term reemployment | 61.4% | 61.6% | -0.18 pp; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-1.43, 1.06] | 1.66 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]\n    33\tShort-term weeks on UI | 14.2 weeks (SD: 8.4) | 15.9 weeks (SD: 8.3) | -1.70 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.92, -1.49] | -1.77 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.99, -1.55]\n    34\t\n    35\tTable 2: The average values of our long-term and short-term outcomes for the aggregate treatment and control groups in the study cohort, along with information about the differences in these averages between the treatment and control groups and our average treatment effect estimates. For the average outcomes, standard deviations are given in parentheses for the quantitative outcomes (wage and weeks on UI). For the treatment-control differences and the average treatment effect estimates, we provide two-sided p -values and 95% confidence intervals based on Welch’s two-sample t -test and the methodology described in the main text, respectively. The two rightmost columns illustrate how direct comparisons of outcome averages between the aggregate treatment and control groups can lead to significantly biased causal conclusions.\n    36\t\n    37\tOverall, we find that RESEA selection led to a statistically significant improvement in all three of the preregistered outcomes. RESEA selection led to a wage outcome that was $1,153 higher annually (95% CI: [$166, $2,141]; p=0.022 ), a 3.5% increase relative to the mean wage outcome of $33,043 in the control group (Table 2). There was also an estimated 1.47 percentage point increase in reemployment (95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]; p=0.013 ) and a 1.99 week reduction in the number of weeks on UI (95% CI: [1.75 weeks, 2.24 weeks]; p<0.001 ) due to RESEA selection. The latter is an 11.5% decrease compared to the mean control group weeks on UI outcome of 17.3 weeks. All three of these results remain statistically significant after correcting for multiple testing using Holm’s method to keep the familywise error rate below 5 percent.\n    38\t\n    39\tThe results for the short-term outcomes are substantively similar to those for the longer-term outcomes (Table 2). We estimate RESEA selection leads to a short-term wage outcome that is $1,195 higher (95% CI: [$326, $2,064]; p = 0.007) on an annualized basis and a 1.66 percentage point higher rate of short-term reemployment (95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]; p = 0.012). Given that the magnitudes of these causal estimates are very similar to those for the corresponding long-term outcomes, this suggests that the full impact of RESEA selection on wages and reemployment appears quickly by the second quarter after randomization, and persists for at least five quarters. We also find that those selected for RESEA spend 1.77 fewer weeks on UI in the benefit year of their claim (95% CI: [1.55 weeks, 1.99 weeks]; p ¡ 0.001). As this is a bit smaller than the effect size of 1.99 weeks estimated for the long term weeks on UI outcome, which includes an additional 26 weeks beyond the benefit year, we see some directional evidence that RESEA selection may also reduce the time spent on UI in the following year, suggesting that it may be helping claimants find employment that lasts longer, thereby reducing repetitive use of UI benefits.\n    40\t\n    41\tAs noted earlier, wages and reemployment are artificially zero-inflated due to missing out-of-state wage data. The Rhode Island job market is tightly integrated with those of the neighboring states of Massachusetts and Connecticut; the 2016-2020 5-Year American Community Survey found that nearly 16 percent of Rhode Island workers 16 years and older commuted out of state, mainly to Massachusetts. We note, however, that this missingness should not affect the directional validity of our causal analysis. This is because randomization ensures that this missingness is balanced between the treatment and control groups (within each block), unless RESEA selection itself differentially helps or hinders finding employment out of state or self-employment. To investigate this, we examined the presence of individuals who failed to exhaust their UI benefits in the benefit year of their claim while having $0 in reported RI wages for all of the five complete quarters after randomization. There were 3,325 claimants falling into this group, including 1,618 individuals (13.7%) in the aggregate control group and 1,707 individuals (14.6%) in the aggregate treatment group. After controlling for randomization week, this difference in proportions was not significant ( p = 0.55). The lack of statistical significance on this test with our large sample size along with the fact that the Rhode Island job database focuses overwhelmingly on jobs offered by Rhode Island employers suggests that RESEA selection does not differentially assist in finding out-of-state employment or self-employment.\n    42\t\n    43\t### 3.1 Cost-benefit analysis\n    44\t\n    45\tWe find that the decrease in time spent drawing UI benefits due to RESEA selection corresponds to a considerable cost savings to the state from paying out a smaller amount of UI benefits. We estimate that the average individual selected for RESEA during the study period drew $676 less (95% CI: [$563, $789], p<0.001 ) in UI benefits during the same benefit year of their claim than they would have if they were not selected for RESEA. This is a 9.9 percent reduction relative to the control group average of $6,839 in UI benefits drawn during the benefit year of the claim. Multiplying the estimate by the total number of individuals selected for RESEA in the study ( n=11,700 ) suggests that as a result of the program, the state paid out about $7.9 million fewer in UI benefits to claimants randomized during the study period over the same benefit year as their UI claims. This is much higher than the total expenditures of $2.99 million for the RESEA program over the study period, representing $2.64 in savings for the state budget for every $1 spent on the program.\n    46\t\n    47\t### 4.1 Methodological lessons (excerpt)\n    48\t\n    49\t[Table 3 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression]\n    50\t\n    51\tOutcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression\n    52\tWage | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141] | $1,137; p=0.014; 95% CI: [228, 2,047] | $1,100; p=0.027; 95% CI: [127, 2,073]\n    53\tReemployment | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62] | 1.48 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.63] | 1.49 pp; p=0.011; 95% CI: [0.34, 2.64]\n    54\tWeeks on UI | -1.99 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75] | -1.93 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.18, -1.68] | -1.97 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.22, -1.72]\n    55\t\n    56\tTable 3: A comparison of the ITT estimates, two-sided p -values, and 95% confidence intervals for our primary outcomes from three different methodologies: the preregistered analysis based on eq. (1), the covariate adjusted analysis based on eq. (2), and the fixed effects regression in eq. (3). The leftmost column based on the preregistered analysis duplicates the rightmost column in Table 2 for ease of comparison.\n    57\t\n    58\tIf we directly compared treatment group and control group outcome averages without accounting for the week of randomization, the results would suggest RESEA selection had no detectable average effect on the wage and reemployment outcomes (column 4, Table 2). However, such an analysis is potentially biased under the experimental design because it does not respect the blocked randomization, which makes the week of randomization a known confounder. For example, weeks with a larger number of UI applicants, which had a higher proportion of control group individuals, tended to have lower-earning applicants (Fig. 7), thereby inflating the average wage outcome in the control group relative to the treatment group. This is critical because out of the thirteen publically available studies of RESEA-related employment assistance programs rated by CLEAR as having high causal evidence, six used block randomization like we do, yet only two of these (Black, Smith, Berger, & Noel., 2002; Klerman et al., 2019) properly adjusted for the block. Three others among these six studies used regression or matching methods in an attempt to control for observed demographic variables but not the block (Poe-Yamagata et al., 2011; Michaelides et al., 2012; Manoli et al., 2018), while the remaining study (Michaelides & Mueser, 2018) fit a linear regression model with the block indicators as fixed effects, as did two other more recent evaluations in Nevada (Michaelides & Mian, 2021; Brigandi et al., 2024) . These fixed effects regressions amount to estimating the coefficient in the regression 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    1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2603.03260v2\n     2\tTitle: Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n     3\tAuthors: Wanqi Liu; Rong Zhao\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], version 1 submitted 3 Mar 2026, version 2 (this extract) submitted 2 Apr 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2603.03260v2 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 6e9a3c5fead449da09a981b0bacc36e1a4f652750caef972a173c3193525c327)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Empirical Strategy and Main Results' in full (equation (1), Table 2, Table 3 with notes, Figure 2 caption, Section 3.3); Section 5 'Conclusion'.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2 and 4, the appendix (Tables 4-5), the references.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n    13\t\n    14\tWanqi Liu, Rong Zhao (Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London)\n    15\t\n    16\t###### Abstract\n    17\t\n    18\tRestaurants, cafes, pubs, and takeaways are among the most visible markers of neighborhood change, yet whether their arrival is capitalised into nearby housing values remains empirically unsettled. We assemble a London-wide panel linking Land Registry prices, non-domestic EPC lodgement timings for food-and-drink establishments, and neighborhood amenity measures at the LSOA level. Our preferred annual event-study design defines treatment as the first clean-onset year in which an LSOA records at least two eligible EPC lodgements for food-and-drink establishments, after a two-year lookback with no prior entries. In this specification, pre-trend tests are not rejected in either the stacked or Sun-Abraham estimators, and log house prices rise gradually from about 0.5% in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five. The results are consistent with local amenity capitalization following commercial entry, while remaining appropriately cautious about endogenous siting and concurrent redevelopment.\n    19\t\n    20\t## 3 Empirical Strategy and Main Results\n    21\t\n    22\t### 3.1 Empirical Strategy\n    23\t\n    24\tOur main estimand is the reduced-form change in local log house prices following the first clean entry wave of food-and-drink establishments in an LSOA, relative to untreated LSOAs that remain at risk in the relevant event-time comparisons. It is best interpreted as a local capitalization estimand: it bundles direct amenity value, signaling, and related neighborhood revaluation, rather than isolating a single structural channel.\n    25\t\n    26\tThe central identification threat is endogenous siting. If businesses open where appreciation was already accelerating, post-entry coefficients will confound commercial entry with prior neighborhood change. To trace the dynamic price response while reducing that concern, we exploit the staggered timing of openings of food-and-drink establishments using EPC lodgement records for restaurants, cafes, drinking establishments, and takeaways. In the preferred specification, treatment begins in the first year an LSOA records at least two such EPC lodgements after a two-year lookback window with no prior eligible entry. Let E_{i} denote the treatment year for LSOA i (undefined for never-treated units). This clean-onset rule is intended to capture a discrete local entry wave rather than ongoing turnover. Our annual event-study specification is:\n    27\t\n    28\ty_{it}=\\alpha_{i}+\\delta_{t}+\\sum_{\\begin{subarray}{c}\\tau=-5\\\\\n    29\t\\tau\\neq-1\\end{subarray}}^{5}\\beta_{\\tau}\\,\\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\}+\\varepsilon_{it} | | | (1)\n    30\t\n    31\twhere \\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\} equals one when LSOA i is observed \\tau years relative to its treatment date, with \\tau=-1 as the omitted reference period. The coefficients \\{\\beta_{\\tau}\\} trace out the dynamic treatment effect, while the pre-period coefficients \\beta_{-5},\\ldots,\\beta_{-2} provide the main visual and joint-test check on parallel trends.\n    32\t\n    33\t#### Estimator comparisons.\n    34\t\n    35\tBecause staggered treatment timing can induce negative weighting in conventional TWFE [22], we treat the stacked design as the main estimator and compare it with a Sun and Abraham [23] interaction-weighted estimator. The point of this comparison is to check whether the post-entry path survives an alternative treatment-timing aggregation scheme, not to elevate a broad specification horse race into the main text.\n    36\t\n    37\t### 3.2 Main Event-Study Results\n    38\t\n    39\tUsing EPC lodgement records, we construct an annual design for entry of food-and-drink establishments in which treatment begins when an LSOA first records at least two eligible lodgements after a two-year clean-onset window with no prior entry. The preferred stacked sample contains 657,197 LSOA-year observations, 774 treated-role LSOAs, and 4,459 control-role LSOAs across risk sets. Treatment is distributed across sixteen cohorts from 2008 to 2023, with the largest cohort in 2009 (178 treated units) and meaningful support throughout the subsequent decade. Appendix cohort tables report the full cohort composition.\n    40\t\n    41\t#### Support across event time.\n    42\t\n    43\tTable 2 summarizes the support behind the stacked sample. Treated observations are most numerous near event time and then decline as the window moves farther into the tails, but support remains substantial even at \\tau=5 , where 546 treated observations from 11 contributing stacks remain in the estimating sample. This pattern matters for interpretation: medium-run coefficients are identified from fewer cohorts than the event-year effect, so later horizons should be read as economically informative but mechanically noisier.\n    44\t\n    45\tTable 2: Event-Time Support in the Stacked Sample\n    46\t\n    47\tEvent Time | Treated Obs. | Treated LSOAs | Contributing Stacks\n    48\t\n    49\t-5 | 572 | 572 | 14\n    50\t\n    51\t-4 | 751 | 751 | 15\n    52\t\n    53\t-3 | 769 | 769 | 16\n    54\t\n    55\t-2 | 763 | 763 | 16\n    56\t\n    57\t-1 | 761 | 761 | 16\n    58\t\n    59\t0 | 756 | 756 | 16\n    60\t\n    61\t1 | 689 | 689 | 15\n    62\t\n    63\t2 | 648 | 648 | 14\n    64\t\n    65\t3 | 610 | 610 | 13\n    66\t\n    67\t4 | 586 | 586 | 12\n    68\t\n    69\t5 | 546 | 546 | 11\n    70\t\n    71\t•\n    72\t\n    73\tNotes: Support counts from the preferred clean-onset stacked design for entry of food-and-drink establishments. “Contributing stacks” records how many cohort-specific risk sets identify each event-time coefficient.\n    74\t\n    75\t#### Headline dynamic pattern.\n    76\t\n    77\tFigure 2 reports the preferred clean-onset event-study path and overlays the event-time support behind each coefficient. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and imprecise, and the stacked joint pre-trend test does not reject ( p=0.241 ). The estimated effect is close to zero at event time and then turns positive: the stacked coefficient is 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.018 at \\tau=2 , 0.037 at \\tau=4 , and 0.034 by \\tau=5 . Interpreted in logs, these magnitudes correspond to a gradual appreciation of roughly 0.5% in the event year and about 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The pattern is notable for its slope as much as for its level: prices do not jump immediately, but instead drift upward as the new commercial entry becomes part of the local amenity bundle.\n    78\t\n    79\t#### Estimator comparison and design diagnostics.\n    80\t\n    81\tFor the preferred clean-onset design, the Sun-Abraham interaction-weighted path closely tracks the stacked path in the post-treatment period. The Sun coefficients are 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.016 at \\tau=2 , 0.036 at \\tau=4 , and 0.033 at \\tau=5 , and its joint pre-trend test is not rejected ( p=0.472 ). Table 3 places the preferred specification next to two nearby alternatives. Relative to the broader baseline threshold-2 design, clean-onset imposes more discipline on timing while preserving a similar medium-run magnitude. Relative to the neighbor-buffer variant, it avoids an extra layer of spatial pruning that mechanically strengthens post-treatment coefficients but yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore retain the unbuffered clean-onset design as the headline specification.\n    82\t\n    83\tTable 3: Main Design Diagnostics for the Headline Event-Study Specification\n    84\t\n    85\t[Extract editor's note: the header row of Table 3 is garbled in the HTML rendering; the six columns are, in order: Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend p | Sun pre-trend p | tau=4 coefficient | tau=5 coefficient.]\n    86\t\n    87\tp p \\tau=4 \\tau=5 Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend | Sun pre-trend | |\n    88\t\n    89\tBaseline threshold-2 | 1,084 | 0.342 | 0.223 | 0.029 | 0.022\n    90\t\n    91\tClean-onset threshold-2 | 774 | 0.241 | 0.472 | 0.037 | 0.034\n    92\t\n    93\tClean-onset + neighbor buffer | 774 | 0.126 | 0.239 | 0.042 | 0.040\n    94\t\n    95\t•\n    96\t\n    97\tNotes: Entries in the last two columns are log-point coefficients relative to \\tau=-1 . The baseline row uses the broader threshold-2 treatment without the clean-onset restriction. The preferred row uses the clean-onset threshold-2 treatment with a two-year lookback window and no prior eligible entry. The buffer row applies a first-order neighboring-control exclusion to the preferred design.\n    98\t\n    99\tFigure 2: Preferred clean-onset event-study estimates for entry of food-and-drink establishments. Point estimates are reported relative to the year before treatment ( \\tau=-1 ), which is shown as the open reference marker at zero, and plotted with 95% confidence intervals. Gray bars report the number of treated observations contributing to each event-time coefficient. The estimated path rises gradually from near zero in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five after entry.\n   100\t\n   101\t### 3.3 Robustness Checks\n   102\t\n   103\tThe main robustness question is whether the positive post-entry path survives plausible threats from spatial spillovers and concurrent redevelopment. Excluding first-order neighboring controls leaves the qualitative pattern intact and slightly strengthens post-treatment coefficients, but it also yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore treat the buffer variant as a supporting robustness check rather than as a replacement for the headline design. Planning-start outcome diagnostics are reported in Appendix Table 5 and are not used to select the preferred specification.\n   104\t\n   105\t## 5 Conclusion\n   106\t\n   107\tThis paper studies whether entry of food-and-drink establishments is followed by changes in neighborhood house prices in Greater London. In the preferred clean-onset event-study estimates, areas exposed to entry experience a gradual post-entry appreciation that reaches roughly 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The evidence is consistent with local amenity capitalization following visible commercial change, while also underscoring the need for continued falsification and treatment-validation work before treating the dynamic magnitudes as fully settled.","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"9f1bbef8-854b-4f50-9848-0cb2f451ef15","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:08.838Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2603.03260v2\n     2\tTitle: Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n     3\tAuthors: Wanqi Liu; Rong Zhao\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], version 1 submitted 3 Mar 2026, version 2 (this extract) submitted 2 Apr 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2603.03260v2 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 6e9a3c5fead449da09a981b0bacc36e1a4f652750caef972a173c3193525c327)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Empirical Strategy and Main Results' in full (equation (1), Table 2, Table 3 with notes, Figure 2 caption, Section 3.3); Section 5 'Conclusion'.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2 and 4, the appendix (Tables 4-5), the references.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n    13\t\n    14\tWanqi Liu, Rong Zhao (Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London)\n    15\t\n    16\t###### Abstract\n    17\t\n    18\tRestaurants, cafes, pubs, and takeaways are among the most visible markers of neighborhood change, yet whether their arrival is capitalised into nearby housing values remains empirically unsettled. We assemble a London-wide panel linking Land Registry prices, non-domestic EPC lodgement timings for food-and-drink establishments, and neighborhood amenity measures at the LSOA level. Our preferred annual event-study design defines treatment as the first clean-onset year in which an LSOA records at least two eligible EPC lodgements for food-and-drink establishments, after a two-year lookback with no prior entries. In this specification, pre-trend tests are not rejected in either the stacked or Sun-Abraham estimators, and log house prices rise gradually from about 0.5% in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five. The results are consistent with local amenity capitalization following commercial entry, while remaining appropriately cautious about endogenous siting and concurrent redevelopment.\n    19\t\n    20\t## 3 Empirical Strategy and Main Results\n    21\t\n    22\t### 3.1 Empirical Strategy\n    23\t\n    24\tOur main estimand is the reduced-form change in local log house prices following the first clean entry wave of food-and-drink establishments in an LSOA, relative to untreated LSOAs that remain at risk in the relevant event-time comparisons. It is best interpreted as a local capitalization estimand: it bundles direct amenity value, signaling, and related neighborhood revaluation, rather than isolating a single structural channel.\n    25\t\n    26\tThe central identification threat is endogenous siting. If businesses open where appreciation was already accelerating, post-entry coefficients will confound commercial entry with prior neighborhood change. To trace the dynamic price response while reducing that concern, we exploit the staggered timing of openings of food-and-drink establishments using EPC lodgement records for restaurants, cafes, drinking establishments, and takeaways. In the preferred specification, treatment begins in the first year an LSOA records at least two such EPC lodgements after a two-year lookback window with no prior eligible entry. Let E_{i} denote the treatment year for LSOA i (undefined for never-treated units). This clean-onset rule is intended to capture a discrete local entry wave rather than ongoing turnover. Our annual event-study specification is:\n    27\t\n    28\ty_{it}=\\alpha_{i}+\\delta_{t}+\\sum_{\\begin{subarray}{c}\\tau=-5\\\\\n    29\t\\tau\\neq-1\\end{subarray}}^{5}\\beta_{\\tau}\\,\\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\}+\\varepsilon_{it} | | | (1)\n    30\t\n    31\twhere \\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\} equals one when LSOA i is observed \\tau years relative to its treatment date, with \\tau=-1 as the omitted reference period. The coefficients \\{\\beta_{\\tau}\\} trace out the dynamic treatment effect, while the pre-period coefficients \\beta_{-5},\\ldots,\\beta_{-2} provide the main visual and joint-test check on parallel trends.\n    32\t\n    33\t#### Estimator comparisons.\n    34\t\n    35\tBecause staggered treatment timing can induce negative weighting in conventional TWFE [22], we treat the stacked design as the main estimator and compare it with a Sun and Abraham [23] interaction-weighted estimator. The point of this comparison is to check whether the post-entry path survives an alternative treatment-timing aggregation scheme, not to elevate a broad specification horse race into the main text.\n    36\t\n    37\t### 3.2 Main Event-Study Results\n    38\t\n    39\tUsing EPC lodgement records, we construct an annual design for entry of food-and-drink establishments in which treatment begins when an LSOA first records at least two eligible lodgements after a two-year clean-onset window with no prior entry. The preferred stacked sample contains 657,197 LSOA-year observations, 774 treated-role LSOAs, and 4,459 control-role LSOAs across risk sets. Treatment is distributed across sixteen cohorts from 2008 to 2023, with the largest cohort in 2009 (178 treated units) and meaningful support throughout the subsequent decade. Appendix cohort tables report the full cohort composition.\n    40\t\n    41\t#### Support across event time.\n    42\t\n    43\tTable 2 summarizes the support behind the stacked sample. Treated observations are most numerous near event time and then decline as the window moves farther into the tails, but support remains substantial even at \\tau=5 , where 546 treated observations from 11 contributing stacks remain in the estimating sample. This pattern matters for interpretation: medium-run coefficients are identified from fewer cohorts than the event-year effect, so later horizons should be read as economically informative but mechanically noisier.\n    44\t\n    45\tTable 2: Event-Time Support in the Stacked Sample\n    46\t\n    47\tEvent Time | Treated Obs. | Treated LSOAs | Contributing Stacks\n    48\t\n    49\t-5 | 572 | 572 | 14\n    50\t\n    51\t-4 | 751 | 751 | 15\n    52\t\n    53\t-3 | 769 | 769 | 16\n    54\t\n    55\t-2 | 763 | 763 | 16\n    56\t\n    57\t-1 | 761 | 761 | 16\n    58\t\n    59\t0 | 756 | 756 | 16\n    60\t\n    61\t1 | 689 | 689 | 15\n    62\t\n    63\t2 | 648 | 648 | 14\n    64\t\n    65\t3 | 610 | 610 | 13\n    66\t\n    67\t4 | 586 | 586 | 12\n    68\t\n    69\t5 | 546 | 546 | 11\n    70\t\n    71\t•\n    72\t\n    73\tNotes: Support counts from the preferred clean-onset stacked design for entry of food-and-drink establishments. “Contributing stacks” records how many cohort-specific risk sets identify each event-time coefficient.\n    74\t\n    75\t#### Headline dynamic pattern.\n    76\t\n    77\tFigure 2 reports the preferred clean-onset event-study path and overlays the event-time support behind each coefficient. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and imprecise, and the stacked joint pre-trend test does not reject ( p=0.241 ). The estimated effect is close to zero at event time and then turns positive: the stacked coefficient is 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.018 at \\tau=2 , 0.037 at \\tau=4 , and 0.034 by \\tau=5 . Interpreted in logs, these magnitudes correspond to a gradual appreciation of roughly 0.5% in the event year and about 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The pattern is notable for its slope as much as for its level: prices do not jump immediately, but instead drift upward as the new commercial entry becomes part of the local amenity bundle.\n    78\t\n    79\t#### Estimator comparison and design diagnostics.\n    80\t\n    81\tFor the preferred clean-onset design, the Sun-Abraham interaction-weighted path closely tracks the stacked path in the post-treatment period. The Sun coefficients are 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.016 at \\tau=2 , 0.036 at \\tau=4 , and 0.033 at \\tau=5 , and its joint pre-trend test is not rejected ( p=0.472 ). Table 3 places the preferred specification next to two nearby alternatives. Relative to the broader baseline threshold-2 design, clean-onset imposes more discipline on timing while preserving a similar medium-run magnitude. Relative to the neighbor-buffer variant, it avoids an extra layer of spatial pruning that mechanically strengthens post-treatment coefficients but yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore retain the unbuffered clean-onset design as the headline specification.\n    82\t\n    83\tTable 3: Main Design Diagnostics for the Headline Event-Study Specification\n    84\t\n    85\t[Extract editor's note: the header row of Table 3 is garbled in the HTML rendering; the six columns are, in order: Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend p | Sun pre-trend p | tau=4 coefficient | tau=5 coefficient.]\n    86\t\n    87\tp p \\tau=4 \\tau=5 Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend | Sun pre-trend | |\n    88\t\n    89\tBaseline threshold-2 | 1,084 | 0.342 | 0.223 | 0.029 | 0.022\n    90\t\n    91\tClean-onset threshold-2 | 774 | 0.241 | 0.472 | 0.037 | 0.034\n    92\t\n    93\tClean-onset + neighbor buffer | 774 | 0.126 | 0.239 | 0.042 | 0.040\n    94\t\n    95\t•\n    96\t\n    97\tNotes: Entries in the last two columns are log-point coefficients relative to \\tau=-1 . The baseline row uses the broader threshold-2 treatment without the clean-onset restriction. The preferred row uses the clean-onset threshold-2 treatment with a two-year lookback window and no prior eligible entry. The buffer row applies a first-order neighboring-control exclusion to the preferred design.\n    98\t\n    99\tFigure 2: Preferred clean-onset event-study estimates for entry of food-and-drink establishments. Point estimates are reported relative to the year before treatment ( \\tau=-1 ), which is shown as the open reference marker at zero, and plotted with 95% confidence intervals. Gray bars report the number of treated observations contributing to each event-time coefficient. The estimated path rises gradually from near zero in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five after entry.\n   100\t\n   101\t### 3.3 Robustness Checks\n   102\t\n   103\tThe main robustness question is whether the positive post-entry path survives plausible threats from spatial spillovers and concurrent redevelopment. Excluding first-order neighboring controls leaves the qualitative pattern intact and slightly strengthens post-treatment coefficients, but it also yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore treat the buffer variant as a supporting robustness check rather than as a replacement for the headline design. Planning-start outcome diagnostics are reported in Appendix Table 5 and are not used to select the preferred specification.\n   104\t\n   105\t## 5 Conclusion\n   106\t\n   107\tThis paper studies whether entry of food-and-drink establishments is followed by changes in neighborhood house prices in Greater London. In the preferred clean-onset event-study estimates, areas exposed to entry experience a gradual post-entry appreciation that reaches roughly 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The evidence is consistent with local amenity capitalization following visible commercial change, while also underscoring the need for continued falsification and treatment-validation work before treating the dynamic magnitudes as fully settled.","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"d67685e7-4b9d-42e0-af34-50fcfd9b6a43","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}36{"parentUuid":"9f1bbef8-854b-4f50-9848-0cb2f451ef15","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrHgmGxfZwXx7kKQZW6","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01UoUD2iGs1S8XHYQ3d7uW7F","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt; cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt","description":"Read Kanayama and Tossou extracts"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":10480,"cache_read_input_tokens":11301,"output_tokens":596,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":373},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":10480},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":2,"requestId":"req_011CgXrHgZckQeCUNtgj7tPj","requestRef":"e09a42ef-6795-41fd-8754-f58a4e2e21cc","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"b0f6bda2-2eac-48de-a832-325262191b85","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:09.532Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}37{"parentUuid":"b0f6bda2-2eac-48de-a832-325262191b85","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f9f57fbc-a9e1-4f82-bec9-e476caed3cfb","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01UoUD2iGs1S8XHYQ3d7uW7F","type":"tool_result","content":"     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2505.04555v3\n     2\tTitle: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n     3\tAuthors: Hayato Kanayama; Sho Miyaji; Suguru Otani\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], version 1 submitted 7 May 2025, version 2 submitted 27 May 2025, version 3 (this extract) submitted 16 Mar 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2505.04555v3 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2b68299cbc49f208a0340bd233007fe922f6d4245e0a642db526662d359789b)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Appendix A.1 'Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages' in full (Table 2 with its note and the discussion paragraph).\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-7, the other appendices, the references. The 'Current version' date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n    13\t\n    14\tHayato Kanayama (Waseda University), Sho Miyaji (Yale University), Suguru Otani (The University of Tokyo)\n    15\t\n    16\t###### Abstract\n    17\t\n    18\tHow labor markets adjust immediately after minimum wage hikes remains an open, policy-relevant question. This paper studies short-run minimum-wage effects in Japan’s spot labor market using Timee data and a wage-bin difference-in-differences design. We find a 2% employment decline in affected bins, driven by reduced vacancy creation rather than worker supply. Effects are more negative where the minimum-wage bite is higher and in low-wage occupations. Using job descriptions and amenity information, we document reallocation across job types: postings shift toward greater amenity provision and experienced-worker targeting, while female-targeted descriptions become less common, suggesting short-run labor-demand adjustments may foreshadow longer-run reallocation.\n    19\t\n    20\tKeywords: minimum wage, employment, job amenities, gig workers, spot work, difference-in-differences\n    21\t\n    22\tJEL codes: J21, J23, J38, J88\n    23\t\n    24\t## Appendix A Additional Analysis\n    25\t\n    26\t### A.1 Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages\n    27\t\n    28\tFollowing the method of Cengiz et al. (2019), we estimate (i) the elasticity of employment with respect to minimum wages and (ii) the employment elasticity with respect to the affected wages.\n    29\t\n    30\tTable 2: Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment and Wages\n    31\t\n    32\t| Estimate (SE)\n    33\t\n    34\tMissing jobs below new MW | -0.03\n    35\t\n    36\t| (0.006)\n    37\t\n    38\tExcess jobs above new MW | 0.012\n    39\t\n    40\t| (0.002)\n    41\t\n    42\tAffected wages | 0.366\n    43\t\n    44\t| (0.171)\n    45\t\n    46\tAffected employment | -0.268\n    47\t\n    48\t| (0.091)\n    49\t\n    50\tEmployment elasticity w.r.t MW | -0.388\n    51\t\n    52\t| (0.132)\n    53\t\n    54\tEmp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage | -0.732\n    55\t\n    56\t| (0.091)\n    57\t\n    58\tJob below new MW | 0.068\n    59\t\n    60\t% MW changes | 0.047\n    61\t\n    62\tNote: The table reports the effects of a minimum wage increase based on the event study analysis exploiting 47 prefecture-level minimum wage changes in 2023 (i.e., about 4% minimum wage increase). The table reports six-month averaged post-treatment estimates on missing jobs up to 100 JPY below the new minimum wage, excess jobs at and up to 300 JPY above it, employment, and wages. Robust standard errors in parentheses are clustered by wage bins separated by 10 JPY.\n    63\t\n    64\tTable 2 reports six-month–averaged post-treatment effects for the baseline specification depicted in Figure 7.\n    65\tThe magnitude of missing jobs below new minimum wages exceeds the magnitude of excess jobs above new minimum wages in the six-month window.\n    66\tThe estimated employment elasticity with respect to the minimum wage is - 0.388 , which is consistent with Figure 7. Unlike the findings of Cengiz et al. (2019) and Dube and Zipperer (2024), our own-wage employment elasticity is - 0.732 , indicating a larger (absolute) employment response to affected wages than the median estimate (- 0.13 ) reported by Dube and Lindner (2024).\n     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2510.03658v1\n     2\tTitle: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n     3\tAuthors: Selidji Caroline Tossou\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN], submitted 4 Oct 2025 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2510.03658v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2d9f04dcf4789983c28f97dc13705eb2d6ed583c4860c940f921d7b549aea59)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, author and abstract; Section 4.1 'Infant Mortality' (text with footnotes 9-12); Table 3 'Probability of infant death and stillbirth' with its notes.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-3, 4.2-6, Tables 1-2 and 4-16, the references. The date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n    13\t\n    14\tSelidji Caroline Tossou (University of Wisconsin-Madison)\n    15\t\n    16\t###### Abstract\n    17\t\n    18\tThis paper evaluates the causal effect of the access to Benin’s free cesarean section policy on females and their children. I use a large sample of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for West African countries and analyze how the exemption of the cesarean section user fees for females in Benin directly impacts maternal and infant mortality, family size decisions, and labor market participation. I use a Difference in Differences approach and find that having access to the free cesarean section policy significantly reduces the number of stillbirths and infant mortality by 0.0855 (a 18.79 percentage change). Second, for the surviving children, I find that access to the free cesarean section increases the likelihood of maternal mortality by 0.00465 (a 5.21 percentage change). The policy is effective at reducing infant mortality and saving the newborn. However, it harms the mother’s health which translates to lower fertility after the first birth and decreased maternal labor supply post-birth.\n    19\t\n    20\t## 4 Findings\n    21\t\n    22\t### 4.1 Infant Mortality\n    23\t\n    24\tI first investigate the infant death rate under the policy.\n    25\tFigure 15 shows that the exemption of cesarean section fees in Benin leads to an increase in the use of the service. What are the implications for infant mortality? I use a Difference in Differences specification to explore the possible impacts of access to the free cesarean section on infant mortality. The result in table 2 suggests that the access to the policy significantly reduced the number of infant death and stillbirth in Benin by 0.0855 (this represents a percentage change of 18.79 percent^9^9\n    26\t9\n    27\t\n    28\tI divide the estimate of beta by the mean of the dependent variable: -0.0855/0.455=-0.1879 ). This means that for over 100 newborns who would have died in the absence of the policy, approximately 18 are saved because of the access to the exemption of the cesarean section user fees. This result is promising and aligns with the goals of the free cesarean section policy, which primarily intends to lower the infant mortality in Benin. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first paper that evaluates the causal effect of free cesarean section policy on Benin’s infant mortality. Wealth and education attainment play a role in decreasing infant mortality. This can be explained by the fact that the free cesarean section covers only the surgery and a medicine kit for the mother. It does not cover prenatal and antepartum checkups. So a pregnant woman who has the means is more likely to identify and prevent any problems related to the pregnancy and the newborn’s health. Table 3 gives an easier interpretation of the effect of the access to the policy on infant mortality. In this table, the outcome of interest is a binary variable that takes value 1 if a female has an infant death or a pregnancy loss in the three years preceding the data collection and 0 otherwise. Thus, I interpret the coefficient \\hat{\\beta_{1}} as the effect of the policy on the likelihood of infant mortality. Using my most preferred specification (Column (4)), the result suggests that access to the policy decreases the likelihood of infant death or pregnancy loss of a female in Benin by 0.0962. Compared to the mean of the dependent variable, this effect represents a percentage change of 36.85 percent. To see which female category is driving this result, I decompose the effect by age group, wealth index, and education attainment.\n    29\t\n    30\tThe first panel of table 4 presents the stratification by age group. The policy is more effective at reducing infant mortality for females older than 25. For females between 15 and 24, the probability of infant mortality is reduced by only 4.65 percent compared to a reduction of 30.85 percent for a female between 25 and 34, a reduction of 43.53 percent for females between 35 and 44, and the highest decrease of 47.25 percent for females between 45 and 49^10^10\n    31\t10\n    32\t\n    33\tThese are the percentage change of infant mortality obtained by dividing the coefficient estimated by the mean of the dependent variable. The same exercise is done by using the wealth index of females. The results in the second panel of table 4 suggest that the effect of the free cesarean section on infant mortality is the biggest for females who are the poorest, poorer, or have a middle wealth index^11^11\n    34\t11\n    35\t\n    36\tThe modalities Poorest, Poorer, Middle, Richer, and Richest are pre-computed in the DHS data (46.36 percent, 35.84 percent, and 41.72 percent respectively). For the richer and richest females, the effect of the policy is a percentage change reduction of 28.52 percent and 16.47 percent on the likelihood of infant death. The last panel of table 4 gives a stratification by education level. The highest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-39.07 percent) is for females who have no education level. The lowest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-1.4 percent) is for females who have higher education levels.^12^12\n    37\t12\n    38\t\n    39\tI test the difference between all the coefficients and they are all significant and statistically different\n    40\t\n    41\tTo summarize, I find that access to the free cesarean section in Benin reduces the likelihood of infant mortality on average by 36.85 percent. The policy is more effective at reducing infant death for older females, females who are below the middle wealth index, and females who have no education.\n    42\t\n    43\tTable 3: Probability of infant death and stillbirth\n    44\t\n    45\t| Probability of Infant death or stillbirth | | |\n    46\t\n    47\t| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4)\n    48\t\n    49\tTreatment | -0.0911 | -0.0908 | -0.0961 | -0.0962\n    50\t\n    51\t| (0.0113) | (0.0113) | (0.0126) | (0.0129)\n    52\t\n    53\tEducation Attainment | -0.0578 | -0.0576 | -0.0443 | -0.0443\n    54\t\n    55\t| (0.00346) | (0.00340) | (0.00415) | (0.00420)\n    56\t\n    57\tAge of Female | 0.0168 | 0.0170 | 0.0171 | 0.0171\n    58\t\n    59\t| (0.00108) | (0.00112) | (0.00104) | (0.00108)\n    60\t\n    61\tAge of Partner | | -0.000425 | -0.000448 | -0.000435\n    62\t\n    63\t| | (0.000183) | (0.000151) | (0.000152)\n    64\t\n    65\tWealth Index | | | -0.0302 | -0.0302\n    66\t\n    67\t| | | (0.00277) | (0.00277)\n    68\t\n    69\tMarital Status | | | | 0.00128\n    70\t\n    71\t| | | | (0.00421)\n    72\t\n    73\tCountry Fixed Effect | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n    74\t\n    75\tTime Fixed Effect. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n    76\t\n    77\t_cons | -0.129 | -0.114 | -0.0400 | -0.0406\n    78\t\n    79\t| (0.0323) | (0.0298) | (0.0266) | (0.0255)\n    80\t\n    81\tObservations | 196554 | 196424 | 196424 | 196423\n    82\t\n    83\t% Change | -0.3490 | -0.3478 | -0.3681 | -0.3685\n    84\t\n    85\tR-squared | 0.196 | 0.197 | 0.204 | 0.204\n    86\t\n    87\tMean Dep. Var. | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261\n    88\t\n    89\tStandard errors in parentheses; Standard errors are clustered at the household level. | | | |\n    90\t\n    91\tDep. Var. Mean is the dependent variable mean. Treatment is Benin Females after 2008 | | | |","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"b725c928-fe1d-4c7c-a6ef-69a823c011bb","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:09.574Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2505.04555v3\n     2\tTitle: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n     3\tAuthors: Hayato Kanayama; Sho Miyaji; Suguru Otani\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], version 1 submitted 7 May 2025, version 2 submitted 27 May 2025, version 3 (this extract) submitted 16 Mar 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2505.04555v3 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2b68299cbc49f208a0340bd233007fe922f6d4245e0a642db526662d359789b)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Appendix A.1 'Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages' in full (Table 2 with its note and the discussion paragraph).\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-7, the other appendices, the references. The 'Current version' date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n    13\t\n    14\tHayato Kanayama (Waseda University), Sho Miyaji (Yale University), Suguru Otani (The University of Tokyo)\n    15\t\n    16\t###### Abstract\n    17\t\n    18\tHow labor markets adjust immediately after minimum wage hikes remains an open, policy-relevant question. This paper studies short-run minimum-wage effects in Japan’s spot labor market using Timee data and a wage-bin difference-in-differences design. We find a 2% employment decline in affected bins, driven by reduced vacancy creation rather than worker supply. Effects are more negative where the minimum-wage bite is higher and in low-wage occupations. Using job descriptions and amenity information, we document reallocation across job types: postings shift toward greater amenity provision and experienced-worker targeting, while female-targeted descriptions become less common, suggesting short-run labor-demand adjustments may foreshadow longer-run reallocation.\n    19\t\n    20\tKeywords: minimum wage, employment, job amenities, gig workers, spot work, difference-in-differences\n    21\t\n    22\tJEL codes: J21, J23, J38, J88\n    23\t\n    24\t## Appendix A Additional Analysis\n    25\t\n    26\t### A.1 Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages\n    27\t\n    28\tFollowing the method of Cengiz et al. (2019), we estimate (i) the elasticity of employment with respect to minimum wages and (ii) the employment elasticity with respect to the affected wages.\n    29\t\n    30\tTable 2: Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment and Wages\n    31\t\n    32\t| Estimate (SE)\n    33\t\n    34\tMissing jobs below new MW | -0.03\n    35\t\n    36\t| (0.006)\n    37\t\n    38\tExcess jobs above new MW | 0.012\n    39\t\n    40\t| (0.002)\n    41\t\n    42\tAffected wages | 0.366\n    43\t\n    44\t| (0.171)\n    45\t\n    46\tAffected employment | -0.268\n    47\t\n    48\t| (0.091)\n    49\t\n    50\tEmployment elasticity w.r.t MW | -0.388\n    51\t\n    52\t| (0.132)\n    53\t\n    54\tEmp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage | -0.732\n    55\t\n    56\t| (0.091)\n    57\t\n    58\tJob below new MW | 0.068\n    59\t\n    60\t% MW changes | 0.047\n    61\t\n    62\tNote: The table reports the effects of a minimum wage increase based on the event study analysis exploiting 47 prefecture-level minimum wage changes in 2023 (i.e., about 4% minimum wage increase). The table reports six-month averaged post-treatment estimates on missing jobs up to 100 JPY below the new minimum wage, excess jobs at and up to 300 JPY above it, employment, and wages. Robust standard errors in parentheses are clustered by wage bins separated by 10 JPY.\n    63\t\n    64\tTable 2 reports six-month–averaged post-treatment effects for the baseline specification depicted in Figure 7.\n    65\tThe magnitude of missing jobs below new minimum wages exceeds the magnitude of excess jobs above new minimum wages in the six-month window.\n    66\tThe estimated employment elasticity with respect to the minimum wage is - 0.388 , which is consistent with Figure 7. Unlike the findings of Cengiz et al. (2019) and Dube and Zipperer (2024), our own-wage employment elasticity is - 0.732 , indicating a larger (absolute) employment response to affected wages than the median estimate (- 0.13 ) reported by Dube and Lindner (2024).\n     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2510.03658v1\n     2\tTitle: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n     3\tAuthors: Selidji Caroline Tossou\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN], submitted 4 Oct 2025 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2510.03658v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2d9f04dcf4789983c28f97dc13705eb2d6ed583c4860c940f921d7b549aea59)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, author and abstract; Section 4.1 'Infant Mortality' (text with footnotes 9-12); Table 3 'Probability of infant death and stillbirth' with its notes.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-3, 4.2-6, Tables 1-2 and 4-16, the references. The date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n    13\t\n    14\tSelidji Caroline Tossou (University of Wisconsin-Madison)\n    15\t\n    16\t###### Abstract\n    17\t\n    18\tThis paper evaluates the causal effect of the access to Benin’s free cesarean section policy on females and their children. I use a large sample of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for West African countries and analyze how the exemption of the cesarean section user fees for females in Benin directly impacts maternal and infant mortality, family size decisions, and labor market participation. I use a Difference in Differences approach and find that having access to the free cesarean section policy significantly reduces the number of stillbirths and infant mortality by 0.0855 (a 18.79 percentage change). Second, for the surviving children, I find that access to the free cesarean section increases the likelihood of maternal mortality by 0.00465 (a 5.21 percentage change). The policy is effective at reducing infant mortality and saving the newborn. However, it harms the mother’s health which translates to lower fertility after the first birth and decreased maternal labor supply post-birth.\n    19\t\n    20\t## 4 Findings\n    21\t\n    22\t### 4.1 Infant Mortality\n    23\t\n    24\tI first investigate the infant death rate under the policy.\n    25\tFigure 15 shows that the exemption of cesarean section fees in Benin leads to an increase in the use of the service. What are the implications for infant mortality? I use a Difference in Differences specification to explore the possible impacts of access to the free cesarean section on infant mortality. The result in table 2 suggests that the access to the policy significantly reduced the number of infant death and stillbirth in Benin by 0.0855 (this represents a percentage change of 18.79 percent^9^9\n    26\t9\n    27\t\n    28\tI divide the estimate of beta by the mean of the dependent variable: -0.0855/0.455=-0.1879 ). This means that for over 100 newborns who would have died in the absence of the policy, approximately 18 are saved because of the access to the exemption of the cesarean section user fees. This result is promising and aligns with the goals of the free cesarean section policy, which primarily intends to lower the infant mortality in Benin. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first paper that evaluates the causal effect of free cesarean section policy on Benin’s infant mortality. Wealth and education attainment play a role in decreasing infant mortality. This can be explained by the fact that the free cesarean section covers only the surgery and a medicine kit for the mother. It does not cover prenatal and antepartum checkups. So a pregnant woman who has the means is more likely to identify and prevent any problems related to the pregnancy and the newborn’s health. Table 3 gives an easier interpretation of the effect of the access to the policy on infant mortality. In this table, the outcome of interest is a binary variable that takes value 1 if a female has an infant death or a pregnancy loss in the three years preceding the data collection and 0 otherwise. Thus, I interpret the coefficient \\hat{\\beta_{1}} as the effect of the policy on the likelihood of infant mortality. Using my most preferred specification (Column (4)), the result suggests that access to the policy decreases the likelihood of infant death or pregnancy loss of a female in Benin by 0.0962. Compared to the mean of the dependent variable, this effect represents a percentage change of 36.85 percent. To see which female category is driving this result, I decompose the effect by age group, wealth index, and education attainment.\n    29\t\n    30\tThe first panel of table 4 presents the stratification by age group. The policy is more effective at reducing infant mortality for females older than 25. For females between 15 and 24, the probability of infant mortality is reduced by only 4.65 percent compared to a reduction of 30.85 percent for a female between 25 and 34, a reduction of 43.53 percent for females between 35 and 44, and the highest decrease of 47.25 percent for females between 45 and 49^10^10\n    31\t10\n    32\t\n    33\tThese are the percentage change of infant mortality obtained by dividing the coefficient estimated by the mean of the dependent variable. The same exercise is done by using the wealth index of females. The results in the second panel of table 4 suggest that the effect of the free cesarean section on infant mortality is the biggest for females who are the poorest, poorer, or have a middle wealth index^11^11\n    34\t11\n    35\t\n    36\tThe modalities Poorest, Poorer, Middle, Richer, and Richest are pre-computed in the DHS data (46.36 percent, 35.84 percent, and 41.72 percent respectively). For the richer and richest females, the effect of the policy is a percentage change reduction of 28.52 percent and 16.47 percent on the likelihood of infant death. The last panel of table 4 gives a stratification by education level. The highest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-39.07 percent) is for females who have no education level. The lowest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-1.4 percent) is for females who have higher education levels.^12^12\n    37\t12\n    38\t\n    39\tI test the difference between all the coefficients and they are all significant and statistically different\n    40\t\n    41\tTo summarize, I find that access to the free cesarean section in Benin reduces the likelihood of infant mortality on average by 36.85 percent. The policy is more effective at reducing infant death for older females, females who are below the middle wealth index, and females who have no education.\n    42\t\n    43\tTable 3: Probability of infant death and stillbirth\n    44\t\n    45\t| Probability of Infant death or stillbirth | | |\n    46\t\n    47\t| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4)\n    48\t\n    49\tTreatment | -0.0911 | -0.0908 | -0.0961 | -0.0962\n    50\t\n    51\t| (0.0113) | (0.0113) | (0.0126) | (0.0129)\n    52\t\n    53\tEducation Attainment | -0.0578 | -0.0576 | -0.0443 | -0.0443\n    54\t\n    55\t| (0.00346) | (0.00340) | (0.00415) | (0.00420)\n    56\t\n    57\tAge of Female | 0.0168 | 0.0170 | 0.0171 | 0.0171\n    58\t\n    59\t| (0.00108) | (0.00112) | (0.00104) | (0.00108)\n    60\t\n    61\tAge of Partner | | -0.000425 | -0.000448 | -0.000435\n    62\t\n    63\t| | (0.000183) | (0.000151) | (0.000152)\n    64\t\n    65\tWealth Index | | | -0.0302 | -0.0302\n    66\t\n    67\t| | | (0.00277) | (0.00277)\n    68\t\n    69\tMarital Status | | | | 0.00128\n    70\t\n    71\t| | | | (0.00421)\n    72\t\n    73\tCountry Fixed Effect | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n    74\t\n    75\tTime Fixed Effect. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n    76\t\n    77\t_cons | -0.129 | -0.114 | -0.0400 | -0.0406\n    78\t\n    79\t| (0.0323) | (0.0298) | (0.0266) | (0.0255)\n    80\t\n    81\tObservations | 196554 | 196424 | 196424 | 196423\n    82\t\n    83\t% Change | -0.3490 | -0.3478 | -0.3681 | -0.3685\n    84\t\n    85\tR-squared | 0.196 | 0.197 | 0.204 | 0.204\n    86\t\n    87\tMean Dep. Var. | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261\n    88\t\n    89\tStandard errors in parentheses; Standard errors are clustered at the household level. | | | |\n    90\t\n    91\tDep. Var. Mean is the dependent variable mean. Treatment is Benin Females after 2008 | | | |","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"b0f6bda2-2eac-48de-a832-325262191b85","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}38{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","hash":"de81ca6db0e0345f4df451c776d431e13f1715033fbf33a2de8f5450a80186aa","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01DrSnBRiNXF5w7heqRYAiJ7","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt","description":"Read London extract"}},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01UoUD2iGs1S8XHYQ3d7uW7F","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt; cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt","description":"Read Kanayama and Tossou extracts"}}]}}39{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","hash":"87ff02439b8364f0cf993f9cec7fc06f9a322f5fe08c17f1e4f2d08a4314c508","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01DrSnBRiNXF5w7heqRYAiJ7","type":"tool_result","content":"     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2603.03260v2\n     2\tTitle: Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n     3\tAuthors: Wanqi Liu; Rong Zhao\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], version 1 submitted 3 Mar 2026, version 2 (this extract) submitted 2 Apr 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2603.03260v2 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 6e9a3c5fead449da09a981b0bacc36e1a4f652750caef972a173c3193525c327)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Empirical Strategy and Main Results' in full (equation (1), Table 2, Table 3 with notes, Figure 2 caption, Section 3.3); Section 5 'Conclusion'.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2 and 4, the appendix (Tables 4-5), the references.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n    13\t\n    14\tWanqi Liu, Rong Zhao (Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London)\n    15\t\n    16\t###### Abstract\n    17\t\n    18\tRestaurants, cafes, pubs, and takeaways are among the most visible markers of neighborhood change, yet whether their arrival is capitalised into nearby housing values remains empirically unsettled. We assemble a London-wide panel linking Land Registry prices, non-domestic EPC lodgement timings for food-and-drink establishments, and neighborhood amenity measures at the LSOA level. Our preferred annual event-study design defines treatment as the first clean-onset year in which an LSOA records at least two eligible EPC lodgements for food-and-drink establishments, after a two-year lookback with no prior entries. In this specification, pre-trend tests are not rejected in either the stacked or Sun-Abraham estimators, and log house prices rise gradually from about 0.5% in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five. The results are consistent with local amenity capitalization following commercial entry, while remaining appropriately cautious about endogenous siting and concurrent redevelopment.\n    19\t\n    20\t## 3 Empirical Strategy and Main Results\n    21\t\n    22\t### 3.1 Empirical Strategy\n    23\t\n    24\tOur main estimand is the reduced-form change in local log house prices following the first clean entry wave of food-and-drink establishments in an LSOA, relative to untreated LSOAs that remain at risk in the relevant event-time comparisons. It is best interpreted as a local capitalization estimand: it bundles direct amenity value, signaling, and related neighborhood revaluation, rather than isolating a single structural channel.\n    25\t\n    26\tThe central identification threat is endogenous siting. If businesses open where appreciation was already accelerating, post-entry coefficients will confound commercial entry with prior neighborhood change. To trace the dynamic price response while reducing that concern, we exploit the staggered timing of openings of food-and-drink establishments using EPC lodgement records for restaurants, cafes, drinking establishments, and takeaways. In the preferred specification, treatment begins in the first year an LSOA records at least two such EPC lodgements after a two-year lookback window with no prior eligible entry. Let E_{i} denote the treatment year for LSOA i (undefined for never-treated units). This clean-onset rule is intended to capture a discrete local entry wave rather than ongoing turnover. Our annual event-study specification is:\n    27\t\n    28\ty_{it}=\\alpha_{i}+\\delta_{t}+\\sum_{\\begin{subarray}{c}\\tau=-5\\\\\n    29\t\\tau\\neq-1\\end{subarray}}^{5}\\beta_{\\tau}\\,\\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\}+\\varepsilon_{it} | | | (1)\n    30\t\n    31\twhere \\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\} equals one when LSOA i is observed \\tau years relative to its treatment date, with \\tau=-1 as the omitted reference period. The coefficients \\{\\beta_{\\tau}\\} trace out the dynamic treatment effect, while the pre-period coefficients \\beta_{-5},\\ldots,\\beta_{-2} provide the main visual and joint-test check on parallel trends.\n    32\t\n    33\t#### Estimator comparisons.\n    34\t\n    35\tBecause staggered treatment timing can induce negative weighting in conventional TWFE [22], we treat the stacked design as the main estimator and compare it with a Sun and Abraham [23] interaction-weighted estimator. The point of this comparison is to check whether the post-entry path survives an alternative treatment-timing aggregation scheme, not to elevate a broad specification horse race into the main text.\n    36\t\n    37\t### 3.2 Main Event-Study Results\n    38\t\n    39\tUsing EPC lodgement records, we construct an annual design for entry of food-and-drink establishments in which treatment begins when an LSOA first records at least two eligible lodgements after a two-year clean-onset window with no prior entry. The preferred stacked sample contains 657,197 LSOA-year observations, 774 treated-role LSOAs, and 4,459 control-role LSOAs across risk sets. Treatment is distributed across sixteen cohorts from 2008 to 2023, with the largest cohort in 2009 (178 treated units) and meaningful support throughout the subsequent decade. Appendix cohort tables report the full cohort composition.\n    40\t\n    41\t#### Support across event time.\n    42\t\n    43\tTable 2 summarizes the support behind the stacked sample. Treated observations are most numerous near event time and then decline as the window moves farther into the tails, but support remains substantial even at \\tau=5 , where 546 treated observations from 11 contributing stacks remain in the estimating sample. This pattern matters for interpretation: medium-run coefficients are identified from fewer cohorts than the event-year effect, so later horizons should be read as economically informative but mechanically noisier.\n    44\t\n    45\tTable 2: Event-Time Support in the Stacked Sample\n    46\t\n    47\tEvent Time | Treated Obs. | Treated LSOAs | Contributing Stacks\n    48\t\n    49\t-5 | 572 | 572 | 14\n    50\t\n    51\t-4 | 751 | 751 | 15\n    52\t\n    53\t-3 | 769 | 769 | 16\n    54\t\n    55\t-2 | 763 | 763 | 16\n    56\t\n    57\t-1 | 761 | 761 | 16\n    58\t\n    59\t0 | 756 | 756 | 16\n    60\t\n    61\t1 | 689 | 689 | 15\n    62\t\n    63\t2 | 648 | 648 | 14\n    64\t\n    65\t3 | 610 | 610 | 13\n    66\t\n    67\t4 | 586 | 586 | 12\n    68\t\n    69\t5 | 546 | 546 | 11\n    70\t\n    71\t•\n    72\t\n    73\tNotes: Support counts from the preferred clean-onset stacked design for entry of food-and-drink establishments. “Contributing stacks” records how many cohort-specific risk sets identify each event-time coefficient.\n    74\t\n    75\t#### Headline dynamic pattern.\n    76\t\n    77\tFigure 2 reports the preferred clean-onset event-study path and overlays the event-time support behind each coefficient. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and imprecise, and the stacked joint pre-trend test does not reject ( p=0.241 ). The estimated effect is close to zero at event time and then turns positive: the stacked coefficient is 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.018 at \\tau=2 , 0.037 at \\tau=4 , and 0.034 by \\tau=5 . Interpreted in logs, these magnitudes correspond to a gradual appreciation of roughly 0.5% in the event year and about 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The pattern is notable for its slope as much as for its level: prices do not jump immediately, but instead drift upward as the new commercial entry becomes part of the local amenity bundle.\n    78\t\n    79\t#### Estimator comparison and design diagnostics.\n    80\t\n    81\tFor the preferred clean-onset design, the Sun-Abraham interaction-weighted path closely tracks the stacked path in the post-treatment period. The Sun coefficients are 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.016 at \\tau=2 , 0.036 at \\tau=4 , and 0.033 at \\tau=5 , and its joint pre-trend test is not rejected ( p=0.472 ). Table 3 places the preferred specification next to two nearby alternatives. Relative to the broader baseline threshold-2 design, clean-onset imposes more discipline on timing while preserving a similar medium-run magnitude. Relative to the neighbor-buffer variant, it avoids an extra layer of spatial pruning that mechanically strengthens post-treatment coefficients but yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore retain the unbuffered clean-onset design as the headline specification.\n    82\t\n    83\tTable 3: Main Design Diagnostics for the Headline Event-Study Specification\n    84\t\n    85\t[Extract editor's note: the header row of Table 3 is garbled in the HTML rendering; the six columns are, in order: Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend p | Sun pre-trend p | tau=4 coefficient | tau=5 coefficient.]\n    86\t\n    87\tp p \\tau=4 \\tau=5 Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend | Sun pre-trend | |\n    88\t\n    89\tBaseline threshold-2 | 1,084 | 0.342 | 0.223 | 0.029 | 0.022\n    90\t\n    91\tClean-onset threshold-2 | 774 | 0.241 | 0.472 | 0.037 | 0.034\n    92\t\n    93\tClean-onset + neighbor buffer | 774 | 0.126 | 0.239 | 0.042 | 0.040\n    94\t\n    95\t•\n    96\t\n    97\tNotes: Entries in the last two columns are log-point coefficients relative to \\tau=-1 . The baseline row uses the broader threshold-2 treatment without the clean-onset restriction. The preferred row uses the clean-onset threshold-2 treatment with a two-year lookback window and no prior eligible entry. The buffer row applies a first-order neighboring-control exclusion to the preferred design.\n    98\t\n    99\tFigure 2: Preferred clean-onset event-study estimates for entry of food-and-drink establishments. Point estimates are reported relative to the year before treatment ( \\tau=-1 ), which is shown as the open reference marker at zero, and plotted with 95% confidence intervals. Gray bars report the number of treated observations contributing to each event-time coefficient. The estimated path rises gradually from near zero in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five after entry.\n   100\t\n   101\t### 3.3 Robustness Checks\n   102\t\n   103\tThe main robustness question is whether the positive post-entry path survives plausible threats from spatial spillovers and concurrent redevelopment. Excluding first-order neighboring controls leaves the qualitative pattern intact and slightly strengthens post-treatment coefficients, but it also yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore treat the buffer variant as a supporting robustness check rather than as a replacement for the headline design. Planning-start outcome diagnostics are reported in Appendix Table 5 and are not used to select the preferred specification.\n   104\t\n   105\t## 5 Conclusion\n   106\t\n   107\tThis paper studies whether entry of food-and-drink establishments is followed by changes in neighborhood house prices in Greater London. In the preferred clean-onset event-study estimates, areas exposed to entry experience a gradual post-entry appreciation that reaches roughly 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The evidence is consistent with local amenity capitalization following visible commercial change, while also underscoring the need for continued falsification and treatment-validation work before treating the dynamic magnitudes as fully settled.","is_error":false},{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01UoUD2iGs1S8XHYQ3d7uW7F","type":"tool_result","content":"     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2505.04555v3\n     2\tTitle: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n     3\tAuthors: Hayato Kanayama; Sho Miyaji; Suguru Otani\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], version 1 submitted 7 May 2025, version 2 submitted 27 May 2025, version 3 (this extract) submitted 16 Mar 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2505.04555v3 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2b68299cbc49f208a0340bd233007fe922f6d4245e0a642db526662d359789b)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Appendix A.1 'Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages' in full (Table 2 with its note and the discussion paragraph).\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-7, the other appendices, the references. The 'Current version' date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n    13\t\n    14\tHayato Kanayama (Waseda University), Sho Miyaji (Yale University), Suguru Otani (The University of Tokyo)\n    15\t\n    16\t###### Abstract\n    17\t\n    18\tHow labor markets adjust immediately after minimum wage hikes remains an open, policy-relevant question. This paper studies short-run minimum-wage effects in Japan’s spot labor market using Timee data and a wage-bin difference-in-differences design. We find a 2% employment decline in affected bins, driven by reduced vacancy creation rather than worker supply. Effects are more negative where the minimum-wage bite is higher and in low-wage occupations. Using job descriptions and amenity information, we document reallocation across job types: postings shift toward greater amenity provision and experienced-worker targeting, while female-targeted descriptions become less common, suggesting short-run labor-demand adjustments may foreshadow longer-run reallocation.\n    19\t\n    20\tKeywords: minimum wage, employment, job amenities, gig workers, spot work, difference-in-differences\n    21\t\n    22\tJEL codes: J21, J23, J38, J88\n    23\t\n    24\t## Appendix A Additional Analysis\n    25\t\n    26\t### A.1 Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages\n    27\t\n    28\tFollowing the method of Cengiz et al. (2019), we estimate (i) the elasticity of employment with respect to minimum wages and (ii) the employment elasticity with respect to the affected wages.\n    29\t\n    30\tTable 2: Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment and Wages\n    31\t\n    32\t| Estimate (SE)\n    33\t\n    34\tMissing jobs below new MW | -0.03\n    35\t\n    36\t| (0.006)\n    37\t\n    38\tExcess jobs above new MW | 0.012\n    39\t\n    40\t| (0.002)\n    41\t\n    42\tAffected wages | 0.366\n    43\t\n    44\t| (0.171)\n    45\t\n    46\tAffected employment | -0.268\n    47\t\n    48\t| (0.091)\n    49\t\n    50\tEmployment elasticity w.r.t MW | -0.388\n    51\t\n    52\t| (0.132)\n    53\t\n    54\tEmp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage | -0.732\n    55\t\n    56\t| (0.091)\n    57\t\n    58\tJob below new MW | 0.068\n    59\t\n    60\t% MW changes | 0.047\n    61\t\n    62\tNote: The table reports the effects of a minimum wage increase based on the event study analysis exploiting 47 prefecture-level minimum wage changes in 2023 (i.e., about 4% minimum wage increase). The table reports six-month averaged post-treatment estimates on missing jobs up to 100 JPY below the new minimum wage, excess jobs at and up to 300 JPY above it, employment, and wages. Robust standard errors in parentheses are clustered by wage bins separated by 10 JPY.\n    63\t\n    64\tTable 2 reports six-month–averaged post-treatment effects for the baseline specification depicted in Figure 7.\n    65\tThe magnitude of missing jobs below new minimum wages exceeds the magnitude of excess jobs above new minimum wages in the six-month window.\n    66\tThe estimated employment elasticity with respect to the minimum wage is - 0.388 , which is consistent with Figure 7. Unlike the findings of Cengiz et al. (2019) and Dube and Zipperer (2024), our own-wage employment elasticity is - 0.732 , indicating a larger (absolute) employment response to affected wages than the median estimate (- 0.13 ) reported by Dube and Lindner (2024).\n     1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2510.03658v1\n     2\tTitle: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n     3\tAuthors: Selidji Caroline Tossou\n     4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN], submitted 4 Oct 2025 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1\n     5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2510.03658v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2d9f04dcf4789983c28f97dc13705eb2d6ed583c4860c940f921d7b549aea59)\n     6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n     7\tExtract contents: title, author and abstract; Section 4.1 'Infant Mortality' (text with footnotes 9-12); Table 3 'Probability of infant death and stillbirth' with its notes.\n     8\tOmitted: Sections 1-3, 4.2-6, Tables 1-2 and 4-16, the references. The date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n     9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n    10\t================================================================\n    11\t\n    12\t# Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n    13\t\n    14\tSelidji Caroline Tossou (University of Wisconsin-Madison)\n    15\t\n    16\t###### Abstract\n    17\t\n    18\tThis paper evaluates the causal effect of the access to Benin’s free cesarean section policy on females and their children. I use a large sample of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for West African countries and analyze how the exemption of the cesarean section user fees for females in Benin directly impacts maternal and infant mortality, family size decisions, and labor market participation. I use a Difference in Differences approach and find that having access to the free cesarean section policy significantly reduces the number of stillbirths and infant mortality by 0.0855 (a 18.79 percentage change). Second, for the surviving children, I find that access to the free cesarean section increases the likelihood of maternal mortality by 0.00465 (a 5.21 percentage change). The policy is effective at reducing infant mortality and saving the newborn. However, it harms the mother’s health which translates to lower fertility after the first birth and decreased maternal labor supply post-birth.\n    19\t\n    20\t## 4 Findings\n    21\t\n    22\t### 4.1 Infant Mortality\n    23\t\n    24\tI first investigate the infant death rate under the policy.\n    25\tFigure 15 shows that the exemption of cesarean section fees in Benin leads to an increase in the use of the service. What are the implications for infant mortality? I use a Difference in Differences specification to explore the possible impacts of access to the free cesarean section on infant mortality. The result in table 2 suggests that the access to the policy significantly reduced the number of infant death and stillbirth in Benin by 0.0855 (this represents a percentage change of 18.79 percent^9^9\n    26\t9\n    27\t\n    28\tI divide the estimate of beta by the mean of the dependent variable: -0.0855/0.455=-0.1879 ). This means that for over 100 newborns who would have died in the absence of the policy, approximately 18 are saved because of the access to the exemption of the cesarean section user fees. This result is promising and aligns with the goals of the free cesarean section policy, which primarily intends to lower the infant mortality in Benin. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first paper that evaluates the causal effect of free cesarean section policy on Benin’s infant mortality. Wealth and education attainment play a role in decreasing infant mortality. This can be explained by the fact that the free cesarean section covers only the surgery and a medicine kit for the mother. It does not cover prenatal and antepartum checkups. So a pregnant woman who has the means is more likely to identify and prevent any problems related to the pregnancy and the newborn’s health. Table 3 gives an easier interpretation of the effect of the access to the policy on infant mortality. In this table, the outcome of interest is a binary variable that takes value 1 if a female has an infant death or a pregnancy loss in the three years preceding the data collection and 0 otherwise. Thus, I interpret the coefficient \\hat{\\beta_{1}} as the effect of the policy on the likelihood of infant mortality. Using my most preferred specification (Column (4)), the result suggests that access to the policy decreases the likelihood of infant death or pregnancy loss of a female in Benin by 0.0962. Compared to the mean of the dependent variable, this effect represents a percentage change of 36.85 percent. To see which female category is driving this result, I decompose the effect by age group, wealth index, and education attainment.\n    29\t\n    30\tThe first panel of table 4 presents the stratification by age group. The policy is more effective at reducing infant mortality for females older than 25. For females between 15 and 24, the probability of infant mortality is reduced by only 4.65 percent compared to a reduction of 30.85 percent for a female between 25 and 34, a reduction of 43.53 percent for females between 35 and 44, and the highest decrease of 47.25 percent for females between 45 and 49^10^10\n    31\t10\n    32\t\n    33\tThese are the percentage change of infant mortality obtained by dividing the coefficient estimated by the mean of the dependent variable. The same exercise is done by using the wealth index of females. The results in the second panel of table 4 suggest that the effect of the free cesarean section on infant mortality is the biggest for females who are the poorest, poorer, or have a middle wealth index^11^11\n    34\t11\n    35\t\n    36\tThe modalities Poorest, Poorer, Middle, Richer, and Richest are pre-computed in the DHS data (46.36 percent, 35.84 percent, and 41.72 percent respectively). For the richer and richest females, the effect of the policy is a percentage change reduction of 28.52 percent and 16.47 percent on the likelihood of infant death. The last panel of table 4 gives a stratification by education level. The highest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-39.07 percent) is for females who have no education level. The lowest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-1.4 percent) is for females who have higher education levels.^12^12\n    37\t12\n    38\t\n    39\tI test the difference between all the coefficients and they are all significant and statistically different\n    40\t\n    41\tTo summarize, I find that access to the free cesarean section in Benin reduces the likelihood of infant mortality on average by 36.85 percent. The policy is more effective at reducing infant death for older females, females who are below the middle wealth index, and females who have no education.\n    42\t\n    43\tTable 3: Probability of infant death and stillbirth\n    44\t\n    45\t| Probability of Infant death or stillbirth | | |\n    46\t\n    47\t| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4)\n    48\t\n    49\tTreatment | -0.0911 | -0.0908 | -0.0961 | -0.0962\n    50\t\n    51\t| (0.0113) | (0.0113) | (0.0126) | (0.0129)\n    52\t\n    53\tEducation Attainment | -0.0578 | -0.0576 | -0.0443 | -0.0443\n    54\t\n    55\t| (0.00346) | (0.00340) | (0.00415) | (0.00420)\n    56\t\n    57\tAge of Female | 0.0168 | 0.0170 | 0.0171 | 0.0171\n    58\t\n    59\t| (0.00108) | (0.00112) | (0.00104) | (0.00108)\n    60\t\n    61\tAge of Partner | | -0.000425 | -0.000448 | -0.000435\n    62\t\n    63\t| | (0.000183) | (0.000151) | (0.000152)\n    64\t\n    65\tWealth Index | | | -0.0302 | -0.0302\n    66\t\n    67\t| | | (0.00277) | (0.00277)\n    68\t\n    69\tMarital Status | | | | 0.00128\n    70\t\n    71\t| | | | (0.00421)\n    72\t\n    73\tCountry Fixed Effect | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n    74\t\n    75\tTime Fixed Effect. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n    76\t\n    77\t_cons | -0.129 | -0.114 | -0.0400 | -0.0406\n    78\t\n    79\t| (0.0323) | (0.0298) | (0.0266) | (0.0255)\n    80\t\n    81\tObservations | 196554 | 196424 | 196424 | 196423\n    82\t\n    83\t% Change | -0.3490 | -0.3478 | -0.3681 | -0.3685\n    84\t\n    85\tR-squared | 0.196 | 0.197 | 0.204 | 0.204\n    86\t\n    87\tMean Dep. Var. | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261\n    88\t\n    89\tStandard errors in parentheses; Standard errors are clustered at the household level. | | | |\n    90\t\n    91\tDep. Var. Mean is the dependent variable mean. Treatment is Benin Females after 2008 | | | 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-p out/state/gate_receipts; ls ~/wp29/gates/; cat > out/state/log.md <<'EOF'\n# Log\n- 2026-10-30 P0 started: read TASK.md, gate_spec.json, data/README.md.\nEOF\ncat > out/state/contract.md <<'EOF'\n# Contract (F4-conf-04)\n**Question.** For each of five references (R1–R5) in `data/reference_list.json`, verify against its source extract (only admissible evidence) whether (i) the title matches the document title (minor typographic differences allowed), (ii) the year equals the first-submission year or the year of the reproduced version (from the \"Bibliographic record\" line), (iii) every element of `cited_for` (magnitudes, uncertainty, timing, population) is stated in, or follows arithmetically from, the extract.\n**Estimand.** Set of unverifiable references (fail >=1 check), per-reference record of three booleans + locator + note; n_verified.\n**Assumptions.** Extracts are faithful; \"stated\" means present in header/body; author formatting not grounds for flagging.\n**Outputs.** out/results.json keys: reference_checks, unverifiable_references, n_verified, task_id=\"F4-conf-04\", feasibility, feasibility_reason, data_issues, n_input_rows ({file: wc -l lines or JSON top-level items}), n_analysed, random_seed=null. out/report.md (Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues), out/analysis.py (regenerates results.json, prints relied-on header lines/cells), out/claims.json, out/exclusions.csv, out/state/*.\n**Information rules.** No memory of papers, other versions or external databases. Numbers exactly as printed.\n**Invalidity.** Missing/mismatched source files (hash mismatch), use of external knowledge, fabricated values.\nEOF\necho ok","description":"Write contract and 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-p out/state/gate_receipts; ls ~/wp29/gates/; cat > out/state/log.md <<'EOF'\n# Log\n- 2026-10-30 P0 started: read TASK.md, gate_spec.json, data/README.md.\nEOF\ncat > out/state/contract.md <<'EOF'\n# Contract (F4-conf-04)\n**Question.** For each of five references (R1–R5) in `data/reference_list.json`, verify against its source extract (only admissible evidence) whether (i) the title matches the document title (minor typographic differences allowed), (ii) the year equals the first-submission year or the year of the reproduced version (from the \"Bibliographic record\" line), (iii) every element of `cited_for` (magnitudes, uncertainty, timing, population) is stated in, or follows arithmetically from, the extract.\n**Estimand.** Set of unverifiable references (fail >=1 check), per-reference record of three booleans + locator + note; n_verified.\n**Assumptions.** Extracts are faithful; \"stated\" means present in header/body; author formatting not grounds for flagging.\n**Outputs.** out/results.json keys: reference_checks, unverifiable_references, n_verified, task_id=\"F4-conf-04\", feasibility, feasibility_reason, data_issues, n_input_rows ({file: wc -l lines or JSON top-level items}), n_analysed, random_seed=null. out/report.md (Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues), out/analysis.py (regenerates results.json, prints relied-on header lines/cells), out/claims.json, out/exclusions.csv, out/state/*.\n**Information rules.** No memory of papers, other versions or external databases. Numbers exactly as printed.\n**Invalidity.** Missing/mismatched source files (hash mismatch), use of external knowledge, fabricated values.\nEOF\necho ok","description":"Write contract and log"}}]}}47{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","id":"412f80bf-9257-4135-8125-e7e9812fc7ed","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:35.018Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"eaffde6ae9e2e91192f203c772f0301fe14f7474cb0f6724b667c381c9ebd143","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"357a80ee-fa9d-4c95-bf25-a85c499bae61","keep":10,"tail":["c0d63fb27310df6eb47bda092475c1c29841de94e7a5bff5cbc6b058a25b8944","9f569584f0c7bf4946dd6aa63b6acbfdf624acc66cfe9c8dd0a0cdfd09bcee51"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",11,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"c8ef86210742848f51495bb2b700c9926208961afbefa56e01f6dc6412f3b56f"}48{"parentUuid":"7919cb05-71ee-47cc-a0d1-ca03e63408fb","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrL3fw5525i1Pyw2kaL","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":2601,"cache_read_input_tokens":32143,"output_tokens":1271,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":48},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":2601},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"thinkingDurationMs":295,"thinkingDisplay":"updates","apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXrL3PJrXYgne9nHj4wd","requestRef":"412f80bf-9257-4135-8125-e7e9812fc7ed","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"e472f680-b8b0-4cec-8dbb-96256b5c1e36","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:36.939Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}49{"parentUuid":"e472f680-b8b0-4cec-8dbb-96256b5c1e36","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrL3fw5525i1Pyw2kaL","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_015GMh8UcZMF1pc5AanmCsAd","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/state/data_audit.md <<'EOF'\n# Data audit\n| file | SHA-256 | lines (wc -l) | matches README/bundle |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| data/README.md | c6d375725356176fa7600ab663d9306c5f37c1097b619792bcbed166ccc792b2 | 17 | yes (bundle.json) |\n| data/reference_list.json | 7ab6cbf2606f90f3174215214feddd73533d29cda4befdc77ffdb595193ab5da | 5 top-level items | yes (bundle.json) |\n| data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt | ee2d444d…a8b | 134 | yes |\n| data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt | 27c463c0…238 | 58 | yes |\n| data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt | 3cb9a4f3…55 | 107 | yes |\n| data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt | b1731a9b…5cb | 66 | yes |\n| data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt | f8782937…127 | 91 | yes |\n\nSchema: reference_list.json = list of 5 objects {id, entry, cited_for, source_file}; ids R1–R5 unique, no missing fields, every source_file exists. Each extract has a provenance header (Title, Authors, Bibliographic record with submission dates) then the body.\n\nDates: R1 source v1 23 Sep 2026; R2 v1 12 Jun 2026; R3 v1 3 Mar 2026, v2 2 Apr 2026; R4 v1 7 May 2025, v3 16 Mar 2026; R5 v1 4 Oct 2025.\n\n## Anomalies found (internal to sources)\n- arxiv-2609.27732v1: Table 6 5 km ATT SE (0.210) vs Table A19 CS-DR column SE (0.218) for the same specification; Table 6 says 608 never-treated control regions, A19 note says 640. Abstract says fatal outcomes fall by 35% whereas Section 6.1 says ~30% (Table 7: -0.354 log points).\n- arxiv-2505.04555v3: SE of own-wage elasticity (0.091) identical to SE of \"Affected employment\"; table note says \"about 4%\" MW increase while \"% MW changes\" row is 0.047.\n- arxiv-2510.03658v1: Table 3 \"% Change\" col (4) is -0.3685 while -0.0962/0.261 = -0.3686 (rounding); abstract's headline (0.0855, 18.79%, mean 0.455) refers to a different outcome/table (Table 2, omitted).\n- arxiv-2603.03260v2: Table 3 header row garbled (editor note supplies column names); used as documented.\n- arxiv-2606.14621v1: Tables re-set by extract editor (documented); \"p ¡ 0.001\" rendering glyph in Section 3 text.\n\n## Information-availability\nNo input violates the rules; only the extracts are used. No exclusions are applied (5 references in, 5 analysed).\nEOF\nprintf 'step,rule,n_before,n_after,n_removed,rationale\\n1,none: all references assessed,5,5,0,No filtering needed; every reference has an existing source extract\\n' > out/exclusions.csv; echo ok","description":"Write data audit and exclusions ledger"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":2601,"cache_read_input_tokens":32143,"output_tokens":1271,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":48},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":2601},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXrL3PJrXYgne9nHj4wd","requestRef":"412f80bf-9257-4135-8125-e7e9812fc7ed","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"5470f4da-4e80-401c-b338-57899c9a3377","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:47.895Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}50{"parentUuid":"5470f4da-4e80-401c-b338-57899c9a3377","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f9f57fbc-a9e1-4f82-bec9-e476caed3cfb","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_015GMh8UcZMF1pc5AanmCsAd","type":"tool_result","content":"ok","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"00d06ee0-678a-4e5a-ad4b-980660491445","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:47.950Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"ok","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"5470f4da-4e80-401c-b338-57899c9a3377","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}51{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","hash":"158a0b3a890a4e8b36812a00eaafdbd76e3f82dc5558d331fab92cce3c047fba","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_015GMh8UcZMF1pc5AanmCsAd","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/state/data_audit.md <<'EOF'\n# Data audit\n| file | SHA-256 | lines (wc -l) | matches README/bundle |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| data/README.md | c6d375725356176fa7600ab663d9306c5f37c1097b619792bcbed166ccc792b2 | 17 | yes (bundle.json) |\n| data/reference_list.json | 7ab6cbf2606f90f3174215214feddd73533d29cda4befdc77ffdb595193ab5da | 5 top-level items | yes (bundle.json) |\n| data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt | ee2d444d…a8b | 134 | yes |\n| data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt | 27c463c0…238 | 58 | yes |\n| data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt | 3cb9a4f3…55 | 107 | yes |\n| data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt | b1731a9b…5cb | 66 | yes |\n| data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt | f8782937…127 | 91 | yes |\n\nSchema: reference_list.json = list of 5 objects {id, entry, cited_for, source_file}; ids R1–R5 unique, no missing fields, every source_file exists. Each extract has a provenance header (Title, Authors, Bibliographic record with submission dates) then the body.\n\nDates: R1 source v1 23 Sep 2026; R2 v1 12 Jun 2026; R3 v1 3 Mar 2026, v2 2 Apr 2026; R4 v1 7 May 2025, v3 16 Mar 2026; R5 v1 4 Oct 2025.\n\n## Anomalies found (internal to sources)\n- arxiv-2609.27732v1: Table 6 5 km ATT SE (0.210) vs Table A19 CS-DR column SE (0.218) for the same specification; Table 6 says 608 never-treated control regions, A19 note says 640. Abstract says fatal outcomes fall by 35% whereas Section 6.1 says ~30% (Table 7: -0.354 log points).\n- arxiv-2505.04555v3: SE of own-wage elasticity (0.091) identical to SE of \"Affected employment\"; table note says \"about 4%\" MW increase while \"% MW changes\" row is 0.047.\n- arxiv-2510.03658v1: Table 3 \"% Change\" col (4) is -0.3685 while -0.0962/0.261 = -0.3686 (rounding); abstract's headline (0.0855, 18.79%, mean 0.455) refers to a different outcome/table (Table 2, omitted).\n- arxiv-2603.03260v2: Table 3 header row garbled (editor note supplies column names); used as documented.\n- arxiv-2606.14621v1: Tables re-set by extract editor (documented); \"p ¡ 0.001\" rendering glyph in Section 3 text.\n\n## Information-availability\nNo input violates the rules; only the extracts are used. No exclusions are applied (5 references in, 5 analysed).\nEOF\nprintf 'step,rule,n_before,n_after,n_removed,rationale\\n1,none: all references assessed,5,5,0,No filtering needed; every reference has an existing source extract\\n' > out/exclusions.csv; echo ok","description":"Write data audit and exclusions ledger"}}]}}52{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","id":"2a497f8a-5e3d-48f9-99d7-036525d4bf0f","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:47.953Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"eaffde6ae9e2e91192f203c772f0301fe14f7474cb0f6724b667c381c9ebd143","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"412f80bf-9257-4135-8125-e7e9812fc7ed","keep":12,"tail":["158a0b3a890a4e8b36812a00eaafdbd76e3f82dc5558d331fab92cce3c047fba","16656e5d0d50293c702b1830e2d463ca97251d927a59071a20a6534a5d956fbb"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",13,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"66992f6c7a5757c21560b82539c2dd2de922b4eae17a59e3025782c417e9e0d4"}53{"type":"last-prompt","lastPrompt":"Begin","leafUuid":"00d06ee0-678a-4e5a-ad4b-980660491445","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34"}54{"type":"atis-latch","atis":"","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34"}55{"parentUuid":"00d06ee0-678a-4e5a-ad4b-980660491445","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrM11E5jUGJNH3g3aTw","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"CAQS8AcKEAgTGAI4AUIIdGhpbmtpbmcSDKaPvoO9leUpCjzGMBoMT9xIaRPvjgLX57J/IjBKRn/VqGyGIsNX52Q0T6RC2TaOkBxg9h4PjkIFd4bupEWLbMtY7xo64JSG4LJcWYMqjQeLlunz8gebVkygQt0qOcp7eMwas6BYOe5BBLj8AVlCdTaaJMJPs8dc73VU8HXcBIjm9kQ5S87++mDfjFbF9E0SKj/9cW2hhlSRKdPQLF0Fteuoq86qDVDURonDaf3bFxF+Q7RaDFStK7hX11G7+3qsVdaNL3AsZmnuoQhWRkTCX6VIFzCFM+KSsz7Ov5M1gJKdOdLUDrWlX/eIHE/FIh/jDViyp4LiLVuuuhLEL8+qlmFSnGkFiuZvzM7j7mtJ2Bn/9Gp2BUhAIP/t7OYUq7yXOfBEU1oN4HeBu+z/f6iQMbG6/5iEQU1NHROCQ+87SsuDARKCCbRNG1fB3+1zuz65odL9zhoumHN6iTcqmuQBXQdOL+QE+FZVa2xRP4SzSPibIj0DgEajOHb8xp8mD22BAAaxus+soAQfAyXU+8RB8WPxwMO2TZ0pL9MFuV3WyhHS0c6Y74qeWdR5tzqS0OhGXmytulcn5AF1z29nMXC34isgMnduKFm1xheCNXl8Pj97n1cVu8moNP9zFUionkAfWnsodsndhP9QfpHXvG8KaO2Rwb6TccoZlc69wr3M5xV5ulnEsba3HipLvezHnFEs8yOX3NnQBaJU2j7K1+XNWkN+of0dUnsP5X3x+M0sk0UDPVL8mrnWL4YK9h7LQ3VwsUtWstpxR9vnXRjhjG+6RQJH79UgzYY4s5Inq84de8xFm/9FY2Q08M50drJXE0nl64mW7wOrYKMjiEYx64GptZRb55hrCZQo2lSm+jKi1rp/Ojzk0em20SF1/xZYuvhk5B3yMNR1fcq9hezua+n98KcoTvBhWaoXVAjrYHjdV3pnP1/iOElYg0EJirN7ismA+EpdeTqOCPyjbv+PjivRUJeBTAcgXqgH0GMSSeBgvx3P1ikedljkSGDJkNn2naQZ3u9GEaAgWyViBuxN75n1RtyfoVah7uPKeXfupZHkikLm7VSsbgisV/KhVMg3+npcHFKRnSeHQuk3UhJlycs5o6+sC1sFqlsMthi3G9C3d/kvVwiZrF4J60ToM+JBQ61yRf+/CsDYibfUAIfSxPJE1gXen8UdIx0JKYaSv4AG5vq96RSSCUDLLxInuiX/j+Kv1benlUlnXp+ldEEF3K6Md1yW6GYPZipEE7ou3fevUtYJ/Ufsh5saw9UgSt6xSQ/7/A7tdwv+Q+14i5dhBQV190b9Bbi5x1mK9ADSnH8YAQ=="}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":1278,"cache_read_input_tokens":34744,"output_tokens":5527,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":100},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":1278},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"thinkingDurationMs":972,"thinkingDisplay":"updates","apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXrLzgdPtrWYj6mFkKmQ","requestRef":"2a497f8a-5e3d-48f9-99d7-036525d4bf0f","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"413c5791-788f-4543-ac79-63433b58f7b6","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:14:50.601Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}56{"parentUuid":"413c5791-788f-4543-ac79-63433b58f7b6","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrM11E5jUGJNH3g3aTw","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_014L21Fjv7yBCJpzzxboYwZG","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/analysis.py <<'EOF'\n\"\"\"F4-conf-04: verify five references against source extracts. Reads data/ only; writes out/results.json.\nNo randomness (random_seed = null).\"\"\"\nimport json, os, re, unicodedata\n\nROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))\nD = os.path.join(ROOT, \"data\")\nOUT = os.path.join(ROOT, \"out\")\n\ndef wc_l(path):\n    with open(path, \"rb\") as f:\n        return f.read().count(b\"\\n\")\n\nrefs = json.load(open(os.path.join(D, \"reference_list.json\"), encoding=\"utf-8\"))\nn_input_rows = {\"README.md\": wc_l(os.path.join(D, \"README.md\")), \"reference_list.json\": len(refs)}\nsrc = {}\nfor r in refs:\n    p = os.path.join(D, r[\"source_file\"])\n    src[r[\"id\"]] = open(p, encoding=\"utf-8\").read().splitlines()\n    n_input_rows[os.path.basename(p)] = wc_l(p)\n\ndef norm(s):\n    s = unicodedata.normalize(\"NFKD\", s)\n    s = \"\".join(c for c in s if not unicodedata.combining(c)).lower().replace(\"&\", \"and\")\n    return re.sub(r\"[^a-z0-9]+\", \" \", s).strip()\n\ndef header(lines, key):\n    for ln in lines:\n        if ln.startswith(key + \":\"):\n            return ln[len(key) + 1:].strip()\n    raise KeyError(key)\n\ndef find_line(lines, pattern):\n    \"\"\"Return (lineno, line) of first line matching regex pattern; raises if absent.\"\"\"\n    for i, ln in enumerate(lines, 1):\n        if re.search(pattern, ln):\n            return i, ln\n    raise ValueError(\"pattern not found: \" + pattern)\n\ndef show(rid, lines, pattern, nxt=0):\n    i, ln = find_line(lines, pattern)\n    print(f\"  [{rid} L{i}] {ln.strip()[:200]}\")\n    out = [ln]\n    for k in range(1, nxt + 1):\n        # skip blank lines to fetch the following non-empty line (SE row)\n        j = i\n        while True:\n            j += 1\n            if lines[j - 1].strip():\n                break\n        print(f\"  [{rid} L{j}] {lines[j-1].strip()[:200]}\")\n        out.append(lines[j - 1])\n    return out\n\ndef cells(line):\n    return [c.strip() for c in line.split(\"|\")]\n\nchecks, baseline = {}, []\nfor r in refs:\n    rid, L = r[\"id\"], src[r[\"id\"]]\n    print(f\"== {rid}: {r['source_file']}\")\n    title = header(L, \"Title\"); bib = header(L, \"Bibliographic record\")\n    print(\"  Title:\", title); print(\"  Bibliographic record:\", bib)\n    # body title line must agree with header title\n    body_title = [ln[2:].strip() for ln in L if ln.startswith(\"# \")][0]\n    assert norm(body_title) == norm(title), rid\n    # entry title = text between \"(YYYY). \" and \". arXiv:\"\n    m = re.match(r\"^(.*?)\\((\\d{4})\\)\\.\\s+(.*)\\.\\s+arXiv:(\\d{4}\\.\\d{5})\\.?$\", r[\"entry\"])\n    entry_year, entry_title, entry_arxiv = int(m.group(2)), m.group(3), m.group(4)\n    assert entry_arxiv in bib, rid\n    years = sorted({int(y) for y in re.findall(r\"submitted \\d{1,2} \\w{3} (\\d{4})\", bib)})\n    title_ok = norm(entry_title) == norm(title)\n    year_ok = entry_year in years  # years = first submission year and reproduced-version year (and any intermediate)\n    print(f\"  entry title match={title_ok}; entry year {entry_year} vs submission years {years} -> {year_ok}\")\n    checks[rid] = {\"title_matches\": title_ok, \"year_matches\": year_ok}\n    if not (title_ok and year_ok):\n        baseline.append(rid)\n\n# ---------------- finding checks (element by element) ----------------\nfs = {}\n# R1: Table 6, 5 km column\nL = src[\"R1\"]\natt, se = show(\"R1\", L, r\"^ATT \\| -0\\.399\", 1)\npc = show(\"R1\", L, r\"^% change \\| -32\\.9%\")[0]\nshow(\"R1\", L, r\"statistically significant at the 5% level\")\nshow(\"R1\", L, r\"staggered introduction of DCRs\")\na5, s5, p5 = cells(att)[3], cells(se)[3], cells(pc)[3]\ne = {\"ATT -0.431\": a5.startswith(\"-0.431\"),\n     \"SE 0.210\": s5 == \"(0.210)\",\n     \"5% significance (** marker)\": a5.endswith(\"**\") and not a5.endswith(\"***\"),\n     \"roughly 35%\": p5 == \"-35.0%\",\n     \"within 5 km\": \"within 5 km of a facility\" in \"\\n\".join(L),\n     \"staggered DiD on Swiss hospital records\": bool(re.search(r\"staggered introduction of DCRs across Swiss cities.*hospital records and a difference-in-differences\", \"\\n\".join(L)))}\nprint(\"  R1 elements:\", e)\nfs[\"R1\"] = (all(e.values()), \"arxiv-2609.27732v1 | Table 6, row ATT / % change, column 5 km\",\n            \"Table 6 (5 km) prints ATT -0.431** with SE (0.210) and -35.0%, and the abstract states a staggered DiD on Swiss hospital records, so every element is supported (Table A19 prints SE 0.218 for the same specification, recorded as a data issue).\")\n\n# R2: Table 2, Average treatment effect column\nL = src[\"R2\"]; T = \"\\n\".join(L)\nw = cells(show(\"R2\", L, r\"^Wage \\| \\$33,073\")[0])[4]\nre_ = cells(show(\"R2\", L, r\"^Reemployment \\| 75\\.2%\")[0])[4]\nui = cells(show(\"R2\", L, r\"^Weeks on UI \\| 15\\.2\")[0])[4]\nshow(\"R2\", L, r\"N = 23,549\")\ne = {\"preregistered RCT N = 23,549\": \"large (N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial\" in T,\n     \"wage +$1,153\": w.startswith(\"$1,153\"), \"95% CI [166, 2,141]\": \"95% CI: [166, 2,141]\" in w,\n     \"reemployment +1.47 pp\": re_.startswith(\"1.47 pp\"), \"weeks on UI -1.99\": ui.startswith(\"-1.99 weeks\"),\n     \"annualised wages\": \"$1,153 higher annually\" in T}\nprint(\"  R2 elements:\", e)\nfs[\"R2\"] = (all(e.values()), \"arxiv-2606.14621v1 | Table 2, column 'Average treatment effect estimate', rows Wage / Reemployment / Weeks on UI\",\n            \"Table 2's ATE column prints $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), 1.47 pp and -1.99 weeks, and the abstract gives the preregistered RCT with N = 23,549.\")\n\n# R3: timing claim vs Section 3.2 coefficients\nL = src[\"R3\"]; T = \"\\n\".join(L)\nline = show(\"R3\", L, r\"stacked coefficient is 0\\.005 at\")[0]\nrow = cells(show(\"R3\", L, r\"^Clean-onset threshold-2 \\|\")[0])\ncoef = {int(k): float(v) for v, k in re.findall(r\"(\\d\\.\\d{3}) at \\\\tau=(\\d)\", line)}\nprint(\"  R3 stacked coefficients by tau:\", coef, \"| Table 3 preferred tau=4,5:\", row[4], row[5])\ne = {\"3.4-3.7% jump in event year (tau=0 coef >= 0.034)\": coef[0] >= 0.034,\n     \"no further appreciation after event year\": max(coef.values()) <= coef[0],\n     \"3.4-3.7% magnitude exists somewhere (tau=4/5)\": float(row[4]) == 0.037 and float(row[5]) == 0.034}\nprint(\"  R3 elements:\", e)\nfs[\"R3\"] = (e[\"3.4-3.7% jump in event year (tau=0 coef >= 0.034)\"] and e[\"no further appreciation after event year\"],\n            \"arxiv-2603.03260v2 | Section 3.2 'Headline dynamic pattern' (stacked coefficients by tau) and Table 3, row Clean-onset threshold-2, columns tau=4 / tau=5\",\n            \"The 3.4-3.7% magnitude is reached only at tau=4-5 (0.037, 0.034) while the event-year coefficient is 0.005, so the claimed immediate jump with no later appreciation contradicts the source; title and year (2024 vs 2026) also disagree.\")\n\n# R4: Appendix A.1 Table 2\nL = src[\"R4\"]; T = \"\\n\".join(L)\nem = show(\"R4\", L, r\"^Employment elasticity w\\.r\\.t MW\", 1)\now = show(\"R4\", L, r\"^Emp\\. elasticity w\\.r\\.t affected wage\", 1)\nae = show(\"R4\", L, r\"^Affected employment\", 1); aw = show(\"R4\", L, r\"^Affected wages\", 1)\ne = {\"MW elasticity -0.388\": cells(em[0])[1] == \"-0.388\", \"SE 0.132\": cells(em[1])[1] == \"(0.132)\",\n     \"own-wage elasticity -0.732\": cells(ow[0])[1] == \"-0.732\", \"SE 0.091\": cells(ow[1])[1] == \"(0.091)\",\n     \"Japan's spot labour market\": \"Japan’s spot labor market\" in T}\nratio = float(cells(ae[0])[1]) / float(cells(aw[0])[1])\nprint(f\"  R4 elements: {e}; arithmetic check affected employment/affected wages = {ratio:.4f}\")\nfs[\"R4\"] = (all(e.values()), \"arxiv-2505.04555v3 | Appendix A.1 Table 2, rows 'Employment elasticity w.r.t MW' and 'Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage'\",\n            \"Table 2 prints -0.388 (0.132) and -0.732 (0.091) and the abstract places the study in Japan's spot labor market; the 0.091 SE duplicates the 'Affected employment' SE, recorded as a data issue.\")\n\n# R5: Table 3 column (4)\nL = src[\"R5\"]; T = \"\\n\".join(L)\ntr = show(\"R5\", L, r\"^Treatment \\| -0\\.0911\", 1)\npch = cells(show(\"R5\", L, r\"^% Change \\|\")[0]); mdv = cells(show(\"R5\", L, r\"^Mean Dep\\. Var\\. \\|\")[0])\nshow(\"R5\", L, r\"most preferred specification \\(Column \\(4\\)\\)\")\narith = float(cells(tr[0])[4]) / float(mdv[4])\ne = {\"-0.0962\": cells(tr[0])[4] == \"-0.0962\", \"SE 0.0129\": cells(tr[1])[4] == \"(0.0129)\",\n     \"preferred specification = col (4)\": \"most preferred specification (Column (4))\" in T,\n     \"36.85% relative to mean\": pch[4] == \"-0.3685\" and \"percentage change of 36.85 percent\" in T,\n     \"infant death or stillbirth\": \"Probability of Infant death or stillbirth\" in T}\nprint(f\"  R5 elements: {e}; arithmetic -0.0962/0.261 = {arith:.4f}\")\nfs[\"R5\"] = (all(e.values()), \"arxiv-2510.03658v1 | Table 3, row Treatment and row % Change, column (4); Section 4.1\",\n            \"Table 3 column (4), named the preferred specification in Section 4.1, prints -0.0962 (0.0129) and % Change -0.3685, matching the 36.85% stated in the text.\")\n\nfor rid, (ok, loc, note) in fs.items():\n    checks[rid].update({\"finding_supported\": bool(ok), \"locator\": loc})\n    c = checks[rid]\n    if not (c[\"title_matches\"] and c[\"year_matches\"]) and rid == \"R3\":\n        pass\n    checks[rid][\"note\"] = note\nunver = [rid for rid in sorted(checks) if not all(checks[rid][k] for k in (\"title_matches\", \"year_matches\", \"finding_supported\"))]\n\ndata_issues = [\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1: Table 6 prints SE (0.210) for the 5 km ATT -0.431 while Table A19 (CS-DR column, same 5 km specification) prints (0.218); Table 6 gives 608 control regions, the A19 note says 640.\",\n     \"handling\": \"R1's cited SE 0.210 matches the main-results Table 6, which is used as locator; the 5% significance claim holds under either SE (** marker in both tables). Recorded, not treated as a failure.\"},\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1: abstract says fatal outcomes fall by 35%, Section 6.1 says about 30% (Table 7 5 km: -0.354).\",\n     \"handling\": \"Not relevant to R1's cited finding; recorded only.\"},\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2505.04555v3: SE of the own-wage elasticity (0.091) is identical to the SE of 'Affected employment' (0.091), despite the elasticity being the ratio -0.268/0.366; note says 'about 4%' MW increase vs 0.047 in the table.\",\n     \"handling\": \"R4's cited values are printed verbatim in Table 2, so the finding check passes; the possibly duplicated SE is flagged as an open issue.\"},\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2510.03658v1: Table 3 '% Change' col (4) is -0.3685 while -0.0962/0.261 = -0.3686; the abstract's headline (0.0855, 18.79%) refers to a different outcome (Table 2, not in extract).\",\n     \"handling\": \"Rounding difference ignored (text explicitly states 36.85%); abstract figures not used for R5.\"},\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2603.03260v2: Table 3 header row garbled in the HTML rendering.\",\n     \"handling\": \"Used the extract editor's column names (tau=4, tau=5 coefficients in the last two columns).\"},\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2606.14621v1: Tables 2-3 re-set by the extract editor; 'p ¡ 0.001' glyph defect in Section 3 text.\",\n     \"handling\": \"Used the re-set tables as documented; glyph defect does not affect any checked value.\"},\n]\n\nresults = {\n    \"reference_checks\": checks,\n    \"unverifiable_references\": unver,\n    \"n_verified\": len(checks) - len(unver),\n    \"task_id\": \"F4-conf-04\",\n    \"feasibility\": \"complete\",\n    \"feasibility_reason\": None,\n    \"data_issues\": data_issues,\n    \"n_input_rows\": n_input_rows,\n    \"n_analysed\": len(checks),\n    \"random_seed\": None,\n    \"baseline_unverifiable_title_year_only\": baseline,\n    \"baseline_n_verified_title_year_only\": len(checks) - len(baseline),\n}\nos.makedirs(OUT, exist_ok=True)\nwith open(os.path.join(OUT, \"results.json\"), \"w\", encoding=\"utf-8\") as f:\n    json.dump(results, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False)\nprint(\"unverifiable_references:\", unver, \"| n_verified:\", results[\"n_verified\"])\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py","description":"Write and run the analysis script"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":1278,"cache_read_input_tokens":34744,"output_tokens":5527,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":100},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":1278},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXrLzgdPtrWYj6mFkKmQ","requestRef":"2a497f8a-5e3d-48f9-99d7-036525d4bf0f","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"97623a11-5d70-4342-9658-6197273ee456","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:15:31.278Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}57{"parentUuid":"97623a11-5d70-4342-9658-6197273ee456","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f9f57fbc-a9e1-4f82-bec9-e476caed3cfb","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_014L21Fjv7yBCJpzzxboYwZG","type":"tool_result","content":"== R1: sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt\n  Title: Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n  Bibliographic record: arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN], submitted 23 Sep 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1\n  entry title match=True; entry year 2026 vs submission years [2026] -> True\n== R2: sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\n  Title: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n  Bibliographic record: arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN], submitted 12 Jun 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1\n  entry title match=True; entry year 2026 vs submission years [2026] -> True\n== R3: sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\n  Title: Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n  Bibliographic record: arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], version 1 submitted 3 Mar 2026, version 2 (this extract) submitted 2 Apr 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2\n  entry title match=False; entry year 2024 vs submission years [2026] -> False\n== R4: sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\n  Title: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n  Bibliographic record: arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], version 1 submitted 7 May 2025, version 2 submitted 27 May 2025, version 3 (this extract) submitted 16 Mar 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3\n  entry title match=True; entry year 2025 vs submission years [2025, 2026] -> True\n== R5: sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\n  Title: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n  Bibliographic record: arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN], submitted 4 Oct 2025 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1\n  entry title match=True; entry year 2025 vs submission years [2025] -> True\n  [R1 L36] ATT | -0.399 | -0.283 | -0.431**\n  [R1 L38] | (0.412) | (0.279) | (0.210)\n  [R1 L40] % change | -32.9% | -24.7% | -35.0%\n  [R1 L55] corresponding to a 35% reduction in the drug-related hospitalization rate. This estimate is statistically significant at the 5% level. The 3 km and 1 km estimates point in the same direction but are l\n  [R1 L18] This paper estimates the causal effect of drug consumption room (DCR) openings on drug-related hospitalizations in Switzerland. I exploit the staggered introduction of DCRs across Swiss cities between\n  R1 elements: {'ATT -0.431': True, 'SE 0.210': True, '5% significance (** marker)': True, 'roughly 35%': True, 'within 5 km': True, 'staggered DiD on Swiss hospital records': True}\n  [R2 L28] Wage | $33,073 (SD: 36,749) | $33,043 (SD: 36,231) | $29; p=0.95; 95% CI: [-903, 962] | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\n  [R2 L29] Reemployment | 75.2% | 75.0% | 0.26 pp; p=0.64; 95% CI: [-0.84, 1.37] | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]\n  [R2 L30] Weeks on UI | 15.2 weeks (SD: 9.3) | 17.3 weeks (SD: 9.4) | -2.10 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.34, -1.86] | -1.99 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75]\n  [R2 L19] Prolonged unemployment carries serious economic, health, and wellbeing costs. With federal support, most U.S. states now operate a Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program to h\n  R2 elements: {'preregistered RCT N = 23,549': True, 'wage +$1,153': True, '95% CI [166, 2,141]': True, 'reemployment +1.47 pp': True, 'weeks on UI -1.99': True, 'annualised wages': True}\n  [R3 L77] Figure 2 reports the preferred clean-onset event-study path and overlays the event-time support behind each coefficient. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and imprecise, and the stacked joint pre-t\n  [R3 L91] Clean-onset threshold-2 | 774 | 0.241 | 0.472 | 0.037 | 0.034\n  R3 stacked coefficients by tau: {0: 0.005, 1: 0.012, 2: 0.018, 4: 0.037} | Table 3 preferred tau=4,5: 0.037 0.034\n  R3 elements: {'3.4-3.7% jump in event year (tau=0 coef >= 0.034)': False, 'no further appreciation after event year': False, '3.4-3.7% magnitude exists somewhere (tau=4/5)': True}\n  [R4 L50] Employment elasticity w.r.t MW | -0.388\n  [R4 L52] | (0.132)\n  [R4 L54] Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage | -0.732\n  [R4 L56] | (0.091)\n  [R4 L46] Affected employment | -0.268\n  [R4 L48] | (0.091)\n  [R4 L42] Affected wages | 0.366\n  [R4 L44] | (0.171)\n  R4 elements: {'MW elasticity -0.388': True, 'SE 0.132': True, 'own-wage elasticity -0.732': True, 'SE 0.091': True, \"Japan's spot labour market\": True}; arithmetic check affected employment/affected wages = -0.7322\n  [R5 L49] Treatment | -0.0911 | -0.0908 | -0.0961 | -0.0962\n  [R5 L51] | (0.0113) | (0.0113) | (0.0126) | (0.0129)\n  [R5 L83] % Change | -0.3490 | -0.3478 | -0.3681 | -0.3685\n  [R5 L87] Mean Dep. Var. | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261\n  [R5 L28] I divide the estimate of beta by the mean of the dependent variable: -0.0855/0.455=-0.1879 ). This means that for over 100 newborns who would have died in the absence of the policy, approximately 18 a\n  R5 elements: {'-0.0962': True, 'SE 0.0129': True, 'preferred specification = col (4)': True, '36.85% relative to mean': True, 'infant death or stillbirth': True}; arithmetic -0.0962/0.261 = -0.3686\nunverifiable_references: ['R3'] | n_verified: 4","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"d895e9b3-2f12-4354-8464-f91a23071bd5","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:15:31.352Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"== R1: sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt\n  Title: Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n  Bibliographic record: arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN], submitted 23 Sep 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1\n  entry title match=True; entry year 2026 vs submission years [2026] -> True\n== R2: sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\n  Title: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n  Bibliographic record: arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN], submitted 12 Jun 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1\n  entry title match=True; entry year 2026 vs submission years [2026] -> True\n== R3: sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\n  Title: Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n  Bibliographic record: arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], version 1 submitted 3 Mar 2026, version 2 (this extract) submitted 2 Apr 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2\n  entry title match=False; entry year 2024 vs submission years [2026] -> False\n== R4: sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\n  Title: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n  Bibliographic record: arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], version 1 submitted 7 May 2025, version 2 submitted 27 May 2025, version 3 (this extract) submitted 16 Mar 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3\n  entry title match=True; entry year 2025 vs submission years [2025, 2026] -> True\n== R5: sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\n  Title: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n  Bibliographic record: arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN], submitted 4 Oct 2025 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1\n  entry title match=True; entry year 2025 vs submission years [2025] -> True\n  [R1 L36] ATT | -0.399 | -0.283 | -0.431**\n  [R1 L38] | (0.412) | (0.279) | (0.210)\n  [R1 L40] % change | -32.9% | -24.7% | -35.0%\n  [R1 L55] corresponding to a 35% reduction in the drug-related hospitalization rate. This estimate is statistically significant at the 5% level. The 3 km and 1 km estimates point in the same direction but are l\n  [R1 L18] This paper estimates the causal effect of drug consumption room (DCR) openings on drug-related hospitalizations in Switzerland. I exploit the staggered introduction of DCRs across Swiss cities between\n  R1 elements: {'ATT -0.431': True, 'SE 0.210': True, '5% significance (** marker)': True, 'roughly 35%': True, 'within 5 km': True, 'staggered DiD on Swiss hospital records': True}\n  [R2 L28] Wage | $33,073 (SD: 36,749) | $33,043 (SD: 36,231) | $29; p=0.95; 95% CI: [-903, 962] | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\n  [R2 L29] Reemployment | 75.2% | 75.0% | 0.26 pp; p=0.64; 95% CI: [-0.84, 1.37] | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]\n  [R2 L30] Weeks on UI | 15.2 weeks (SD: 9.3) | 17.3 weeks (SD: 9.4) | -2.10 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.34, -1.86] | -1.99 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75]\n  [R2 L19] Prolonged unemployment carries serious economic, health, and wellbeing costs. With federal support, most U.S. states now operate a Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program to h\n  R2 elements: {'preregistered RCT N = 23,549': True, 'wage +$1,153': True, '95% CI [166, 2,141]': True, 'reemployment +1.47 pp': True, 'weeks on UI -1.99': True, 'annualised wages': True}\n  [R3 L77] Figure 2 reports the preferred clean-onset event-study path and overlays the event-time support behind each coefficient. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and imprecise, and the stacked joint pre-t\n  [R3 L91] Clean-onset threshold-2 | 774 | 0.241 | 0.472 | 0.037 | 0.034\n  R3 stacked coefficients by tau: {0: 0.005, 1: 0.012, 2: 0.018, 4: 0.037} | Table 3 preferred tau=4,5: 0.037 0.034\n  R3 elements: {'3.4-3.7% jump in event year (tau=0 coef >= 0.034)': False, 'no further appreciation after event year': False, '3.4-3.7% magnitude exists somewhere (tau=4/5)': True}\n  [R4 L50] Employment elasticity w.r.t MW | -0.388\n  [R4 L52] | (0.132)\n  [R4 L54] Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage | -0.732\n  [R4 L56] | (0.091)\n  [R4 L46] Affected employment | -0.268\n  [R4 L48] | (0.091)\n  [R4 L42] Affected wages | 0.366\n  [R4 L44] | (0.171)\n  R4 elements: {'MW elasticity -0.388': True, 'SE 0.132': True, 'own-wage elasticity -0.732': True, 'SE 0.091': True, \"Japan's spot labour market\": True}; arithmetic check affected employment/affected wages = -0.7322\n  [R5 L49] Treatment | -0.0911 | -0.0908 | -0.0961 | -0.0962\n  [R5 L51] | (0.0113) | (0.0113) | (0.0126) | (0.0129)\n  [R5 L83] % Change | -0.3490 | -0.3478 | -0.3681 | -0.3685\n  [R5 L87] Mean Dep. Var. | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261\n  [R5 L28] I divide the estimate of beta by the mean of the dependent variable: -0.0855/0.455=-0.1879 ). This means that for over 100 newborns who would have died in the absence of the policy, approximately 18 a\n  R5 elements: {'-0.0962': True, 'SE 0.0129': True, 'preferred specification = col (4)': True, '36.85% relative to mean': True, 'infant death or stillbirth': True}; arithmetic -0.0962/0.261 = -0.3686\nunverifiable_references: ['R3'] | n_verified: 4","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"97623a11-5d70-4342-9658-6197273ee456","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}58{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","hash":"16605f0ea7cb1b015820f8ede0726d39c8bd9294ab25ed6e2396bb8286d7cc9c","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_014L21Fjv7yBCJpzzxboYwZG","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/analysis.py <<'EOF'\n\"\"\"F4-conf-04: verify five references against source extracts. Reads data/ only; writes out/results.json.\nNo randomness (random_seed = null).\"\"\"\nimport json, os, re, unicodedata\n\nROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))\nD = os.path.join(ROOT, \"data\")\nOUT = os.path.join(ROOT, \"out\")\n\ndef wc_l(path):\n    with open(path, \"rb\") as f:\n        return f.read().count(b\"\\n\")\n\nrefs = json.load(open(os.path.join(D, \"reference_list.json\"), encoding=\"utf-8\"))\nn_input_rows = {\"README.md\": wc_l(os.path.join(D, \"README.md\")), \"reference_list.json\": len(refs)}\nsrc = {}\nfor r in refs:\n    p = os.path.join(D, r[\"source_file\"])\n    src[r[\"id\"]] = open(p, encoding=\"utf-8\").read().splitlines()\n    n_input_rows[os.path.basename(p)] = wc_l(p)\n\ndef norm(s):\n    s = unicodedata.normalize(\"NFKD\", s)\n    s = \"\".join(c for c in s if not unicodedata.combining(c)).lower().replace(\"&\", \"and\")\n    return re.sub(r\"[^a-z0-9]+\", \" \", s).strip()\n\ndef header(lines, key):\n    for ln in lines:\n        if ln.startswith(key + \":\"):\n            return ln[len(key) + 1:].strip()\n    raise KeyError(key)\n\ndef find_line(lines, pattern):\n    \"\"\"Return (lineno, line) of first line matching regex pattern; raises if absent.\"\"\"\n    for i, ln in enumerate(lines, 1):\n        if re.search(pattern, ln):\n            return i, ln\n    raise ValueError(\"pattern not found: \" + pattern)\n\ndef show(rid, lines, pattern, nxt=0):\n    i, ln = find_line(lines, pattern)\n    print(f\"  [{rid} L{i}] {ln.strip()[:200]}\")\n    out = [ln]\n    for k in range(1, nxt + 1):\n        # skip blank lines to fetch the following non-empty line (SE row)\n        j = i\n        while True:\n            j += 1\n            if lines[j - 1].strip():\n                break\n        print(f\"  [{rid} L{j}] {lines[j-1].strip()[:200]}\")\n        out.append(lines[j - 1])\n    return out\n\ndef cells(line):\n    return [c.strip() for c in line.split(\"|\")]\n\nchecks, baseline = {}, []\nfor r in refs:\n    rid, L = r[\"id\"], src[r[\"id\"]]\n    print(f\"== {rid}: {r['source_file']}\")\n    title = header(L, \"Title\"); bib = header(L, \"Bibliographic record\")\n    print(\"  Title:\", title); print(\"  Bibliographic record:\", bib)\n    # body title line must agree with header title\n    body_title = [ln[2:].strip() for ln in L if ln.startswith(\"# \")][0]\n    assert norm(body_title) == norm(title), rid\n    # entry title = text between \"(YYYY). \" and \". arXiv:\"\n    m = re.match(r\"^(.*?)\\((\\d{4})\\)\\.\\s+(.*)\\.\\s+arXiv:(\\d{4}\\.\\d{5})\\.?$\", r[\"entry\"])\n    entry_year, entry_title, entry_arxiv = int(m.group(2)), m.group(3), m.group(4)\n    assert entry_arxiv in bib, rid\n    years = sorted({int(y) for y in re.findall(r\"submitted \\d{1,2} \\w{3} (\\d{4})\", bib)})\n    title_ok = norm(entry_title) == norm(title)\n    year_ok = entry_year in years  # years = first submission year and reproduced-version year (and any intermediate)\n    print(f\"  entry title match={title_ok}; entry year {entry_year} vs submission years {years} -> {year_ok}\")\n    checks[rid] = {\"title_matches\": title_ok, \"year_matches\": year_ok}\n    if not (title_ok and year_ok):\n        baseline.append(rid)\n\n# ---------------- finding checks (element by element) ----------------\nfs = {}\n# R1: Table 6, 5 km column\nL = src[\"R1\"]\natt, se = show(\"R1\", L, r\"^ATT \\| -0\\.399\", 1)\npc = show(\"R1\", L, r\"^% change \\| -32\\.9%\")[0]\nshow(\"R1\", L, r\"statistically significant at the 5% level\")\nshow(\"R1\", L, r\"staggered introduction of DCRs\")\na5, s5, p5 = cells(att)[3], cells(se)[3], cells(pc)[3]\ne = {\"ATT -0.431\": a5.startswith(\"-0.431\"),\n     \"SE 0.210\": s5 == \"(0.210)\",\n     \"5% significance (** marker)\": a5.endswith(\"**\") and not a5.endswith(\"***\"),\n     \"roughly 35%\": p5 == \"-35.0%\",\n     \"within 5 km\": \"within 5 km of a facility\" in \"\\n\".join(L),\n     \"staggered DiD on Swiss hospital records\": bool(re.search(r\"staggered introduction of DCRs across Swiss cities.*hospital records and a difference-in-differences\", \"\\n\".join(L)))}\nprint(\"  R1 elements:\", e)\nfs[\"R1\"] = (all(e.values()), \"arxiv-2609.27732v1 | Table 6, row ATT / % change, column 5 km\",\n            \"Table 6 (5 km) prints ATT -0.431** with SE (0.210) and -35.0%, and the abstract states a staggered DiD on Swiss hospital records, so every element is supported (Table A19 prints SE 0.218 for the same specification, recorded as a data issue).\")\n\n# R2: Table 2, Average treatment effect column\nL = src[\"R2\"]; T = \"\\n\".join(L)\nw = cells(show(\"R2\", L, r\"^Wage \\| \\$33,073\")[0])[4]\nre_ = cells(show(\"R2\", L, r\"^Reemployment \\| 75\\.2%\")[0])[4]\nui = cells(show(\"R2\", L, r\"^Weeks on UI \\| 15\\.2\")[0])[4]\nshow(\"R2\", L, r\"N = 23,549\")\ne = {\"preregistered RCT N = 23,549\": \"large (N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial\" in T,\n     \"wage +$1,153\": w.startswith(\"$1,153\"), \"95% CI [166, 2,141]\": \"95% CI: [166, 2,141]\" in w,\n     \"reemployment +1.47 pp\": re_.startswith(\"1.47 pp\"), \"weeks on UI -1.99\": ui.startswith(\"-1.99 weeks\"),\n     \"annualised wages\": \"$1,153 higher annually\" in T}\nprint(\"  R2 elements:\", e)\nfs[\"R2\"] = (all(e.values()), \"arxiv-2606.14621v1 | Table 2, column 'Average treatment effect estimate', rows Wage / Reemployment / Weeks on UI\",\n            \"Table 2's ATE column prints $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), 1.47 pp and -1.99 weeks, and the abstract gives the preregistered RCT with N = 23,549.\")\n\n# R3: timing claim vs Section 3.2 coefficients\nL = src[\"R3\"]; T = \"\\n\".join(L)\nline = show(\"R3\", L, r\"stacked coefficient is 0\\.005 at\")[0]\nrow = cells(show(\"R3\", L, r\"^Clean-onset threshold-2 \\|\")[0])\ncoef = {int(k): float(v) for v, k in re.findall(r\"(\\d\\.\\d{3}) at \\\\tau=(\\d)\", line)}\nprint(\"  R3 stacked coefficients by tau:\", coef, \"| Table 3 preferred tau=4,5:\", row[4], row[5])\ne = {\"3.4-3.7% jump in event year (tau=0 coef >= 0.034)\": coef[0] >= 0.034,\n     \"no further appreciation after event year\": max(coef.values()) <= coef[0],\n     \"3.4-3.7% magnitude exists somewhere (tau=4/5)\": float(row[4]) == 0.037 and float(row[5]) == 0.034}\nprint(\"  R3 elements:\", e)\nfs[\"R3\"] = (e[\"3.4-3.7% jump in event year (tau=0 coef >= 0.034)\"] and e[\"no further appreciation after event year\"],\n            \"arxiv-2603.03260v2 | Section 3.2 'Headline dynamic pattern' (stacked coefficients by tau) and Table 3, row Clean-onset threshold-2, columns tau=4 / tau=5\",\n            \"The 3.4-3.7% magnitude is reached only at tau=4-5 (0.037, 0.034) while the event-year coefficient is 0.005, so the claimed immediate jump with no later appreciation contradicts the source; title and year (2024 vs 2026) also disagree.\")\n\n# R4: Appendix A.1 Table 2\nL = src[\"R4\"]; T = \"\\n\".join(L)\nem = show(\"R4\", L, r\"^Employment elasticity w\\.r\\.t MW\", 1)\now = show(\"R4\", L, r\"^Emp\\. elasticity w\\.r\\.t affected wage\", 1)\nae = show(\"R4\", L, r\"^Affected employment\", 1); aw = show(\"R4\", L, r\"^Affected wages\", 1)\ne = {\"MW elasticity -0.388\": cells(em[0])[1] == \"-0.388\", \"SE 0.132\": cells(em[1])[1] == \"(0.132)\",\n     \"own-wage elasticity -0.732\": cells(ow[0])[1] == \"-0.732\", \"SE 0.091\": cells(ow[1])[1] == \"(0.091)\",\n     \"Japan's spot labour market\": \"Japan’s spot labor market\" in T}\nratio = float(cells(ae[0])[1]) / float(cells(aw[0])[1])\nprint(f\"  R4 elements: {e}; arithmetic check affected employment/affected wages = {ratio:.4f}\")\nfs[\"R4\"] = (all(e.values()), \"arxiv-2505.04555v3 | Appendix A.1 Table 2, rows 'Employment elasticity w.r.t MW' and 'Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage'\",\n            \"Table 2 prints -0.388 (0.132) and -0.732 (0.091) and the abstract places the study in Japan's spot labor market; the 0.091 SE duplicates the 'Affected employment' SE, recorded as a data issue.\")\n\n# R5: Table 3 column (4)\nL = src[\"R5\"]; T = \"\\n\".join(L)\ntr = show(\"R5\", L, r\"^Treatment \\| -0\\.0911\", 1)\npch = cells(show(\"R5\", L, r\"^% Change \\|\")[0]); mdv = cells(show(\"R5\", L, r\"^Mean Dep\\. Var\\. \\|\")[0])\nshow(\"R5\", L, r\"most preferred specification \\(Column \\(4\\)\\)\")\narith = float(cells(tr[0])[4]) / float(mdv[4])\ne = {\"-0.0962\": cells(tr[0])[4] == \"-0.0962\", \"SE 0.0129\": cells(tr[1])[4] == \"(0.0129)\",\n     \"preferred specification = col (4)\": \"most preferred specification (Column (4))\" in T,\n     \"36.85% relative to mean\": pch[4] == \"-0.3685\" and \"percentage change of 36.85 percent\" in T,\n     \"infant death or stillbirth\": \"Probability of Infant death or stillbirth\" in T}\nprint(f\"  R5 elements: {e}; arithmetic -0.0962/0.261 = {arith:.4f}\")\nfs[\"R5\"] = (all(e.values()), \"arxiv-2510.03658v1 | Table 3, row Treatment and row % Change, column (4); Section 4.1\",\n            \"Table 3 column (4), named the preferred specification in Section 4.1, prints -0.0962 (0.0129) and % Change -0.3685, matching the 36.85% stated in the text.\")\n\nfor rid, (ok, loc, note) in fs.items():\n    checks[rid].update({\"finding_supported\": bool(ok), \"locator\": loc})\n    c = checks[rid]\n    if not (c[\"title_matches\"] and c[\"year_matches\"]) and rid == \"R3\":\n        pass\n    checks[rid][\"note\"] = note\nunver = [rid for rid in sorted(checks) if not all(checks[rid][k] for k in (\"title_matches\", \"year_matches\", \"finding_supported\"))]\n\ndata_issues = [\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1: Table 6 prints SE (0.210) for the 5 km ATT -0.431 while Table A19 (CS-DR column, same 5 km specification) prints (0.218); Table 6 gives 608 control regions, the A19 note says 640.\",\n     \"handling\": \"R1's cited SE 0.210 matches the main-results Table 6, which is used as locator; the 5% significance claim holds under either SE (** marker in both tables). Recorded, not treated as a failure.\"},\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1: abstract says fatal outcomes fall by 35%, Section 6.1 says about 30% (Table 7 5 km: -0.354).\",\n     \"handling\": \"Not relevant to R1's cited finding; recorded only.\"},\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2505.04555v3: SE of the own-wage elasticity (0.091) is identical to the SE of 'Affected employment' (0.091), despite the elasticity being the ratio -0.268/0.366; note says 'about 4%' MW increase vs 0.047 in the table.\",\n     \"handling\": \"R4's cited values are printed verbatim in Table 2, so the finding check passes; the possibly duplicated SE is flagged as an open issue.\"},\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2510.03658v1: Table 3 '% Change' col (4) is -0.3685 while -0.0962/0.261 = -0.3686; the abstract's headline (0.0855, 18.79%) refers to a different outcome (Table 2, not in extract).\",\n     \"handling\": \"Rounding difference ignored (text explicitly states 36.85%); abstract figures not used for R5.\"},\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2603.03260v2: Table 3 header row garbled in the HTML rendering.\",\n     \"handling\": \"Used the extract editor's column names (tau=4, tau=5 coefficients in the last two columns).\"},\n    {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2606.14621v1: Tables 2-3 re-set by the extract editor; 'p ¡ 0.001' glyph defect in Section 3 text.\",\n     \"handling\": \"Used the re-set tables as documented; glyph defect does not affect any checked value.\"},\n]\n\nresults = {\n    \"reference_checks\": checks,\n    \"unverifiable_references\": unver,\n    \"n_verified\": len(checks) - len(unver),\n    \"task_id\": \"F4-conf-04\",\n    \"feasibility\": \"complete\",\n    \"feasibility_reason\": None,\n    \"data_issues\": data_issues,\n    \"n_input_rows\": n_input_rows,\n    \"n_analysed\": len(checks),\n    \"random_seed\": None,\n    \"baseline_unverifiable_title_year_only\": baseline,\n    \"baseline_n_verified_title_year_only\": len(checks) - len(baseline),\n}\nos.makedirs(OUT, exist_ok=True)\nwith open(os.path.join(OUT, \"results.json\"), \"w\", encoding=\"utf-8\") as f:\n    json.dump(results, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False)\nprint(\"unverifiable_references:\", unver, \"| n_verified:\", results[\"n_verified\"])\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py","description":"Write and run the analysis 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out && ~/wp29/venv/bin/python - <<'EOF'\ns=open('analysis.py').read()\ns=s.replace(r'''re.findall(r\"(\\d\\.\\d{3}) at \\\\tau=(\\d)\", line)''', r'''re.findall(r\"(\\d\\.\\d{3}) (?:at|by) \\\\tau=(\\d)\", line)''')\ns=s.replace('''    c = checks[rid]\n    if not (c[\"title_matches\"] and c[\"year_matches\"]) and rid == \"R3\":\n        pass\n''','')\nopen('analysis.py','w').write(s)\nEOF\ncd .. && ~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py | grep -E \"R3 stacked|unverif\" && cp out/results.json /tmp/r1.json && rm out/results.json && ~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py >/dev/null && cmp out/results.json /tmp/r1.json && echo IDENTICAL","description":"Fix regex, rerun, check 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 R3 stacked coefficients by tau: {0: 0.005, 1: 0.012, 2: 0.018, 4: 0.037, 5: 0.034} | Table 3 preferred tau=4,5: 0.037 0.034\nunverifiable_references: ['R3'] | n_verified: 4\nIDENTICAL","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"800f3bb2-bd04-4325-b43f-5872b8500eb6","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:15:36.893Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"  R3 stacked coefficients by tau: {0: 0.005, 1: 0.012, 2: 0.018, 4: 0.037, 5: 0.034} | Table 3 preferred tau=4,5: 0.037 0.034\nunverifiable_references: ['R3'] | n_verified: 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> out/state/checks.md <<'EOF'\n# Verification checks (P4)\n| # | check | outcome |\n|---|---|---|\n| 1 | Input SHA-256 equal to data/README.md and bundle.json | pass (all 7 files) |\n| 2 | Clean re-run (results.json deleted, regenerated) byte-identical | pass (cmp identical) |\n| 3 | Body title line == header Title for every extract (assert in script) | pass |\n| 4 | Entry arXiv number appears in Bibliographic record (assert) | pass (5/5) |\n| 5 | unverifiable_references == ids failing >=1 check; n_verified = 5 - len(unverifiable) = 4 | pass |\n| 6 | n_analysed (5) = n_raw (5) - excluded (0) per exclusions.csv | pass |\n| 7 | n_input_rows equals `wc -l` (README 17, sources 134/58/107/66/91) and 5 JSON items | pass |\n| 8 | Arithmetic: R1 exp(-0.431)-1 = -35.0% consistent with printed % change; R4 -0.268/0.366 = -0.7322 ≈ -0.732; R5 -0.0962/0.261 = -0.3686 vs printed -0.3685 (rounding) | pass (rounding noted) |\n| 9 | Baseline (title/year only) flags R3 only; full check also flags only 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P4 running.\" >> out/state/log.md\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python ~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py .","description":"Record checks, phases, run gate"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":648,"cache_read_input_tokens":44180,"output_tokens":1168,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":0},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":648},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXrQbwkS8zrjPZojaCxs","requestRef":"ab80b6ee-325f-4bf4-b548-7ef8f89c706f","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"44c198e4-5c6f-4ce5-9068-271c89e9483b","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:15:47.692Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}69{"parentUuid":"44c198e4-5c6f-4ce5-9068-271c89e9483b","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f9f57fbc-a9e1-4f82-bec9-e476caed3cfb","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"type":"tool_result","content":"Exit code 1\n-0.35014108922525045\nPGAR GATE pgar_gate/1.0 — FAILED (10 of 24 checks failed)\n  [ok] file:out/results.json: present\n  [FAIL] file:out/report.md: missing or empty\n  [ok] file:out/analysis.py: present\n  [FAIL] file:out/claims.json: missing or empty\n  [ok] results_json: parsed\n  [ok] key:reference_checks: ok\n  [ok] key:unverifiable_references: ok\n  [ok] key:n_verified: ok\n  [ok] key:task_id: ok\n  [ok] key:feasibility: ok\n  [ok] key:feasibility_reason: ok\n  [ok] key:data_issues: ok\n  [ok] key:n_input_rows: ok\n  [ok] key:n_analysed: ok\n  [ok] key:random_seed: ok\n  [FAIL] section:Question: heading not found\n  [FAIL] section:Data and exclusions: heading not found\n  [FAIL] section:Method: heading not found\n  [FAIL] section:Results: heading not found\n  [FAIL] section:Uncertainty: heading not found\n  [FAIL] section:Limitations and open issues: heading not found\n  [FAIL] claims_json: out/claims.json missing\n  [FAIL] phase_ledger: phases not terminal: ['P4', 'P5']\n  [ok] reproducibility: regenerated in 0.0s; identical within tolerance\nreceipt: /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256/out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T051547.821295Z.json","is_error":true,"tool_use_id":"toolu_011PmFL3CmHqXyB5NUedkina"}]},"uuid":"cdafb6ee-bb07-461e-a176-2be1819049b2","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:15:47.826Z","toolUseResult":"Error: Exit code 1\n-0.35014108922525045\nPGAR GATE pgar_gate/1.0 — FAILED (10 of 24 checks failed)\n  [ok] file:out/results.json: present\n  [FAIL] file:out/report.md: missing or empty\n  [ok] file:out/analysis.py: present\n  [FAIL] file:out/claims.json: missing or empty\n  [ok] results_json: parsed\n  [ok] key:reference_checks: ok\n  [ok] key:unverifiable_references: ok\n  [ok] key:n_verified: ok\n  [ok] key:task_id: ok\n  [ok] key:feasibility: ok\n  [ok] key:feasibility_reason: ok\n  [ok] key:data_issues: ok\n  [ok] key:n_input_rows: ok\n  [ok] key:n_analysed: ok\n  [ok] key:random_seed: ok\n  [FAIL] section:Question: heading not found\n  [FAIL] section:Data and exclusions: heading not found\n  [FAIL] section:Method: heading not found\n  [FAIL] section:Results: heading not found\n  [FAIL] section:Uncertainty: heading not found\n  [FAIL] section:Limitations and open issues: heading not found\n  [FAIL] claims_json: out/claims.json missing\n  [FAIL] phase_ledger: phases not terminal: ['P4', 'P5']\n  [ok] reproducibility: regenerated in 0.0s; identical within tolerance\nreceipt: /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256/out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T051547.821295Z.json","sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"44c198e4-5c6f-4ce5-9068-271c89e9483b","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}70{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","hash":"aa853b0436dfb95ee62215de0bb76716d19337ce7be340082130f96035ebd34e","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Now checks, phases, and the gate (P4)."},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_011PmFL3CmHqXyB5NUedkina","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/state/checks.md <<'EOF'\n# Verification checks (P4)\n| # | check | outcome |\n|---|---|---|\n| 1 | Input SHA-256 equal to data/README.md and bundle.json | pass (all 7 files) |\n| 2 | Clean re-run (results.json deleted, regenerated) byte-identical | pass (cmp identical) |\n| 3 | Body title line == header Title for every extract (assert in script) | pass |\n| 4 | Entry arXiv number appears in Bibliographic record (assert) | pass (5/5) |\n| 5 | unverifiable_references == ids failing >=1 check; n_verified = 5 - len(unverifiable) = 4 | pass |\n| 6 | n_analysed (5) = n_raw (5) - excluded (0) per exclusions.csv | pass |\n| 7 | n_input_rows equals `wc -l` (README 17, sources 134/58/107/66/91) and 5 JSON items | pass |\n| 8 | Arithmetic: R1 exp(-0.431)-1 = -35.0% consistent with printed % change; R4 -0.268/0.366 = -0.7322 ≈ -0.732; R5 -0.0962/0.261 = -0.3686 vs printed -0.3685 (rounding) | pass (rounding noted) |\n| 9 | Baseline (title/year only) flags R3 only; full check also flags only R3 (finding fails too) | consistent |\n| 10 | Year rule: R4 entry 2025 = v1 year (2025) though extract is v3 (2026) -> consistent per rule | pass |\n| 11 | No CI/SE keys in results to test positivity (task has none) | n/a |\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python -c \"import math;print(math.exp(-0.431)-1)\"\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python - <<'EOF'\nimport json\nph={f\"P{i}\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"} for i in range(6)}\nph[\"P0\"][\"checks\"]=[\"TASK.md read; contract.md written\"]\nph[\"P1\"][\"checks\"]=[\"SHA-256 of all inputs match README/bundle\",\"line counts recorded\",\"anomalies documented in data_audit.md\",\"exclusions.csv written (0 removed)\"]\nph[\"P2\"][\"checks\"]=[\"baseline title/year-only check computed: baseline_unverifiable_title_year_only=['R3']\"]\nph[\"P3\"][\"checks\"]=[\"analysis.py runs, reads data/ only, prints relied-on lines/cells, writes results.json\"]\nph[\"P4\"][\"status\"]=\"running\"; ph[\"P4\"][\"checks\"]=[\"clean re-run byte-identical (cmp)\",\"internal consistency checks in checks.md all pass\"]\nph[\"P5\"][\"status\"]=\"pending\"\njson.dump(ph,open(\"out/state/phases.json\",\"w\"),indent=2)\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P1-P3 passed; results: unverifiable=[R3], n_verified=4. P4 running.\" >> out/state/log.md\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python ~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py .","description":"Record checks, phases, run gate"}}]}}71{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","id":"87852241-36f9-4c53-b730-3b409134e5ad","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:15:47.828Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"eaffde6ae9e2e91192f203c772f0301fe14f7474cb0f6724b667c381c9ebd143","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"ab80b6ee-325f-4bf4-b548-7ef8f89c706f","keep":18,"tail":["aa853b0436dfb95ee62215de0bb76716d19337ce7be340082130f96035ebd34e","f79bca2ad42cb139f2cf9b3e749f772aadd7c3a755721e3f76b52836dc564654"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",19,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"7ba955cacdc973dfadf112dc944acea7bfb086d45c283b52466bdab7881ed599"}72{"parentUuid":"cdafb6ee-bb07-461e-a176-2be1819049b2","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrRQxz9gcHRs6NPkmrj","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":1733,"cache_read_input_tokens":44828,"output_tokens":2967,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":36},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":1733},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"thinkingDurationMs":606,"thinkingDisplay":"updates","apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXrRQgNHtRQzLygNiDCi","requestRef":"87852241-36f9-4c53-b730-3b409134e5ad","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"116d5df4-3789-450c-a7ef-6840cc9522c9","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:15:50.226Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}73{"parentUuid":"116d5df4-3789-450c-a7ef-6840cc9522c9","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrRQxz9gcHRs6NPkmrj","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Remaining failures are P5 deliverables only; contract keys and reproducibility pass. Recording P4 and writing the report/claims."}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":1733,"cache_read_input_tokens":44828,"output_tokens":2967,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":36},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":1733},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXrRQgNHtRQzLygNiDCi","requestRef":"87852241-36f9-4c53-b730-3b409134e5ad","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"020b4185-085e-44b4-900b-9e137b0f1961","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:15:50.228Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}74{"parentUuid":"020b4185-085e-44b4-900b-9e137b0f1961","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrRQxz9gcHRs6NPkmrj","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_014TQdrpAmJANiAvRvGMPAWw","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/report.md <<'EOF'\n# Reference verification report — F4-conf-04\n\n## Question\nFor each of five references (R1–R5) in a draft manuscript, does the provided source extract confirm (i) the title, (ii) the year (first-submission year or year of the reproduced version) and (iii) the attributed finding (\"cited_for\")? A reference that fails any check is unverifiable.\n\n## Data and exclusions\nInputs: `data/reference_list.json` (5 items) and five arXiv extracts; line counts are in `n_input_rows` (README.md 17, arxiv-2609.27732v1 134, arxiv-2606.14621v1 58, arxiv-2603.03260v2 107, arxiv-2505.04555v3 66, arxiv-2510.03658v1 91 lines). All SHA-256 values match `data/README.md` (see `out/state/data_audit.md`). No exclusions were applied (`out/exclusions.csv`: 5 in, 5 analysed; `n_analysed` = 5). The only evidence used is the extracts, as the task requires.\n\n## Method\n`out/analysis.py` reads each extract's header (`Title`, `Bibliographic record`) and checks that the body title line matches it. It then splits each entry into title, year and arXiv number.\n- **Title:** compared after normalisation (case, punctuation, diacritics, \"&\"/\"and\").\n- **Year:** must equal one of the submission years in the Bibliographic record.\n- **Finding:** each element of `cited_for` is checked against the specific table cell or sentence. The script prints these, along with arithmetic checks where relevant.\n\nBaseline (P2): a check of title and year only (`baseline_unverifiable_title_year_only`, `baseline_n_verified_title_year_only`). No randomness is involved (`random_seed` = null).\n\n## Results\n- `unverifiable_references` = [\"R3\"]; `n_verified` = 4.\n- **R1** (`reference_checks.R1`): passes all three checks. Table 6, 5 km column: ATT -0.431** (0.210), -35.0%. The abstract describes a staggered DiD on Swiss hospital records.\n- **R2** (`reference_checks.R2`): passes all three. Table 2, ATE column: $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), 1.47 pp, -1.99 weeks. The abstract gives a preregistered RCT with N = 23,549.\n- **R3** (`reference_checks.R3`): **fails all three checks.**\n  - Title: the entry title \"Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change: Commercial Entry and House Prices in Greater London\" differs from the document title \"Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\".\n  - Year: the entry says 2024; the record shows submissions in 2026 only (v1 3 Mar 2026, v2 2 Apr 2026).\n  - Finding: the stacked coefficient is 0.005 at the event year and rises to 0.037/0.034 at τ=4/5 (Section 3.2; Table 3, Clean-onset row). The source therefore describes a gradual rise, not a 3.4–3.7% jump in the entry year with no further appreciation.\n- **R4** (`reference_checks.R4`): passes all three. The year 2025 equals the v1 year. Appendix A.1 Table 2: -0.388 (0.132) and -0.732 (0.091).\n- **R5** (`reference_checks.R5`): passes all three. Table 3 column (4), the preferred specification: -0.0962 (0.0129), % Change -0.3685, which matches the 36.85% stated in Section 4.1.\n- Baseline comparison: the title/year-only check also flags only R3 (`baseline_unverifiable_title_year_only`). The finding check adds no further flags.\n\n## Uncertainty\nThe checks are deterministic, so there is no sampling uncertainty. The uncertainty that remains is about judgement:\n- **R1:** the source gives two different standard errors for the same specification, (0.210) in Table 6 and (0.218) in Table A19 (`data_issues`). The cited 0.210 matches the main-results table, and 5% significance holds under both. I treated it as supported.\n- **R4:** the 0.091 SE of the own-wage elasticity is identical to the SE of \"Affected employment\". It may be a duplication in the source, but the cited values are printed verbatim.\n- **R5:** -0.0962/0.261 = -0.3686, while the table prints -0.3685. This is a rounding difference.\n\nNone of these changes the set of unverifiable references.\n\n## Limitations and open issues\n- The extracts are partial. Findings are judged only against what the extracts contain.\n- Source inconsistencies are listed in `data_issues` and left unresolved:\n  - R1 source: SE 0.210 vs 0.218, and 608 vs 640 control regions; the abstract says fatal outcomes fall 35%, Section 6.1 says about 30%.\n  - R4 source: the duplicated SE; the note says \"about 4%\" while the table gives 0.047.\n  - R5 source: the abstract's 0.0855/18.79% refers to a different table.\n- Under a stricter reading, the R1 SE discrepancy or the R4 duplicated SE could be treated as grounds to flag the reference. I did not, because the cited values appear verbatim in the extracts.\n- `feasibility` = \"complete\".\nEOF\ncat > out/claims.json <<'EOF'\n[\n {\"id\":\"C1\",\"text\":\"Exactly one reference, R3, is unverifiable; four references pass all three checks.\",\"results_keys\":[\"unverifiable_references\",\"n_verified\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Depends on treating cited values printed verbatim (R1 SE 0.210, R4 SE 0.091) as supported despite internal source inconsistencies.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C2\",\"text\":\"R3 fails the title, year and finding checks: different title, year 2024 vs 2026 submissions, and the source shows a gradual rise (0.005 at event year to 0.037/0.034 at tau=4/5) rather than an immediate 3.4-3.7% jump.\",\"results_keys\":[\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Judged against the extract only.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C3\",\"text\":\"R1, R2, R4 and R5 have matching titles and years and their attributed findings are stated in the cited tables.\",\"results_keys\":[\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"R4 year 2025 accepted as the v1 year although the extract is v3 (2026), per the task's year rule.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C4\",\"text\":\"The R1 source reports two different SEs (0.210 Table 6, 0.218 Table A19) for the same 5 km specification; this does not change the 5% significance conclusion.\",\"results_keys\":[\"data_issues\",\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Recorded as a data issue, not a verification failure.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C5\",\"text\":\"A title/year-only baseline flags the same set (R3) as the full check.\",\"results_keys\":[\"baseline_unverifiable_title_year_only\",\"baseline_n_verified_title_year_only\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"\"}\n]\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python - <<'EOF'\nimport json,glob\nph=json.load(open(\"out/state/phases.json\"))\nr=sorted(glob.glob(\"out/state/gate_receipts/*.json\"))\nph[\"P4\"][\"status\"]=\"passed\"; ph[\"P4\"][\"checks\"].append(f\"gate run {r[-1]}: contract keys + reproducibility ok; failures only for P5 deliverables (report/claims) and non-terminal phases, addressed in P5\")\nph[\"P5\"][\"status\"]=\"passed\"; ph[\"P5\"][\"checks\"]=[\"report.md with 6 sections written\",\"claims.json written (5 claims, all keys exist)\",\"final gate run (receipt appended below)\"]\njson.dump(ph,open(\"out/state/phases.json\",\"w\"),indent=2)\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P4 passed (gate run 1; only P5 items failing). P5: report & claims written, final gate.\" >> out/state/log.md\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python ~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py .","description":"Write report, claims, update phases, run gate"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":1733,"cache_read_input_tokens":44828,"output_tokens":2967,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":36},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":1733},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":2,"requestId":"req_011CgXrRQgNHtRQzLygNiDCi","requestRef":"87852241-36f9-4c53-b730-3b409134e5ad","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"ba701a97-ff2e-4d74-bad1-313638632e0c","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:16:13.211Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}75{"type":"last-prompt","lastPrompt":"Begin","leafUuid":"ba701a97-ff2e-4d74-bad1-313638632e0c","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34"}76{"type":"atis-latch","atis":"","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34"}77{"parentUuid":"ba701a97-ff2e-4d74-bad1-313638632e0c","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f9f57fbc-a9e1-4f82-bec9-e476caed3cfb","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_014TQdrpAmJANiAvRvGMPAWw","type":"tool_result","content":"PGAR GATE pgar_gate/1.0 — PASSED (0 of 24 checks failed)\n  [ok] file:out/results.json: present\n  [ok] file:out/report.md: present\n  [ok] file:out/analysis.py: present\n  [ok] file:out/claims.json: present\n  [ok] results_json: parsed\n  [ok] key:reference_checks: ok\n  [ok] key:unverifiable_references: ok\n  [ok] key:n_verified: ok\n  [ok] key:task_id: ok\n  [ok] key:feasibility: ok\n  [ok] key:feasibility_reason: ok\n  [ok] key:data_issues: ok\n  [ok] key:n_input_rows: ok\n  [ok] key:n_analysed: ok\n  [ok] key:random_seed: ok\n  [ok] section:Question: present\n  [ok] section:Data and exclusions: present\n  [ok] section:Method: present\n  [ok] section:Results: present\n  [ok] section:Uncertainty: present\n  [ok] section:Limitations and open issues: present\n  [ok] claims_json: 5 claims, all keys resolve\n  [ok] phase_ledger: consistent\n  [ok] reproducibility: regenerated in 0.0s; identical within tolerance\nreceipt: /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256/out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T051613.334580Z.json","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"aa2e62e3-f011-4709-b96a-6ff6e70ef68b","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:16:13.340Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"PGAR GATE pgar_gate/1.0 — PASSED (0 of 24 checks failed)\n  [ok] file:out/results.json: present\n  [ok] file:out/report.md: present\n  [ok] file:out/analysis.py: present\n  [ok] file:out/claims.json: present\n  [ok] results_json: parsed\n  [ok] key:reference_checks: ok\n  [ok] key:unverifiable_references: ok\n  [ok] key:n_verified: ok\n  [ok] key:task_id: ok\n  [ok] key:feasibility: ok\n  [ok] key:feasibility_reason: ok\n  [ok] key:data_issues: ok\n  [ok] key:n_input_rows: ok\n  [ok] key:n_analysed: ok\n  [ok] key:random_seed: ok\n  [ok] section:Question: present\n  [ok] section:Data and exclusions: present\n  [ok] section:Method: present\n  [ok] section:Results: present\n  [ok] section:Uncertainty: present\n  [ok] section:Limitations and open issues: present\n  [ok] claims_json: 5 claims, all keys resolve\n  [ok] phase_ledger: consistent\n  [ok] reproducibility: regenerated in 0.0s; identical within tolerance\nreceipt: /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256/out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T051613.334580Z.json","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"ba701a97-ff2e-4d74-bad1-313638632e0c","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}78{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","hash":"1d4a6e9dde492da3d1cc8e4ad37482672e1458b885e0a43bfe085959490740a0","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"text","text":"Remaining failures are P5 deliverables only; contract keys and reproducibility pass. Recording P4 and writing the report/claims."},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_014TQdrpAmJANiAvRvGMPAWw","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/report.md <<'EOF'\n# Reference verification report — F4-conf-04\n\n## Question\nFor each of five references (R1–R5) in a draft manuscript, does the provided source extract confirm (i) the title, (ii) the year (first-submission year or year of the reproduced version) and (iii) the attributed finding (\"cited_for\")? A reference that fails any check is unverifiable.\n\n## Data and exclusions\nInputs: `data/reference_list.json` (5 items) and five arXiv extracts; line counts are in `n_input_rows` (README.md 17, arxiv-2609.27732v1 134, arxiv-2606.14621v1 58, arxiv-2603.03260v2 107, arxiv-2505.04555v3 66, arxiv-2510.03658v1 91 lines). All SHA-256 values match `data/README.md` (see `out/state/data_audit.md`). No exclusions were applied (`out/exclusions.csv`: 5 in, 5 analysed; `n_analysed` = 5). The only evidence used is the extracts, as the task requires.\n\n## Method\n`out/analysis.py` reads each extract's header (`Title`, `Bibliographic record`) and checks that the body title line matches it. It then splits each entry into title, year and arXiv number.\n- **Title:** compared after normalisation (case, punctuation, diacritics, \"&\"/\"and\").\n- **Year:** must equal one of the submission years in the Bibliographic record.\n- **Finding:** each element of `cited_for` is checked against the specific table cell or sentence. The script prints these, along with arithmetic checks where relevant.\n\nBaseline (P2): a check of title and year only (`baseline_unverifiable_title_year_only`, `baseline_n_verified_title_year_only`). No randomness is involved (`random_seed` = null).\n\n## Results\n- `unverifiable_references` = [\"R3\"]; `n_verified` = 4.\n- **R1** (`reference_checks.R1`): passes all three checks. Table 6, 5 km column: ATT -0.431** (0.210), -35.0%. The abstract describes a staggered DiD on Swiss hospital records.\n- **R2** (`reference_checks.R2`): passes all three. Table 2, ATE column: $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), 1.47 pp, -1.99 weeks. The abstract gives a preregistered RCT with N = 23,549.\n- **R3** (`reference_checks.R3`): **fails all three checks.**\n  - Title: the entry title \"Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change: Commercial Entry and House Prices in Greater London\" differs from the document title \"Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\".\n  - Year: the entry says 2024; the record shows submissions in 2026 only (v1 3 Mar 2026, v2 2 Apr 2026).\n  - Finding: the stacked coefficient is 0.005 at the event year and rises to 0.037/0.034 at τ=4/5 (Section 3.2; Table 3, Clean-onset row). The source therefore describes a gradual rise, not a 3.4–3.7% jump in the entry year with no further appreciation.\n- **R4** (`reference_checks.R4`): passes all three. The year 2025 equals the v1 year. Appendix A.1 Table 2: -0.388 (0.132) and -0.732 (0.091).\n- **R5** (`reference_checks.R5`): passes all three. Table 3 column (4), the preferred specification: -0.0962 (0.0129), % Change -0.3685, which matches the 36.85% stated in Section 4.1.\n- Baseline comparison: the title/year-only check also flags only R3 (`baseline_unverifiable_title_year_only`). The finding check adds no further flags.\n\n## Uncertainty\nThe checks are deterministic, so there is no sampling uncertainty. The uncertainty that remains is about judgement:\n- **R1:** the source gives two different standard errors for the same specification, (0.210) in Table 6 and (0.218) in Table A19 (`data_issues`). The cited 0.210 matches the main-results table, and 5% significance holds under both. I treated it as supported.\n- **R4:** the 0.091 SE of the own-wage elasticity is identical to the SE of \"Affected employment\". It may be a duplication in the source, but the cited values are printed verbatim.\n- **R5:** -0.0962/0.261 = -0.3686, while the table prints -0.3685. This is a rounding difference.\n\nNone of these changes the set of unverifiable references.\n\n## Limitations and open issues\n- The extracts are partial. Findings are judged only against what the extracts contain.\n- Source inconsistencies are listed in `data_issues` and left unresolved:\n  - R1 source: SE 0.210 vs 0.218, and 608 vs 640 control regions; the abstract says fatal outcomes fall 35%, Section 6.1 says about 30%.\n  - R4 source: the duplicated SE; the note says \"about 4%\" while the table gives 0.047.\n  - R5 source: the abstract's 0.0855/18.79% refers to a different table.\n- Under a stricter reading, the R1 SE discrepancy or the R4 duplicated SE could be treated as grounds to flag the reference. I did not, because the cited values appear verbatim in the extracts.\n- `feasibility` = \"complete\".\nEOF\ncat > out/claims.json <<'EOF'\n[\n {\"id\":\"C1\",\"text\":\"Exactly one reference, R3, is unverifiable; four references pass all three checks.\",\"results_keys\":[\"unverifiable_references\",\"n_verified\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Depends on treating cited values printed verbatim (R1 SE 0.210, R4 SE 0.091) as supported despite internal source inconsistencies.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C2\",\"text\":\"R3 fails the title, year and finding checks: different title, year 2024 vs 2026 submissions, and the source shows a gradual rise (0.005 at event year to 0.037/0.034 at tau=4/5) rather than an immediate 3.4-3.7% jump.\",\"results_keys\":[\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Judged against the extract only.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C3\",\"text\":\"R1, R2, R4 and R5 have matching titles and years and their attributed findings are stated in the cited tables.\",\"results_keys\":[\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"R4 year 2025 accepted as the v1 year although the extract is v3 (2026), per the task's year rule.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C4\",\"text\":\"The R1 source reports two different SEs (0.210 Table 6, 0.218 Table A19) for the same 5 km specification; this does not change the 5% significance conclusion.\",\"results_keys\":[\"data_issues\",\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Recorded as a data issue, not a verification failure.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C5\",\"text\":\"A title/year-only baseline flags the same set (R3) as the full check.\",\"results_keys\":[\"baseline_unverifiable_title_year_only\",\"baseline_n_verified_title_year_only\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"\"}\n]\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python - <<'EOF'\nimport json,glob\nph=json.load(open(\"out/state/phases.json\"))\nr=sorted(glob.glob(\"out/state/gate_receipts/*.json\"))\nph[\"P4\"][\"status\"]=\"passed\"; ph[\"P4\"][\"checks\"].append(f\"gate run {r[-1]}: contract keys + reproducibility ok; failures only for P5 deliverables (report/claims) and non-terminal phases, addressed in P5\")\nph[\"P5\"][\"status\"]=\"passed\"; ph[\"P5\"][\"checks\"]=[\"report.md with 6 sections written\",\"claims.json written (5 claims, all keys exist)\",\"final gate run (receipt appended below)\"]\njson.dump(ph,open(\"out/state/phases.json\",\"w\"),indent=2)\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P4 passed (gate run 1; only P5 items failing). P5: report & claims written, final gate.\" >> out/state/log.md\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python ~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py .","description":"Write report, claims, update phases, run gate"}}]}}79{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","id":"97c7ebc8-9bff-419f-9829-3b89aabd259a","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:16:13.342Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"eaffde6ae9e2e91192f203c772f0301fe14f7474cb0f6724b667c381c9ebd143","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"87852241-36f9-4c53-b730-3b409134e5ad","keep":20,"tail":["1d4a6e9dde492da3d1cc8e4ad37482672e1458b885e0a43bfe085959490740a0","82b3d5ac0184ef430a74101121f6d351facfbdad70b79f54e75fa42396662cf9"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",21,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"db60588ffca9c6f0aea16d79bc10571e06cb543af73622c1fe970c42011eca79"}80{"parentUuid":"aa2e62e3-f011-4709-b96a-6ff6e70ef68b","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrTJ7nJ91x9iyVC65Sg","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01RbzwyGYETz2qoqabAXMNqc","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"~/wp29/venv/bin/python - <<'EOF'\nimport json,glob\nph=json.load(open(\"out/state/phases.json\"))\nr=sorted(glob.glob(\"out/state/gate_receipts/*.json\"))\nph[\"P5\"][\"checks\"][-1]=f\"final gate run {r[-1]}: PASSED 0/24 failed\"\njson.dump(ph,open(\"out/state/phases.json\",\"w\"),indent=2)\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P5 passed; final gate PASSED. Task complete.\" >> out/state/log.md\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python ~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py . | head -1","description":"Record final receipt and reconfirm gate"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":3453,"cache_read_input_tokens":46561,"output_tokens":309,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":0},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":3453},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXrTHpRe7FuvWfBGbq5j","requestRef":"97c7ebc8-9bff-419f-9829-3b89aabd259a","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"c4f1ac64-2579-407b-b213-3cb8a32f830e","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:16:20.675Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}81{"parentUuid":"c4f1ac64-2579-407b-b213-3cb8a32f830e","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"f9f57fbc-a9e1-4f82-bec9-e476caed3cfb","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01RbzwyGYETz2qoqabAXMNqc","type":"tool_result","content":"PGAR GATE pgar_gate/1.0 — PASSED (0 of 24 checks failed)","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"990f54d1-cf3c-4979-9d45-34e35cff2f01","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:16:20.794Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"PGAR GATE pgar_gate/1.0 — PASSED (0 of 24 checks failed)","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"c4f1ac64-2579-407b-b213-3cb8a32f830e","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}82{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","hash":"98bfd5eeb81a3bfdbdb4d29be5a22bff1ddeb901e64d2307827c16978deca7a3","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01RbzwyGYETz2qoqabAXMNqc","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"~/wp29/venv/bin/python - <<'EOF'\nimport json,glob\nph=json.load(open(\"out/state/phases.json\"))\nr=sorted(glob.glob(\"out/state/gate_receipts/*.json\"))\nph[\"P5\"][\"checks\"][-1]=f\"final gate run {r[-1]}: PASSED 0/24 failed\"\njson.dump(ph,open(\"out/state/phases.json\",\"w\"),indent=2)\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P5 passed; final gate PASSED. Task complete.\" >> out/state/log.md\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python ~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py . | head -1","description":"Record final receipt and reconfirm gate"}}]}}83{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","id":"659377ca-77ff-4efc-a7a4-c08b02723a5f","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:16:20.796Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"eaffde6ae9e2e91192f203c772f0301fe14f7474cb0f6724b667c381c9ebd143","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"97c7ebc8-9bff-419f-9829-3b89aabd259a","keep":22,"tail":["98bfd5eeb81a3bfdbdb4d29be5a22bff1ddeb901e64d2307827c16978deca7a3","aa79e1f99d60a62b0a68066a78ed1fdc532fbeae919fc7530c295ae4e5fb7254"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",23,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"90f72ac1c7e3dcb4e734b8320bb072db6fe657ae41ca42bd09aab8d02378b9b1"}84{"parentUuid":"990f54d1-cf3c-4979-9d45-34e35cff2f01","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrTqoXgQdJjreQAdPBq","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"end_turn","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":349,"cache_read_input_tokens":50014,"output_tokens":809,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":15},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":349},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"thinkingDurationMs":6332,"thinkingDisplay":"updates","apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXrTqdMhAS46HnY33koA","requestRef":"659377ca-77ff-4efc-a7a4-c08b02723a5f","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"83a6cecc-c7c8-4ba7-b64f-15fdfe017a01","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:16:29.313Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}85{"parentUuid":"83a6cecc-c7c8-4ba7-b64f-15fdfe017a01","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrTqoXgQdJjreQAdPBq","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Of the five references, only R3 can't be verified; the other four pass all three checks. The final gate run passed with 0 of 24 checks failing, and re-running `out/analysis.py` from scratch gives identical results.\n\n**R3 (Liu & Zhao) fails all three checks:**\n- **Title:** the entry's title (\"Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change…\") is a different title from the one in the extract (\"Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\").\n- **Year:** the entry says 2024, but both versions were submitted in 2026.\n- **Finding:** the manuscript claims a 3.4–3.7% jump in the year of entry with no later rise. The source shows the opposite pattern: 0.005 in the entry year, rising gradually to 0.037 and 0.034 four and five years later (Section 3.2 and Table 3).\n\n**The four that pass:**\n- **R1:** Table 6, 5 km column: −0.431, SE 0.210, significant at 5%, −35.0%.\n- **R2:** Table 2, treatment-effect column.\n- **R4:** Appendix Table 2. Its year, 2025, is accepted because it matches the first submission, even though the extract is version 3 from 2026.\n- **R5:** Table 3, column (4), which the text names as the preferred specification.\n\nSome sources contradict themselves. I recorded these in `data_issues` but didn't count them as failures, because the values the manuscript cites appear word for word in the extracts:\n- **R1 source:** the same 5 km estimate has SE 0.210 in Table 6 and 0.218 in Table A19. The 5% significance holds either way. The source also gives 608 control regions in one place and 640 in another.\n- **R4 source:** the own-wage elasticity's SE (0.091) is identical to the SE on another row, which may be a copying error in the paper.\n- **R5 source:** the paper's ratio rounds to 36.85% where I get 36.86%.\n\nA stricter reader could flag R1 or R4 on these grounds, which would change the result.\n\nFiles are in `out/`:\n- `results.json`\n- `report.md`\n- `analysis.py`\n- `claims.json`\n- `exclusions.csv` (no exclusions)\n- `state/` (contract, data audit, checks, phase ledger, log, gate receipts)"}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"end_turn","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":349,"cache_read_input_tokens":50014,"output_tokens":809,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":15},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":349},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXrTqdMhAS46HnY33koA","requestRef":"659377ca-77ff-4efc-a7a4-c08b02723a5f","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"c03a2ae4-3276-4a7e-a7bc-4adac037a8d1","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:16:29.511Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0256","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}86{"type":"last-prompt","lastPrompt":"Begin","leafUuid":"c03a2ae4-3276-4a7e-a7bc-4adac037a8d1","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34"}87{"type":"cost-state","sessionId":"106f390d-2ecf-471d-9eea-4ae73e11ef34","totalCostUSD":0.6358092000000001,"totalAPIDuration":153566,"totalAPIDurationWithoutRetries":153559,"totalToolDuration":672,"totalLinesAdded":0,"totalLinesRemoved":0,"totalDuration":154310,"startTime":1793337235229,"modelUsage":{"claude-opus-5-5":{"inputTokens":26,"outputTokens":16231,"thinkingTokens":2573,"cacheReadInputTokens":333951,"cacheCreationInputTokens":48859,"cacheCreationEphemeral5mInputTokens":48859,"cacheCreationEphemeral1hInputTokens":0,"webSearchRequests":0,"costUSD":0.6358092000000001}},"hasUnknownModelCost":false}88