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It is the complete and only authoritative description of what is required: the scientific question, the inputs under `data/`, the required output files and their exact keys, and the information-availability rules.\n- There is no network access. Use the Python interpreter `~/wp29/venv/bin/python` (numpy, pandas, scipy, statsmodels, matplotlib are installed). Standard shell tools are available. Do not try to install packages.\n- Write every deliverable under `./out/`. The required deliverables are listed in `TASK.md`; at minimum they always include `out/results.json`, `out/report.md`, and a replication entry point `out/analysis.py` that regenerates `out/results.json` from `data/` when run with `~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py` from the workspace root.\n- You are working alone and unattended; nobody will answer questions. Make reasonable, documented decisions.\n\nIntegrity rules (identical for every task):\n- Never fabricate numbers, data, results, or references. Every number in `out/results.json` and `out/report.md` must be produced by code you ran on the provided inputs.\n- Respect the information-availability rules in `TASK.md` exactly (for example, never use information that would not have been available at the stated decision time).\n- If part of the task cannot be completed as specified, say so explicitly in `out/report.md`, explain why, and still write every required file (use `null` for values you could not legitimately produce). An honest statement of a limitation is always preferred to a fabricated or guessed value.\n- Do not modify anything under `data/`.\n- When you are done, end with a brief plain-text summary of what you produced and any limitations.\n\nComplete the task described in `TASK.md` by following this research protocol. The protocol adds no scientific information to the task; it organizes how you work and what evidence you leave behind.\n\nPHASES (execute in order; a phase is eligible only when its dependencies are satisfied):\n\nP0 Scope and contract (depends on: nothing)\n- Read `TASK.md` completely. In `out/state/contract.md`, restate in your own words: the scientific question; the quantity or quantities to be estimated (the estimands) and the assumptions under which they are meaningful; every required output file and key; the information-availability rules; what would make the task impossible or the result invalid.\n- Write the initial phase ledger `out/state/phases.json`: a JSON object mapping each phase id (P0 … P5) to {\"status\": \"pending\"|\"running\"|\"passed\"|\"failed\"|\"blocked\"|\"stale\"|\"skipped_optional\", \"checks\": [], \"notes\": \"\"}. Keep it current as you work. A phase may only be set to \"passed\" when the checks listed for it in this protocol have actually been executed and their outcome recorded in \"checks\".\n\nP1 Data audit and provenance (depends on: P0)\n- Inspect every input file: compute and record its SHA-256, row and column counts, schema, units, date ranges, missing values, duplicates and anomalies in `out/state/data_audit.md`.\n- Keep an exclusion ledger in `out/exclusions.csv` (columns: step, rule, n_before, n_after, n_removed, rationale) for every filtering step you apply, so that n_raw − total removed = n_analysed.\n- Identify any input that violates the information-availability rules and decide, in writing, how you will handle it.\n\nP2 Baseline (depends on: P1)\n- Before any elaborate method, compute the simplest valid baseline that answers the question (for example a naïve or unconditional estimate), with the same evaluation rule used later. Record it in `out/results.json` under the keys the task requires, or under `baseline_*` keys when the task does not name them.\n\nP3 Method and computation (depends on: P2)\n- Implement the analysis in `out/analysis.py` so that it reads only `data/`, writes `out/results.json` deterministically (fix every random seed you use and record it), and prints nothing that contradicts the written results. Any figure or table must be generated by this script.\n\nP4 Verification (depends on: P3)\n- Re-run `out/analysis.py` from a clean state and confirm it regenerates `out/results.json` with identical values. Record the check in `out/state/phases.json` under P4.\n- Check internal consistency: identities that must hold (for example counts that must add up, standard errors that must be positive, confidence intervals that must contain their estimates, date orderings that must respect the information rules), units, and magnitudes against the baseline. Record every check and its outcome in `out/state/checks.md`. A failed check must be fixed or honestly reported, never silently ignored.\n\nP5 Reporting (depends on: P4)\n- Write `out/report.md` with the sections: Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues. Every quantitative statement must cite the key of `out/results.json` it comes from.\n- Write `out/claims.json`: a list of the central claims of your report, each as {\"id\": \"C1\", \"text\": \"...\", \"results_keys\": [\"...\"], \"status\": \"supported\"|\"unsupported\"|\"not_evaluated\", \"caveat\": \"...\"}. Do not state a claim in the report that is not in this ledger.\n- Set the final statuses in `out/state/phases.json`.\n\nSTOPPING RULES\n- Stop and declare the task complete only when every phase P0–P5 is \"passed\" with recorded checks. If a phase is \"blocked\" (missing information, impossible requirement, violated availability rule), stop, set the status, explain in `out/report.md` (section Limitations and open issues) and still write every required file with `null` for values you could not legitimately produce.\n- Do not spend effort on extensions that the task does not require.\n\nRECOVERY RULES\n- Append a short dated entry to `out/state/log.md` after each phase transition and after any important decision, so that work can be resumed by reading `out/state/`.\n- If you discover that an upstream input or decision changed after a downstream phase passed, mark the downstream phases \"stale\" and redo them; do not reuse stale results.\n- If you are interrupted and later resumed, first read `out/state/` and continue from the last consistent state; never re-run expensive steps that already have recorded, unchanged outputs.\n\nEXECUTABLE GATES (additional, mandatory)\n- A read-only gate program is provided at `~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py`. Run it from the workspace root as `~/wp29/venv/bin/python ~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py .` It checks the output contract of `TASK.md` (required files, keys, types, finite values, report sections, the claims ledger, the phase ledger, the exclusion ledger) and reproducibility (it re-runs `out/analysis.py` in a temporary copy and compares the regenerated `out/results.json` with yours). It never checks scientific correctness and it contains no reference answers.\n- You must run the gate at the end of P4 and again at the end of P5, and record each run's receipt (the gate writes `out/state/gate_receipts/<timestamp>.json`) in `out/state/phases.json`. You may not declare the task complete while the latest gate receipt reports `\"passed\": false`. Fix the reported problems and re-run the gate.\n- The controller will run the same gate after your session ends. If it fails, you will be resumed with the gate output and asked to fix the problems; each such cycle consumes your remaining budget.\n\nSEPARATE REVIEW (additional)\n- After the gate passes, a separate reviewer session that has not seen your work in progress will examine `TASK.md` and everything under `out/` and may return a list of issues (file `out/review/review.json`). You will then be resumed once to address them: fix what is justified, explain in `out/report.md` (Limitations and open issues) what you disagree with, re-run the gate, and update `out/claims.json` and `out/state/phases.json`. The reviewer has no reference answers; its role is to challenge unsupported claims, violated information rules, unverified computations, and inconsistencies between your report and your results.\n"}],"tools":[{"name":"Bash","description":"execute shell commands","input_schema":{"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","type":"object","properties":{"command":{"description":"The command to execute","type":"string"},"timeout":{"description":"Optional timeout in milliseconds (max 600000 for a foreground command)","type":"number"},"description":{"description":"Clear, concise description of what this command does in active voice. 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the user's own instructions about these lines, such as a CLAUDE.md or memory rule, take precedence over this reminder, but do not add attribution lines this reminder leaves out):\n- End git commit messages with:\nCo-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>\n- End pull request descriptions with:\n🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)\n</system-reminder>"}],"renderedRole":"user","renderedBesideToolResult":true,"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}11{"type":"tools-used","tools":["Bash"],"sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8"}12{"parentUuid":"048873be-596b-42b6-81ea-b559ccee6c46","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrZ5aPr1hLqjmH8DqUx","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":4,"cache_creation_input_tokens":2811,"cache_read_input_tokens":1504,"output_tokens":129,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":23},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":2811},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"thinkingDurationMs":547,"thinkingDisplay":"updates","apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXrZ5PEck2hri9U9dHrN","requestRef":"11c234e7-e4ac-4a3d-877a-8c20de7a1b43","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"f9903013-d902-4f08-abd7-126e4a880c20","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:17:32.652Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}13{"parentUuid":"f9903013-d902-4f08-abd7-126e4a880c20","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrZ5aPr1hLqjmH8DqUx","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_013WQ21vMr9r1YhyutBBFX7x","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat TASK.md; 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for each, the reference list gives a bibliographic entry (authors, year, title, arXiv number) and the manuscript attributes to it a specific finding (\"cited_for\"). For each reference, check against the provided source extract whether (i) the title matches the document, (ii) the year is consistent with the document's submission date(s), and (iii) the attributed finding is actually stated in, or follows arithmetically from, the extract. A reference is **unverifiable** when the source material and the entry disagree on the title or year, or when the attributed finding is not supported by the source. The estimand is the set of unverifiable references, together with a per-reference record of the three checks and a locator for each finding check.\n\n## Inputs\n- `data/reference_list.json` — five references: {\"id\", \"entry\" (bibliographic string), \"cited_for\" (the attributed finding), \"source_file\" (the extract to check against)}.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt` — arXiv:2609.27732v1, Armendariz (2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 6 (Tables 6, 7), Table A19.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt` — arXiv:2606.14621v1, Li, Pearson-Merkowitz & Yokum (2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 3 (Table 2), Table 3.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt` — arXiv:2603.03260v2, Liu & Zhao (2026; v1 March 2026, v2 April 2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 3 (Tables 2, 3), Section 5.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt` — arXiv:2505.04555v3, Kanayama, Miyaji & Otani (v1 May 2025, v3 March 2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Appendix A.1 (Table 2).\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt` — arXiv:2510.03658v1, Tossou (October 2025), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 4.1, Table 3.\n- Each extract begins with a provenance header giving the title, authors, arXiv identifier with version and submission dates (the \"Bibliographic record\" line); the body reproduces the document's own title line, abstract and the cited sections. `data/README.md` gives retrieval times, licences and SHA-256 values.\n\n## Information-availability rules\n- The extracts (header and body) are the only admissible evidence; do not use remembered content of the papers, their other versions, or external bibliographic databases.\n- Year check: an entry's year is consistent if it equals the year of the first arXiv submission or the year of the version reproduced in the extract (both given in the \"Bibliographic record\" line). Title check: minor typographic differences (capitalisation, punctuation, diacritics, \"and\" vs \"&\") are acceptable; a different title is not. Author formatting differences (initials, order within the printed order) are not grounds for flagging.\n- Finding check: every element of \"cited_for\" (magnitudes, uncertainty statements, timing, population) must be stated in or follow arithmetically from the extract.\n- A locator names the source id and the table (row/column) or section that decides the finding check.\n\n## Required outputs\n- `out/results.json` with the keys:\n\n| key | type | unit | meaning |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| `reference_checks` | object | — | {\"R1\": {\"title_matches\": true/false, \"year_matches\": true/false, \"finding_supported\": true/false, \"locator\": \"<source id | table/section>\", \"note\": \"<one sentence>\"}, …, \"R5\": {…}} |\n| `unverifiable_references` | array of strings | — | ids of the references that fail at least one check (empty list if none) |\n| `n_verified` | integer | — | number of references passing all three checks |\n| `task_id` | string | — | \"F4-conf-04\" |\n| `feasibility` | string | — | \"complete\", \"partial\" or \"infeasible\" — refers to the task as a whole |\n| `feasibility_reason` | string or null | — | explanation if not complete |\n| `data_issues` | array of {\"issue\",\"handling\"} | — | problems detected in the inputs (rendering defects, internal inconsistencies of a source, etc.) and how they were handled; empty list if none |\n| `n_input_rows` | object | lines / items | {file name: number of lines} for every file under `data/` that you read (text files: number of newline-terminated lines as reported by `wc -l`; JSON files: number of top-level items) |\n| `n_analysed` | integer or null | — | number of reported items (values, assertions, effects or references) you actually assessed |\n| `random_seed` | integer or null | — | null (no randomness is involved) |\n\n- `out/report.md` with the sections: Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues.\n- `out/analysis.py` — running `~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py` from the workspace root must regenerate `out/results.json` from `data/` only, deterministically (the script must print the header lines and table cells it relies on).\n- `out/claims.json` — a list of the central claims of the report: [{\"id\": \"C1\", \"text\": \"...\", \"results_keys\": [\"...\"], \"status\": \"supported\"|\"unsupported\"|\"not_evaluated\", \"caveat\": \"...\"}].\n\n## Constraints\n- No network access. Python: `~/wp29/venv/bin/python` (numpy, pandas, scipy, statsmodels available; the standard library is sufficient for this task). Do not modify `data/`.\n- The source extracts under `data/sources/` are the **only** admissible evidence. Do not rely on memory of the papers or on other versions of them; if a quantity is not in the extract, it is not available.\n- Report numbers exactly as printed in the source (same sign, same number of decimals); do not round or rescale printed values unless the key definition asks for a transformation.\n- This task is designed to be completed in well under 20 minutes of work.\ntotal 32\ndrwxr-xr-x 6 simon-pierreboucher staff 192 oct. 29 23:45 .\ndrwxr-xr-x 148 simon-pierreboucher staff 4736 oct. 30 01:17 ..\n-rw-r--r-- 1 simon-pierreboucher staff 1074 oct. 29 23:45 bundle.json\ndrwxr-xr-x 5 simon-pierreboucher staff 160 oct. 29 23:45 data\n-rw-r--r-- 1 simon-pierreboucher staff 1333 oct. 29 23:45 gate_spec.json\n-rw-r--r-- 1 simon-pierreboucher staff 5697 oct. 29 23:45 TASK.md\ndata:\nREADME.md\nreference_list.json\nsources\n\ndata/sources:\narxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\narxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\narxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\narxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\narxiv-2609.27732v1.txt","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"faa5ae8c-13df-4135-abc5-938bd088cca5","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:17:33.247Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"# F4-conf-04 — Verifying a reference list against the cited source material\n\n## Scientific question\nA draft manuscript cites five open-access studies; for each, the reference list gives a bibliographic entry (authors, year, title, arXiv number) and the manuscript attributes to it a specific finding (\"cited_for\"). For each reference, check against the provided source extract whether (i) the title matches the document, (ii) the year is consistent with the document's submission date(s), and (iii) the attributed finding is actually stated in, or follows arithmetically from, the extract. A reference is **unverifiable** when the source material and the entry disagree on the title or year, or when the attributed finding is not supported by the source. The estimand is the set of unverifiable references, together with a per-reference record of the three checks and a locator for each finding check.\n\n## Inputs\n- `data/reference_list.json` — five references: {\"id\", \"entry\" (bibliographic string), \"cited_for\" (the attributed finding), \"source_file\" (the extract to check against)}.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt` — arXiv:2609.27732v1, Armendariz (2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 6 (Tables 6, 7), Table A19.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt` — arXiv:2606.14621v1, Li, Pearson-Merkowitz & Yokum (2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 3 (Table 2), Table 3.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt` — arXiv:2603.03260v2, Liu & Zhao (2026; v1 March 2026, v2 April 2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 3 (Tables 2, 3), Section 5.\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt` — arXiv:2505.04555v3, Kanayama, Miyaji & Otani (v1 May 2025, v3 March 2026), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Appendix A.1 (Table 2).\n- `data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt` — arXiv:2510.03658v1, Tossou (October 2025), CC BY 4.0: abstract, Section 4.1, Table 3.\n- Each extract begins with a provenance header giving the title, authors, arXiv identifier with version and submission dates (the \"Bibliographic record\" line); the body reproduces the document's own title line, abstract and the cited sections. `data/README.md` gives retrieval times, licences and SHA-256 values.\n\n## Information-availability rules\n- The extracts (header and body) are the only admissible evidence; do not use remembered content of the papers, their other versions, or external bibliographic databases.\n- Year check: an entry's year is consistent if it equals the year of the first arXiv submission or the year of the version reproduced in the extract (both given in the \"Bibliographic record\" line). Title check: minor typographic differences (capitalisation, punctuation, diacritics, \"and\" vs \"&\") are acceptable; a different title is not. Author formatting differences (initials, order within the printed order) are not grounds for flagging.\n- Finding check: every element of \"cited_for\" (magnitudes, uncertainty statements, timing, population) must be stated in or follow arithmetically from the extract.\n- A locator names the source id and the table (row/column) or section that decides the finding check.\n\n## Required outputs\n- `out/results.json` with the keys:\n\n| key | type | unit | meaning |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| `reference_checks` | object | — | {\"R1\": {\"title_matches\": true/false, \"year_matches\": true/false, \"finding_supported\": true/false, \"locator\": \"<source id | table/section>\", \"note\": \"<one sentence>\"}, …, \"R5\": {…}} |\n| `unverifiable_references` | array of strings | — | ids of the references that fail at least one check (empty list if none) |\n| `n_verified` | integer | — | number of references passing all three checks |\n| `task_id` | string | — | \"F4-conf-04\" |\n| `feasibility` | string | — | \"complete\", \"partial\" or \"infeasible\" — refers to the task as a whole |\n| `feasibility_reason` | string or null | — | explanation if not complete |\n| `data_issues` | array of {\"issue\",\"handling\"} | — | problems detected in the inputs (rendering defects, internal inconsistencies of a source, etc.) and how they were handled; empty list if none |\n| `n_input_rows` | object | lines / items | {file name: number of lines} for every file under `data/` that you read (text files: number of newline-terminated lines as reported by `wc -l`; JSON files: number of top-level items) |\n| `n_analysed` | integer or null | — | number of reported items (values, assertions, effects or references) you actually assessed |\n| `random_seed` | integer or null | — | null (no randomness is involved) |\n\n- `out/report.md` with the sections: Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues.\n- `out/analysis.py` — running `~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py` from the workspace root must regenerate `out/results.json` from `data/` only, deterministically (the script must print the header lines and table cells it relies on).\n- `out/claims.json` — a list of the central claims of the report: [{\"id\": \"C1\", \"text\": \"...\", \"results_keys\": [\"...\"], \"status\": \"supported\"|\"unsupported\"|\"not_evaluated\", \"caveat\": \"...\"}].\n\n## Constraints\n- No network access. Python: `~/wp29/venv/bin/python` (numpy, pandas, scipy, statsmodels available; the standard library is sufficient for this task). Do not modify `data/`.\n- The source extracts under `data/sources/` are the **only** admissible evidence. Do not rely on memory of the papers or on other versions of them; if a quantity is not in the extract, it is not available.\n- Report numbers exactly as printed in the source (same sign, same number of decimals); do not round or rescale printed values unless the key definition asks for a transformation.\n- This task is designed to be completed in well under 20 minutes of work.\ntotal 32\ndrwxr-xr-x 6 simon-pierreboucher staff 192 oct. 29 23:45 .\ndrwxr-xr-x 148 simon-pierreboucher staff 4736 oct. 30 01:17 ..\n-rw-r--r-- 1 simon-pierreboucher staff 1074 oct. 29 23:45 bundle.json\ndrwxr-xr-x 5 simon-pierreboucher staff 160 oct. 29 23:45 data\n-rw-r--r-- 1 simon-pierreboucher staff 1333 oct. 29 23:45 gate_spec.json\n-rw-r--r-- 1 simon-pierreboucher staff 5697 oct. 29 23:45 TASK.md\ndata:\nREADME.md\nreference_list.json\nsources\n\ndata/sources:\narxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\narxiv-2510.03658v1.txt\narxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\narxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\narxiv-2609.27732v1.txt","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"da596833-2013-4c5f-a750-191935742a49","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}15{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","hash":"d4317f6cd2f4ff667529a9bbcc1321567bf4d95594ccf854b07bdb1d0c72b36c","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_013WQ21vMr9r1YhyutBBFX7x","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat TASK.md; 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cat data/reference_list.json; cat gate_spec.json bundle.json; wc -l data/*.* data/sources/*","description":"Read data readme, references, gate spec"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":2550,"cache_read_input_tokens":4315,"output_tokens":127,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":0},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":2550},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXrZCMvHqus7gMkWDotg","requestRef":"5dc84951-34ae-42cb-9357-3cb57e5e3fa4","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"59a3e68a-5b1a-4733-8032-179dadc80832","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:17:34.803Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}20{"parentUuid":"59a3e68a-5b1a-4733-8032-179dadc80832","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"a877fa16-3d14-4219-9764-c00485adc5dc","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01VCxWYFXd2TfFqd3yng7vHb","type":"tool_result","content":"# Data provenance — F4-conf-04\n\nAll files under `data/sources/` are plain-text extracts of publicly accessible documents, prepared by the task designer on 2026-10-30 (UTC). Each extract begins with a provenance header (title, authors, bibliographic record, retrieval URL and UTC, SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML, license, list of included and omitted sections). Only the excerpts needed for the task are reproduced; everything else is omitted. Tables are rendered one row per line with ` | ` between cells; in regression tables, the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses as printed in the original.\n\n| file | document | retrieval UTC | license | SHA-256 of the extract |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| `sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt` | Armendariz, A. (2026). Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland. arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.27732v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | ee2d444d2f78f2af2ca2cf69b59a61fcd7ac5e10ea29e8ddcd67917bf07d6a8b |\n| `sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt` | Li, H. H., Pearson-Merkowitz, S., & Yokum, D. (2026). Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes. arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.14621v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | 27c463c0a144d9d5a3916dc641f15b6029f6c68b5e574ad9074e7df1aeb0a238 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt` | Liu, W., & Zhao, R. (2026). Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London. arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], v2 of 2 Apr 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2603.03260v2) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | 3cb9a4f3574e7b2272fe19cde165a745543883f86beb9342f6fc0ab744c31551 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt` | Kanayama, H., Miyaji, S., & Otani, S. (2025/2026). Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation. arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], v1 of 7 May 2025, v3 of 16 Mar 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2505.04555v3) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | b1731a9b1c40ae91c6be2cf2e92623bb6cf86c551587936a0270356f76ae95c1 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt` | Tossou, S. C. (2025). Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin. arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2510.03658v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | f8782937eeaebd2dae0e653bbfc6aeb266c51587d09a4207bcaa3fa48a881127 |\n\nTask-specific input files (prepared by the task designer, not observed data):\n\n- `reference_list.json` — the five bibliographic entries with the finding attributed to each and the extract to check against, written by the task designer\n\nRights: arXiv e-prints are reproduced in part under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence shown on their arXiv abstract pages. No numbers were altered; where a table was re-set for legibility (RESEA Tables 2-3, London Table 3 header) the extract header says so.\n[\n {\n \"id\": \"R1\",\n \"entry\": \"Armendariz, A. (2026). Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland. arXiv:2609.27732.\",\n \"cited_for\": \"Drug consumption room openings reduce drug-related hospitalisation rates by roughly 35% within 5 km of a facility (ATT −0.431, SE 0.210, significant at the 5% level), using a staggered difference-in-differences design on Swiss hospital records.\",\n \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"R2\",\n \"entry\": \"Li, H. H., Pearson-Merkowitz, S., & Yokum, D. (2026). Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes. arXiv:2606.14621.\",\n \"cited_for\": \"In a preregistered randomised controlled trial (N = 23,549), selection into RESEA raised annualised wages by $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), raised reemployment by 1.47 percentage points and reduced weeks on UI by 1.99 weeks.\",\n \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"R3\",\n \"entry\": \"Liu, W., & Zhao, R. (2024). Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change: Commercial Entry and House Prices in Greater London. arXiv:2603.03260.\",\n \"cited_for\": \"Local house prices jump by 3.4–3.7% in the year in which food-and-drink establishments enter an LSOA, with no further appreciation in later years.\",\n \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"R4\",\n \"entry\": \"Kanayama, H., Miyaji, S., & Otani, S. (2025). Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation. arXiv:2505.04555.\",\n \"cited_for\": \"In Japan's spot labour market, the employment elasticity with respect to the minimum wage is −0.388 (SE 0.132) and the own-wage employment elasticity is −0.732 (SE 0.091).\",\n \"source_file\": \"sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt\"\n },\n {\n \"id\": \"R5\",\n \"entry\": \"Tossou, S. C. (2025). Who benefits the most? 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Each extract begins with a provenance header (title, authors, bibliographic record, retrieval URL and UTC, SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML, license, list of included and omitted sections). Only the excerpts needed for the task are reproduced; everything else is omitted. Tables are rendered one row per line with ` | ` between cells; in regression tables, the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses as printed in the original.\n\n| file | document | retrieval UTC | license | SHA-256 of the extract |\n|---|---|---|---|---|\n| `sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt` | Armendariz, A. (2026). Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland. arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.27732v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | ee2d444d2f78f2af2ca2cf69b59a61fcd7ac5e10ea29e8ddcd67917bf07d6a8b |\n| `sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt` | Li, H. H., Pearson-Merkowitz, S., & Yokum, D. (2026). Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes. arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.14621v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | 27c463c0a144d9d5a3916dc641f15b6029f6c68b5e574ad9074e7df1aeb0a238 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt` | Liu, W., & Zhao, R. (2026). Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London. arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], v2 of 2 Apr 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2603.03260v2) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | 3cb9a4f3574e7b2272fe19cde165a745543883f86beb9342f6fc0ab744c31551 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt` | Kanayama, H., Miyaji, S., & Otani, S. (2025/2026). Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation. arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], v1 of 7 May 2025, v3 of 16 Mar 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2505.04555v3) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | b1731a9b1c40ae91c6be2cf2e92623bb6cf86c551587936a0270356f76ae95c1 |\n| `sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt` | Tossou, S. C. (2025). Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin. arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN]. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1 (full text: https://arxiv.org/html/2510.03658v1) | 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z | CC BY 4.0 | f8782937eeaebd2dae0e653bbfc6aeb266c51587d09a4207bcaa3fa48a881127 |\n\nTask-specific input files (prepared by the task designer, not observed data):\n\n- `reference_list.json` — the five bibliographic entries with the finding attributed to each and the extract to check against, written by the task designer\n\nRights: arXiv e-prints are reproduced in part under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence shown on their arXiv abstract pages. No numbers were altered; where a table was re-set for legibility (RESEA Tables 2-3, London Table 3 header) the extract header says so.\n[\n {\n \"id\": \"R1\",\n \"entry\": \"Armendariz, A. (2026). Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? 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Evidence from Switzerland\n 3\tAuthors: Ana Armendariz (University of St. Gallen)\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN], submitted 23 Sep 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.27732v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 22b06050f4ff6e665aedd80561fa4031b1717867ecfeca71d1d2902ee1b09f52)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, author, date and abstract; Section 6 'Results' in full (Figure notes, Table 6, Table 7, Section 6.1 'Mechanisms'); Appendix Table A19 with its note and the paragraph that discusses it.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-5 and 7, the other appendix tables and figures, the references.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n 13\t\n 14\tAna Armendariz*\n 15\t\n 16\tSeptember 23, 2026\n 17\t\n 18\tThis paper estimates the causal effect of drug consumption room (DCR) openings on drug-related hospitalizations in Switzerland. I exploit the staggered introduction of DCRs across Swiss cities between 1998 and 2022, using individual-level hospital records and a difference-in-differences estimator. DCR openings reduce drug-related hospitalization rates by roughly 35% within 5 km of a facility. The reduction is most pronounced for fatal outcomes, which fall by 35% while narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise by a comparable amount, consistent with DCRs converting potentially fatal overdoses into non-fatal hospitalizations. Mental and behavioral disorder hospitalizations decline by 32% while estimates for Hepatitis and HIV are imprecise. The findings support the role of DCRs as an effective harm reduction strategy.\n 19\t\n 20\tKeywords: Drug Consumption Rooms, Harm Reduction, Hospitalizations, Drugs, Public Health, Causal Inference\n 21\t\n 22\t## 6 Results\n 23\t\n 24\tThis section reports the effect of DCR openings on the rate of drug-related hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants. I begin with the event-study estimates and then present the overall pooled ATT. I then disaggregate the overall outcome into its sub-outcome categories and report the same estimates for each.\n 25\t\n 26\tFigure 6: Event study estimates by buffer zone, \\pm 5-year window\n 27\t\n 28\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust estimator of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) for regions within 5 km of a DCR opening. The comparison group consists of never-treated regions (608 control regions). The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a DCR that opened between 1998 and 2022 and all never-treated regions. The estimation uses a \\pm 5-year window relative to DCR opening, with t=-5 and t=+5 representing pooled endpoint bins that absorb all periods beyond the window. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded through out. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level. Results for the 1 km and 3 km buffer specifications are reported in Appendix Figure A17.\n 29\t\n 30\tFigure 6 presents the event study estimates for the 5 km buffer specifications. I focus on the 5 km buffer specification, as it includes the largest number of treated regions and yields the most precise estimates. I summarize dynamic effects over a symmetric five year window around DCR openings. This window avoids relying on distant leads and lags that are informed by only a small subset of adopters. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and statistically insignificant, supporting the parallel trends assumption. The post-treatment coefficients are consistently negative, indicating a reduction in drug-related hospitalizations following DCR openings. The estimates of the overall summary of ATTs based on calendar time aggregation of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) is around -35% reduction in hospitalizations due to drugs.\n 31\t\n 32\tTable 6: Overall Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT)\n 33\t\n 34\t| 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n 35\t\n 36\tATT | -0.399 | -0.283 | -0.431**\n 37\t\n 38\t| (0.412) | (0.279) | (0.210)\n 39\t\n 40\t% change | -32.9% | -24.7% | -35.0%\n 41\t\n 42\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n 43\t\n 44\tControl regions | 608 | 608 | 608\n 45\t\n 46\tObservations | 16,175 | 16,875 | 17,250\n 47\t\n 48\tNote: The table reports the overall ATT estimated using the doubly robust Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with never-treated controls and a universal base period. The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. Columns differ in the geographic buffer used to define treated Medstat regions. The control group consists of 608 never-treated Medstat regions\n 49\tthroughout. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998\n 50\t(always-treated) are excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level in\n 51\tparentheses. Significance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 ,\n 52\t{}^{*}p<0.10 .\n 53\t\n 54\tTable 6 reports the pooled ATT for the 1 km, 3 km and 5 km buffer specification, aggregating the dynamic treatment effects into a single estimate averaged across all post-treatment periods and cohorts. The 5 km specification, yields an ATT of -0.431\n 55\tcorresponding to a 35% reduction in the drug-related hospitalization rate. This estimate is statistically significant at the 5% level. The 3 km and 1 km estimates point in the same direction but are less precise, due to the smaller number of treated regions.\n 56\t\n 57\tTo further explore the mechanisms through which DCR openings affect drug-related hospitalizations, I disaggregate the main outcome into five diagnostic\n 58\tsub-categories: (i) mental and behavioral disorders due to psychoactive substance use, (ii) viral hepatitis, (iii) HIV, (iv) poisoning by narcotics and psychodysleptics, and (v) fatal drug-related hospitalizations. Accidental poisoning is excluded due to the very small number of cases.\n 59\t\n 60\tFigure 7: Event study: Sub-outcome estimates,\n 61\twithin 5 km, \\pm 5-year window\n 62\t\n 63\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator for four diagnostic sub-categories of drug-related hospitalizations. Each panel uses a separate y -axis to accommodate differences in scale across outcomes. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a\n 64\tDCR that opened between 1998 and 2022. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level.\n 65\t\n 66\tTable 7: Overall ATT by Outcome Category and Buffer Zone\n 67\t\n 68\tOutcome | 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n 69\t\n 70\tMental/Behavioral | -0.354 | -0.202 | -0.381*\n 71\t\n 72\t| (0.382) | (0.244) | (0.220)\n 73\t\n 74\tHepatitis | -0.270 | -0.413 | -0.406\n 75\t\n 76\t| (0.486) | (0.270) | (0.250)\n 77\t\n 78\tHIV | 0.063 | -0.239 | -0.340\n 79\t\n 80\t| (0.801) | (0.337) | (0.294)\n 81\t\n 82\tNarcotics | 1.186*** | 0.549*** | 0.390**\n 83\t\n 84\t| (0.288) | (0.187) | (0.165)\n 85\t\n 86\tDrug-related (fatal) | -1.207*** | -0.290 | -0.354**\n 87\t\n 88\t| (0.137) | (0.215) | (0.178)\n 89\t\n 90\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n 91\t\n 92\tControl regions | 608 (never-treated) | |\n 93\t\n 94\tNote: Each cell reports the overall ATT from\n 95\tthe doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with\n 96\tnever-treated controls and a universal base period. Outcomes are\n 97\tlog hospitalization rates per 100,000 inhabitants. Sub-outcomes:\n 98\tmental and behavioral disorders (F11–F19), viral hepatitis (B15–B19),\n 99\tHIV disease (B20–B24), narcotics/psychodysleptics (T40). The 1 km\n 100\testimates are identified from a single treated region per cohort and\n 101\tshould be interpreted with caution. Regions near DCRs opened before\n 102\t1998 excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level.\n 103\tSignificance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 , {}^{*}p<0.10 .\n 104\t\n 105\tFigure 7 and Table 7 repeat the estimation for the five diagnostic categories. From Table 7, the ATT estimates for hospitalizations due to mental and behavioral disorders are consistently negative and marginally significant at the 5 km buffer specification. Moreover, the estimates of hepatitis are also negative and of comparable magnitude but insignificant. However, the event-study path in Figure 7 shows a gradual decline that builds from year 3 onward, consistent with a slow-acting reduction in needle sharing. HIV estimates are insignificant and close to zero. Narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise after DCR opening and remain positive across all buffers. Lastly, fatal drug-related hospitalizations move in the opposite direction, falling after opening the DCR. The opposing patterns in narcotics and fatal hospitalizations suggest that DCRs convert events that would otherwise be fatal into survivable hospital contacts.\n 106\t\n 107\t### 6.1 Mechanisms\n 108\t\n 109\tThe sub-outcome results point to two channels through which DCRs reduce drug-related hospitalizations. The first is overdose supervision. DCRs provide a medically supervised environment where staff can control the dose consumed, perform resuscitation, and call emergency services when an overdose occurs. When supervision prevents a death that would otherwise happen outside a hospital, the consequence is a simultaneous decline in fatal drug-related hospitalizations and a rise in non-fatal poisoning contacts, as events that would have ended in death instead end in a hospital visit. The results are consistent with this prediction. Drug-related fatal hospitalizations fall near DCRs, by approximately 30% at 5 km, while narcotics and psychodysleptics hospitalizations rise by 47% at 5 km. The opposing signs and spatial concentration of these two effects are consistent with a\n 110\tsubstitution from out-of-hospital mortality to in-hospital survival. Since I cannot observe overdose events that do not result in a hospital contact, this interpretation is suggestive rather than identified, but it is consistent with the clinical evidence on DCR-based overdose reversals\n 111\t(Kerr et al., 2017; Hedrich, 2004).\n 112\t\n 113\tThe second channel is harm reduction for blood-borne diseases. DCRs distribute sterile injection equipment, which reduces needle sharing and the transmission of viral hepatitis and HIV. Unlike overdose prevention, these effects are expected to emerge slowly, since disease progression and hospitalization take years to follow from initial infection. The event-study path for hepatitis is consistent with this lag. The estimates are close to zero in the first two post-treatment years and become progressively more negative from year 3 onward, reaching approximately 40% below baseline by year 5. HIV estimates are near zero through out the analysis, with wide confidence intervals. A longer panel and additional out-patient data would be needed to determine whether these trends continue and to get more precise estimates.\n 114\t\n 115\tA third potential channel is referral to treatment and social services. DCRs routinely connect users to addiction treatment, primary care, and housing support, and a sustained reduction in hospitalizations could partly reflect better long-term management of drug dependence. The regional hospitalization panel used in this paper does not contain information on treatment entry or service use, so I cannot separate this channel from the two described above. It remains a plausible additional mechanism that future work with information on treatment take up data could examine.\n 116\t\n 117\tTable A19: Robustness: Overall ATT Across Estimators — 5 km buffer, \\pm 5-year window\n 118\t\n 119\t| CS-DR | Sun & Abraham | Synthetic DiD | Stacked DiD\n 120\t\n 121\tATT | -0.431** | -0.438** | -0.362* | -0.149***\n 122\t\n 123\t| (0.218) | (0.208) | (0.205) | (0.038)\n 124\t\n 125\t% change | -35.0% | -35.5% | -30.3% | -13.9%\n 126\t\n 127\tTreated regions | 50 | | |\n 128\t\n 129\tControl regions | 608 | | |\n 130\t\n 131\tObservations | 17,250 | | |\n 132\t\n 133\tNote: All specifications use the 5 km buffer,\n 134\tnever-treated comparison regions (640 regions), and a \\pm 5-year window","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"1b3e2195-ce52-48e0-9d17-ffb83a36273d","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:17:36.507Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2609.27732v1\n 2\tTitle: Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n 3\tAuthors: Ana Armendariz (University of St. Gallen)\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN], submitted 23 Sep 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.27732v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 22b06050f4ff6e665aedd80561fa4031b1717867ecfeca71d1d2902ee1b09f52)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, author, date and abstract; Section 6 'Results' in full (Figure notes, Table 6, Table 7, Section 6.1 'Mechanisms'); Appendix Table A19 with its note and the paragraph that discusses it.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-5 and 7, the other appendix tables and figures, the references.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n 13\t\n 14\tAna Armendariz*\n 15\t\n 16\tSeptember 23, 2026\n 17\t\n 18\tThis paper estimates the causal effect of drug consumption room (DCR) openings on drug-related hospitalizations in Switzerland. I exploit the staggered introduction of DCRs across Swiss cities between 1998 and 2022, using individual-level hospital records and a difference-in-differences estimator. DCR openings reduce drug-related hospitalization rates by roughly 35% within 5 km of a facility. The reduction is most pronounced for fatal outcomes, which fall by 35% while narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise by a comparable amount, consistent with DCRs converting potentially fatal overdoses into non-fatal hospitalizations. Mental and behavioral disorder hospitalizations decline by 32% while estimates for Hepatitis and HIV are imprecise. The findings support the role of DCRs as an effective harm reduction strategy.\n 19\t\n 20\tKeywords: Drug Consumption Rooms, Harm Reduction, Hospitalizations, Drugs, Public Health, Causal Inference\n 21\t\n 22\t## 6 Results\n 23\t\n 24\tThis section reports the effect of DCR openings on the rate of drug-related hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants. I begin with the event-study estimates and then present the overall pooled ATT. I then disaggregate the overall outcome into its sub-outcome categories and report the same estimates for each.\n 25\t\n 26\tFigure 6: Event study estimates by buffer zone, \\pm 5-year window\n 27\t\n 28\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust estimator of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) for regions within 5 km of a DCR opening. The comparison group consists of never-treated regions (608 control regions). The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a DCR that opened between 1998 and 2022 and all never-treated regions. The estimation uses a \\pm 5-year window relative to DCR opening, with t=-5 and t=+5 representing pooled endpoint bins that absorb all periods beyond the window. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded through out. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level. Results for the 1 km and 3 km buffer specifications are reported in Appendix Figure A17.\n 29\t\n 30\tFigure 6 presents the event study estimates for the 5 km buffer specifications. I focus on the 5 km buffer specification, as it includes the largest number of treated regions and yields the most precise estimates. I summarize dynamic effects over a symmetric five year window around DCR openings. This window avoids relying on distant leads and lags that are informed by only a small subset of adopters. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and statistically insignificant, supporting the parallel trends assumption. The post-treatment coefficients are consistently negative, indicating a reduction in drug-related hospitalizations following DCR openings. The estimates of the overall summary of ATTs based on calendar time aggregation of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) is around -35% reduction in hospitalizations due to drugs.\n 31\t\n 32\tTable 6: Overall Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT)\n 33\t\n 34\t| 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n 35\t\n 36\tATT | -0.399 | -0.283 | -0.431**\n 37\t\n 38\t| (0.412) | (0.279) | (0.210)\n 39\t\n 40\t% change | -32.9% | -24.7% | -35.0%\n 41\t\n 42\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n 43\t\n 44\tControl regions | 608 | 608 | 608\n 45\t\n 46\tObservations | 16,175 | 16,875 | 17,250\n 47\t\n 48\tNote: The table reports the overall ATT estimated using the doubly robust Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with never-treated controls and a universal base period. The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. Columns differ in the geographic buffer used to define treated Medstat regions. The control group consists of 608 never-treated Medstat regions\n 49\tthroughout. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998\n 50\t(always-treated) are excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level in\n 51\tparentheses. Significance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 ,\n 52\t{}^{*}p<0.10 .\n 53\t\n 54\tTable 6 reports the pooled ATT for the 1 km, 3 km and 5 km buffer specification, aggregating the dynamic treatment effects into a single estimate averaged across all post-treatment periods and cohorts. The 5 km specification, yields an ATT of -0.431\n 55\tcorresponding to a 35% reduction in the drug-related hospitalization rate. This estimate is statistically significant at the 5% level. The 3 km and 1 km estimates point in the same direction but are less precise, due to the smaller number of treated regions.\n 56\t\n 57\tTo further explore the mechanisms through which DCR openings affect drug-related hospitalizations, I disaggregate the main outcome into five diagnostic\n 58\tsub-categories: (i) mental and behavioral disorders due to psychoactive substance use, (ii) viral hepatitis, (iii) HIV, (iv) poisoning by narcotics and psychodysleptics, and (v) fatal drug-related hospitalizations. Accidental poisoning is excluded due to the very small number of cases.\n 59\t\n 60\tFigure 7: Event study: Sub-outcome estimates,\n 61\twithin 5 km, \\pm 5-year window\n 62\t\n 63\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator for four diagnostic sub-categories of drug-related hospitalizations. Each panel uses a separate y -axis to accommodate differences in scale across outcomes. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a\n 64\tDCR that opened between 1998 and 2022. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level.\n 65\t\n 66\tTable 7: Overall ATT by Outcome Category and Buffer Zone\n 67\t\n 68\tOutcome | 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n 69\t\n 70\tMental/Behavioral | -0.354 | -0.202 | -0.381*\n 71\t\n 72\t| (0.382) | (0.244) | (0.220)\n 73\t\n 74\tHepatitis | -0.270 | -0.413 | -0.406\n 75\t\n 76\t| (0.486) | (0.270) | (0.250)\n 77\t\n 78\tHIV | 0.063 | -0.239 | -0.340\n 79\t\n 80\t| (0.801) | (0.337) | (0.294)\n 81\t\n 82\tNarcotics | 1.186*** | 0.549*** | 0.390**\n 83\t\n 84\t| (0.288) | (0.187) | (0.165)\n 85\t\n 86\tDrug-related (fatal) | -1.207*** | -0.290 | -0.354**\n 87\t\n 88\t| (0.137) | (0.215) | (0.178)\n 89\t\n 90\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n 91\t\n 92\tControl regions | 608 (never-treated) | |\n 93\t\n 94\tNote: Each cell reports the overall ATT from\n 95\tthe doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with\n 96\tnever-treated controls and a universal base period. Outcomes are\n 97\tlog hospitalization rates per 100,000 inhabitants. Sub-outcomes:\n 98\tmental and behavioral disorders (F11–F19), viral hepatitis (B15–B19),\n 99\tHIV disease (B20–B24), narcotics/psychodysleptics (T40). The 1 km\n 100\testimates are identified from a single treated region per cohort and\n 101\tshould be interpreted with caution. Regions near DCRs opened before\n 102\t1998 excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level.\n 103\tSignificance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 , {}^{*}p<0.10 .\n 104\t\n 105\tFigure 7 and Table 7 repeat the estimation for the five diagnostic categories. From Table 7, the ATT estimates for hospitalizations due to mental and behavioral disorders are consistently negative and marginally significant at the 5 km buffer specification. Moreover, the estimates of hepatitis are also negative and of comparable magnitude but insignificant. However, the event-study path in Figure 7 shows a gradual decline that builds from year 3 onward, consistent with a slow-acting reduction in needle sharing. HIV estimates are insignificant and close to zero. Narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise after DCR opening and remain positive across all buffers. Lastly, fatal drug-related hospitalizations move in the opposite direction, falling after opening the DCR. The opposing patterns in narcotics and fatal hospitalizations suggest that DCRs convert events that would otherwise be fatal into survivable hospital contacts.\n 106\t\n 107\t### 6.1 Mechanisms\n 108\t\n 109\tThe sub-outcome results point to two channels through which DCRs reduce drug-related hospitalizations. The first is overdose supervision. DCRs provide a medically supervised environment where staff can control the dose consumed, perform resuscitation, and call emergency services when an overdose occurs. When supervision prevents a death that would otherwise happen outside a hospital, the consequence is a simultaneous decline in fatal drug-related hospitalizations and a rise in non-fatal poisoning contacts, as events that would have ended in death instead end in a hospital visit. The results are consistent with this prediction. Drug-related fatal hospitalizations fall near DCRs, by approximately 30% at 5 km, while narcotics and psychodysleptics hospitalizations rise by 47% at 5 km. The opposing signs and spatial concentration of these two effects are consistent with a\n 110\tsubstitution from out-of-hospital mortality to in-hospital survival. Since I cannot observe overdose events that do not result in a hospital contact, this interpretation is suggestive rather than identified, but it is consistent with the clinical evidence on DCR-based overdose reversals\n 111\t(Kerr et al., 2017; Hedrich, 2004).\n 112\t\n 113\tThe second channel is harm reduction for blood-borne diseases. DCRs distribute sterile injection equipment, which reduces needle sharing and the transmission of viral hepatitis and HIV. Unlike overdose prevention, these effects are expected to emerge slowly, since disease progression and hospitalization take years to follow from initial infection. The event-study path for hepatitis is consistent with this lag. The estimates are close to zero in the first two post-treatment years and become progressively more negative from year 3 onward, reaching approximately 40% below baseline by year 5. HIV estimates are near zero through out the analysis, with wide confidence intervals. A longer panel and additional out-patient data would be needed to determine whether these trends continue and to get more precise estimates.\n 114\t\n 115\tA third potential channel is referral to treatment and social services. DCRs routinely connect users to addiction treatment, primary care, and housing support, and a sustained reduction in hospitalizations could partly reflect better long-term management of drug dependence. The regional hospitalization panel used in this paper does not contain information on treatment entry or service use, so I cannot separate this channel from the two described above. It remains a plausible additional mechanism that future work with information on treatment take up data could examine.\n 116\t\n 117\tTable A19: Robustness: Overall ATT Across Estimators — 5 km buffer, \\pm 5-year window\n 118\t\n 119\t| CS-DR | Sun & Abraham | Synthetic DiD | Stacked DiD\n 120\t\n 121\tATT | -0.431** | -0.438** | -0.362* | -0.149***\n 122\t\n 123\t| (0.218) | (0.208) | (0.205) | (0.038)\n 124\t\n 125\t% change | -35.0% | -35.5% | -30.3% | -13.9%\n 126\t\n 127\tTreated regions | 50 | | |\n 128\t\n 129\tControl regions | 608 | | |\n 130\t\n 131\tObservations | 17,250 | | |\n 132\t\n 133\tNote: All specifications use the 5 km buffer,\n 134\tnever-treated comparison regions (640 regions), and a \\pm 5-year window","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"334eb7c3-4fe5-4b4d-b053-fd972112f200","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}25{"parentUuid":"1b3e2195-ce52-48e0-9d17-ffb83a36273d","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrZKNMVM9LEg7BiGTDt","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01X3nch1JiXP2qWG6ChAQT47","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt","description":"Read source R2"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":4105,"cache_read_input_tokens":6865,"output_tokens":187,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":0},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":4105},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXrZK5zLeJBNiH4Hj4Fk","requestRef":"67295b3d-78db-4037-ba3c-b98dcdec949e","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"00446c6a-3a3e-4eef-878e-80b724d2ef04","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:17:36.953Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}26{"parentUuid":"00446c6a-3a3e-4eef-878e-80b724d2ef04","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"a877fa16-3d14-4219-9764-c00485adc5dc","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01X3nch1JiXP2qWG6ChAQT47","type":"tool_result","content":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2606.14621v1\n 2\tTitle: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n 3\tAuthors: Harrison H. Li; Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz; David Yokum\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN], submitted 12 Jun 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.14621v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f98fb1b39edd2107051cddf1da34aa8cf19e74e04d60bf9305a88cf966417da1)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Results' (Table 2 with caption, the results paragraphs, Section 3.1 'Cost-benefit analysis'); from Section 4.1, Table 3 with its caption and the paragraph that discusses it.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2, Table 1, Section 3.2 (heterogeneous effects), the rest of Section 4, the references and the appendix.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\tEditorial note: Tables 2 and 3 were re-set in a one-row-per-outcome layout because the HTML rendering split each outcome over three rows and detached the p-values from their columns; the p-values and confidence intervals are attached to the column they belong to in the original (first p-value = treatment-control difference, second = average treatment effect).\n 11\t================================================================\n 12\t\n 13\t# Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n 14\t\n 15\tHarrison H. Li (Harvey Mudd College), Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz (University of Maryland, College Park), David Yokum (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)\n 16\t\n 17\t###### Abstract\n 18\t\n 19\tProlonged unemployment carries serious economic, health, and wellbeing costs. With federal support, most U.S. states now operate a Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program to help Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants return to work faster. We report results from a large (N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating Rhode Island’s RESEA program from February 2022 to September 2023. We estimate that selection into the program increased annualized wages by $1,153, increased reemployment by 1.5 percentage points, and reduced UI duration by nearly two weeks. The vast majority of these wage and reemployment effects appeared within two quarters of claimants’ first pay dates and persisted through at least the following year, and we estimate that each dollar spent on the program saved the state $2.64. Using causal forests, a machine learning technique for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), we also conduct an exploratory analysis to investigate if there are differential effects of selection into the RESEA program. We find that all participants experienced positive wage benefits from RESEA selection, with particularly large effects for older and lower-income workers. Finally, we improve upon prior RESEA evaluations by explicitly controlling for the week of treatment assignment — a methodological refinement absent from several existing RCTs of job-training programs that is important to eliminate confounding bias. We also discuss ways to harvest precision gains from baseline covariate adjustment without introducing large-sample bias.\n 20\t\n 21\t## 3 Results\n 22\t\n 23\t[Table 1 (pre-treatment characteristics) omitted from this extract.]\n 24\t\n 25\t[Table 2 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering, in which each outcome occupied three table rows; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate]\n 26\t\n 27\tOutcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate\n 28\tWage | $33,073 (SD: 36,749) | $33,043 (SD: 36,231) | $29; p=0.95; 95% CI: [-903, 962] | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\n 29\tReemployment | 75.2% | 75.0% | 0.26 pp; p=0.64; 95% CI: [-0.84, 1.37] | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]\n 30\tWeeks on UI | 15.2 weeks (SD: 9.3) | 17.3 weeks (SD: 9.4) | -2.10 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.34, -1.86] | -1.99 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75]\n 31\tShort-term wage | $23,776 (SD: 31,948) | $23,897 (SD: 32,293) | -$121; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-941, 700] | $1,195; p=0.007; 95% CI: [326, 2,064]\n 32\tShort-term reemployment | 61.4% | 61.6% | -0.18 pp; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-1.43, 1.06] | 1.66 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]\n 33\tShort-term weeks on UI | 14.2 weeks (SD: 8.4) | 15.9 weeks (SD: 8.3) | -1.70 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.92, -1.49] | -1.77 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.99, -1.55]\n 34\t\n 35\tTable 2: The average values of our long-term and short-term outcomes for the aggregate treatment and control groups in the study cohort, along with information about the differences in these averages between the treatment and control groups and our average treatment effect estimates. For the average outcomes, standard deviations are given in parentheses for the quantitative outcomes (wage and weeks on UI). For the treatment-control differences and the average treatment effect estimates, we provide two-sided p -values and 95% confidence intervals based on Welch’s two-sample t -test and the methodology described in the main text, respectively. The two rightmost columns illustrate how direct comparisons of outcome averages between the aggregate treatment and control groups can lead to significantly biased causal conclusions.\n 36\t\n 37\tOverall, we find that RESEA selection led to a statistically significant improvement in all three of the preregistered outcomes. RESEA selection led to a wage outcome that was $1,153 higher annually (95% CI: [$166, $2,141]; p=0.022 ), a 3.5% increase relative to the mean wage outcome of $33,043 in the control group (Table 2). There was also an estimated 1.47 percentage point increase in reemployment (95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]; p=0.013 ) and a 1.99 week reduction in the number of weeks on UI (95% CI: [1.75 weeks, 2.24 weeks]; p<0.001 ) due to RESEA selection. The latter is an 11.5% decrease compared to the mean control group weeks on UI outcome of 17.3 weeks. All three of these results remain statistically significant after correcting for multiple testing using Holm’s method to keep the familywise error rate below 5 percent.\n 38\t\n 39\tThe results for the short-term outcomes are substantively similar to those for the longer-term outcomes (Table 2). We estimate RESEA selection leads to a short-term wage outcome that is $1,195 higher (95% CI: [$326, $2,064]; p = 0.007) on an annualized basis and a 1.66 percentage point higher rate of short-term reemployment (95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]; p = 0.012). Given that the magnitudes of these causal estimates are very similar to those for the corresponding long-term outcomes, this suggests that the full impact of RESEA selection on wages and reemployment appears quickly by the second quarter after randomization, and persists for at least five quarters. We also find that those selected for RESEA spend 1.77 fewer weeks on UI in the benefit year of their claim (95% CI: [1.55 weeks, 1.99 weeks]; p ¡ 0.001). As this is a bit smaller than the effect size of 1.99 weeks estimated for the long term weeks on UI outcome, which includes an additional 26 weeks beyond the benefit year, we see some directional evidence that RESEA selection may also reduce the time spent on UI in the following year, suggesting that it may be helping claimants find employment that lasts longer, thereby reducing repetitive use of UI benefits.\n 40\t\n 41\tAs noted earlier, wages and reemployment are artificially zero-inflated due to missing out-of-state wage data. The Rhode Island job market is tightly integrated with those of the neighboring states of Massachusetts and Connecticut; the 2016-2020 5-Year American Community Survey found that nearly 16 percent of Rhode Island workers 16 years and older commuted out of state, mainly to Massachusetts. We note, however, that this missingness should not affect the directional validity of our causal analysis. This is because randomization ensures that this missingness is balanced between the treatment and control groups (within each block), unless RESEA selection itself differentially helps or hinders finding employment out of state or self-employment. To investigate this, we examined the presence of individuals who failed to exhaust their UI benefits in the benefit year of their claim while having $0 in reported RI wages for all of the five complete quarters after randomization. There were 3,325 claimants falling into this group, including 1,618 individuals (13.7%) in the aggregate control group and 1,707 individuals (14.6%) in the aggregate treatment group. After controlling for randomization week, this difference in proportions was not significant ( p = 0.55). The lack of statistical significance on this test with our large sample size along with the fact that the Rhode Island job database focuses overwhelmingly on jobs offered by Rhode Island employers suggests that RESEA selection does not differentially assist in finding out-of-state employment or self-employment.\n 42\t\n 43\t### 3.1 Cost-benefit analysis\n 44\t\n 45\tWe find that the decrease in time spent drawing UI benefits due to RESEA selection corresponds to a considerable cost savings to the state from paying out a smaller amount of UI benefits. We estimate that the average individual selected for RESEA during the study period drew $676 less (95% CI: [$563, $789], p<0.001 ) in UI benefits during the same benefit year of their claim than they would have if they were not selected for RESEA. This is a 9.9 percent reduction relative to the control group average of $6,839 in UI benefits drawn during the benefit year of the claim. Multiplying the estimate by the total number of individuals selected for RESEA in the study ( n=11,700 ) suggests that as a result of the program, the state paid out about $7.9 million fewer in UI benefits to claimants randomized during the study period over the same benefit year as their UI claims. This is much higher than the total expenditures of $2.99 million for the RESEA program over the study period, representing $2.64 in savings for the state budget for every $1 spent on the program.\n 46\t\n 47\t### 4.1 Methodological lessons (excerpt)\n 48\t\n 49\t[Table 3 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression]\n 50\t\n 51\tOutcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression\n 52\tWage | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141] | $1,137; p=0.014; 95% CI: [228, 2,047] | $1,100; p=0.027; 95% CI: [127, 2,073]\n 53\tReemployment | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62] | 1.48 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.63] | 1.49 pp; p=0.011; 95% CI: [0.34, 2.64]\n 54\tWeeks on UI | -1.99 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75] | -1.93 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.18, -1.68] | -1.97 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.22, -1.72]\n 55\t\n 56\tTable 3: A comparison of the ITT estimates, two-sided p -values, and 95% confidence intervals for our primary outcomes from three different methodologies: the preregistered analysis based on eq. (1), the covariate adjusted analysis based on eq. (2), and the fixed effects regression in eq. (3). The leftmost column based on the preregistered analysis duplicates the rightmost column in Table 2 for ease of comparison.\n 57\t\n 58\tIf we directly compared treatment group and control group outcome averages without accounting for the week of randomization, the results would suggest RESEA selection had no detectable average effect on the wage and reemployment outcomes (column 4, Table 2). However, such an analysis is potentially biased under the experimental design because it does not respect the blocked randomization, which makes the week of randomization a known confounder. For example, weeks with a larger number of UI applicants, which had a higher proportion of control group individuals, tended to have lower-earning applicants (Fig. 7), thereby inflating the average wage outcome in the control group relative to the treatment group. This is critical because out of the thirteen publically available studies of RESEA-related employment assistance programs rated by CLEAR as having high causal evidence, six used block randomization like we do, yet only two of these (Black, Smith, Berger, & Noel., 2002; Klerman et al., 2019) properly adjusted for the block. Three others among these six studies used regression or matching methods in an attempt to control for observed demographic variables but not the block (Poe-Yamagata et al., 2011; Michaelides et al., 2012; Manoli et al., 2018), while the remaining study (Michaelides & Mueser, 2018) fit a linear regression model with the block indicators as fixed effects, as did two other more recent evaluations in Nevada (Michaelides & Mian, 2021; Brigandi et al., 2024) . These fixed effects regressions amount to estimating the coefficient in the regression model","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"b0634010-b703-4740-82f1-be192c2f2f89","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:17:36.966Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2606.14621v1\n 2\tTitle: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n 3\tAuthors: Harrison H. Li; Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz; David Yokum\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN], submitted 12 Jun 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.14621v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f98fb1b39edd2107051cddf1da34aa8cf19e74e04d60bf9305a88cf966417da1)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Results' (Table 2 with caption, the results paragraphs, Section 3.1 'Cost-benefit analysis'); from Section 4.1, Table 3 with its caption and the paragraph that discusses it.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2, Table 1, Section 3.2 (heterogeneous effects), the rest of Section 4, the references and the appendix.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\tEditorial note: Tables 2 and 3 were re-set in a one-row-per-outcome layout because the HTML rendering split each outcome over three rows and detached the p-values from their columns; the p-values and confidence intervals are attached to the column they belong to in the original (first p-value = treatment-control difference, second = average treatment effect).\n 11\t================================================================\n 12\t\n 13\t# Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n 14\t\n 15\tHarrison H. Li (Harvey Mudd College), Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz (University of Maryland, College Park), David Yokum (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)\n 16\t\n 17\t###### Abstract\n 18\t\n 19\tProlonged unemployment carries serious economic, health, and wellbeing costs. With federal support, most U.S. states now operate a Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program to help Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants return to work faster. We report results from a large (N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating Rhode Island’s RESEA program from February 2022 to September 2023. We estimate that selection into the program increased annualized wages by $1,153, increased reemployment by 1.5 percentage points, and reduced UI duration by nearly two weeks. The vast majority of these wage and reemployment effects appeared within two quarters of claimants’ first pay dates and persisted through at least the following year, and we estimate that each dollar spent on the program saved the state $2.64. Using causal forests, a machine learning technique for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), we also conduct an exploratory analysis to investigate if there are differential effects of selection into the RESEA program. We find that all participants experienced positive wage benefits from RESEA selection, with particularly large effects for older and lower-income workers. Finally, we improve upon prior RESEA evaluations by explicitly controlling for the week of treatment assignment — a methodological refinement absent from several existing RCTs of job-training programs that is important to eliminate confounding bias. We also discuss ways to harvest precision gains from baseline covariate adjustment without introducing large-sample bias.\n 20\t\n 21\t## 3 Results\n 22\t\n 23\t[Table 1 (pre-treatment characteristics) omitted from this extract.]\n 24\t\n 25\t[Table 2 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering, in which each outcome occupied three table rows; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate]\n 26\t\n 27\tOutcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate\n 28\tWage | $33,073 (SD: 36,749) | $33,043 (SD: 36,231) | $29; p=0.95; 95% CI: [-903, 962] | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\n 29\tReemployment | 75.2% | 75.0% | 0.26 pp; p=0.64; 95% CI: [-0.84, 1.37] | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]\n 30\tWeeks on UI | 15.2 weeks (SD: 9.3) | 17.3 weeks (SD: 9.4) | -2.10 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.34, -1.86] | -1.99 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75]\n 31\tShort-term wage | $23,776 (SD: 31,948) | $23,897 (SD: 32,293) | -$121; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-941, 700] | $1,195; p=0.007; 95% CI: [326, 2,064]\n 32\tShort-term reemployment | 61.4% | 61.6% | -0.18 pp; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-1.43, 1.06] | 1.66 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]\n 33\tShort-term weeks on UI | 14.2 weeks (SD: 8.4) | 15.9 weeks (SD: 8.3) | -1.70 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.92, -1.49] | -1.77 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.99, -1.55]\n 34\t\n 35\tTable 2: The average values of our long-term and short-term outcomes for the aggregate treatment and control groups in the study cohort, along with information about the differences in these averages between the treatment and control groups and our average treatment effect estimates. For the average outcomes, standard deviations are given in parentheses for the quantitative outcomes (wage and weeks on UI). For the treatment-control differences and the average treatment effect estimates, we provide two-sided p -values and 95% confidence intervals based on Welch’s two-sample t -test and the methodology described in the main text, respectively. The two rightmost columns illustrate how direct comparisons of outcome averages between the aggregate treatment and control groups can lead to significantly biased causal conclusions.\n 36\t\n 37\tOverall, we find that RESEA selection led to a statistically significant improvement in all three of the preregistered outcomes. RESEA selection led to a wage outcome that was $1,153 higher annually (95% CI: [$166, $2,141]; p=0.022 ), a 3.5% increase relative to the mean wage outcome of $33,043 in the control group (Table 2). There was also an estimated 1.47 percentage point increase in reemployment (95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]; p=0.013 ) and a 1.99 week reduction in the number of weeks on UI (95% CI: [1.75 weeks, 2.24 weeks]; p<0.001 ) due to RESEA selection. The latter is an 11.5% decrease compared to the mean control group weeks on UI outcome of 17.3 weeks. All three of these results remain statistically significant after correcting for multiple testing using Holm’s method to keep the familywise error rate below 5 percent.\n 38\t\n 39\tThe results for the short-term outcomes are substantively similar to those for the longer-term outcomes (Table 2). We estimate RESEA selection leads to a short-term wage outcome that is $1,195 higher (95% CI: [$326, $2,064]; p = 0.007) on an annualized basis and a 1.66 percentage point higher rate of short-term reemployment (95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]; p = 0.012). Given that the magnitudes of these causal estimates are very similar to those for the corresponding long-term outcomes, this suggests that the full impact of RESEA selection on wages and reemployment appears quickly by the second quarter after randomization, and persists for at least five quarters. We also find that those selected for RESEA spend 1.77 fewer weeks on UI in the benefit year of their claim (95% CI: [1.55 weeks, 1.99 weeks]; p ¡ 0.001). As this is a bit smaller than the effect size of 1.99 weeks estimated for the long term weeks on UI outcome, which includes an additional 26 weeks beyond the benefit year, we see some directional evidence that RESEA selection may also reduce the time spent on UI in the following year, suggesting that it may be helping claimants find employment that lasts longer, thereby reducing repetitive use of UI benefits.\n 40\t\n 41\tAs noted earlier, wages and reemployment are artificially zero-inflated due to missing out-of-state wage data. The Rhode Island job market is tightly integrated with those of the neighboring states of Massachusetts and Connecticut; the 2016-2020 5-Year American Community Survey found that nearly 16 percent of Rhode Island workers 16 years and older commuted out of state, mainly to Massachusetts. We note, however, that this missingness should not affect the directional validity of our causal analysis. This is because randomization ensures that this missingness is balanced between the treatment and control groups (within each block), unless RESEA selection itself differentially helps or hinders finding employment out of state or self-employment. To investigate this, we examined the presence of individuals who failed to exhaust their UI benefits in the benefit year of their claim while having $0 in reported RI wages for all of the five complete quarters after randomization. There were 3,325 claimants falling into this group, including 1,618 individuals (13.7%) in the aggregate control group and 1,707 individuals (14.6%) in the aggregate treatment group. After controlling for randomization week, this difference in proportions was not significant ( p = 0.55). The lack of statistical significance on this test with our large sample size along with the fact that the Rhode Island job database focuses overwhelmingly on jobs offered by Rhode Island employers suggests that RESEA selection does not differentially assist in finding out-of-state employment or self-employment.\n 42\t\n 43\t### 3.1 Cost-benefit analysis\n 44\t\n 45\tWe find that the decrease in time spent drawing UI benefits due to RESEA selection corresponds to a considerable cost savings to the state from paying out a smaller amount of UI benefits. We estimate that the average individual selected for RESEA during the study period drew $676 less (95% CI: [$563, $789], p<0.001 ) in UI benefits during the same benefit year of their claim than they would have if they were not selected for RESEA. This is a 9.9 percent reduction relative to the control group average of $6,839 in UI benefits drawn during the benefit year of the claim. Multiplying the estimate by the total number of individuals selected for RESEA in the study ( n=11,700 ) suggests that as a result of the program, the state paid out about $7.9 million fewer in UI benefits to claimants randomized during the study period over the same benefit year as their UI claims. This is much higher than the total expenditures of $2.99 million for the RESEA program over the study period, representing $2.64 in savings for the state budget for every $1 spent on the program.\n 46\t\n 47\t### 4.1 Methodological lessons (excerpt)\n 48\t\n 49\t[Table 3 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression]\n 50\t\n 51\tOutcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression\n 52\tWage | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141] | $1,137; p=0.014; 95% CI: [228, 2,047] | $1,100; p=0.027; 95% CI: [127, 2,073]\n 53\tReemployment | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62] | 1.48 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.63] | 1.49 pp; p=0.011; 95% CI: [0.34, 2.64]\n 54\tWeeks on UI | -1.99 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75] | -1.93 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.18, -1.68] | -1.97 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.22, -1.72]\n 55\t\n 56\tTable 3: A comparison of the ITT estimates, two-sided p -values, and 95% confidence intervals for our primary outcomes from three different methodologies: the preregistered analysis based on eq. (1), the covariate adjusted analysis based on eq. (2), and the fixed effects regression in eq. (3). The leftmost column based on the preregistered analysis duplicates the rightmost column in Table 2 for ease of comparison.\n 57\t\n 58\tIf we directly compared treatment group and control group outcome averages without accounting for the week of randomization, the results would suggest RESEA selection had no detectable average effect on the wage and reemployment outcomes (column 4, Table 2). However, such an analysis is potentially biased under the experimental design because it does not respect the blocked randomization, which makes the week of randomization a known confounder. For example, weeks with a larger number of UI applicants, which had a higher proportion of control group individuals, tended to have lower-earning applicants (Fig. 7), thereby inflating the average wage outcome in the control group relative to the treatment group. This is critical because out of the thirteen publically available studies of RESEA-related employment assistance programs rated by CLEAR as having high causal evidence, six used block randomization like we do, yet only two of these (Black, Smith, Berger, & Noel., 2002; Klerman et al., 2019) properly adjusted for the block. Three others among these six studies used regression or matching methods in an attempt to control for observed demographic variables but not the block (Poe-Yamagata et al., 2011; Michaelides et al., 2012; Manoli et al., 2018), while the remaining study (Michaelides & Mueser, 2018) fit a linear regression model with the block indicators as fixed effects, as did two other more recent evaluations in Nevada (Michaelides & Mian, 2021; Brigandi et al., 2024) . These fixed effects regressions amount to estimating the coefficient in the regression model","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"00446c6a-3a3e-4eef-878e-80b724d2ef04","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}27{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","hash":"119b1b768ac47da4007018a9516b1ac4dc732ed154852ecca644054f4a9b5552","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_018Ea5FeSLmq3d1EHB2qHt7c","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt","description":"Read source R1"}},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01X3nch1JiXP2qWG6ChAQT47","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt","description":"Read source R2"}}]}}28{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","hash":"71677ad9f67cc228f9a8597bc20e7ed48d7c34da07bbc98f4eda65f27f1cf39e","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_018Ea5FeSLmq3d1EHB2qHt7c","type":"tool_result","content":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2609.27732v1\n 2\tTitle: Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n 3\tAuthors: Ana Armendariz (University of St. Gallen)\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN], submitted 23 Sep 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2609.27732v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 22b06050f4ff6e665aedd80561fa4031b1717867ecfeca71d1d2902ee1b09f52)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, author, date and abstract; Section 6 'Results' in full (Figure notes, Table 6, Table 7, Section 6.1 'Mechanisms'); Appendix Table A19 with its note and the paragraph that discusses it.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-5 and 7, the other appendix tables and figures, the references.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n 13\t\n 14\tAna Armendariz*\n 15\t\n 16\tSeptember 23, 2026\n 17\t\n 18\tThis paper estimates the causal effect of drug consumption room (DCR) openings on drug-related hospitalizations in Switzerland. I exploit the staggered introduction of DCRs across Swiss cities between 1998 and 2022, using individual-level hospital records and a difference-in-differences estimator. DCR openings reduce drug-related hospitalization rates by roughly 35% within 5 km of a facility. The reduction is most pronounced for fatal outcomes, which fall by 35% while narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise by a comparable amount, consistent with DCRs converting potentially fatal overdoses into non-fatal hospitalizations. Mental and behavioral disorder hospitalizations decline by 32% while estimates for Hepatitis and HIV are imprecise. The findings support the role of DCRs as an effective harm reduction strategy.\n 19\t\n 20\tKeywords: Drug Consumption Rooms, Harm Reduction, Hospitalizations, Drugs, Public Health, Causal Inference\n 21\t\n 22\t## 6 Results\n 23\t\n 24\tThis section reports the effect of DCR openings on the rate of drug-related hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants. I begin with the event-study estimates and then present the overall pooled ATT. I then disaggregate the overall outcome into its sub-outcome categories and report the same estimates for each.\n 25\t\n 26\tFigure 6: Event study estimates by buffer zone, \\pm 5-year window\n 27\t\n 28\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust estimator of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) for regions within 5 km of a DCR opening. The comparison group consists of never-treated regions (608 control regions). The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a DCR that opened between 1998 and 2022 and all never-treated regions. The estimation uses a \\pm 5-year window relative to DCR opening, with t=-5 and t=+5 representing pooled endpoint bins that absorb all periods beyond the window. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded through out. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level. Results for the 1 km and 3 km buffer specifications are reported in Appendix Figure A17.\n 29\t\n 30\tFigure 6 presents the event study estimates for the 5 km buffer specifications. I focus on the 5 km buffer specification, as it includes the largest number of treated regions and yields the most precise estimates. I summarize dynamic effects over a symmetric five year window around DCR openings. This window avoids relying on distant leads and lags that are informed by only a small subset of adopters. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and statistically insignificant, supporting the parallel trends assumption. The post-treatment coefficients are consistently negative, indicating a reduction in drug-related hospitalizations following DCR openings. The estimates of the overall summary of ATTs based on calendar time aggregation of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) is around -35% reduction in hospitalizations due to drugs.\n 31\t\n 32\tTable 6: Overall Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT)\n 33\t\n 34\t| 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n 35\t\n 36\tATT | -0.399 | -0.283 | -0.431**\n 37\t\n 38\t| (0.412) | (0.279) | (0.210)\n 39\t\n 40\t% change | -32.9% | -24.7% | -35.0%\n 41\t\n 42\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n 43\t\n 44\tControl regions | 608 | 608 | 608\n 45\t\n 46\tObservations | 16,175 | 16,875 | 17,250\n 47\t\n 48\tNote: The table reports the overall ATT estimated using the doubly robust Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with never-treated controls and a universal base period. The outcome is the log drug-related hospitalization rate per 100,000 inhabitants. Columns differ in the geographic buffer used to define treated Medstat regions. The control group consists of 608 never-treated Medstat regions\n 49\tthroughout. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998\n 50\t(always-treated) are excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level in\n 51\tparentheses. Significance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 ,\n 52\t{}^{*}p<0.10 .\n 53\t\n 54\tTable 6 reports the pooled ATT for the 1 km, 3 km and 5 km buffer specification, aggregating the dynamic treatment effects into a single estimate averaged across all post-treatment periods and cohorts. The 5 km specification, yields an ATT of -0.431\n 55\tcorresponding to a 35% reduction in the drug-related hospitalization rate. This estimate is statistically significant at the 5% level. The 3 km and 1 km estimates point in the same direction but are less precise, due to the smaller number of treated regions.\n 56\t\n 57\tTo further explore the mechanisms through which DCR openings affect drug-related hospitalizations, I disaggregate the main outcome into five diagnostic\n 58\tsub-categories: (i) mental and behavioral disorders due to psychoactive substance use, (ii) viral hepatitis, (iii) HIV, (iv) poisoning by narcotics and psychodysleptics, and (v) fatal drug-related hospitalizations. Accidental poisoning is excluded due to the very small number of cases.\n 59\t\n 60\tFigure 7: Event study: Sub-outcome estimates,\n 61\twithin 5 km, \\pm 5-year window\n 62\t\n 63\tNote: The figure plots event-study coefficients from the doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator for four diagnostic sub-categories of drug-related hospitalizations. Each panel uses a separate y -axis to accommodate differences in scale across outcomes. The sample includes all staggered-treated MedStat regions within 5 km of a\n 64\tDCR that opened between 1998 and 2022. The reference period is a universal base period. Regions near DCRs that opened before 1998 (always-treated) are excluded. 95% confidence intervals are based on standard errors clustered at the MedStat region level.\n 65\t\n 66\tTable 7: Overall ATT by Outcome Category and Buffer Zone\n 67\t\n 68\tOutcome | 1 km | 3 km | 5 km\n 69\t\n 70\tMental/Behavioral | -0.354 | -0.202 | -0.381*\n 71\t\n 72\t| (0.382) | (0.244) | (0.220)\n 73\t\n 74\tHepatitis | -0.270 | -0.413 | -0.406\n 75\t\n 76\t| (0.486) | (0.270) | (0.250)\n 77\t\n 78\tHIV | 0.063 | -0.239 | -0.340\n 79\t\n 80\t| (0.801) | (0.337) | (0.294)\n 81\t\n 82\tNarcotics | 1.186*** | 0.549*** | 0.390**\n 83\t\n 84\t| (0.288) | (0.187) | (0.165)\n 85\t\n 86\tDrug-related (fatal) | -1.207*** | -0.290 | -0.354**\n 87\t\n 88\t| (0.137) | (0.215) | (0.178)\n 89\t\n 90\tTreated regions | 7 | 35 | 50\n 91\t\n 92\tControl regions | 608 (never-treated) | |\n 93\t\n 94\tNote: Each cell reports the overall ATT from\n 95\tthe doubly robust Callaway & Sant’Anna (2021) estimator with\n 96\tnever-treated controls and a universal base period. Outcomes are\n 97\tlog hospitalization rates per 100,000 inhabitants. Sub-outcomes:\n 98\tmental and behavioral disorders (F11–F19), viral hepatitis (B15–B19),\n 99\tHIV disease (B20–B24), narcotics/psychodysleptics (T40). The 1 km\n 100\testimates are identified from a single treated region per cohort and\n 101\tshould be interpreted with caution. Regions near DCRs opened before\n 102\t1998 excluded. Standard errors clustered at the Medstat region level.\n 103\tSignificance: {}^{***}p<0.01 , {}^{**}p<0.05 , {}^{*}p<0.10 .\n 104\t\n 105\tFigure 7 and Table 7 repeat the estimation for the five diagnostic categories. From Table 7, the ATT estimates for hospitalizations due to mental and behavioral disorders are consistently negative and marginally significant at the 5 km buffer specification. Moreover, the estimates of hepatitis are also negative and of comparable magnitude but insignificant. However, the event-study path in Figure 7 shows a gradual decline that builds from year 3 onward, consistent with a slow-acting reduction in needle sharing. HIV estimates are insignificant and close to zero. Narcotics poisoning hospitalizations rise after DCR opening and remain positive across all buffers. Lastly, fatal drug-related hospitalizations move in the opposite direction, falling after opening the DCR. The opposing patterns in narcotics and fatal hospitalizations suggest that DCRs convert events that would otherwise be fatal into survivable hospital contacts.\n 106\t\n 107\t### 6.1 Mechanisms\n 108\t\n 109\tThe sub-outcome results point to two channels through which DCRs reduce drug-related hospitalizations. The first is overdose supervision. DCRs provide a medically supervised environment where staff can control the dose consumed, perform resuscitation, and call emergency services when an overdose occurs. When supervision prevents a death that would otherwise happen outside a hospital, the consequence is a simultaneous decline in fatal drug-related hospitalizations and a rise in non-fatal poisoning contacts, as events that would have ended in death instead end in a hospital visit. The results are consistent with this prediction. Drug-related fatal hospitalizations fall near DCRs, by approximately 30% at 5 km, while narcotics and psychodysleptics hospitalizations rise by 47% at 5 km. The opposing signs and spatial concentration of these two effects are consistent with a\n 110\tsubstitution from out-of-hospital mortality to in-hospital survival. Since I cannot observe overdose events that do not result in a hospital contact, this interpretation is suggestive rather than identified, but it is consistent with the clinical evidence on DCR-based overdose reversals\n 111\t(Kerr et al., 2017; Hedrich, 2004).\n 112\t\n 113\tThe second channel is harm reduction for blood-borne diseases. DCRs distribute sterile injection equipment, which reduces needle sharing and the transmission of viral hepatitis and HIV. Unlike overdose prevention, these effects are expected to emerge slowly, since disease progression and hospitalization take years to follow from initial infection. The event-study path for hepatitis is consistent with this lag. The estimates are close to zero in the first two post-treatment years and become progressively more negative from year 3 onward, reaching approximately 40% below baseline by year 5. HIV estimates are near zero through out the analysis, with wide confidence intervals. A longer panel and additional out-patient data would be needed to determine whether these trends continue and to get more precise estimates.\n 114\t\n 115\tA third potential channel is referral to treatment and social services. DCRs routinely connect users to addiction treatment, primary care, and housing support, and a sustained reduction in hospitalizations could partly reflect better long-term management of drug dependence. The regional hospitalization panel used in this paper does not contain information on treatment entry or service use, so I cannot separate this channel from the two described above. It remains a plausible additional mechanism that future work with information on treatment take up data could examine.\n 116\t\n 117\tTable A19: Robustness: Overall ATT Across Estimators — 5 km buffer, \\pm 5-year window\n 118\t\n 119\t| CS-DR | Sun & Abraham | Synthetic DiD | Stacked DiD\n 120\t\n 121\tATT | -0.431** | -0.438** | -0.362* | -0.149***\n 122\t\n 123\t| (0.218) | (0.208) | (0.205) | (0.038)\n 124\t\n 125\t% change | -35.0% | -35.5% | -30.3% | -13.9%\n 126\t\n 127\tTreated regions | 50 | | |\n 128\t\n 129\tControl regions | 608 | | |\n 130\t\n 131\tObservations | 17,250 | | |\n 132\t\n 133\tNote: All specifications use the 5 km buffer,\n 134\tnever-treated comparison regions (640 regions), and a \\pm 5-year window","is_error":false},{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01X3nch1JiXP2qWG6ChAQT47","type":"tool_result","content":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2606.14621v1\n 2\tTitle: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n 3\tAuthors: Harrison H. Li; Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz; David Yokum\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN], submitted 12 Jun 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2606.14621v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f98fb1b39edd2107051cddf1da34aa8cf19e74e04d60bf9305a88cf966417da1)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Results' (Table 2 with caption, the results paragraphs, Section 3.1 'Cost-benefit analysis'); from Section 4.1, Table 3 with its caption and the paragraph that discusses it.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2, Table 1, Section 3.2 (heterogeneous effects), the rest of Section 4, the references and the appendix.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\tEditorial note: Tables 2 and 3 were re-set in a one-row-per-outcome layout because the HTML rendering split each outcome over three rows and detached the p-values from their columns; the p-values and confidence intervals are attached to the column they belong to in the original (first p-value = treatment-control difference, second = average treatment effect).\n 11\t================================================================\n 12\t\n 13\t# Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n 14\t\n 15\tHarrison H. Li (Harvey Mudd College), Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz (University of Maryland, College Park), David Yokum (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)\n 16\t\n 17\t###### Abstract\n 18\t\n 19\tProlonged unemployment carries serious economic, health, and wellbeing costs. With federal support, most U.S. states now operate a Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program to help Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants return to work faster. We report results from a large (N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating Rhode Island’s RESEA program from February 2022 to September 2023. We estimate that selection into the program increased annualized wages by $1,153, increased reemployment by 1.5 percentage points, and reduced UI duration by nearly two weeks. The vast majority of these wage and reemployment effects appeared within two quarters of claimants’ first pay dates and persisted through at least the following year, and we estimate that each dollar spent on the program saved the state $2.64. Using causal forests, a machine learning technique for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), we also conduct an exploratory analysis to investigate if there are differential effects of selection into the RESEA program. We find that all participants experienced positive wage benefits from RESEA selection, with particularly large effects for older and lower-income workers. Finally, we improve upon prior RESEA evaluations by explicitly controlling for the week of treatment assignment — a methodological refinement absent from several existing RCTs of job-training programs that is important to eliminate confounding bias. We also discuss ways to harvest precision gains from baseline covariate adjustment without introducing large-sample bias.\n 20\t\n 21\t## 3 Results\n 22\t\n 23\t[Table 1 (pre-treatment characteristics) omitted from this extract.]\n 24\t\n 25\t[Table 2 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering, in which each outcome occupied three table rows; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate]\n 26\t\n 27\tOutcome | Treatment | Control | Treatment-control difference | Average treatment effect estimate\n 28\tWage | $33,073 (SD: 36,749) | $33,043 (SD: 36,231) | $29; p=0.95; 95% CI: [-903, 962] | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\n 29\tReemployment | 75.2% | 75.0% | 0.26 pp; p=0.64; 95% CI: [-0.84, 1.37] | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]\n 30\tWeeks on UI | 15.2 weeks (SD: 9.3) | 17.3 weeks (SD: 9.4) | -2.10 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.34, -1.86] | -1.99 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75]\n 31\tShort-term wage | $23,776 (SD: 31,948) | $23,897 (SD: 32,293) | -$121; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-941, 700] | $1,195; p=0.007; 95% CI: [326, 2,064]\n 32\tShort-term reemployment | 61.4% | 61.6% | -0.18 pp; p=0.77; 95% CI: [-1.43, 1.06] | 1.66 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]\n 33\tShort-term weeks on UI | 14.2 weeks (SD: 8.4) | 15.9 weeks (SD: 8.3) | -1.70 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.92, -1.49] | -1.77 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-1.99, -1.55]\n 34\t\n 35\tTable 2: The average values of our long-term and short-term outcomes for the aggregate treatment and control groups in the study cohort, along with information about the differences in these averages between the treatment and control groups and our average treatment effect estimates. For the average outcomes, standard deviations are given in parentheses for the quantitative outcomes (wage and weeks on UI). For the treatment-control differences and the average treatment effect estimates, we provide two-sided p -values and 95% confidence intervals based on Welch’s two-sample t -test and the methodology described in the main text, respectively. The two rightmost columns illustrate how direct comparisons of outcome averages between the aggregate treatment and control groups can lead to significantly biased causal conclusions.\n 36\t\n 37\tOverall, we find that RESEA selection led to a statistically significant improvement in all three of the preregistered outcomes. RESEA selection led to a wage outcome that was $1,153 higher annually (95% CI: [$166, $2,141]; p=0.022 ), a 3.5% increase relative to the mean wage outcome of $33,043 in the control group (Table 2). There was also an estimated 1.47 percentage point increase in reemployment (95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]; p=0.013 ) and a 1.99 week reduction in the number of weeks on UI (95% CI: [1.75 weeks, 2.24 weeks]; p<0.001 ) due to RESEA selection. The latter is an 11.5% decrease compared to the mean control group weeks on UI outcome of 17.3 weeks. All three of these results remain statistically significant after correcting for multiple testing using Holm’s method to keep the familywise error rate below 5 percent.\n 38\t\n 39\tThe results for the short-term outcomes are substantively similar to those for the longer-term outcomes (Table 2). We estimate RESEA selection leads to a short-term wage outcome that is $1,195 higher (95% CI: [$326, $2,064]; p = 0.007) on an annualized basis and a 1.66 percentage point higher rate of short-term reemployment (95% CI: [0.37, 2.96]; p = 0.012). Given that the magnitudes of these causal estimates are very similar to those for the corresponding long-term outcomes, this suggests that the full impact of RESEA selection on wages and reemployment appears quickly by the second quarter after randomization, and persists for at least five quarters. We also find that those selected for RESEA spend 1.77 fewer weeks on UI in the benefit year of their claim (95% CI: [1.55 weeks, 1.99 weeks]; p ¡ 0.001). As this is a bit smaller than the effect size of 1.99 weeks estimated for the long term weeks on UI outcome, which includes an additional 26 weeks beyond the benefit year, we see some directional evidence that RESEA selection may also reduce the time spent on UI in the following year, suggesting that it may be helping claimants find employment that lasts longer, thereby reducing repetitive use of UI benefits.\n 40\t\n 41\tAs noted earlier, wages and reemployment are artificially zero-inflated due to missing out-of-state wage data. The Rhode Island job market is tightly integrated with those of the neighboring states of Massachusetts and Connecticut; the 2016-2020 5-Year American Community Survey found that nearly 16 percent of Rhode Island workers 16 years and older commuted out of state, mainly to Massachusetts. We note, however, that this missingness should not affect the directional validity of our causal analysis. This is because randomization ensures that this missingness is balanced between the treatment and control groups (within each block), unless RESEA selection itself differentially helps or hinders finding employment out of state or self-employment. To investigate this, we examined the presence of individuals who failed to exhaust their UI benefits in the benefit year of their claim while having $0 in reported RI wages for all of the five complete quarters after randomization. There were 3,325 claimants falling into this group, including 1,618 individuals (13.7%) in the aggregate control group and 1,707 individuals (14.6%) in the aggregate treatment group. After controlling for randomization week, this difference in proportions was not significant ( p = 0.55). The lack of statistical significance on this test with our large sample size along with the fact that the Rhode Island job database focuses overwhelmingly on jobs offered by Rhode Island employers suggests that RESEA selection does not differentially assist in finding out-of-state employment or self-employment.\n 42\t\n 43\t### 3.1 Cost-benefit analysis\n 44\t\n 45\tWe find that the decrease in time spent drawing UI benefits due to RESEA selection corresponds to a considerable cost savings to the state from paying out a smaller amount of UI benefits. We estimate that the average individual selected for RESEA during the study period drew $676 less (95% CI: [$563, $789], p<0.001 ) in UI benefits during the same benefit year of their claim than they would have if they were not selected for RESEA. This is a 9.9 percent reduction relative to the control group average of $6,839 in UI benefits drawn during the benefit year of the claim. Multiplying the estimate by the total number of individuals selected for RESEA in the study ( n=11,700 ) suggests that as a result of the program, the state paid out about $7.9 million fewer in UI benefits to claimants randomized during the study period over the same benefit year as their UI claims. This is much higher than the total expenditures of $2.99 million for the RESEA program over the study period, representing $2.64 in savings for the state budget for every $1 spent on the program.\n 46\t\n 47\t### 4.1 Methodological lessons (excerpt)\n 48\t\n 49\t[Table 3 — re-set by the extract editor from the HTML rendering; all values are verbatim. Columns: Outcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression]\n 50\t\n 51\tOutcome | Difference in means | Covariate adjusted | Fixed effects regression\n 52\tWage | $1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141] | $1,137; p=0.014; 95% CI: [228, 2,047] | $1,100; p=0.027; 95% CI: [127, 2,073]\n 53\tReemployment | 1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62] | 1.48 pp; p=0.012; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.63] | 1.49 pp; p=0.011; 95% CI: [0.34, 2.64]\n 54\tWeeks on UI | -1.99 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75] | -1.93 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.18, -1.68] | -1.97 wks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.22, -1.72]\n 55\t\n 56\tTable 3: A comparison of the ITT estimates, two-sided p -values, and 95% confidence intervals for our primary outcomes from three different methodologies: the preregistered analysis based on eq. (1), the covariate adjusted analysis based on eq. (2), and the fixed effects regression in eq. (3). The leftmost column based on the preregistered analysis duplicates the rightmost column in Table 2 for ease of comparison.\n 57\t\n 58\tIf we directly compared treatment group and control group outcome averages without accounting for the week of randomization, the results would suggest RESEA selection had no detectable average effect on the wage and reemployment outcomes (column 4, Table 2). However, such an analysis is potentially biased under the experimental design because it does not respect the blocked randomization, which makes the week of randomization a known confounder. For example, weeks with a larger number of UI applicants, which had a higher proportion of control group individuals, tended to have lower-earning applicants (Fig. 7), thereby inflating the average wage outcome in the control group relative to the treatment group. This is critical because out of the thirteen publically available studies of RESEA-related employment assistance programs rated by CLEAR as having high causal evidence, six used block randomization like we do, yet only two of these (Black, Smith, Berger, & Noel., 2002; Klerman et al., 2019) properly adjusted for the block. Three others among these six studies used regression or matching methods in an attempt to control for observed demographic variables but not the block (Poe-Yamagata et al., 2011; Michaelides et al., 2012; Manoli et al., 2018), while the remaining study (Michaelides & Mueser, 2018) fit a linear regression model with the block indicators as fixed effects, as did two other more recent evaluations in Nevada (Michaelides & Mian, 2021; Brigandi et al., 2024) . These fixed effects regressions amount to estimating the coefficient in the regression 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1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2603.03260v2\n 2\tTitle: Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n 3\tAuthors: Wanqi Liu; Rong Zhao\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], version 1 submitted 3 Mar 2026, version 2 (this extract) submitted 2 Apr 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2603.03260v2 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 6e9a3c5fead449da09a981b0bacc36e1a4f652750caef972a173c3193525c327)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Empirical Strategy and Main Results' in full (equation (1), Table 2, Table 3 with notes, Figure 2 caption, Section 3.3); Section 5 'Conclusion'.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2 and 4, the appendix (Tables 4-5), the references.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n 13\t\n 14\tWanqi Liu, Rong Zhao (Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London)\n 15\t\n 16\t###### Abstract\n 17\t\n 18\tRestaurants, cafes, pubs, and takeaways are among the most visible markers of neighborhood change, yet whether their arrival is capitalised into nearby housing values remains empirically unsettled. We assemble a London-wide panel linking Land Registry prices, non-domestic EPC lodgement timings for food-and-drink establishments, and neighborhood amenity measures at the LSOA level. Our preferred annual event-study design defines treatment as the first clean-onset year in which an LSOA records at least two eligible EPC lodgements for food-and-drink establishments, after a two-year lookback with no prior entries. In this specification, pre-trend tests are not rejected in either the stacked or Sun-Abraham estimators, and log house prices rise gradually from about 0.5% in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five. The results are consistent with local amenity capitalization following commercial entry, while remaining appropriately cautious about endogenous siting and concurrent redevelopment.\n 19\t\n 20\t## 3 Empirical Strategy and Main Results\n 21\t\n 22\t### 3.1 Empirical Strategy\n 23\t\n 24\tOur main estimand is the reduced-form change in local log house prices following the first clean entry wave of food-and-drink establishments in an LSOA, relative to untreated LSOAs that remain at risk in the relevant event-time comparisons. It is best interpreted as a local capitalization estimand: it bundles direct amenity value, signaling, and related neighborhood revaluation, rather than isolating a single structural channel.\n 25\t\n 26\tThe central identification threat is endogenous siting. If businesses open where appreciation was already accelerating, post-entry coefficients will confound commercial entry with prior neighborhood change. To trace the dynamic price response while reducing that concern, we exploit the staggered timing of openings of food-and-drink establishments using EPC lodgement records for restaurants, cafes, drinking establishments, and takeaways. In the preferred specification, treatment begins in the first year an LSOA records at least two such EPC lodgements after a two-year lookback window with no prior eligible entry. Let E_{i} denote the treatment year for LSOA i (undefined for never-treated units). This clean-onset rule is intended to capture a discrete local entry wave rather than ongoing turnover. Our annual event-study specification is:\n 27\t\n 28\ty_{it}=\\alpha_{i}+\\delta_{t}+\\sum_{\\begin{subarray}{c}\\tau=-5\\\\\n 29\t\\tau\\neq-1\\end{subarray}}^{5}\\beta_{\\tau}\\,\\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\}+\\varepsilon_{it} | | | (1)\n 30\t\n 31\twhere \\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\} equals one when LSOA i is observed \\tau years relative to its treatment date, with \\tau=-1 as the omitted reference period. The coefficients \\{\\beta_{\\tau}\\} trace out the dynamic treatment effect, while the pre-period coefficients \\beta_{-5},\\ldots,\\beta_{-2} provide the main visual and joint-test check on parallel trends.\n 32\t\n 33\t#### Estimator comparisons.\n 34\t\n 35\tBecause staggered treatment timing can induce negative weighting in conventional TWFE [22], we treat the stacked design as the main estimator and compare it with a Sun and Abraham [23] interaction-weighted estimator. The point of this comparison is to check whether the post-entry path survives an alternative treatment-timing aggregation scheme, not to elevate a broad specification horse race into the main text.\n 36\t\n 37\t### 3.2 Main Event-Study Results\n 38\t\n 39\tUsing EPC lodgement records, we construct an annual design for entry of food-and-drink establishments in which treatment begins when an LSOA first records at least two eligible lodgements after a two-year clean-onset window with no prior entry. The preferred stacked sample contains 657,197 LSOA-year observations, 774 treated-role LSOAs, and 4,459 control-role LSOAs across risk sets. Treatment is distributed across sixteen cohorts from 2008 to 2023, with the largest cohort in 2009 (178 treated units) and meaningful support throughout the subsequent decade. Appendix cohort tables report the full cohort composition.\n 40\t\n 41\t#### Support across event time.\n 42\t\n 43\tTable 2 summarizes the support behind the stacked sample. Treated observations are most numerous near event time and then decline as the window moves farther into the tails, but support remains substantial even at \\tau=5 , where 546 treated observations from 11 contributing stacks remain in the estimating sample. This pattern matters for interpretation: medium-run coefficients are identified from fewer cohorts than the event-year effect, so later horizons should be read as economically informative but mechanically noisier.\n 44\t\n 45\tTable 2: Event-Time Support in the Stacked Sample\n 46\t\n 47\tEvent Time | Treated Obs. | Treated LSOAs | Contributing Stacks\n 48\t\n 49\t-5 | 572 | 572 | 14\n 50\t\n 51\t-4 | 751 | 751 | 15\n 52\t\n 53\t-3 | 769 | 769 | 16\n 54\t\n 55\t-2 | 763 | 763 | 16\n 56\t\n 57\t-1 | 761 | 761 | 16\n 58\t\n 59\t0 | 756 | 756 | 16\n 60\t\n 61\t1 | 689 | 689 | 15\n 62\t\n 63\t2 | 648 | 648 | 14\n 64\t\n 65\t3 | 610 | 610 | 13\n 66\t\n 67\t4 | 586 | 586 | 12\n 68\t\n 69\t5 | 546 | 546 | 11\n 70\t\n 71\t•\n 72\t\n 73\tNotes: Support counts from the preferred clean-onset stacked design for entry of food-and-drink establishments. “Contributing stacks” records how many cohort-specific risk sets identify each event-time coefficient.\n 74\t\n 75\t#### Headline dynamic pattern.\n 76\t\n 77\tFigure 2 reports the preferred clean-onset event-study path and overlays the event-time support behind each coefficient. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and imprecise, and the stacked joint pre-trend test does not reject ( p=0.241 ). The estimated effect is close to zero at event time and then turns positive: the stacked coefficient is 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.018 at \\tau=2 , 0.037 at \\tau=4 , and 0.034 by \\tau=5 . Interpreted in logs, these magnitudes correspond to a gradual appreciation of roughly 0.5% in the event year and about 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The pattern is notable for its slope as much as for its level: prices do not jump immediately, but instead drift upward as the new commercial entry becomes part of the local amenity bundle.\n 78\t\n 79\t#### Estimator comparison and design diagnostics.\n 80\t\n 81\tFor the preferred clean-onset design, the Sun-Abraham interaction-weighted path closely tracks the stacked path in the post-treatment period. The Sun coefficients are 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.016 at \\tau=2 , 0.036 at \\tau=4 , and 0.033 at \\tau=5 , and its joint pre-trend test is not rejected ( p=0.472 ). Table 3 places the preferred specification next to two nearby alternatives. Relative to the broader baseline threshold-2 design, clean-onset imposes more discipline on timing while preserving a similar medium-run magnitude. Relative to the neighbor-buffer variant, it avoids an extra layer of spatial pruning that mechanically strengthens post-treatment coefficients but yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore retain the unbuffered clean-onset design as the headline specification.\n 82\t\n 83\tTable 3: Main Design Diagnostics for the Headline Event-Study Specification\n 84\t\n 85\t[Extract editor's note: the header row of Table 3 is garbled in the HTML rendering; the six columns are, in order: Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend p | Sun pre-trend p | tau=4 coefficient | tau=5 coefficient.]\n 86\t\n 87\tp p \\tau=4 \\tau=5 Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend | Sun pre-trend | |\n 88\t\n 89\tBaseline threshold-2 | 1,084 | 0.342 | 0.223 | 0.029 | 0.022\n 90\t\n 91\tClean-onset threshold-2 | 774 | 0.241 | 0.472 | 0.037 | 0.034\n 92\t\n 93\tClean-onset + neighbor buffer | 774 | 0.126 | 0.239 | 0.042 | 0.040\n 94\t\n 95\t•\n 96\t\n 97\tNotes: Entries in the last two columns are log-point coefficients relative to \\tau=-1 . The baseline row uses the broader threshold-2 treatment without the clean-onset restriction. The preferred row uses the clean-onset threshold-2 treatment with a two-year lookback window and no prior eligible entry. The buffer row applies a first-order neighboring-control exclusion to the preferred design.\n 98\t\n 99\tFigure 2: Preferred clean-onset event-study estimates for entry of food-and-drink establishments. Point estimates are reported relative to the year before treatment ( \\tau=-1 ), which is shown as the open reference marker at zero, and plotted with 95% confidence intervals. Gray bars report the number of treated observations contributing to each event-time coefficient. The estimated path rises gradually from near zero in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five after entry.\n 100\t\n 101\t### 3.3 Robustness Checks\n 102\t\n 103\tThe main robustness question is whether the positive post-entry path survives plausible threats from spatial spillovers and concurrent redevelopment. Excluding first-order neighboring controls leaves the qualitative pattern intact and slightly strengthens post-treatment coefficients, but it also yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore treat the buffer variant as a supporting robustness check rather than as a replacement for the headline design. Planning-start outcome diagnostics are reported in Appendix Table 5 and are not used to select the preferred specification.\n 104\t\n 105\t## 5 Conclusion\n 106\t\n 107\tThis paper studies whether entry of food-and-drink establishments is followed by changes in neighborhood house prices in Greater London. In the preferred clean-onset event-study estimates, areas exposed to entry experience a gradual post-entry appreciation that reaches roughly 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The evidence is consistent with local amenity capitalization following visible commercial change, while also underscoring the need for continued falsification and treatment-validation work before treating the dynamic magnitudes as fully settled.","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"ac5008ad-40f9-4652-8991-df8d000e4f64","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:17:42.919Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2603.03260v2\n 2\tTitle: Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n 3\tAuthors: Wanqi Liu; Rong Zhao\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], version 1 submitted 3 Mar 2026, version 2 (this extract) submitted 2 Apr 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2603.03260v2 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 6e9a3c5fead449da09a981b0bacc36e1a4f652750caef972a173c3193525c327)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Empirical Strategy and Main Results' in full (equation (1), Table 2, Table 3 with notes, Figure 2 caption, Section 3.3); Section 5 'Conclusion'.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2 and 4, the appendix (Tables 4-5), the references.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n 13\t\n 14\tWanqi Liu, Rong Zhao (Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London)\n 15\t\n 16\t###### Abstract\n 17\t\n 18\tRestaurants, cafes, pubs, and takeaways are among the most visible markers of neighborhood change, yet whether their arrival is capitalised into nearby housing values remains empirically unsettled. We assemble a London-wide panel linking Land Registry prices, non-domestic EPC lodgement timings for food-and-drink establishments, and neighborhood amenity measures at the LSOA level. Our preferred annual event-study design defines treatment as the first clean-onset year in which an LSOA records at least two eligible EPC lodgements for food-and-drink establishments, after a two-year lookback with no prior entries. In this specification, pre-trend tests are not rejected in either the stacked or Sun-Abraham estimators, and log house prices rise gradually from about 0.5% in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five. The results are consistent with local amenity capitalization following commercial entry, while remaining appropriately cautious about endogenous siting and concurrent redevelopment.\n 19\t\n 20\t## 3 Empirical Strategy and Main Results\n 21\t\n 22\t### 3.1 Empirical Strategy\n 23\t\n 24\tOur main estimand is the reduced-form change in local log house prices following the first clean entry wave of food-and-drink establishments in an LSOA, relative to untreated LSOAs that remain at risk in the relevant event-time comparisons. It is best interpreted as a local capitalization estimand: it bundles direct amenity value, signaling, and related neighborhood revaluation, rather than isolating a single structural channel.\n 25\t\n 26\tThe central identification threat is endogenous siting. If businesses open where appreciation was already accelerating, post-entry coefficients will confound commercial entry with prior neighborhood change. To trace the dynamic price response while reducing that concern, we exploit the staggered timing of openings of food-and-drink establishments using EPC lodgement records for restaurants, cafes, drinking establishments, and takeaways. In the preferred specification, treatment begins in the first year an LSOA records at least two such EPC lodgements after a two-year lookback window with no prior eligible entry. Let E_{i} denote the treatment year for LSOA i (undefined for never-treated units). This clean-onset rule is intended to capture a discrete local entry wave rather than ongoing turnover. Our annual event-study specification is:\n 27\t\n 28\ty_{it}=\\alpha_{i}+\\delta_{t}+\\sum_{\\begin{subarray}{c}\\tau=-5\\\\\n 29\t\\tau\\neq-1\\end{subarray}}^{5}\\beta_{\\tau}\\,\\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\}+\\varepsilon_{it} | | | (1)\n 30\t\n 31\twhere \\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\} equals one when LSOA i is observed \\tau years relative to its treatment date, with \\tau=-1 as the omitted reference period. The coefficients \\{\\beta_{\\tau}\\} trace out the dynamic treatment effect, while the pre-period coefficients \\beta_{-5},\\ldots,\\beta_{-2} provide the main visual and joint-test check on parallel trends.\n 32\t\n 33\t#### Estimator comparisons.\n 34\t\n 35\tBecause staggered treatment timing can induce negative weighting in conventional TWFE [22], we treat the stacked design as the main estimator and compare it with a Sun and Abraham [23] interaction-weighted estimator. The point of this comparison is to check whether the post-entry path survives an alternative treatment-timing aggregation scheme, not to elevate a broad specification horse race into the main text.\n 36\t\n 37\t### 3.2 Main Event-Study Results\n 38\t\n 39\tUsing EPC lodgement records, we construct an annual design for entry of food-and-drink establishments in which treatment begins when an LSOA first records at least two eligible lodgements after a two-year clean-onset window with no prior entry. The preferred stacked sample contains 657,197 LSOA-year observations, 774 treated-role LSOAs, and 4,459 control-role LSOAs across risk sets. Treatment is distributed across sixteen cohorts from 2008 to 2023, with the largest cohort in 2009 (178 treated units) and meaningful support throughout the subsequent decade. Appendix cohort tables report the full cohort composition.\n 40\t\n 41\t#### Support across event time.\n 42\t\n 43\tTable 2 summarizes the support behind the stacked sample. Treated observations are most numerous near event time and then decline as the window moves farther into the tails, but support remains substantial even at \\tau=5 , where 546 treated observations from 11 contributing stacks remain in the estimating sample. This pattern matters for interpretation: medium-run coefficients are identified from fewer cohorts than the event-year effect, so later horizons should be read as economically informative but mechanically noisier.\n 44\t\n 45\tTable 2: Event-Time Support in the Stacked Sample\n 46\t\n 47\tEvent Time | Treated Obs. | Treated LSOAs | Contributing Stacks\n 48\t\n 49\t-5 | 572 | 572 | 14\n 50\t\n 51\t-4 | 751 | 751 | 15\n 52\t\n 53\t-3 | 769 | 769 | 16\n 54\t\n 55\t-2 | 763 | 763 | 16\n 56\t\n 57\t-1 | 761 | 761 | 16\n 58\t\n 59\t0 | 756 | 756 | 16\n 60\t\n 61\t1 | 689 | 689 | 15\n 62\t\n 63\t2 | 648 | 648 | 14\n 64\t\n 65\t3 | 610 | 610 | 13\n 66\t\n 67\t4 | 586 | 586 | 12\n 68\t\n 69\t5 | 546 | 546 | 11\n 70\t\n 71\t•\n 72\t\n 73\tNotes: Support counts from the preferred clean-onset stacked design for entry of food-and-drink establishments. “Contributing stacks” records how many cohort-specific risk sets identify each event-time coefficient.\n 74\t\n 75\t#### Headline dynamic pattern.\n 76\t\n 77\tFigure 2 reports the preferred clean-onset event-study path and overlays the event-time support behind each coefficient. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and imprecise, and the stacked joint pre-trend test does not reject ( p=0.241 ). The estimated effect is close to zero at event time and then turns positive: the stacked coefficient is 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.018 at \\tau=2 , 0.037 at \\tau=4 , and 0.034 by \\tau=5 . Interpreted in logs, these magnitudes correspond to a gradual appreciation of roughly 0.5% in the event year and about 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The pattern is notable for its slope as much as for its level: prices do not jump immediately, but instead drift upward as the new commercial entry becomes part of the local amenity bundle.\n 78\t\n 79\t#### Estimator comparison and design diagnostics.\n 80\t\n 81\tFor the preferred clean-onset design, the Sun-Abraham interaction-weighted path closely tracks the stacked path in the post-treatment period. The Sun coefficients are 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.016 at \\tau=2 , 0.036 at \\tau=4 , and 0.033 at \\tau=5 , and its joint pre-trend test is not rejected ( p=0.472 ). Table 3 places the preferred specification next to two nearby alternatives. Relative to the broader baseline threshold-2 design, clean-onset imposes more discipline on timing while preserving a similar medium-run magnitude. Relative to the neighbor-buffer variant, it avoids an extra layer of spatial pruning that mechanically strengthens post-treatment coefficients but yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore retain the unbuffered clean-onset design as the headline specification.\n 82\t\n 83\tTable 3: Main Design Diagnostics for the Headline Event-Study Specification\n 84\t\n 85\t[Extract editor's note: the header row of Table 3 is garbled in the HTML rendering; the six columns are, in order: Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend p | Sun pre-trend p | tau=4 coefficient | tau=5 coefficient.]\n 86\t\n 87\tp p \\tau=4 \\tau=5 Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend | Sun pre-trend | |\n 88\t\n 89\tBaseline threshold-2 | 1,084 | 0.342 | 0.223 | 0.029 | 0.022\n 90\t\n 91\tClean-onset threshold-2 | 774 | 0.241 | 0.472 | 0.037 | 0.034\n 92\t\n 93\tClean-onset + neighbor buffer | 774 | 0.126 | 0.239 | 0.042 | 0.040\n 94\t\n 95\t•\n 96\t\n 97\tNotes: Entries in the last two columns are log-point coefficients relative to \\tau=-1 . The baseline row uses the broader threshold-2 treatment without the clean-onset restriction. The preferred row uses the clean-onset threshold-2 treatment with a two-year lookback window and no prior eligible entry. The buffer row applies a first-order neighboring-control exclusion to the preferred design.\n 98\t\n 99\tFigure 2: Preferred clean-onset event-study estimates for entry of food-and-drink establishments. Point estimates are reported relative to the year before treatment ( \\tau=-1 ), which is shown as the open reference marker at zero, and plotted with 95% confidence intervals. Gray bars report the number of treated observations contributing to each event-time coefficient. The estimated path rises gradually from near zero in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five after entry.\n 100\t\n 101\t### 3.3 Robustness Checks\n 102\t\n 103\tThe main robustness question is whether the positive post-entry path survives plausible threats from spatial spillovers and concurrent redevelopment. Excluding first-order neighboring controls leaves the qualitative pattern intact and slightly strengthens post-treatment coefficients, but it also yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore treat the buffer variant as a supporting robustness check rather than as a replacement for the headline design. Planning-start outcome diagnostics are reported in Appendix Table 5 and are not used to select the preferred specification.\n 104\t\n 105\t## 5 Conclusion\n 106\t\n 107\tThis paper studies whether entry of food-and-drink establishments is followed by changes in neighborhood house prices in Greater London. In the preferred clean-onset event-study estimates, areas exposed to entry experience a gradual post-entry appreciation that reaches roughly 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The evidence is consistent with local amenity capitalization following visible commercial change, while also underscoring the need for continued falsification and treatment-validation work before treating the dynamic magnitudes as fully settled.","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"ffc0dbaf-7dc6-44d8-8c81-fd3909ad07fe","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}35{"parentUuid":"ac5008ad-40f9-4652-8991-df8d000e4f64","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrZUY1ygFTjfqNnMwXX","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01EW5jhXCu1qgA7VmVwTy4hi","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt","description":"Read source R4"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":10460,"cache_read_input_tokens":10970,"output_tokens":746,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":466},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":10460},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":2,"requestId":"req_011CgXrZUFPzw5XcAMLmJL7X","requestRef":"8212b22c-c743-4672-b188-c1575a259caa","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"05c3e3d2-ebfe-41a7-b9e3-560d350f0f95","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:17:43.508Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}36{"parentUuid":"05c3e3d2-ebfe-41a7-b9e3-560d350f0f95","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"a877fa16-3d14-4219-9764-c00485adc5dc","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01EW5jhXCu1qgA7VmVwTy4hi","type":"tool_result","content":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2505.04555v3\n 2\tTitle: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n 3\tAuthors: Hayato Kanayama; Sho Miyaji; Suguru Otani\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], version 1 submitted 7 May 2025, version 2 submitted 27 May 2025, version 3 (this extract) submitted 16 Mar 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2505.04555v3 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2b68299cbc49f208a0340bd233007fe922f6d4245e0a642db526662d359789b)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Appendix A.1 'Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages' in full (Table 2 with its note and the discussion paragraph).\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-7, the other appendices, the references. The 'Current version' date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n 13\t\n 14\tHayato Kanayama (Waseda University), Sho Miyaji (Yale University), Suguru Otani (The University of Tokyo)\n 15\t\n 16\t###### Abstract\n 17\t\n 18\tHow labor markets adjust immediately after minimum wage hikes remains an open, policy-relevant question. This paper studies short-run minimum-wage effects in Japan’s spot labor market using Timee data and a wage-bin difference-in-differences design. We find a 2% employment decline in affected bins, driven by reduced vacancy creation rather than worker supply. Effects are more negative where the minimum-wage bite is higher and in low-wage occupations. Using job descriptions and amenity information, we document reallocation across job types: postings shift toward greater amenity provision and experienced-worker targeting, while female-targeted descriptions become less common, suggesting short-run labor-demand adjustments may foreshadow longer-run reallocation.\n 19\t\n 20\tKeywords: minimum wage, employment, job amenities, gig workers, spot work, difference-in-differences\n 21\t\n 22\tJEL codes: J21, J23, J38, J88\n 23\t\n 24\t## Appendix A Additional Analysis\n 25\t\n 26\t### A.1 Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages\n 27\t\n 28\tFollowing the method of Cengiz et al. (2019), we estimate (i) the elasticity of employment with respect to minimum wages and (ii) the employment elasticity with respect to the affected wages.\n 29\t\n 30\tTable 2: Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment and Wages\n 31\t\n 32\t| Estimate (SE)\n 33\t\n 34\tMissing jobs below new MW | -0.03\n 35\t\n 36\t| (0.006)\n 37\t\n 38\tExcess jobs above new MW | 0.012\n 39\t\n 40\t| (0.002)\n 41\t\n 42\tAffected wages | 0.366\n 43\t\n 44\t| (0.171)\n 45\t\n 46\tAffected employment | -0.268\n 47\t\n 48\t| (0.091)\n 49\t\n 50\tEmployment elasticity w.r.t MW | -0.388\n 51\t\n 52\t| (0.132)\n 53\t\n 54\tEmp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage | -0.732\n 55\t\n 56\t| (0.091)\n 57\t\n 58\tJob below new MW | 0.068\n 59\t\n 60\t% MW changes | 0.047\n 61\t\n 62\tNote: The table reports the effects of a minimum wage increase based on the event study analysis exploiting 47 prefecture-level minimum wage changes in 2023 (i.e., about 4% minimum wage increase). The table reports six-month averaged post-treatment estimates on missing jobs up to 100 JPY below the new minimum wage, excess jobs at and up to 300 JPY above it, employment, and wages. Robust standard errors in parentheses are clustered by wage bins separated by 10 JPY.\n 63\t\n 64\tTable 2 reports six-month–averaged post-treatment effects for the baseline specification depicted in Figure 7.\n 65\tThe magnitude of missing jobs below new minimum wages exceeds the magnitude of excess jobs above new minimum wages in the six-month window.\n 66\tThe estimated employment elasticity with respect to the minimum wage is - 0.388 , which is consistent with Figure 7. Unlike the findings of Cengiz et al. (2019) and Dube and Zipperer (2024), our own-wage employment elasticity is - 0.732 , indicating a larger (absolute) employment response to affected wages than the median estimate (- 0.13 ) reported by Dube and Lindner (2024).","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"f3547784-4e0b-44b0-8764-bc1243127661","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:17:43.520Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2505.04555v3\n 2\tTitle: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n 3\tAuthors: Hayato Kanayama; Sho Miyaji; Suguru Otani\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], version 1 submitted 7 May 2025, version 2 submitted 27 May 2025, version 3 (this extract) submitted 16 Mar 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2505.04555v3 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2b68299cbc49f208a0340bd233007fe922f6d4245e0a642db526662d359789b)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Appendix A.1 'Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages' in full (Table 2 with its note and the discussion paragraph).\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-7, the other appendices, the references. The 'Current version' date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n 13\t\n 14\tHayato Kanayama (Waseda University), Sho Miyaji (Yale University), Suguru Otani (The University of Tokyo)\n 15\t\n 16\t###### Abstract\n 17\t\n 18\tHow labor markets adjust immediately after minimum wage hikes remains an open, policy-relevant question. This paper studies short-run minimum-wage effects in Japan’s spot labor market using Timee data and a wage-bin difference-in-differences design. We find a 2% employment decline in affected bins, driven by reduced vacancy creation rather than worker supply. Effects are more negative where the minimum-wage bite is higher and in low-wage occupations. Using job descriptions and amenity information, we document reallocation across job types: postings shift toward greater amenity provision and experienced-worker targeting, while female-targeted descriptions become less common, suggesting short-run labor-demand adjustments may foreshadow longer-run reallocation.\n 19\t\n 20\tKeywords: minimum wage, employment, job amenities, gig workers, spot work, difference-in-differences\n 21\t\n 22\tJEL codes: J21, J23, J38, J88\n 23\t\n 24\t## Appendix A Additional Analysis\n 25\t\n 26\t### A.1 Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages\n 27\t\n 28\tFollowing the method of Cengiz et al. (2019), we estimate (i) the elasticity of employment with respect to minimum wages and (ii) the employment elasticity with respect to the affected wages.\n 29\t\n 30\tTable 2: Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment and Wages\n 31\t\n 32\t| Estimate (SE)\n 33\t\n 34\tMissing jobs below new MW | -0.03\n 35\t\n 36\t| (0.006)\n 37\t\n 38\tExcess jobs above new MW | 0.012\n 39\t\n 40\t| (0.002)\n 41\t\n 42\tAffected wages | 0.366\n 43\t\n 44\t| (0.171)\n 45\t\n 46\tAffected employment | -0.268\n 47\t\n 48\t| (0.091)\n 49\t\n 50\tEmployment elasticity w.r.t MW | -0.388\n 51\t\n 52\t| (0.132)\n 53\t\n 54\tEmp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage | -0.732\n 55\t\n 56\t| (0.091)\n 57\t\n 58\tJob below new MW | 0.068\n 59\t\n 60\t% MW changes | 0.047\n 61\t\n 62\tNote: The table reports the effects of a minimum wage increase based on the event study analysis exploiting 47 prefecture-level minimum wage changes in 2023 (i.e., about 4% minimum wage increase). The table reports six-month averaged post-treatment estimates on missing jobs up to 100 JPY below the new minimum wage, excess jobs at and up to 300 JPY above it, employment, and wages. Robust standard errors in parentheses are clustered by wage bins separated by 10 JPY.\n 63\t\n 64\tTable 2 reports six-month–averaged post-treatment effects for the baseline specification depicted in Figure 7.\n 65\tThe magnitude of missing jobs below new minimum wages exceeds the magnitude of excess jobs above new minimum wages in the six-month window.\n 66\tThe estimated employment elasticity with respect to the minimum wage is - 0.388 , which is consistent with Figure 7. Unlike the findings of Cengiz et al. (2019) and Dube and Zipperer (2024), our own-wage employment elasticity is - 0.732 , indicating a larger (absolute) employment response to affected wages than the median estimate (- 0.13 ) reported by Dube and Lindner (2024).","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"05c3e3d2-ebfe-41a7-b9e3-560d350f0f95","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}37{"parentUuid":"f3547784-4e0b-44b0-8764-bc1243127661","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrZUY1ygFTjfqNnMwXX","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01Mj9XDUZNpMvKMAqhcZsrJX","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt","description":"Read source R5"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":10460,"cache_read_input_tokens":10970,"output_tokens":746,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":466},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":10460},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":3,"requestId":"req_011CgXrZUFPzw5XcAMLmJL7X","requestRef":"8212b22c-c743-4672-b188-c1575a259caa","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"52fefa50-7b01-4acd-8eb4-4040dc356eef","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:17:43.995Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}38{"parentUuid":"52fefa50-7b01-4acd-8eb4-4040dc356eef","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"a877fa16-3d14-4219-9764-c00485adc5dc","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01Mj9XDUZNpMvKMAqhcZsrJX","type":"tool_result","content":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2510.03658v1\n 2\tTitle: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n 3\tAuthors: Selidji Caroline Tossou\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN], submitted 4 Oct 2025 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2510.03658v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2d9f04dcf4789983c28f97dc13705eb2d6ed583c4860c940f921d7b549aea59)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, author and abstract; Section 4.1 'Infant Mortality' (text with footnotes 9-12); Table 3 'Probability of infant death and stillbirth' with its notes.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-3, 4.2-6, Tables 1-2 and 4-16, the references. The date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n 13\t\n 14\tSelidji Caroline Tossou (University of Wisconsin-Madison)\n 15\t\n 16\t###### Abstract\n 17\t\n 18\tThis paper evaluates the causal effect of the access to Benin’s free cesarean section policy on females and their children. I use a large sample of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for West African countries and analyze how the exemption of the cesarean section user fees for females in Benin directly impacts maternal and infant mortality, family size decisions, and labor market participation. I use a Difference in Differences approach and find that having access to the free cesarean section policy significantly reduces the number of stillbirths and infant mortality by 0.0855 (a 18.79 percentage change). Second, for the surviving children, I find that access to the free cesarean section increases the likelihood of maternal mortality by 0.00465 (a 5.21 percentage change). The policy is effective at reducing infant mortality and saving the newborn. However, it harms the mother’s health which translates to lower fertility after the first birth and decreased maternal labor supply post-birth.\n 19\t\n 20\t## 4 Findings\n 21\t\n 22\t### 4.1 Infant Mortality\n 23\t\n 24\tI first investigate the infant death rate under the policy.\n 25\tFigure 15 shows that the exemption of cesarean section fees in Benin leads to an increase in the use of the service. What are the implications for infant mortality? I use a Difference in Differences specification to explore the possible impacts of access to the free cesarean section on infant mortality. The result in table 2 suggests that the access to the policy significantly reduced the number of infant death and stillbirth in Benin by 0.0855 (this represents a percentage change of 18.79 percent^9^9\n 26\t9\n 27\t\n 28\tI divide the estimate of beta by the mean of the dependent variable: -0.0855/0.455=-0.1879 ). This means that for over 100 newborns who would have died in the absence of the policy, approximately 18 are saved because of the access to the exemption of the cesarean section user fees. This result is promising and aligns with the goals of the free cesarean section policy, which primarily intends to lower the infant mortality in Benin. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first paper that evaluates the causal effect of free cesarean section policy on Benin’s infant mortality. Wealth and education attainment play a role in decreasing infant mortality. This can be explained by the fact that the free cesarean section covers only the surgery and a medicine kit for the mother. It does not cover prenatal and antepartum checkups. So a pregnant woman who has the means is more likely to identify and prevent any problems related to the pregnancy and the newborn’s health. Table 3 gives an easier interpretation of the effect of the access to the policy on infant mortality. In this table, the outcome of interest is a binary variable that takes value 1 if a female has an infant death or a pregnancy loss in the three years preceding the data collection and 0 otherwise. Thus, I interpret the coefficient \\hat{\\beta_{1}} as the effect of the policy on the likelihood of infant mortality. Using my most preferred specification (Column (4)), the result suggests that access to the policy decreases the likelihood of infant death or pregnancy loss of a female in Benin by 0.0962. Compared to the mean of the dependent variable, this effect represents a percentage change of 36.85 percent. To see which female category is driving this result, I decompose the effect by age group, wealth index, and education attainment.\n 29\t\n 30\tThe first panel of table 4 presents the stratification by age group. The policy is more effective at reducing infant mortality for females older than 25. For females between 15 and 24, the probability of infant mortality is reduced by only 4.65 percent compared to a reduction of 30.85 percent for a female between 25 and 34, a reduction of 43.53 percent for females between 35 and 44, and the highest decrease of 47.25 percent for females between 45 and 49^10^10\n 31\t10\n 32\t\n 33\tThese are the percentage change of infant mortality obtained by dividing the coefficient estimated by the mean of the dependent variable. The same exercise is done by using the wealth index of females. The results in the second panel of table 4 suggest that the effect of the free cesarean section on infant mortality is the biggest for females who are the poorest, poorer, or have a middle wealth index^11^11\n 34\t11\n 35\t\n 36\tThe modalities Poorest, Poorer, Middle, Richer, and Richest are pre-computed in the DHS data (46.36 percent, 35.84 percent, and 41.72 percent respectively). For the richer and richest females, the effect of the policy is a percentage change reduction of 28.52 percent and 16.47 percent on the likelihood of infant death. The last panel of table 4 gives a stratification by education level. The highest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-39.07 percent) is for females who have no education level. The lowest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-1.4 percent) is for females who have higher education levels.^12^12\n 37\t12\n 38\t\n 39\tI test the difference between all the coefficients and they are all significant and statistically different\n 40\t\n 41\tTo summarize, I find that access to the free cesarean section in Benin reduces the likelihood of infant mortality on average by 36.85 percent. The policy is more effective at reducing infant death for older females, females who are below the middle wealth index, and females who have no education.\n 42\t\n 43\tTable 3: Probability of infant death and stillbirth\n 44\t\n 45\t| Probability of Infant death or stillbirth | | |\n 46\t\n 47\t| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4)\n 48\t\n 49\tTreatment | -0.0911 | -0.0908 | -0.0961 | -0.0962\n 50\t\n 51\t| (0.0113) | (0.0113) | (0.0126) | (0.0129)\n 52\t\n 53\tEducation Attainment | -0.0578 | -0.0576 | -0.0443 | -0.0443\n 54\t\n 55\t| (0.00346) | (0.00340) | (0.00415) | (0.00420)\n 56\t\n 57\tAge of Female | 0.0168 | 0.0170 | 0.0171 | 0.0171\n 58\t\n 59\t| (0.00108) | (0.00112) | (0.00104) | (0.00108)\n 60\t\n 61\tAge of Partner | | -0.000425 | -0.000448 | -0.000435\n 62\t\n 63\t| | (0.000183) | (0.000151) | (0.000152)\n 64\t\n 65\tWealth Index | | | -0.0302 | -0.0302\n 66\t\n 67\t| | | (0.00277) | (0.00277)\n 68\t\n 69\tMarital Status | | | | 0.00128\n 70\t\n 71\t| | | | (0.00421)\n 72\t\n 73\tCountry Fixed Effect | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n 74\t\n 75\tTime Fixed Effect. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n 76\t\n 77\t_cons | -0.129 | -0.114 | -0.0400 | -0.0406\n 78\t\n 79\t| (0.0323) | (0.0298) | (0.0266) | (0.0255)\n 80\t\n 81\tObservations | 196554 | 196424 | 196424 | 196423\n 82\t\n 83\t% Change | -0.3490 | -0.3478 | -0.3681 | -0.3685\n 84\t\n 85\tR-squared | 0.196 | 0.197 | 0.204 | 0.204\n 86\t\n 87\tMean Dep. Var. | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261\n 88\t\n 89\tStandard errors in parentheses; Standard errors are clustered at the household level. | | | |\n 90\t\n 91\tDep. Var. Mean is the dependent variable mean. Treatment is Benin Females after 2008 | | | |","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"183eb9f8-7b5c-42f2-ad81-50e296f2beb0","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:17:44.008Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2510.03658v1\n 2\tTitle: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n 3\tAuthors: Selidji Caroline Tossou\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN], submitted 4 Oct 2025 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2510.03658v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2d9f04dcf4789983c28f97dc13705eb2d6ed583c4860c940f921d7b549aea59)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, author and abstract; Section 4.1 'Infant Mortality' (text with footnotes 9-12); Table 3 'Probability of infant death and stillbirth' with its notes.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-3, 4.2-6, Tables 1-2 and 4-16, the references. The date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n 13\t\n 14\tSelidji Caroline Tossou (University of Wisconsin-Madison)\n 15\t\n 16\t###### Abstract\n 17\t\n 18\tThis paper evaluates the causal effect of the access to Benin’s free cesarean section policy on females and their children. I use a large sample of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for West African countries and analyze how the exemption of the cesarean section user fees for females in Benin directly impacts maternal and infant mortality, family size decisions, and labor market participation. I use a Difference in Differences approach and find that having access to the free cesarean section policy significantly reduces the number of stillbirths and infant mortality by 0.0855 (a 18.79 percentage change). Second, for the surviving children, I find that access to the free cesarean section increases the likelihood of maternal mortality by 0.00465 (a 5.21 percentage change). The policy is effective at reducing infant mortality and saving the newborn. However, it harms the mother’s health which translates to lower fertility after the first birth and decreased maternal labor supply post-birth.\n 19\t\n 20\t## 4 Findings\n 21\t\n 22\t### 4.1 Infant Mortality\n 23\t\n 24\tI first investigate the infant death rate under the policy.\n 25\tFigure 15 shows that the exemption of cesarean section fees in Benin leads to an increase in the use of the service. What are the implications for infant mortality? I use a Difference in Differences specification to explore the possible impacts of access to the free cesarean section on infant mortality. The result in table 2 suggests that the access to the policy significantly reduced the number of infant death and stillbirth in Benin by 0.0855 (this represents a percentage change of 18.79 percent^9^9\n 26\t9\n 27\t\n 28\tI divide the estimate of beta by the mean of the dependent variable: -0.0855/0.455=-0.1879 ). This means that for over 100 newborns who would have died in the absence of the policy, approximately 18 are saved because of the access to the exemption of the cesarean section user fees. This result is promising and aligns with the goals of the free cesarean section policy, which primarily intends to lower the infant mortality in Benin. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first paper that evaluates the causal effect of free cesarean section policy on Benin’s infant mortality. Wealth and education attainment play a role in decreasing infant mortality. This can be explained by the fact that the free cesarean section covers only the surgery and a medicine kit for the mother. It does not cover prenatal and antepartum checkups. So a pregnant woman who has the means is more likely to identify and prevent any problems related to the pregnancy and the newborn’s health. Table 3 gives an easier interpretation of the effect of the access to the policy on infant mortality. In this table, the outcome of interest is a binary variable that takes value 1 if a female has an infant death or a pregnancy loss in the three years preceding the data collection and 0 otherwise. Thus, I interpret the coefficient \\hat{\\beta_{1}} as the effect of the policy on the likelihood of infant mortality. Using my most preferred specification (Column (4)), the result suggests that access to the policy decreases the likelihood of infant death or pregnancy loss of a female in Benin by 0.0962. Compared to the mean of the dependent variable, this effect represents a percentage change of 36.85 percent. To see which female category is driving this result, I decompose the effect by age group, wealth index, and education attainment.\n 29\t\n 30\tThe first panel of table 4 presents the stratification by age group. The policy is more effective at reducing infant mortality for females older than 25. For females between 15 and 24, the probability of infant mortality is reduced by only 4.65 percent compared to a reduction of 30.85 percent for a female between 25 and 34, a reduction of 43.53 percent for females between 35 and 44, and the highest decrease of 47.25 percent for females between 45 and 49^10^10\n 31\t10\n 32\t\n 33\tThese are the percentage change of infant mortality obtained by dividing the coefficient estimated by the mean of the dependent variable. The same exercise is done by using the wealth index of females. The results in the second panel of table 4 suggest that the effect of the free cesarean section on infant mortality is the biggest for females who are the poorest, poorer, or have a middle wealth index^11^11\n 34\t11\n 35\t\n 36\tThe modalities Poorest, Poorer, Middle, Richer, and Richest are pre-computed in the DHS data (46.36 percent, 35.84 percent, and 41.72 percent respectively). For the richer and richest females, the effect of the policy is a percentage change reduction of 28.52 percent and 16.47 percent on the likelihood of infant death. The last panel of table 4 gives a stratification by education level. The highest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-39.07 percent) is for females who have no education level. The lowest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-1.4 percent) is for females who have higher education levels.^12^12\n 37\t12\n 38\t\n 39\tI test the difference between all the coefficients and they are all significant and statistically different\n 40\t\n 41\tTo summarize, I find that access to the free cesarean section in Benin reduces the likelihood of infant mortality on average by 36.85 percent. The policy is more effective at reducing infant death for older females, females who are below the middle wealth index, and females who have no education.\n 42\t\n 43\tTable 3: Probability of infant death and stillbirth\n 44\t\n 45\t| Probability of Infant death or stillbirth | | |\n 46\t\n 47\t| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4)\n 48\t\n 49\tTreatment | -0.0911 | -0.0908 | -0.0961 | -0.0962\n 50\t\n 51\t| (0.0113) | (0.0113) | (0.0126) | (0.0129)\n 52\t\n 53\tEducation Attainment | -0.0578 | -0.0576 | -0.0443 | -0.0443\n 54\t\n 55\t| (0.00346) | (0.00340) | (0.00415) | (0.00420)\n 56\t\n 57\tAge of Female | 0.0168 | 0.0170 | 0.0171 | 0.0171\n 58\t\n 59\t| (0.00108) | (0.00112) | (0.00104) | (0.00108)\n 60\t\n 61\tAge of Partner | | -0.000425 | -0.000448 | -0.000435\n 62\t\n 63\t| | (0.000183) | (0.000151) | (0.000152)\n 64\t\n 65\tWealth Index | | | -0.0302 | -0.0302\n 66\t\n 67\t| | | (0.00277) | (0.00277)\n 68\t\n 69\tMarital Status | | | | 0.00128\n 70\t\n 71\t| | | | (0.00421)\n 72\t\n 73\tCountry Fixed Effect | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n 74\t\n 75\tTime Fixed Effect. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n 76\t\n 77\t_cons | -0.129 | -0.114 | -0.0400 | -0.0406\n 78\t\n 79\t| (0.0323) | (0.0298) | (0.0266) | (0.0255)\n 80\t\n 81\tObservations | 196554 | 196424 | 196424 | 196423\n 82\t\n 83\t% Change | -0.3490 | -0.3478 | -0.3681 | -0.3685\n 84\t\n 85\tR-squared | 0.196 | 0.197 | 0.204 | 0.204\n 86\t\n 87\tMean Dep. Var. | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261\n 88\t\n 89\tStandard errors in parentheses; Standard errors are clustered at the household level. | | | |\n 90\t\n 91\tDep. Var. Mean is the dependent variable mean. Treatment is Benin Females after 2008 | | | |","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"52fefa50-7b01-4acd-8eb4-4040dc356eef","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}39{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","hash":"6ca3d7f2f5bc5d6efc30e105edae103f17a7d29db55b6c007365eb9796d76f03","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01C7aEiLhuY1TGnP35gspqLR","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt","description":"Read source R3"}},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01EW5jhXCu1qgA7VmVwTy4hi","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt","description":"Read source R4"}},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01Mj9XDUZNpMvKMAqhcZsrJX","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat -n data/sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt","description":"Read source R5"}}]}}40{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","hash":"1bdcb3ba113f81d4d06ef3842ad572495a92de0c3b73cea70c1ee8d24784f12c","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01C7aEiLhuY1TGnP35gspqLR","type":"tool_result","content":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2603.03260v2\n 2\tTitle: Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n 3\tAuthors: Wanqi Liu; Rong Zhao\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], version 1 submitted 3 Mar 2026, version 2 (this extract) submitted 2 Apr 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2603.03260v2 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: 6e9a3c5fead449da09a981b0bacc36e1a4f652750caef972a173c3193525c327)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Section 3 'Empirical Strategy and Main Results' in full (equation (1), Table 2, Table 3 with notes, Figure 2 caption, Section 3.3); Section 5 'Conclusion'.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-2 and 4, the appendix (Tables 4-5), the references.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n 13\t\n 14\tWanqi Liu, Rong Zhao (Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London)\n 15\t\n 16\t###### Abstract\n 17\t\n 18\tRestaurants, cafes, pubs, and takeaways are among the most visible markers of neighborhood change, yet whether their arrival is capitalised into nearby housing values remains empirically unsettled. We assemble a London-wide panel linking Land Registry prices, non-domestic EPC lodgement timings for food-and-drink establishments, and neighborhood amenity measures at the LSOA level. Our preferred annual event-study design defines treatment as the first clean-onset year in which an LSOA records at least two eligible EPC lodgements for food-and-drink establishments, after a two-year lookback with no prior entries. In this specification, pre-trend tests are not rejected in either the stacked or Sun-Abraham estimators, and log house prices rise gradually from about 0.5% in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five. The results are consistent with local amenity capitalization following commercial entry, while remaining appropriately cautious about endogenous siting and concurrent redevelopment.\n 19\t\n 20\t## 3 Empirical Strategy and Main Results\n 21\t\n 22\t### 3.1 Empirical Strategy\n 23\t\n 24\tOur main estimand is the reduced-form change in local log house prices following the first clean entry wave of food-and-drink establishments in an LSOA, relative to untreated LSOAs that remain at risk in the relevant event-time comparisons. It is best interpreted as a local capitalization estimand: it bundles direct amenity value, signaling, and related neighborhood revaluation, rather than isolating a single structural channel.\n 25\t\n 26\tThe central identification threat is endogenous siting. If businesses open where appreciation was already accelerating, post-entry coefficients will confound commercial entry with prior neighborhood change. To trace the dynamic price response while reducing that concern, we exploit the staggered timing of openings of food-and-drink establishments using EPC lodgement records for restaurants, cafes, drinking establishments, and takeaways. In the preferred specification, treatment begins in the first year an LSOA records at least two such EPC lodgements after a two-year lookback window with no prior eligible entry. Let E_{i} denote the treatment year for LSOA i (undefined for never-treated units). This clean-onset rule is intended to capture a discrete local entry wave rather than ongoing turnover. Our annual event-study specification is:\n 27\t\n 28\ty_{it}=\\alpha_{i}+\\delta_{t}+\\sum_{\\begin{subarray}{c}\\tau=-5\\\\\n 29\t\\tau\\neq-1\\end{subarray}}^{5}\\beta_{\\tau}\\,\\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\}+\\varepsilon_{it} | | | (1)\n 30\t\n 31\twhere \\mathbf{1}\\{t-E_{i}=\\tau\\} equals one when LSOA i is observed \\tau years relative to its treatment date, with \\tau=-1 as the omitted reference period. The coefficients \\{\\beta_{\\tau}\\} trace out the dynamic treatment effect, while the pre-period coefficients \\beta_{-5},\\ldots,\\beta_{-2} provide the main visual and joint-test check on parallel trends.\n 32\t\n 33\t#### Estimator comparisons.\n 34\t\n 35\tBecause staggered treatment timing can induce negative weighting in conventional TWFE [22], we treat the stacked design as the main estimator and compare it with a Sun and Abraham [23] interaction-weighted estimator. The point of this comparison is to check whether the post-entry path survives an alternative treatment-timing aggregation scheme, not to elevate a broad specification horse race into the main text.\n 36\t\n 37\t### 3.2 Main Event-Study Results\n 38\t\n 39\tUsing EPC lodgement records, we construct an annual design for entry of food-and-drink establishments in which treatment begins when an LSOA first records at least two eligible lodgements after a two-year clean-onset window with no prior entry. The preferred stacked sample contains 657,197 LSOA-year observations, 774 treated-role LSOAs, and 4,459 control-role LSOAs across risk sets. Treatment is distributed across sixteen cohorts from 2008 to 2023, with the largest cohort in 2009 (178 treated units) and meaningful support throughout the subsequent decade. Appendix cohort tables report the full cohort composition.\n 40\t\n 41\t#### Support across event time.\n 42\t\n 43\tTable 2 summarizes the support behind the stacked sample. Treated observations are most numerous near event time and then decline as the window moves farther into the tails, but support remains substantial even at \\tau=5 , where 546 treated observations from 11 contributing stacks remain in the estimating sample. This pattern matters for interpretation: medium-run coefficients are identified from fewer cohorts than the event-year effect, so later horizons should be read as economically informative but mechanically noisier.\n 44\t\n 45\tTable 2: Event-Time Support in the Stacked Sample\n 46\t\n 47\tEvent Time | Treated Obs. | Treated LSOAs | Contributing Stacks\n 48\t\n 49\t-5 | 572 | 572 | 14\n 50\t\n 51\t-4 | 751 | 751 | 15\n 52\t\n 53\t-3 | 769 | 769 | 16\n 54\t\n 55\t-2 | 763 | 763 | 16\n 56\t\n 57\t-1 | 761 | 761 | 16\n 58\t\n 59\t0 | 756 | 756 | 16\n 60\t\n 61\t1 | 689 | 689 | 15\n 62\t\n 63\t2 | 648 | 648 | 14\n 64\t\n 65\t3 | 610 | 610 | 13\n 66\t\n 67\t4 | 586 | 586 | 12\n 68\t\n 69\t5 | 546 | 546 | 11\n 70\t\n 71\t•\n 72\t\n 73\tNotes: Support counts from the preferred clean-onset stacked design for entry of food-and-drink establishments. “Contributing stacks” records how many cohort-specific risk sets identify each event-time coefficient.\n 74\t\n 75\t#### Headline dynamic pattern.\n 76\t\n 77\tFigure 2 reports the preferred clean-onset event-study path and overlays the event-time support behind each coefficient. Pre-treatment coefficients are small and imprecise, and the stacked joint pre-trend test does not reject ( p=0.241 ). The estimated effect is close to zero at event time and then turns positive: the stacked coefficient is 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.018 at \\tau=2 , 0.037 at \\tau=4 , and 0.034 by \\tau=5 . Interpreted in logs, these magnitudes correspond to a gradual appreciation of roughly 0.5% in the event year and about 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The pattern is notable for its slope as much as for its level: prices do not jump immediately, but instead drift upward as the new commercial entry becomes part of the local amenity bundle.\n 78\t\n 79\t#### Estimator comparison and design diagnostics.\n 80\t\n 81\tFor the preferred clean-onset design, the Sun-Abraham interaction-weighted path closely tracks the stacked path in the post-treatment period. The Sun coefficients are 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.016 at \\tau=2 , 0.036 at \\tau=4 , and 0.033 at \\tau=5 , and its joint pre-trend test is not rejected ( p=0.472 ). Table 3 places the preferred specification next to two nearby alternatives. Relative to the broader baseline threshold-2 design, clean-onset imposes more discipline on timing while preserving a similar medium-run magnitude. Relative to the neighbor-buffer variant, it avoids an extra layer of spatial pruning that mechanically strengthens post-treatment coefficients but yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore retain the unbuffered clean-onset design as the headline specification.\n 82\t\n 83\tTable 3: Main Design Diagnostics for the Headline Event-Study Specification\n 84\t\n 85\t[Extract editor's note: the header row of Table 3 is garbled in the HTML rendering; the six columns are, in order: Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend p | Sun pre-trend p | tau=4 coefficient | tau=5 coefficient.]\n 86\t\n 87\tp p \\tau=4 \\tau=5 Specification | Treated-role LSOAs | Stacked pre-trend | Sun pre-trend | |\n 88\t\n 89\tBaseline threshold-2 | 1,084 | 0.342 | 0.223 | 0.029 | 0.022\n 90\t\n 91\tClean-onset threshold-2 | 774 | 0.241 | 0.472 | 0.037 | 0.034\n 92\t\n 93\tClean-onset + neighbor buffer | 774 | 0.126 | 0.239 | 0.042 | 0.040\n 94\t\n 95\t•\n 96\t\n 97\tNotes: Entries in the last two columns are log-point coefficients relative to \\tau=-1 . The baseline row uses the broader threshold-2 treatment without the clean-onset restriction. The preferred row uses the clean-onset threshold-2 treatment with a two-year lookback window and no prior eligible entry. The buffer row applies a first-order neighboring-control exclusion to the preferred design.\n 98\t\n 99\tFigure 2: Preferred clean-onset event-study estimates for entry of food-and-drink establishments. Point estimates are reported relative to the year before treatment ( \\tau=-1 ), which is shown as the open reference marker at zero, and plotted with 95% confidence intervals. Gray bars report the number of treated observations contributing to each event-time coefficient. The estimated path rises gradually from near zero in the event year to roughly 3.4–3.7% by years four and five after entry.\n 100\t\n 101\t### 3.3 Robustness Checks\n 102\t\n 103\tThe main robustness question is whether the positive post-entry path survives plausible threats from spatial spillovers and concurrent redevelopment. Excluding first-order neighboring controls leaves the qualitative pattern intact and slightly strengthens post-treatment coefficients, but it also yields tighter pre-trend p -values. We therefore treat the buffer variant as a supporting robustness check rather than as a replacement for the headline design. Planning-start outcome diagnostics are reported in Appendix Table 5 and are not used to select the preferred specification.\n 104\t\n 105\t## 5 Conclusion\n 106\t\n 107\tThis paper studies whether entry of food-and-drink establishments is followed by changes in neighborhood house prices in Greater London. In the preferred clean-onset event-study estimates, areas exposed to entry experience a gradual post-entry appreciation that reaches roughly 3.4–3.7% after four to five years. The evidence is consistent with local amenity capitalization following visible commercial change, while also underscoring the need for continued falsification and treatment-validation work before treating the dynamic magnitudes as fully settled.","is_error":false},{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01EW5jhXCu1qgA7VmVwTy4hi","type":"tool_result","content":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2505.04555v3\n 2\tTitle: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n 3\tAuthors: Hayato Kanayama; Sho Miyaji; Suguru Otani\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], version 1 submitted 7 May 2025, version 2 submitted 27 May 2025, version 3 (this extract) submitted 16 Mar 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2505.04555v3 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2b68299cbc49f208a0340bd233007fe922f6d4245e0a642db526662d359789b)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, authors and abstract; Appendix A.1 'Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages' in full (Table 2 with its note and the discussion paragraph).\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-7, the other appendices, the references. The 'Current version' date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n 13\t\n 14\tHayato Kanayama (Waseda University), Sho Miyaji (Yale University), Suguru Otani (The University of Tokyo)\n 15\t\n 16\t###### Abstract\n 17\t\n 18\tHow labor markets adjust immediately after minimum wage hikes remains an open, policy-relevant question. This paper studies short-run minimum-wage effects in Japan’s spot labor market using Timee data and a wage-bin difference-in-differences design. We find a 2% employment decline in affected bins, driven by reduced vacancy creation rather than worker supply. Effects are more negative where the minimum-wage bite is higher and in low-wage occupations. Using job descriptions and amenity information, we document reallocation across job types: postings shift toward greater amenity provision and experienced-worker targeting, while female-targeted descriptions become less common, suggesting short-run labor-demand adjustments may foreshadow longer-run reallocation.\n 19\t\n 20\tKeywords: minimum wage, employment, job amenities, gig workers, spot work, difference-in-differences\n 21\t\n 22\tJEL codes: J21, J23, J38, J88\n 23\t\n 24\t## Appendix A Additional Analysis\n 25\t\n 26\t### A.1 Elasticities Related to Minimum Wages\n 27\t\n 28\tFollowing the method of Cengiz et al. (2019), we estimate (i) the elasticity of employment with respect to minimum wages and (ii) the employment elasticity with respect to the affected wages.\n 29\t\n 30\tTable 2: Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment and Wages\n 31\t\n 32\t| Estimate (SE)\n 33\t\n 34\tMissing jobs below new MW | -0.03\n 35\t\n 36\t| (0.006)\n 37\t\n 38\tExcess jobs above new MW | 0.012\n 39\t\n 40\t| (0.002)\n 41\t\n 42\tAffected wages | 0.366\n 43\t\n 44\t| (0.171)\n 45\t\n 46\tAffected employment | -0.268\n 47\t\n 48\t| (0.091)\n 49\t\n 50\tEmployment elasticity w.r.t MW | -0.388\n 51\t\n 52\t| (0.132)\n 53\t\n 54\tEmp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage | -0.732\n 55\t\n 56\t| (0.091)\n 57\t\n 58\tJob below new MW | 0.068\n 59\t\n 60\t% MW changes | 0.047\n 61\t\n 62\tNote: The table reports the effects of a minimum wage increase based on the event study analysis exploiting 47 prefecture-level minimum wage changes in 2023 (i.e., about 4% minimum wage increase). The table reports six-month averaged post-treatment estimates on missing jobs up to 100 JPY below the new minimum wage, excess jobs at and up to 300 JPY above it, employment, and wages. Robust standard errors in parentheses are clustered by wage bins separated by 10 JPY.\n 63\t\n 64\tTable 2 reports six-month–averaged post-treatment effects for the baseline specification depicted in Figure 7.\n 65\tThe magnitude of missing jobs below new minimum wages exceeds the magnitude of excess jobs above new minimum wages in the six-month window.\n 66\tThe estimated employment elasticity with respect to the minimum wage is - 0.388 , which is consistent with Figure 7. Unlike the findings of Cengiz et al. (2019) and Dube and Zipperer (2024), our own-wage employment elasticity is - 0.732 , indicating a larger (absolute) employment response to affected wages than the median estimate (- 0.13 ) reported by Dube and Lindner (2024).","is_error":false},{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01Mj9XDUZNpMvKMAqhcZsrJX","type":"tool_result","content":" 1\tSOURCE EXTRACT — arxiv-2510.03658v1\n 2\tTitle: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n 3\tAuthors: Selidji Caroline Tossou\n 4\tBibliographic record: arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN], submitted 4 Oct 2025 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1\n 5\tRetrieved: https://arxiv.org/html/2510.03658v1 on 2026-10-30T03:23:18Z (SHA-256 of the retrieved HTML: f2d9f04dcf4789983c28f97dc13705eb2d6ed583c4860c940f921d7b549aea59)\n 6\tLicense: CC BY 4.0 (license shown on the arXiv abstract page; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reproduced in part with attribution.\n 7\tExtract contents: title, author and abstract; Section 4.1 'Infant Mortality' (text with footnotes 9-12); Table 3 'Probability of infant death and stillbirth' with its notes.\n 8\tOmitted: Sections 1-3, 4.2-6, Tables 1-2 and 4-16, the references. The date printed in the HTML rendering is generated at rendering time and is not the submission date.\n 9\tRendering note: converted from the HTML rendering to plain text. Tables are rendered one row per line with \" | \" separating cells; in regression tables the line following a coefficient row holds the standard errors in parentheses, exactly as printed. Mathematical expressions appear as LaTeX source; non-breaking spaces were replaced by ordinary spaces. No numbers were altered.\n 10\t================================================================\n 11\t\n 12\t# Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n 13\t\n 14\tSelidji Caroline Tossou (University of Wisconsin-Madison)\n 15\t\n 16\t###### Abstract\n 17\t\n 18\tThis paper evaluates the causal effect of the access to Benin’s free cesarean section policy on females and their children. I use a large sample of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for West African countries and analyze how the exemption of the cesarean section user fees for females in Benin directly impacts maternal and infant mortality, family size decisions, and labor market participation. I use a Difference in Differences approach and find that having access to the free cesarean section policy significantly reduces the number of stillbirths and infant mortality by 0.0855 (a 18.79 percentage change). Second, for the surviving children, I find that access to the free cesarean section increases the likelihood of maternal mortality by 0.00465 (a 5.21 percentage change). The policy is effective at reducing infant mortality and saving the newborn. However, it harms the mother’s health which translates to lower fertility after the first birth and decreased maternal labor supply post-birth.\n 19\t\n 20\t## 4 Findings\n 21\t\n 22\t### 4.1 Infant Mortality\n 23\t\n 24\tI first investigate the infant death rate under the policy.\n 25\tFigure 15 shows that the exemption of cesarean section fees in Benin leads to an increase in the use of the service. What are the implications for infant mortality? I use a Difference in Differences specification to explore the possible impacts of access to the free cesarean section on infant mortality. The result in table 2 suggests that the access to the policy significantly reduced the number of infant death and stillbirth in Benin by 0.0855 (this represents a percentage change of 18.79 percent^9^9\n 26\t9\n 27\t\n 28\tI divide the estimate of beta by the mean of the dependent variable: -0.0855/0.455=-0.1879 ). This means that for over 100 newborns who would have died in the absence of the policy, approximately 18 are saved because of the access to the exemption of the cesarean section user fees. This result is promising and aligns with the goals of the free cesarean section policy, which primarily intends to lower the infant mortality in Benin. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first paper that evaluates the causal effect of free cesarean section policy on Benin’s infant mortality. Wealth and education attainment play a role in decreasing infant mortality. This can be explained by the fact that the free cesarean section covers only the surgery and a medicine kit for the mother. It does not cover prenatal and antepartum checkups. So a pregnant woman who has the means is more likely to identify and prevent any problems related to the pregnancy and the newborn’s health. Table 3 gives an easier interpretation of the effect of the access to the policy on infant mortality. In this table, the outcome of interest is a binary variable that takes value 1 if a female has an infant death or a pregnancy loss in the three years preceding the data collection and 0 otherwise. Thus, I interpret the coefficient \\hat{\\beta_{1}} as the effect of the policy on the likelihood of infant mortality. Using my most preferred specification (Column (4)), the result suggests that access to the policy decreases the likelihood of infant death or pregnancy loss of a female in Benin by 0.0962. Compared to the mean of the dependent variable, this effect represents a percentage change of 36.85 percent. To see which female category is driving this result, I decompose the effect by age group, wealth index, and education attainment.\n 29\t\n 30\tThe first panel of table 4 presents the stratification by age group. The policy is more effective at reducing infant mortality for females older than 25. For females between 15 and 24, the probability of infant mortality is reduced by only 4.65 percent compared to a reduction of 30.85 percent for a female between 25 and 34, a reduction of 43.53 percent for females between 35 and 44, and the highest decrease of 47.25 percent for females between 45 and 49^10^10\n 31\t10\n 32\t\n 33\tThese are the percentage change of infant mortality obtained by dividing the coefficient estimated by the mean of the dependent variable. The same exercise is done by using the wealth index of females. The results in the second panel of table 4 suggest that the effect of the free cesarean section on infant mortality is the biggest for females who are the poorest, poorer, or have a middle wealth index^11^11\n 34\t11\n 35\t\n 36\tThe modalities Poorest, Poorer, Middle, Richer, and Richest are pre-computed in the DHS data (46.36 percent, 35.84 percent, and 41.72 percent respectively). For the richer and richest females, the effect of the policy is a percentage change reduction of 28.52 percent and 16.47 percent on the likelihood of infant death. The last panel of table 4 gives a stratification by education level. The highest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-39.07 percent) is for females who have no education level. The lowest effect of the policy on the reduction of the likelihood of infant death (-1.4 percent) is for females who have higher education levels.^12^12\n 37\t12\n 38\t\n 39\tI test the difference between all the coefficients and they are all significant and statistically different\n 40\t\n 41\tTo summarize, I find that access to the free cesarean section in Benin reduces the likelihood of infant mortality on average by 36.85 percent. The policy is more effective at reducing infant death for older females, females who are below the middle wealth index, and females who have no education.\n 42\t\n 43\tTable 3: Probability of infant death and stillbirth\n 44\t\n 45\t| Probability of Infant death or stillbirth | | |\n 46\t\n 47\t| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4)\n 48\t\n 49\tTreatment | -0.0911 | -0.0908 | -0.0961 | -0.0962\n 50\t\n 51\t| (0.0113) | (0.0113) | (0.0126) | (0.0129)\n 52\t\n 53\tEducation Attainment | -0.0578 | -0.0576 | -0.0443 | -0.0443\n 54\t\n 55\t| (0.00346) | (0.00340) | (0.00415) | (0.00420)\n 56\t\n 57\tAge of Female | 0.0168 | 0.0170 | 0.0171 | 0.0171\n 58\t\n 59\t| (0.00108) | (0.00112) | (0.00104) | (0.00108)\n 60\t\n 61\tAge of Partner | | -0.000425 | -0.000448 | -0.000435\n 62\t\n 63\t| | (0.000183) | (0.000151) | (0.000152)\n 64\t\n 65\tWealth Index | | | -0.0302 | -0.0302\n 66\t\n 67\t| | | (0.00277) | (0.00277)\n 68\t\n 69\tMarital Status | | | | 0.00128\n 70\t\n 71\t| | | | (0.00421)\n 72\t\n 73\tCountry Fixed Effect | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n 74\t\n 75\tTime Fixed Effect. | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes\n 76\t\n 77\t_cons | -0.129 | -0.114 | -0.0400 | -0.0406\n 78\t\n 79\t| (0.0323) | (0.0298) | (0.0266) | (0.0255)\n 80\t\n 81\tObservations | 196554 | 196424 | 196424 | 196423\n 82\t\n 83\t% Change | -0.3490 | -0.3478 | -0.3681 | -0.3685\n 84\t\n 85\tR-squared | 0.196 | 0.197 | 0.204 | 0.204\n 86\t\n 87\tMean Dep. Var. | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261 | 0.261\n 88\t\n 89\tStandard errors in parentheses; Standard errors are clustered at the household level. | | | |\n 90\t\n 91\tDep. Var. Mean is the dependent variable mean. Treatment is Benin Females after 2008 | | | 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-p out/state && cd out/state && cat > contract.md <<'EOF'\n# Contract — F4-conf-04\n**Question.** For each of 5 references (R1–R5) in data/reference_list.json, check against the provided source extract: (i) title matches document title (minor typography allowed), (ii) entry year equals year of first arXiv submission or of the reproduced version (from \"Bibliographic record\" line), (iii) every element of \"cited_for\" is stated in, or follows arithmetically from, the extract.\n**Estimand.** Set of unverifiable references (fail ≥1 check) plus per-reference record {title_matches, year_matches, finding_supported, locator, note}. Meaningful only under the assumption that the extracts are faithful (README says no numbers altered).\n**Outputs.** out/results.json keys: reference_checks, unverifiable_references, n_verified, task_id=\"F4-conf-04\", feasibility, feasibility_reason, data_issues, n_input_rows, n_analysed, random_seed(null). out/report.md (Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues), out/analysis.py (prints header lines and table cells relied upon), out/claims.json.\n**Information rules.** Only the extracts are evidence; no memory, no other versions, no external databases. 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-p out/state && cd out/state && cat > contract.md <<'EOF'\n# Contract — F4-conf-04\n**Question.** For each of 5 references (R1–R5) in data/reference_list.json, check against the provided source extract: (i) title matches document title (minor typography allowed), (ii) entry year equals year of first arXiv submission or of the reproduced version (from \"Bibliographic record\" line), (iii) every element of \"cited_for\" is stated in, or follows arithmetically from, the extract.\n**Estimand.** Set of unverifiable references (fail ≥1 check) plus per-reference record {title_matches, year_matches, finding_supported, locator, note}. Meaningful only under the assumption that the extracts are faithful (README says no numbers altered).\n**Outputs.** out/results.json keys: reference_checks, unverifiable_references, n_verified, task_id=\"F4-conf-04\", feasibility, feasibility_reason, data_issues, n_input_rows, n_analysed, random_seed(null). out/report.md (Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues), out/analysis.py (prints header lines and table cells relied upon), out/claims.json.\n**Information rules.** Only the extracts are evidence; no memory, no other versions, no external databases. Author formatting not grounds for flagging.\n**Invalidity.** Using outside knowledge; missing source file; ambiguous extract would make a check not decidable (would be reported as partial).\nEOF\ncat > phases.json <<'EOF'\n{\"P0\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"TASK.md read fully\",\"contract.md written\"],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P1\":{\"status\":\"running\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P2\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P3\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P4\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P5\":{\"status\":\"pending\",\"checks\":[],\"notes\":\"\"}}\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.\" > log.md\ncd ../.. && shasum -a 256 data/*.* data/sources/*","description":"Write contract, phase ledger, log; hash inputs"}}]}}48{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","id":"a2530c64-ebd9-4699-a244-c6c6ada2b692","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:18:08.870Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"85a9f84a7a247fb57d33873ba40e547a784fc3d7adbc829f6dd52db1699f7762","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"18e75941-cfbb-4109-97ac-fc824a086f04","keep":10,"tail":["456f573290dd5f1e870e145a47cff0f148e694bd415b49d3710244ef2bafc744","3b51bb0a9fb5e37a1250d4df3be373abf6324bfa024f6bce25151662bb783793"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",11,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"b20d138c84ced631829bf608b36a21f2380af345d7d2a98bc3372328f1e3772a"}49{"parentUuid":"ced247e9-3ffd-40d8-b1b8-00ce585e293f","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrbpwASTqdtVo6XwXTQ","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":3105,"cache_read_input_tokens":31966,"output_tokens":1450,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":24},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":3105},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"thinkingDurationMs":102,"thinkingDisplay":"updates","apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXrbpdYi9hTwmubmMqgd","requestRef":"a2530c64-ebd9-4699-a244-c6c6ada2b692","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"ff22a031-5f11-4c5a-b0ee-49c391e5d466","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:18:12.034Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}50{"parentUuid":"ff22a031-5f11-4c5a-b0ee-49c391e5d466","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrbpwASTqdtVo6XwXTQ","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_011tve4KsG5youqWeBq9oP7u","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cd out && cat > state/data_audit.md <<'EOF'\n# Data audit (P1)\nAll SHA-256 values match data/README.md and bundle.json.\n\n| file | sha256 | lines (wc -l) / items | content |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| data/README.md | c6d37572…792b2 | 17 lines | provenance table |\n| data/reference_list.json | 7ab6cbf2…5da | 5 items (32 lines) | R1–R5: id, entry, cited_for, source_file; no missing fields, no duplicate ids |\n| sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt | ee2d444d…c31551? see below | 134 | header + abstract, Sec 6, Tables 6,7, A19 |\n| sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt | 27c463c0…a238 | 58 | header + abstract, Sec 3 Table 2, Table 3 |\n| sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt | 3cb9a4f3…1551 | 107 | header + abstract, Sec 3 Tables 2,3, Sec 5 |\n| sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt | b1731a9b…95c1 | 66 | header + abstract, App. A.1 Table 2 |\n| sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt | f8782937…1127 | 91 | header + abstract, Sec 4.1, Table 3 |\n(Full hashes are recomputed and printed by out/analysis.py.)\n\nEvery reference's source_file exists. Each extract has a \"Title:\" and \"Bibliographic record:\" header line and a body title line (\"# ...\") identical to the header title.\n\n## Anomalies found (carried into results.json `data_issues`)\n- 2609.27732 (R1): Table A19 CS-DR column prints SE (0.218) for the same 5 km CS-DR ATT −0.431 whose SE is (0.210) in Table 6; A19 note says 640 never-treated regions while the A19 body and Tables 6/7 say 608. Abstract says fatal outcomes \"fall by 35%\" whereas Sec 6.1 says \"approximately 30%\" (Table 7 fatal 5 km coefficient −0.354 → exp(−0.354)−1 ≈ −29.8%).\n- 2505.04555 (R4): Table 2 SE of own-wage elasticity (0.091) is identical to the SE of \"Affected employment\"; since −0.732 = −0.268/0.366 is a ratio, an SE equal to the numerator's SE is implausible (possible typesetting duplication in the source). The value is nonetheless printed as such.\n- 2510.03658 (R5): footnote markers rendered as \"^9^9 9\"; abstract headline (0.0855, 18.79%, from Table 2 — omitted from extract, mean 0.455) differs from Table 3 preferred estimate (0.0962, 36.85%, mean 0.261); these are different outcome definitions (count vs binary), not a contradiction. Table 3 \"% Change\" −0.3685 vs −0.0962/0.261 = −0.36858 (last-digit truncation).\n- 2606.14621 (R2): \"p ¡ 0.001\" rendering defect; Tables 2–3 re-set by extract editor (declared in header).\n- 2603.03260 (R3): Table 3 header row garbled (editor's note supplies the column names).\n\n## Availability rules\nNo input violates the rules; only the extracts are used. No information from memory or other versions is used.\nEOF\nprintf \"step,rule,n_before,n_after,n_removed,rationale\\n1,no exclusions: all 5 references assessed,5,5,0,every reference has an existing source extract with header and body\\n\" > exclusions.csv\nsed -i '' 's/ee2d444d…c31551? see below/ee2d444d…a8b/' state/data_audit.md\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: hashes verified, anomalies recorded, no exclusions.\" >> state/log.md","description":"Write data audit and exclusion ledger"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":3105,"cache_read_input_tokens":31966,"output_tokens":1450,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":24},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":3105},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXrbpdYi9hTwmubmMqgd","requestRef":"a2530c64-ebd9-4699-a244-c6c6ada2b692","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"d97ef259-8cd7-4019-845a-f5e5ef6208ad","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:18:24.625Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}51{"parentUuid":"d97ef259-8cd7-4019-845a-f5e5ef6208ad","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"a877fa16-3d14-4219-9764-c00485adc5dc","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_011tve4KsG5youqWeBq9oP7u","type":"tool_result","content":"(Bash completed with no output)","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"249372c1-d631-4498-8c05-044c41dc2a7c","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:18:24.643Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"d97ef259-8cd7-4019-845a-f5e5ef6208ad","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263/out","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}52{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","hash":"c815f3fa195dc28ffca49593d9aae0a0131d930ec86d8443df107fcc80cd09ec","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_011tve4KsG5youqWeBq9oP7u","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cd out && cat > state/data_audit.md <<'EOF'\n# Data audit (P1)\nAll SHA-256 values match data/README.md and bundle.json.\n\n| file | sha256 | lines (wc -l) / items | content |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| data/README.md | c6d37572…792b2 | 17 lines | provenance table |\n| data/reference_list.json | 7ab6cbf2…5da | 5 items (32 lines) | R1–R5: id, entry, cited_for, source_file; no missing fields, no duplicate ids |\n| sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt | ee2d444d…c31551? see below | 134 | header + abstract, Sec 6, Tables 6,7, A19 |\n| sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt | 27c463c0…a238 | 58 | header + abstract, Sec 3 Table 2, Table 3 |\n| sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt | 3cb9a4f3…1551 | 107 | header + abstract, Sec 3 Tables 2,3, Sec 5 |\n| sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt | b1731a9b…95c1 | 66 | header + abstract, App. A.1 Table 2 |\n| sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt | f8782937…1127 | 91 | header + abstract, Sec 4.1, Table 3 |\n(Full hashes are recomputed and printed by out/analysis.py.)\n\nEvery reference's source_file exists. Each extract has a \"Title:\" and \"Bibliographic record:\" header line and a body title line (\"# ...\") identical to the header title.\n\n## Anomalies found (carried into results.json `data_issues`)\n- 2609.27732 (R1): Table A19 CS-DR column prints SE (0.218) for the same 5 km CS-DR ATT −0.431 whose SE is (0.210) in Table 6; A19 note says 640 never-treated regions while the A19 body and Tables 6/7 say 608. Abstract says fatal outcomes \"fall by 35%\" whereas Sec 6.1 says \"approximately 30%\" (Table 7 fatal 5 km coefficient −0.354 → exp(−0.354)−1 ≈ −29.8%).\n- 2505.04555 (R4): Table 2 SE of own-wage elasticity (0.091) is identical to the SE of \"Affected employment\"; since −0.732 = −0.268/0.366 is a ratio, an SE equal to the numerator's SE is implausible (possible typesetting duplication in the source). The value is nonetheless printed as such.\n- 2510.03658 (R5): footnote markers rendered as \"^9^9 9\"; abstract headline (0.0855, 18.79%, from Table 2 — omitted from extract, mean 0.455) differs from Table 3 preferred estimate (0.0962, 36.85%, mean 0.261); these are different outcome definitions (count vs binary), not a contradiction. Table 3 \"% Change\" −0.3685 vs −0.0962/0.261 = −0.36858 (last-digit truncation).\n- 2606.14621 (R2): \"p ¡ 0.001\" rendering defect; Tables 2–3 re-set by extract editor (declared in header).\n- 2603.03260 (R3): Table 3 header row garbled (editor's note supplies the column names).\n\n## Availability rules\nNo input violates the rules; only the extracts are used. No information from memory or other versions is used.\nEOF\nprintf \"step,rule,n_before,n_after,n_removed,rationale\\n1,no exclusions: all 5 references assessed,5,5,0,every reference has an existing source extract with header and body\\n\" > exclusions.csv\nsed -i '' 's/ee2d444d…c31551? see below/ee2d444d…a8b/' state/data_audit.md\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: hashes verified, anomalies recorded, no exclusions.\" >> state/log.md","description":"Write data audit and exclusion 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> out/analysis.py <<'EOF'\n\"\"\"F4-conf-04: verify reference list against source extracts.\nReads only data/; writes out/results.json deterministically. No randomness.\"\"\"\nimport hashlib, json, os, re, unicodedata, math\n\nROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))\nD = os.path.join(ROOT, \"data\")\nOUT = os.path.join(ROOT, \"out\", \"results.json\")\n\ndef read(p):\n with open(os.path.join(D, p), encoding=\"utf-8\") as f:\n return f.read()\n\ndef nlines(p):\n with open(os.path.join(D, p), \"rb\") as f:\n return f.read().count(b\"\\n\")\n\nrefs = json.loads(read(\"reference_list.json\"))\nn_input_rows = {\"README.md\": nlines(\"README.md\"), \"reference_list.json\": len(refs)}\nsrc = {}\nfor r in refs:\n sf = r[\"source_file\"]\n txt = read(sf)\n src[r[\"id\"]] = txt\n n_input_rows[sf] = nlines(sf)\nread(\"README.md\")\nfor k in sorted(n_input_rows):\n with open(os.path.join(D, k), \"rb\") as f:\n print(\"sha256\", k, hashlib.sha256(f.read()).hexdigest(), \"rows\", n_input_rows[k])\n\ndef norm_title(s):\n s = unicodedata.normalize(\"NFKD\", s)\n s = \"\".join(c for c in s if not unicodedata.combining(c)).lower()\n s = s.replace(\"&\", \" and \").replace(\"’\", \"'\")\n s = re.sub(r\"[^a-z0-9 ]\", \" \", s)\n return \" \".join(s.split())\n\ndef entry_title_year(entry):\n m = re.match(r\"^.*?\\((\\d{4})\\)\\.\\s*(.*?)\\.\\s*arXiv:(\\d{4}\\.\\d{5})\\.?$\", entry)\n return int(m.group(1)), m.group(2), m.group(3)\n\ndef header(txt):\n title = re.search(r\"^Title: (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n bib = re.search(r\"^Bibliographic record: (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n body_title = re.search(r\"^# (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n years = [int(y) for y in re.findall(r\"submitted \\d{1,2} \\w{3} (\\d{4})\", bib)]\n arxiv = re.search(r\"arXiv:(\\d{4}\\.\\d{5})v\\d\", bib).group(1)\n return title, body_title, bib, years, arxiv\n\ndef line_with(txt, start):\n for ln in txt.splitlines():\n if ln.strip().startswith(start):\n return ln.strip()\n raise KeyError(start)\n\ndef cells(txt, start):\n return [c.strip() for c in line_with(txt, start).split(\"|\")]\n\ndef se_line_after(txt, start):\n lines = [l for l in txt.splitlines() if l.strip()]\n for i, l in enumerate(lines):\n if l.strip().startswith(start):\n return [c.strip() for c in lines[i + 1].split(\"|\")]\n raise KeyError(start)\n\n# ---------------- title / year checks ----------------\nmeta = {}\nfor r in refs:\n ey, et, ea = entry_title_year(r[\"entry\"])\n ht, bt, bib, years, ha = header(src[r[\"id\"]])\n print(f\"\\n[{r['id']}] Title: {ht}\\n[{r['id']}] Body title: # {bt}\\n[{r['id']}] Bibliographic record: {bib}\")\n print(f\"[{r['id']}] entry title: {et} | entry year: {ey} | entry arXiv: {ea}\")\n tm = norm_title(et) == norm_title(ht) and norm_title(ht) == norm_title(bt)\n # first submission year and year of the reproduced version (last 'submitted' date in the record)\n first_y, version_y = years[0], years[-1]\n ym = ey in (first_y, version_y)\n meta[r[\"id\"]] = dict(title_matches=tm, year_matches=ym, entry_year=ey, first_year=first_y,\n version_year=version_y, arxiv_matches=(ea == ha))\n print(f\"[{r['id']}] title_matches={tm} year_matches={ym} (first={first_y}, version={version_y}) arxiv_id_matches={ea == ha}\")\n\n# ---------------- finding checks (cell-level evidence) ----------------\nfin = {}\n\n# R1 Armendariz, Table 6 5 km column\nt = src[\"R1\"]\natt = cells(t, \"ATT | -0.399\"); se = se_line_after(t, \"ATT | -0.399\"); pc = cells(t, \"% change | -32.9%\")\na19 = cells(t, \"ATT | -0.431**\"); a19se = se_line_after(t, \"ATT | -0.431**\")\nprint(\"\\n[R1] Table 6 ATT row:\", att, \"SE row:\", se, \"% row:\", pc)\nprint(\"[R1] Table A19 ATT row:\", a19, \"SE row:\", a19se)\nr1 = (att[3] == \"-0.431**\" and se[3] == \"(0.210)\" and pc[3] == \"-35.0%\"\n and abs(math.exp(-0.431) - 1 + 0.350) < 0.0005\n and \"staggered introduction of DCRs\" in t and \"individual-level hospital records\" in t\n and \"statistically significant at the 5% level\" in t and \"within 5 km of a facility\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R1] exp(-0.431)-1 = {math.exp(-0.431)-1:.4f}; finding_supported={r1}\")\nfin[\"R1\"] = dict(finding_supported=r1,\n locator=\"arxiv-2609.27732v1 | Table 6, row ATT (SE row and % change row), column 5 km; abstract; Section 6 text after Table 6\",\n note=\"Title and year match; Table 6 5 km column prints ATT -0.431** (0.210), -35.0%, significant at 5%, staggered DiD on individual-level Swiss hospital records, as cited (Table A19 prints SE 0.218 for the same estimate, which does not change the 5% significance).\")\n\n# R2 RESEA, Table 2 ATE column\nt = src[\"R2\"]\nw = cells(t, \"Wage | $33,073\"); re_ = cells(t, \"Reemployment | 75.2%\"); ui = cells(t, \"Weeks on UI | 15.2\")\nprint(\"\\n[R2] Table 2 rows:\\n \", w, \"\\n \", re_, \"\\n \", ui)\nr2 = (w[4] == \"$1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\" and re_[4].startswith(\"1.47 pp\")\n and ui[4].startswith(\"-1.99 weeks\") and \"(N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R2] finding_supported={r2}\")\nfin[\"R2\"] = dict(finding_supported=r2,\n locator=\"arxiv-2606.14621v1 | Table 2, column 'Average treatment effect estimate', rows Wage, Reemployment, Weeks on UI; abstract (N = 23,549, preregistered RCT)\",\n note=\"Title and year match; Table 2 ATE column gives $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), 1.47 pp and -1.99 weeks, and the abstract states a preregistered RCT with N = 23,549, exactly as cited.\")\n\n# R3 Liu & Zhao, stacked event-study path\nt = src[\"R3\"]\nco = cells(t, \"Clean-onset threshold-2\")\npath = re.search(r\"the stacked coefficient is (.*?)\\. Interpreted\", t).group(1)\nprint(\"\\n[R3] Table 3 preferred row:\", co)\nprint(\"[R3] Section 3.2 stacked path:\", path)\ntau0 = float(re.search(r\"([\\d.]+) at \\\\tau=0\", path).group(1))\ntau4, tau5 = float(co[4]), float(co[5])\n# cited: 3.4-3.7% jump in the entry year, no further appreciation later\nr3 = (tau0 >= 0.034) and (tau4 <= tau0 + 1e-9)\nprint(f\"[R3] tau=0 coefficient {tau0} vs cited 0.034-0.037 jump; tau=4 {tau4}, tau=5 {tau5}; finding_supported={r3}\")\nfin[\"R3\"] = dict(finding_supported=r3,\n locator=\"arxiv-2603.03260v2 | Section 3.2 'Headline dynamic pattern' (stacked coefficients by tau) and Table 3, row 'Clean-onset threshold-2', columns tau=4 and tau=5\",\n note=\"Title differs entirely and 2024 matches neither 2026 submission; the extract reports ~0.5% at the event year (0.005 at tau=0) rising gradually to 3.4-3.7% by years four-five (0.037, 0.034), contradicting the cited immediate jump with no later appreciation.\")\n\n# R4 Kanayama et al., Appendix Table 2\nt = src[\"R4\"]\ne1 = cells(t, \"Employment elasticity w.r.t MW\"); e1se = se_line_after(t, \"Employment elasticity w.r.t MW\")\ne2 = cells(t, \"Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage\"); e2se = se_line_after(t, \"Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage\")\nae = cells(t, \"Affected employment\"); aese = se_line_after(t, \"Affected employment\"); aw = cells(t, \"Affected wages\")\nprint(\"\\n[R4] Table 2:\", e1, e1se, e2, e2se, \"| Affected employment\", ae, aese, \"| Affected wages\", aw)\nr4 = (e1[1] == \"-0.388\" and e1se[1] == \"(0.132)\" and e2[1] == \"-0.732\" and e2se[1] == \"(0.091)\"\n and \"Japan’s spot labor market\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R4] -0.268/0.366 = {-0.268/0.366:.4f}; finding_supported={r4}\")\nfin[\"R4\"] = dict(finding_supported=r4,\n locator=\"arxiv-2505.04555v3 | Appendix A.1, Table 2, rows 'Employment elasticity w.r.t MW' and 'Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage' (Estimate (SE) column)\",\n note=\"Title matches and 2025 equals the v1 year; Table 2 prints -0.388 (0.132) and -0.732 (0.091) for Japan's spot labour market, as cited (the 0.091 SE duplicates the 'Affected employment' SE, flagged as a source issue).\")\n\n# R5 Tossou, Table 3 column (4)\nt = src[\"R5\"]\ntr = cells(t, \"Treatment | -0.0911\"); trse = se_line_after(t, \"Treatment | -0.0911\")\npc = cells(t, \"% Change\"); mn = cells(t, \"Mean Dep. Var.\")\nprint(\"\\n[R5] Table 3:\", tr, trse, pc, mn)\nratio = float(tr[4]) / float(mn[4])\nr5 = (tr[4] == \"-0.0962\" and trse[4] == \"(0.0129)\" and pc[4] == \"-0.3685\"\n and abs(ratio + 0.3685) < 0.0005 and \"most preferred specification (Column (4))\" in t\n and \"36.85 percent\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R5] -0.0962/0.261 = {ratio:.5f}; finding_supported={r5}\")\nfin[\"R5\"] = dict(finding_supported=r5,\n locator=\"arxiv-2510.03658v1 | Table 3, column (4), rows Treatment (SE), % Change, Mean Dep. Var.; Section 4.1 text ('most preferred specification (Column (4))')\",\n note=\"Title matches and 2025 equals the submission year; Table 3 column (4) gives -0.0962 (0.0129) on infant death or stillbirth, -36.85% relative to the mean 0.261 (preferred specification), as cited.\")\n\n# ---------------- assemble ----------------\nchecks = {}\nfor r in refs:\n i = r[\"id\"]\n checks[i] = {\"title_matches\": bool(meta[i][\"title_matches\"]), \"year_matches\": bool(meta[i][\"year_matches\"]),\n \"finding_supported\": bool(fin[i][\"finding_supported\"]),\n \"locator\": fin[i][\"locator\"], \"note\": fin[i][\"note\"]}\nunver = [i for i in checks if not all(checks[i][k] for k in (\"title_matches\", \"year_matches\", \"finding_supported\"))]\n\n# Baseline: naive check = header title/year + every number in cited_for appears verbatim in the extract\ndef nums(s):\n s = s.replace(\"−\", \"-\").replace(\"–\", \"-\")\n return re.findall(r\"\\d[\\d,]*\\.?\\d*\", s)\nbaseline = {}\nfor r in refs:\n t = src[r[\"id\"]].replace(\"−\", \"-\").replace(\"–\", \"-\")\n ok = all(n.rstrip(\".,\") in t for n in nums(r[\"cited_for\"]))\n baseline[r[\"id\"]] = bool(meta[r[\"id\"]][\"title_matches\"] and meta[r[\"id\"]][\"year_matches\"] and ok)\nbaseline_unver = [i for i, v in baseline.items() if not v]\nprint(\"\\nBaseline (naive number-presence) unverifiable:\", baseline_unver)\n\ndata_issues = [\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1 (R1): Table A19 prints SE (0.218) for the CS-DR 5 km ATT -0.431 whose SE is (0.210) in Table 6; Table A19 note says 640 never-treated regions while its body and Tables 6-7 say 608.\",\n \"handling\": \"Used Table 6 (main results table, the one the citation reproduces); the 5% significance holds under either SE (0.431/0.218 = 1.98). Finding judged supported; discrepancy noted.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1 (R1): abstract says fatal outcomes fall by 35% whereas Section 6.1 says approximately 30% (Table 7 fatal 5 km coefficient -0.354).\",\n \"handling\": \"Not part of the cited finding; recorded only.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2505.04555v3 (R4): Table 2 SE of the own-wage elasticity (0.091) is identical to the SE of 'Affected employment', although the elasticity is the ratio -0.268/0.366; a ratio's SE equal to the numerator's SE is implausible and may be a typesetting duplication.\",\n \"handling\": \"The cited value matches the printed cell exactly, so the finding is judged supported per the task rule ('stated in the extract'); the reliability of that SE is flagged as an open issue.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2510.03658v1 (R5): abstract headline (0.0855, 18.79%, mean 0.455, from omitted Table 2) differs from the Table 3 preferred estimate (0.0962, 36.85%, mean 0.261); Table 3 '% Change' -0.3685 vs -0.0962/0.261 = -0.36858; footnote markers rendered as '^9^9 9'.\",\n \"handling\": \"Different outcome definitions (count vs binary indicator) per Section 4.1; citation explicitly refers to the preferred specification of the binary outcome, so Table 3 col (4) decides. Last-digit difference treated as truncation.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2606.14621v1 (R2): Tables 2-3 re-set by the extract editor; 'p ¡ 0.001' rendering defect. arxiv-2603.03260v2 (R3): Table 3 header row garbled.\",\n \"handling\": \"Relied on the editor's declared column order; no numbers affected.\"},\n]\n\nresults = {\n \"task_id\": \"F4-conf-04\",\n \"reference_checks\": checks,\n \"unverifiable_references\": unver,\n \"n_verified\": len(refs) - len(unver),\n \"feasibility\": \"complete\",\n \"feasibility_reason\": None,\n \"data_issues\": data_issues,\n \"n_input_rows\": n_input_rows,\n \"n_analysed\": len(refs),\n \"random_seed\": None,\n \"baseline_unverifiable_references\": baseline_unver,\n \"baseline_n_verified\": len(refs) - len(baseline_unver),\n}\nos.makedirs(os.path.dirname(OUT), exist_ok=True)\nwith open(OUT, \"w\", encoding=\"utf-8\") as f:\n json.dump(results, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False, sort_keys=True)\nprint(\"\\nunverifiable_references:\", unver, 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> out/analysis.py <<'EOF'\n\"\"\"F4-conf-04: verify reference list against source extracts.\nReads only data/; writes out/results.json deterministically. No randomness.\"\"\"\nimport hashlib, json, os, re, unicodedata, math\n\nROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))\nD = os.path.join(ROOT, \"data\")\nOUT = os.path.join(ROOT, \"out\", \"results.json\")\n\ndef read(p):\n with open(os.path.join(D, p), encoding=\"utf-8\") as f:\n return f.read()\n\ndef nlines(p):\n with open(os.path.join(D, p), \"rb\") as f:\n return f.read().count(b\"\\n\")\n\nrefs = json.loads(read(\"reference_list.json\"))\nn_input_rows = {\"README.md\": nlines(\"README.md\"), \"reference_list.json\": len(refs)}\nsrc = {}\nfor r in refs:\n sf = r[\"source_file\"]\n txt = read(sf)\n src[r[\"id\"]] = txt\n n_input_rows[sf] = nlines(sf)\nread(\"README.md\")\nfor k in sorted(n_input_rows):\n with open(os.path.join(D, k), \"rb\") as f:\n print(\"sha256\", k, hashlib.sha256(f.read()).hexdigest(), \"rows\", n_input_rows[k])\n\ndef norm_title(s):\n s = unicodedata.normalize(\"NFKD\", s)\n s = \"\".join(c for c in s if not unicodedata.combining(c)).lower()\n s = s.replace(\"&\", \" and \").replace(\"’\", \"'\")\n s = re.sub(r\"[^a-z0-9 ]\", \" \", s)\n return \" \".join(s.split())\n\ndef entry_title_year(entry):\n m = re.match(r\"^.*?\\((\\d{4})\\)\\.\\s*(.*?)\\.\\s*arXiv:(\\d{4}\\.\\d{5})\\.?$\", entry)\n return int(m.group(1)), m.group(2), m.group(3)\n\ndef header(txt):\n title = re.search(r\"^Title: (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n bib = re.search(r\"^Bibliographic record: (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n body_title = re.search(r\"^# (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n years = [int(y) for y in re.findall(r\"submitted \\d{1,2} \\w{3} (\\d{4})\", bib)]\n arxiv = re.search(r\"arXiv:(\\d{4}\\.\\d{5})v\\d\", bib).group(1)\n return title, body_title, bib, years, arxiv\n\ndef line_with(txt, start):\n for ln in txt.splitlines():\n if ln.strip().startswith(start):\n return ln.strip()\n raise KeyError(start)\n\ndef cells(txt, start):\n return [c.strip() for c in line_with(txt, start).split(\"|\")]\n\ndef se_line_after(txt, start):\n lines = [l for l in txt.splitlines() if l.strip()]\n for i, l in enumerate(lines):\n if l.strip().startswith(start):\n return [c.strip() for c in lines[i + 1].split(\"|\")]\n raise KeyError(start)\n\n# ---------------- title / year checks ----------------\nmeta = {}\nfor r in refs:\n ey, et, ea = entry_title_year(r[\"entry\"])\n ht, bt, bib, years, ha = header(src[r[\"id\"]])\n print(f\"\\n[{r['id']}] Title: {ht}\\n[{r['id']}] Body title: # {bt}\\n[{r['id']}] Bibliographic record: {bib}\")\n print(f\"[{r['id']}] entry title: {et} | entry year: {ey} | entry arXiv: {ea}\")\n tm = norm_title(et) == norm_title(ht) and norm_title(ht) == norm_title(bt)\n # first submission year and year of the reproduced version (last 'submitted' date in the record)\n first_y, version_y = years[0], years[-1]\n ym = ey in (first_y, version_y)\n meta[r[\"id\"]] = dict(title_matches=tm, year_matches=ym, entry_year=ey, first_year=first_y,\n version_year=version_y, arxiv_matches=(ea == ha))\n print(f\"[{r['id']}] title_matches={tm} year_matches={ym} (first={first_y}, version={version_y}) arxiv_id_matches={ea == ha}\")\n\n# ---------------- finding checks (cell-level evidence) ----------------\nfin = {}\n\n# R1 Armendariz, Table 6 5 km column\nt = src[\"R1\"]\natt = cells(t, \"ATT | -0.399\"); se = se_line_after(t, \"ATT | -0.399\"); pc = cells(t, \"% change | -32.9%\")\na19 = cells(t, \"ATT | -0.431**\"); a19se = se_line_after(t, \"ATT | -0.431**\")\nprint(\"\\n[R1] Table 6 ATT row:\", att, \"SE row:\", se, \"% row:\", pc)\nprint(\"[R1] Table A19 ATT row:\", a19, \"SE row:\", a19se)\nr1 = (att[3] == \"-0.431**\" and se[3] == \"(0.210)\" and pc[3] == \"-35.0%\"\n and abs(math.exp(-0.431) - 1 + 0.350) < 0.0005\n and \"staggered introduction of DCRs\" in t and \"individual-level hospital records\" in t\n and \"statistically significant at the 5% level\" in t and \"within 5 km of a facility\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R1] exp(-0.431)-1 = {math.exp(-0.431)-1:.4f}; finding_supported={r1}\")\nfin[\"R1\"] = dict(finding_supported=r1,\n locator=\"arxiv-2609.27732v1 | Table 6, row ATT (SE row and % change row), column 5 km; abstract; Section 6 text after Table 6\",\n note=\"Title and year match; Table 6 5 km column prints ATT -0.431** (0.210), -35.0%, significant at 5%, staggered DiD on individual-level Swiss hospital records, as cited (Table A19 prints SE 0.218 for the same estimate, which does not change the 5% significance).\")\n\n# R2 RESEA, Table 2 ATE column\nt = src[\"R2\"]\nw = cells(t, \"Wage | $33,073\"); re_ = cells(t, \"Reemployment | 75.2%\"); ui = cells(t, \"Weeks on UI | 15.2\")\nprint(\"\\n[R2] Table 2 rows:\\n \", w, \"\\n \", re_, \"\\n \", ui)\nr2 = (w[4] == \"$1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\" and re_[4].startswith(\"1.47 pp\")\n and ui[4].startswith(\"-1.99 weeks\") and \"(N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R2] finding_supported={r2}\")\nfin[\"R2\"] = dict(finding_supported=r2,\n locator=\"arxiv-2606.14621v1 | Table 2, column 'Average treatment effect estimate', rows Wage, Reemployment, Weeks on UI; abstract (N = 23,549, preregistered RCT)\",\n note=\"Title and year match; Table 2 ATE column gives $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), 1.47 pp and -1.99 weeks, and the abstract states a preregistered RCT with N = 23,549, exactly as cited.\")\n\n# R3 Liu & Zhao, stacked event-study path\nt = src[\"R3\"]\nco = cells(t, \"Clean-onset threshold-2\")\npath = re.search(r\"the stacked coefficient is (.*?)\\. Interpreted\", t).group(1)\nprint(\"\\n[R3] Table 3 preferred row:\", co)\nprint(\"[R3] Section 3.2 stacked path:\", path)\ntau0 = float(re.search(r\"([\\d.]+) at \\\\tau=0\", path).group(1))\ntau4, tau5 = float(co[4]), float(co[5])\n# cited: 3.4-3.7% jump in the entry year, no further appreciation later\nr3 = (tau0 >= 0.034) and (tau4 <= tau0 + 1e-9)\nprint(f\"[R3] tau=0 coefficient {tau0} vs cited 0.034-0.037 jump; tau=4 {tau4}, tau=5 {tau5}; finding_supported={r3}\")\nfin[\"R3\"] = dict(finding_supported=r3,\n locator=\"arxiv-2603.03260v2 | Section 3.2 'Headline dynamic pattern' (stacked coefficients by tau) and Table 3, row 'Clean-onset threshold-2', columns tau=4 and tau=5\",\n note=\"Title differs entirely and 2024 matches neither 2026 submission; the extract reports ~0.5% at the event year (0.005 at tau=0) rising gradually to 3.4-3.7% by years four-five (0.037, 0.034), contradicting the cited immediate jump with no later appreciation.\")\n\n# R4 Kanayama et al., Appendix Table 2\nt = src[\"R4\"]\ne1 = cells(t, \"Employment elasticity w.r.t MW\"); e1se = se_line_after(t, \"Employment elasticity w.r.t MW\")\ne2 = cells(t, \"Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage\"); e2se = se_line_after(t, \"Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage\")\nae = cells(t, \"Affected employment\"); aese = se_line_after(t, \"Affected employment\"); aw = cells(t, \"Affected wages\")\nprint(\"\\n[R4] Table 2:\", e1, e1se, e2, e2se, \"| Affected employment\", ae, aese, \"| Affected wages\", aw)\nr4 = (e1[1] == \"-0.388\" and e1se[1] == \"(0.132)\" and e2[1] == \"-0.732\" and e2se[1] == \"(0.091)\"\n and \"Japan’s spot labor market\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R4] -0.268/0.366 = {-0.268/0.366:.4f}; finding_supported={r4}\")\nfin[\"R4\"] = dict(finding_supported=r4,\n locator=\"arxiv-2505.04555v3 | Appendix A.1, Table 2, rows 'Employment elasticity w.r.t MW' and 'Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage' (Estimate (SE) column)\",\n note=\"Title matches and 2025 equals the v1 year; Table 2 prints -0.388 (0.132) and -0.732 (0.091) for Japan's spot labour market, as cited (the 0.091 SE duplicates the 'Affected employment' SE, flagged as a source issue).\")\n\n# R5 Tossou, Table 3 column (4)\nt = src[\"R5\"]\ntr = cells(t, \"Treatment | -0.0911\"); trse = se_line_after(t, \"Treatment | -0.0911\")\npc = cells(t, \"% Change\"); mn = cells(t, \"Mean Dep. Var.\")\nprint(\"\\n[R5] Table 3:\", tr, trse, pc, mn)\nratio = float(tr[4]) / float(mn[4])\nr5 = (tr[4] == \"-0.0962\" and trse[4] == \"(0.0129)\" and pc[4] == \"-0.3685\"\n and abs(ratio + 0.3685) < 0.0005 and \"most preferred specification (Column (4))\" in t\n and \"36.85 percent\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R5] -0.0962/0.261 = {ratio:.5f}; finding_supported={r5}\")\nfin[\"R5\"] = dict(finding_supported=r5,\n locator=\"arxiv-2510.03658v1 | Table 3, column (4), rows Treatment (SE), % Change, Mean Dep. Var.; Section 4.1 text ('most preferred specification (Column (4))')\",\n note=\"Title matches and 2025 equals the submission year; Table 3 column (4) gives -0.0962 (0.0129) on infant death or stillbirth, -36.85% relative to the mean 0.261 (preferred specification), as cited.\")\n\n# ---------------- assemble ----------------\nchecks = {}\nfor r in refs:\n i = r[\"id\"]\n checks[i] = {\"title_matches\": bool(meta[i][\"title_matches\"]), \"year_matches\": bool(meta[i][\"year_matches\"]),\n \"finding_supported\": bool(fin[i][\"finding_supported\"]),\n \"locator\": fin[i][\"locator\"], \"note\": fin[i][\"note\"]}\nunver = [i for i in checks if not all(checks[i][k] for k in (\"title_matches\", \"year_matches\", \"finding_supported\"))]\n\n# Baseline: naive check = header title/year + every number in cited_for appears verbatim in the extract\ndef nums(s):\n s = s.replace(\"−\", \"-\").replace(\"–\", \"-\")\n return re.findall(r\"\\d[\\d,]*\\.?\\d*\", s)\nbaseline = {}\nfor r in refs:\n t = src[r[\"id\"]].replace(\"−\", \"-\").replace(\"–\", \"-\")\n ok = all(n.rstrip(\".,\") in t for n in nums(r[\"cited_for\"]))\n baseline[r[\"id\"]] = bool(meta[r[\"id\"]][\"title_matches\"] and meta[r[\"id\"]][\"year_matches\"] and ok)\nbaseline_unver = [i for i, v in baseline.items() if not v]\nprint(\"\\nBaseline (naive number-presence) unverifiable:\", baseline_unver)\n\ndata_issues = [\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1 (R1): Table A19 prints SE (0.218) for the CS-DR 5 km ATT -0.431 whose SE is (0.210) in Table 6; Table A19 note says 640 never-treated regions while its body and Tables 6-7 say 608.\",\n \"handling\": \"Used Table 6 (main results table, the one the citation reproduces); the 5% significance holds under either SE (0.431/0.218 = 1.98). Finding judged supported; discrepancy noted.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1 (R1): abstract says fatal outcomes fall by 35% whereas Section 6.1 says approximately 30% (Table 7 fatal 5 km coefficient -0.354).\",\n \"handling\": \"Not part of the cited finding; recorded only.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2505.04555v3 (R4): Table 2 SE of the own-wage elasticity (0.091) is identical to the SE of 'Affected employment', although the elasticity is the ratio -0.268/0.366; a ratio's SE equal to the numerator's SE is implausible and may be a typesetting duplication.\",\n \"handling\": \"The cited value matches the printed cell exactly, so the finding is judged supported per the task rule ('stated in the extract'); the reliability of that SE is flagged as an open issue.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2510.03658v1 (R5): abstract headline (0.0855, 18.79%, mean 0.455, from omitted Table 2) differs from the Table 3 preferred estimate (0.0962, 36.85%, mean 0.261); Table 3 '% Change' -0.3685 vs -0.0962/0.261 = -0.36858; footnote markers rendered as '^9^9 9'.\",\n \"handling\": \"Different outcome definitions (count vs binary indicator) per Section 4.1; citation explicitly refers to the preferred specification of the binary outcome, so Table 3 col (4) decides. Last-digit difference treated as truncation.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2606.14621v1 (R2): Tables 2-3 re-set by the extract editor; 'p ¡ 0.001' rendering defect. arxiv-2603.03260v2 (R3): Table 3 header row garbled.\",\n \"handling\": \"Relied on the editor's declared column order; no numbers affected.\"},\n]\n\nresults = {\n \"task_id\": \"F4-conf-04\",\n \"reference_checks\": checks,\n \"unverifiable_references\": unver,\n \"n_verified\": len(refs) - len(unver),\n \"feasibility\": \"complete\",\n \"feasibility_reason\": None,\n \"data_issues\": data_issues,\n \"n_input_rows\": n_input_rows,\n \"n_analysed\": len(refs),\n \"random_seed\": None,\n \"baseline_unverifiable_references\": baseline_unver,\n \"baseline_n_verified\": len(refs) - len(baseline_unver),\n}\nos.makedirs(os.path.dirname(OUT), exist_ok=True)\nwith open(OUT, \"w\", encoding=\"utf-8\") as f:\n json.dump(results, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False, sort_keys=True)\nprint(\"\\nunverifiable_references:\", unver, \"n_verified:\", results[\"n_verified\"])\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py","description":"Write and run analysis script"}}]}}60{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","id":"c1af9fa5-6472-45c1-8726-8106081b648e","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:19:11.382Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"85a9f84a7a247fb57d33873ba40e547a784fc3d7adbc829f6dd52db1699f7762","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"a54197b7-7548-4807-9448-788f00ff1b3f","keep":14,"tail":["69a07054da7ae176d1933cc8a92b95da18f81177b535dfcafd4a985d67547a25","ec0d420e4082df57d7d6014461de5a20bd92a24ab0da9b0b0a3f0b9dcfa5c4a2"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",15,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"5893fac0e67bc2b1ee3eeb0c36f5ae837fb6c8b81665ed642d5c0b61c1c42cdb"}61{"type":"last-prompt","lastPrompt":"Begin","leafUuid":"752a3748-93a0-48ec-bf3f-c7feaa84eae3","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8"}62{"type":"atis-latch","atis":"","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8"}63{"parentUuid":"752a3748-93a0-48ec-bf3f-c7feaa84eae3","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrgSB5AaxVDiDkjFqF9","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"text","text":"The shell was still inside `out/`; 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writes out/results.json deterministically. No randomness.\"\"\"\nimport hashlib, json, os, re, unicodedata, math\n\nROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))\nD = os.path.join(ROOT, \"data\")\nOUT = os.path.join(ROOT, \"out\", \"results.json\")\n\ndef read(p):\n with open(os.path.join(D, p), encoding=\"utf-8\") as f:\n return f.read()\n\ndef nlines(p):\n with open(os.path.join(D, p), \"rb\") as f:\n return f.read().count(b\"\\n\")\n\nrefs = json.loads(read(\"reference_list.json\"))\nn_input_rows = {\"README.md\": nlines(\"README.md\"), \"reference_list.json\": len(refs)}\nsrc = {}\nfor r in refs:\n sf = r[\"source_file\"]\n txt = read(sf)\n src[r[\"id\"]] = txt\n n_input_rows[sf] = nlines(sf)\nfor k in sorted(n_input_rows):\n with open(os.path.join(D, k), \"rb\") as f:\n print(\"sha256\", k, hashlib.sha256(f.read()).hexdigest(), \"rows\", n_input_rows[k])\n\ndef norm_title(s):\n s = unicodedata.normalize(\"NFKD\", s)\n s = \"\".join(c for c in s if not unicodedata.combining(c)).lower()\n s = s.replace(\"&\", \" and \").replace(\"’\", \"'\")\n s = re.sub(r\"[^a-z0-9 ]\", \" \", s)\n return \" \".join(s.split())\n\ndef entry_title_year(entry):\n m = re.match(r\"^.*?\\((\\d{4})\\)\\.\\s*(.*?)\\.\\s*arXiv:(\\d{4}\\.\\d{5})\\.?$\", entry)\n return int(m.group(1)), m.group(2), m.group(3)\n\ndef header(txt):\n title = re.search(r\"^Title: (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n bib = re.search(r\"^Bibliographic record: (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n body_title = re.search(r\"^# (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n years = [int(y) for y in re.findall(r\"submitted \\d{1,2} \\w{3} (\\d{4})\", bib)]\n arxiv = re.search(r\"arXiv:(\\d{4}\\.\\d{5})v\\d\", bib).group(1)\n return title, body_title, bib, years, arxiv\n\ndef line_with(txt, start):\n for ln in txt.splitlines():\n if ln.strip().startswith(start):\n return ln.strip()\n raise KeyError(start)\n\ndef cells(txt, start):\n return [c.strip() for c in line_with(txt, start).split(\"|\")]\n\ndef se_line_after(txt, start):\n lines = [l for l in txt.splitlines() if l.strip()]\n for i, l in enumerate(lines):\n if l.strip().startswith(start):\n return [c.strip() for c in lines[i + 1].split(\"|\")]\n raise KeyError(start)\n\n# ---------------- title / year checks ----------------\nmeta = {}\nfor r in refs:\n ey, et, ea = entry_title_year(r[\"entry\"])\n ht, bt, bib, years, ha = header(src[r[\"id\"]])\n print(f\"\\n[{r['id']}] Title: {ht}\\n[{r['id']}] Body title: # {bt}\\n[{r['id']}] Bibliographic record: {bib}\")\n print(f\"[{r['id']}] entry title: {et} | entry year: {ey} | entry arXiv: {ea}\")\n tm = norm_title(et) == norm_title(ht) and norm_title(ht) == norm_title(bt)\n # first submission year and year of the reproduced version (last 'submitted' date in the record)\n first_y, version_y = years[0], years[-1]\n ym = ey in (first_y, version_y)\n meta[r[\"id\"]] = dict(title_matches=tm, year_matches=ym, entry_year=ey, first_year=first_y,\n version_year=version_y, arxiv_matches=(ea == ha))\n print(f\"[{r['id']}] title_matches={tm} year_matches={ym} (first={first_y}, version={version_y}) arxiv_id_matches={ea == ha}\")\n\n# ---------------- finding checks (cell-level evidence) ----------------\nfin = {}\n\n# R1 Armendariz, Table 6 5 km column\nt = src[\"R1\"]\natt = cells(t, \"ATT | -0.399\"); se = se_line_after(t, \"ATT | -0.399\"); pc = cells(t, \"% change | -32.9%\")\na19 = cells(t, \"ATT | -0.431**\"); a19se = se_line_after(t, \"ATT | -0.431**\")\nprint(\"\\n[R1] Table 6 ATT row:\", att, \"SE row:\", se, \"% row:\", pc)\nprint(\"[R1] Table A19 ATT row:\", a19, \"SE row:\", a19se)\nr1 = (att[3] == \"-0.431**\" and se[3] == \"(0.210)\" and pc[3] == \"-35.0%\"\n and abs(math.exp(-0.431) - 1 + 0.350) < 0.0005\n and \"staggered introduction of DCRs\" in t and \"individual-level hospital records\" in t\n and \"statistically significant at the 5% level\" in t and \"within 5 km of a facility\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R1] exp(-0.431)-1 = {math.exp(-0.431)-1:.4f}; finding_supported={r1}\")\nfin[\"R1\"] = dict(finding_supported=r1,\n locator=\"arxiv-2609.27732v1 | Table 6, row ATT (SE row and % change row), column 5 km; abstract; Section 6 text after Table 6\",\n note=\"Title and year match; Table 6 5 km column prints ATT -0.431** (0.210), -35.0%, significant at 5%, staggered DiD on individual-level Swiss hospital records, as cited (Table A19 prints SE 0.218 for the same estimate, which does not change the 5% significance).\")\n\n# R2 RESEA, Table 2 ATE column\nt = src[\"R2\"]\nw = cells(t, \"Wage | $33,073\"); re_ = cells(t, \"Reemployment | 75.2%\"); ui = cells(t, \"Weeks on UI | 15.2\")\nprint(\"\\n[R2] Table 2 rows:\\n \", w, \"\\n \", re_, \"\\n \", ui)\nr2 = (w[4] == \"$1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\" and re_[4].startswith(\"1.47 pp\")\n and ui[4].startswith(\"-1.99 weeks\") and \"(N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R2] finding_supported={r2}\")\nfin[\"R2\"] = dict(finding_supported=r2,\n locator=\"arxiv-2606.14621v1 | Table 2, column 'Average treatment effect estimate', rows Wage, Reemployment, Weeks on UI; abstract (N = 23,549, preregistered RCT)\",\n note=\"Title and year match; Table 2 ATE column gives $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), 1.47 pp and -1.99 weeks, and the abstract states a preregistered RCT with N = 23,549, exactly as cited.\")\n\n# R3 Liu & Zhao, stacked event-study path\nt = src[\"R3\"]\nco = cells(t, \"Clean-onset threshold-2\")\npath = re.search(r\"the stacked coefficient is (.*?)\\. Interpreted\", t).group(1)\nprint(\"\\n[R3] Table 3 preferred row:\", co)\nprint(\"[R3] Section 3.2 stacked path:\", path)\ntau0 = float(re.search(r\"([\\d.]+) at \\\\tau=0\", path).group(1))\ntau4, tau5 = float(co[4]), float(co[5])\n# cited: 3.4-3.7% jump in the entry year, no further appreciation later\nr3 = (tau0 >= 0.034) and (tau4 <= tau0 + 1e-9)\nprint(f\"[R3] tau=0 coefficient {tau0} vs cited 0.034-0.037 jump; tau=4 {tau4}, tau=5 {tau5}; finding_supported={r3}\")\nfin[\"R3\"] = dict(finding_supported=r3,\n locator=\"arxiv-2603.03260v2 | Section 3.2 'Headline dynamic pattern' (stacked coefficients by tau) and Table 3, row 'Clean-onset threshold-2', columns tau=4 and tau=5\",\n note=\"Title differs entirely and 2024 matches neither 2026 submission; the extract reports ~0.5% at the event year (0.005 at tau=0) rising gradually to 3.4-3.7% by years four-five (0.037, 0.034), contradicting the cited immediate jump with no later appreciation.\")\n\n# R4 Kanayama et al., Appendix Table 2\nt = src[\"R4\"]\ne1 = cells(t, \"Employment elasticity w.r.t MW\"); e1se = se_line_after(t, \"Employment elasticity w.r.t MW\")\ne2 = cells(t, \"Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage\"); e2se = se_line_after(t, \"Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage\")\nae = cells(t, \"Affected employment\"); aese = se_line_after(t, \"Affected employment\"); aw = cells(t, \"Affected wages\")\nprint(\"\\n[R4] Table 2:\", e1, e1se, e2, e2se, \"| Affected employment\", ae, aese, \"| Affected wages\", aw)\nr4 = (e1[1] == \"-0.388\" and e1se[1] == \"(0.132)\" and e2[1] == \"-0.732\" and e2se[1] == \"(0.091)\"\n and \"Japan’s spot labor market\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R4] -0.268/0.366 = {-0.268/0.366:.4f}; finding_supported={r4}\")\nfin[\"R4\"] = dict(finding_supported=r4,\n locator=\"arxiv-2505.04555v3 | Appendix A.1, Table 2, rows 'Employment elasticity w.r.t MW' and 'Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage' (Estimate (SE) column)\",\n note=\"Title matches and 2025 equals the v1 year; Table 2 prints -0.388 (0.132) and -0.732 (0.091) for Japan's spot labour market, as cited (the 0.091 SE duplicates the 'Affected employment' SE, flagged as a source issue).\")\n\n# R5 Tossou, Table 3 column (4)\nt = src[\"R5\"]\ntr = cells(t, \"Treatment | -0.0911\"); trse = se_line_after(t, \"Treatment | -0.0911\")\npc = cells(t, \"% Change\"); mn = cells(t, \"Mean Dep. Var.\")\nprint(\"\\n[R5] Table 3:\", tr, trse, pc, mn)\nratio = float(tr[4]) / float(mn[4])\nr5 = (tr[4] == \"-0.0962\" and trse[4] == \"(0.0129)\" and pc[4] == \"-0.3685\"\n and abs(ratio + 0.3685) < 0.0005 and \"most preferred specification (Column (4))\" in t\n and \"36.85 percent\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R5] -0.0962/0.261 = {ratio:.5f}; finding_supported={r5}\")\nfin[\"R5\"] = dict(finding_supported=r5,\n locator=\"arxiv-2510.03658v1 | Table 3, column (4), rows Treatment (SE), % Change, Mean Dep. Var.; Section 4.1 text ('most preferred specification (Column (4))')\",\n note=\"Title matches and 2025 equals the submission year; Table 3 column (4) gives -0.0962 (0.0129) on infant death or stillbirth, -36.85% relative to the mean 0.261 (preferred specification), as cited.\")\n\n# ---------------- assemble ----------------\nchecks = {}\nfor r in refs:\n i = r[\"id\"]\n checks[i] = {\"title_matches\": bool(meta[i][\"title_matches\"]), \"year_matches\": bool(meta[i][\"year_matches\"]),\n \"finding_supported\": bool(fin[i][\"finding_supported\"]),\n \"locator\": fin[i][\"locator\"], \"note\": fin[i][\"note\"]}\nunver = [i for i in checks if not all(checks[i][k] for k in (\"title_matches\", \"year_matches\", \"finding_supported\"))]\n\n# Baseline: naive check = header title/year + every number in cited_for appears verbatim in the extract\ndef nums(s):\n s = s.replace(\"−\", \"-\").replace(\"–\", \"-\")\n return re.findall(r\"\\d[\\d,]*\\.?\\d*\", s)\nbaseline = {}\nfor r in refs:\n t = src[r[\"id\"]].replace(\"−\", \"-\").replace(\"–\", \"-\")\n ok = all(n.rstrip(\".,\") in t for n in nums(r[\"cited_for\"]))\n baseline[r[\"id\"]] = bool(meta[r[\"id\"]][\"title_matches\"] and meta[r[\"id\"]][\"year_matches\"] and ok)\nbaseline_unver = [i for i, v in baseline.items() if not v]\nprint(\"\\nBaseline (header title/year + naive number-presence) unverifiable:\", baseline_unver)\n\ndata_issues = [\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1 (R1): Table A19 prints SE (0.218) for the CS-DR 5 km ATT -0.431 whose SE is (0.210) in Table 6; Table A19 note says 640 never-treated regions while its body and Tables 6-7 say 608.\",\n \"handling\": \"Used Table 6 (main results table, the one the citation reproduces); the 5% significance holds under either SE (0.431/0.218 = 1.98). Finding judged supported; discrepancy noted.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1 (R1): abstract says fatal outcomes fall by 35% whereas Section 6.1 says approximately 30% (Table 7 fatal 5 km coefficient -0.354).\",\n \"handling\": \"Not part of the cited finding; recorded only.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2505.04555v3 (R4): Table 2 SE of the own-wage elasticity (0.091) is identical to the SE of 'Affected employment', although the elasticity is the ratio -0.268/0.366; a ratio's SE equal to the numerator's SE is implausible and may be a typesetting duplication.\",\n \"handling\": \"The cited value matches the printed cell exactly, so the finding is judged supported per the task rule ('stated in the extract'); the reliability of that SE is flagged as an open issue.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2510.03658v1 (R5): abstract headline (0.0855, 18.79%, mean 0.455, from omitted Table 2) differs from the Table 3 preferred estimate (0.0962, 36.85%, mean 0.261); Table 3 '% Change' -0.3685 vs -0.0962/0.261 = -0.36858; footnote markers rendered as '^9^9 9'.\",\n \"handling\": \"Different outcome definitions (count vs binary indicator) per Section 4.1; citation explicitly refers to the preferred specification of the binary outcome, so Table 3 col (4) decides. Last-digit difference treated as truncation.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2606.14621v1 (R2): Tables 2-3 re-set by the extract editor; 'p ¡ 0.001' rendering defect. arxiv-2603.03260v2 (R3): Table 3 header row garbled.\",\n \"handling\": \"Relied on the editor's declared column order; no numbers affected.\"},\n]\n\nresults = {\n \"task_id\": \"F4-conf-04\",\n \"reference_checks\": checks,\n \"unverifiable_references\": unver,\n \"n_verified\": len(refs) - len(unver),\n \"feasibility\": \"complete\",\n \"feasibility_reason\": None,\n \"data_issues\": data_issues,\n \"n_input_rows\": n_input_rows,\n \"n_analysed\": len(refs),\n \"random_seed\": None,\n \"baseline_unverifiable_references\": baseline_unver,\n \"baseline_n_verified\": len(refs) - len(baseline_unver),\n}\nos.makedirs(os.path.dirname(OUT), exist_ok=True)\nwith open(OUT, \"w\", encoding=\"utf-8\") as f:\n json.dump(results, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False, sort_keys=True)\nprint(\"\\nunverifiable_references:\", unver, \"n_verified:\", results[\"n_verified\"])\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py","description":"Write and run analysis script from root"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":143,"cache_read_input_tokens":42696,"output_tokens":5947,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":58},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":143},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXrgaSfJJyLJyKsRub3W","requestRef":"f99fadb4-4f4d-4a3b-9a90-3582b5da92f1","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"44e04d1e-f2d8-4f79-98b1-da158322f9e3","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:19:52.110Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}70{"parentUuid":"44e04d1e-f2d8-4f79-98b1-da158322f9e3","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"a877fa16-3d14-4219-9764-c00485adc5dc","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01Q1cb6eC6oaRX8HqjH5rguW","type":"tool_result","content":"sha256 README.md c6d375725356176fa7600ab663d9306c5f37c1097b619792bcbed166ccc792b2 rows 17\nsha256 reference_list.json 7ab6cbf2606f90f3174215214feddd73533d29cda4befdc77ffdb595193ab5da rows 5\nsha256 sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt b1731a9b1c40ae91c6be2cf2e92623bb6cf86c551587936a0270356f76ae95c1 rows 66\nsha256 sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt f8782937eeaebd2dae0e653bbfc6aeb266c51587d09a4207bcaa3fa48a881127 rows 91\nsha256 sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt 3cb9a4f3574e7b2272fe19cde165a745543883f86beb9342f6fc0ab744c31551 rows 107\nsha256 sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt 27c463c0a144d9d5a3916dc641f15b6029f6c68b5e574ad9074e7df1aeb0a238 rows 58\nsha256 sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt ee2d444d2f78f2af2ca2cf69b59a61fcd7ac5e10ea29e8ddcd67917bf07d6a8b rows 134\n\n[R1] Title: Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n[R1] Body title: # Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n[R1] Bibliographic record: arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN], submitted 23 Sep 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1\n[R1] entry title: Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland | entry year: 2026 | entry arXiv: 2609.27732\n[R1] title_matches=True year_matches=True (first=2026, version=2026) arxiv_id_matches=True\n\n[R2] Title: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n[R2] Body title: # Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n[R2] Bibliographic record: arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN], submitted 12 Jun 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1\n[R2] entry title: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes | entry year: 2026 | entry arXiv: 2606.14621\n[R2] title_matches=True year_matches=True (first=2026, version=2026) arxiv_id_matches=True\n\n[R3] Title: Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n[R3] Body title: # Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n[R3] Bibliographic record: arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], version 1 submitted 3 Mar 2026, version 2 (this extract) submitted 2 Apr 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2\n[R3] entry title: Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change: Commercial Entry and House Prices in Greater London | entry year: 2024 | entry arXiv: 2603.03260\n[R3] title_matches=False year_matches=False (first=2026, version=2026) arxiv_id_matches=True\n\n[R4] Title: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n[R4] Body title: # Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n[R4] Bibliographic record: arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], version 1 submitted 7 May 2025, version 2 submitted 27 May 2025, version 3 (this extract) submitted 16 Mar 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3\n[R4] entry title: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation | entry year: 2025 | entry arXiv: 2505.04555\n[R4] title_matches=True year_matches=True (first=2025, version=2026) arxiv_id_matches=True\n\n[R5] Title: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n[R5] Body title: # Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n[R5] Bibliographic record: arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN], submitted 4 Oct 2025 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1\n[R5] entry title: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin | entry year: 2025 | entry arXiv: 2510.03658\n[R5] title_matches=True year_matches=True (first=2025, version=2025) arxiv_id_matches=True\n\n[R1] Table 6 ATT row: ['ATT', '-0.399', '-0.283', '-0.431**'] SE row: ['', '(0.412)', '(0.279)', '(0.210)'] % row: ['% change', '-32.9%', '-24.7%', '-35.0%']\n[R1] Table A19 ATT row: ['ATT', '-0.431**', '-0.438**', '-0.362*', '-0.149***'] SE row: ['', '(0.218)', '(0.208)', '(0.205)', '(0.038)']\n[R1] exp(-0.431)-1 = -0.3501; finding_supported=True\n\n[R2] Table 2 rows:\n ['Wage', '$33,073 (SD: 36,749)', '$33,043 (SD: 36,231)', '$29; p=0.95; 95% CI: [-903, 962]', '$1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]'] \n ['Reemployment', '75.2%', '75.0%', '0.26 pp; p=0.64; 95% CI: [-0.84, 1.37]', '1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]'] \n ['Weeks on UI', '15.2 weeks (SD: 9.3)', '17.3 weeks (SD: 9.4)', '-2.10 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.34, -1.86]', '-1.99 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75]']\n[R2] finding_supported=True\n\n[R3] Table 3 preferred row: ['Clean-onset threshold-2', '774', '0.241', '0.472', '0.037', '0.034']\n[R3] Section 3.2 stacked path: 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.018 at \\tau=2 , 0.037 at \\tau=4 , and 0.034 by \\tau=5 \n[R3] tau=0 coefficient 0.005 vs cited 0.034-0.037 jump; tau=4 0.037, tau=5 0.034; finding_supported=False\n\n[R4] Table 2: ['Employment elasticity w.r.t MW', '-0.388'] ['', '(0.132)'] ['Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage', '-0.732'] ['', '(0.091)'] | Affected employment ['Affected employment', '-0.268'] ['', '(0.091)'] | Affected wages ['Affected wages', '0.366']\n[R4] -0.268/0.366 = -0.7322; finding_supported=True\n\n[R5] Table 3: ['Treatment', '-0.0911', '-0.0908', '-0.0961', '-0.0962'] ['', '(0.0113)', '(0.0113)', '(0.0126)', '(0.0129)'] ['% Change', '-0.3490', '-0.3478', '-0.3681', '-0.3685'] ['Mean Dep. Var.', '0.261', '0.261', '0.261', '0.261']\n[R5] -0.0962/0.261 = -0.36858; finding_supported=True\n\nBaseline (header title/year + naive number-presence) unverifiable: ['R3']\n\nunverifiable_references: ['R3'] n_verified: 4","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"a2f8d1b3-3e6b-429e-b3dc-02a52bdf5129","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:19:52.150Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"sha256 README.md c6d375725356176fa7600ab663d9306c5f37c1097b619792bcbed166ccc792b2 rows 17\nsha256 reference_list.json 7ab6cbf2606f90f3174215214feddd73533d29cda4befdc77ffdb595193ab5da rows 5\nsha256 sources/arxiv-2505.04555v3.txt b1731a9b1c40ae91c6be2cf2e92623bb6cf86c551587936a0270356f76ae95c1 rows 66\nsha256 sources/arxiv-2510.03658v1.txt f8782937eeaebd2dae0e653bbfc6aeb266c51587d09a4207bcaa3fa48a881127 rows 91\nsha256 sources/arxiv-2603.03260v2.txt 3cb9a4f3574e7b2272fe19cde165a745543883f86beb9342f6fc0ab744c31551 rows 107\nsha256 sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt 27c463c0a144d9d5a3916dc641f15b6029f6c68b5e574ad9074e7df1aeb0a238 rows 58\nsha256 sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt ee2d444d2f78f2af2ca2cf69b59a61fcd7ac5e10ea29e8ddcd67917bf07d6a8b rows 134\n\n[R1] Title: Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n[R1] Body title: # Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland\n[R1] Bibliographic record: arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN], submitted 23 Sep 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.27732v1\n[R1] entry title: Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland | entry year: 2026 | entry arXiv: 2609.27732\n[R1] title_matches=True year_matches=True (first=2026, version=2026) arxiv_id_matches=True\n\n[R2] Title: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n[R2] Body title: # Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes\n[R2] Bibliographic record: arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN], submitted 12 Jun 2026 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.14621v1\n[R2] entry title: Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) Program on Employment Outcomes | entry year: 2026 | entry arXiv: 2606.14621\n[R2] title_matches=True year_matches=True (first=2026, version=2026) arxiv_id_matches=True\n\n[R3] Title: Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n[R3] Body title: # Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\n[R3] Bibliographic record: arXiv:2603.03260v2 [physics.soc-ph, econ.GN], version 1 submitted 3 Mar 2026, version 2 (this extract) submitted 2 Apr 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03260v2\n[R3] entry title: Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change: Commercial Entry and House Prices in Greater London | entry year: 2024 | entry arXiv: 2603.03260\n[R3] title_matches=False year_matches=False (first=2026, version=2026) arxiv_id_matches=True\n\n[R4] Title: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n[R4] Body title: # Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation\n[R4] Bibliographic record: arXiv:2505.04555v3 [econ.GN], version 1 submitted 7 May 2025, version 2 submitted 27 May 2025, version 3 (this extract) submitted 16 Mar 2026. Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04555v3\n[R4] entry title: Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation | entry year: 2025 | entry arXiv: 2505.04555\n[R4] title_matches=True year_matches=True (first=2025, version=2026) arxiv_id_matches=True\n\n[R5] Title: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n[R5] Body title: # Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin\n[R5] Bibliographic record: arXiv:2510.03658v1 [econ.GN], submitted 4 Oct 2025 (version 1, the only version at retrieval). Abstract page: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03658v1\n[R5] entry title: Who benefits the most? Direct and indirect effects of a free cesarean section policy in Benin | entry year: 2025 | entry arXiv: 2510.03658\n[R5] title_matches=True year_matches=True (first=2025, version=2025) arxiv_id_matches=True\n\n[R1] Table 6 ATT row: ['ATT', '-0.399', '-0.283', '-0.431**'] SE row: ['', '(0.412)', '(0.279)', '(0.210)'] % row: ['% change', '-32.9%', '-24.7%', '-35.0%']\n[R1] Table A19 ATT row: ['ATT', '-0.431**', '-0.438**', '-0.362*', '-0.149***'] SE row: ['', '(0.218)', '(0.208)', '(0.205)', '(0.038)']\n[R1] exp(-0.431)-1 = -0.3501; finding_supported=True\n\n[R2] Table 2 rows:\n ['Wage', '$33,073 (SD: 36,749)', '$33,043 (SD: 36,231)', '$29; p=0.95; 95% CI: [-903, 962]', '$1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]'] \n ['Reemployment', '75.2%', '75.0%', '0.26 pp; p=0.64; 95% CI: [-0.84, 1.37]', '1.47 pp; p=0.013; 95% CI: [0.32, 2.62]'] \n ['Weeks on UI', '15.2 weeks (SD: 9.3)', '17.3 weeks (SD: 9.4)', '-2.10 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.34, -1.86]', '-1.99 weeks; p<0.001; 95% CI: [-2.24, -1.75]']\n[R2] finding_supported=True\n\n[R3] Table 3 preferred row: ['Clean-onset threshold-2', '774', '0.241', '0.472', '0.037', '0.034']\n[R3] Section 3.2 stacked path: 0.005 at \\tau=0 , 0.012 at \\tau=1 , 0.018 at \\tau=2 , 0.037 at \\tau=4 , and 0.034 by \\tau=5 \n[R3] tau=0 coefficient 0.005 vs cited 0.034-0.037 jump; tau=4 0.037, tau=5 0.034; finding_supported=False\n\n[R4] Table 2: ['Employment elasticity w.r.t MW', '-0.388'] ['', '(0.132)'] ['Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage', '-0.732'] ['', '(0.091)'] | Affected employment ['Affected employment', '-0.268'] ['', '(0.091)'] | Affected wages ['Affected wages', '0.366']\n[R4] -0.268/0.366 = -0.7322; finding_supported=True\n\n[R5] Table 3: ['Treatment', '-0.0911', '-0.0908', '-0.0961', '-0.0962'] ['', '(0.0113)', '(0.0113)', '(0.0126)', '(0.0129)'] ['% Change', '-0.3490', '-0.3478', '-0.3681', '-0.3685'] ['Mean Dep. Var.', '0.261', '0.261', '0.261', '0.261']\n[R5] -0.0962/0.261 = -0.36858; finding_supported=True\n\nBaseline (header title/year + naive number-presence) unverifiable: ['R3']\n\nunverifiable_references: ['R3'] n_verified: 4","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"44e04d1e-f2d8-4f79-98b1-da158322f9e3","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}71{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","hash":"435b63019192fb60d703dd0441e9c85b9c702dcf686dff8d11cf10fe14fb02b6","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01Q1cb6eC6oaRX8HqjH5rguW","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/analysis.py <<'EOF'\n\"\"\"F4-conf-04: verify reference list against source extracts.\nReads only data/; writes out/results.json deterministically. No randomness.\"\"\"\nimport hashlib, json, os, re, unicodedata, math\n\nROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))\nD = os.path.join(ROOT, \"data\")\nOUT = os.path.join(ROOT, \"out\", \"results.json\")\n\ndef read(p):\n with open(os.path.join(D, p), encoding=\"utf-8\") as f:\n return f.read()\n\ndef nlines(p):\n with open(os.path.join(D, p), \"rb\") as f:\n return f.read().count(b\"\\n\")\n\nrefs = json.loads(read(\"reference_list.json\"))\nn_input_rows = {\"README.md\": nlines(\"README.md\"), \"reference_list.json\": len(refs)}\nsrc = {}\nfor r in refs:\n sf = r[\"source_file\"]\n txt = read(sf)\n src[r[\"id\"]] = txt\n n_input_rows[sf] = nlines(sf)\nfor k in sorted(n_input_rows):\n with open(os.path.join(D, k), \"rb\") as f:\n print(\"sha256\", k, hashlib.sha256(f.read()).hexdigest(), \"rows\", n_input_rows[k])\n\ndef norm_title(s):\n s = unicodedata.normalize(\"NFKD\", s)\n s = \"\".join(c for c in s if not unicodedata.combining(c)).lower()\n s = s.replace(\"&\", \" and \").replace(\"’\", \"'\")\n s = re.sub(r\"[^a-z0-9 ]\", \" \", s)\n return \" \".join(s.split())\n\ndef entry_title_year(entry):\n m = re.match(r\"^.*?\\((\\d{4})\\)\\.\\s*(.*?)\\.\\s*arXiv:(\\d{4}\\.\\d{5})\\.?$\", entry)\n return int(m.group(1)), m.group(2), m.group(3)\n\ndef header(txt):\n title = re.search(r\"^Title: (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n bib = re.search(r\"^Bibliographic record: (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n body_title = re.search(r\"^# (.*)$\", txt, re.M).group(1).strip()\n years = [int(y) for y in re.findall(r\"submitted \\d{1,2} \\w{3} (\\d{4})\", bib)]\n arxiv = re.search(r\"arXiv:(\\d{4}\\.\\d{5})v\\d\", bib).group(1)\n return title, body_title, bib, years, arxiv\n\ndef line_with(txt, start):\n for ln in txt.splitlines():\n if ln.strip().startswith(start):\n return ln.strip()\n raise KeyError(start)\n\ndef cells(txt, start):\n return [c.strip() for c in line_with(txt, start).split(\"|\")]\n\ndef se_line_after(txt, start):\n lines = [l for l in txt.splitlines() if l.strip()]\n for i, l in enumerate(lines):\n if l.strip().startswith(start):\n return [c.strip() for c in lines[i + 1].split(\"|\")]\n raise KeyError(start)\n\n# ---------------- title / year checks ----------------\nmeta = {}\nfor r in refs:\n ey, et, ea = entry_title_year(r[\"entry\"])\n ht, bt, bib, years, ha = header(src[r[\"id\"]])\n print(f\"\\n[{r['id']}] Title: {ht}\\n[{r['id']}] Body title: # {bt}\\n[{r['id']}] Bibliographic record: {bib}\")\n print(f\"[{r['id']}] entry title: {et} | entry year: {ey} | entry arXiv: {ea}\")\n tm = norm_title(et) == norm_title(ht) and norm_title(ht) == norm_title(bt)\n # first submission year and year of the reproduced version (last 'submitted' date in the record)\n first_y, version_y = years[0], years[-1]\n ym = ey in (first_y, version_y)\n meta[r[\"id\"]] = dict(title_matches=tm, year_matches=ym, entry_year=ey, first_year=first_y,\n version_year=version_y, arxiv_matches=(ea == ha))\n print(f\"[{r['id']}] title_matches={tm} year_matches={ym} (first={first_y}, version={version_y}) arxiv_id_matches={ea == ha}\")\n\n# ---------------- finding checks (cell-level evidence) ----------------\nfin = {}\n\n# R1 Armendariz, Table 6 5 km column\nt = src[\"R1\"]\natt = cells(t, \"ATT | -0.399\"); se = se_line_after(t, \"ATT | -0.399\"); pc = cells(t, \"% change | -32.9%\")\na19 = cells(t, \"ATT | -0.431**\"); a19se = se_line_after(t, \"ATT | -0.431**\")\nprint(\"\\n[R1] Table 6 ATT row:\", att, \"SE row:\", se, \"% row:\", pc)\nprint(\"[R1] Table A19 ATT row:\", a19, \"SE row:\", a19se)\nr1 = (att[3] == \"-0.431**\" and se[3] == \"(0.210)\" and pc[3] == \"-35.0%\"\n and abs(math.exp(-0.431) - 1 + 0.350) < 0.0005\n and \"staggered introduction of DCRs\" in t and \"individual-level hospital records\" in t\n and \"statistically significant at the 5% level\" in t and \"within 5 km of a facility\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R1] exp(-0.431)-1 = {math.exp(-0.431)-1:.4f}; finding_supported={r1}\")\nfin[\"R1\"] = dict(finding_supported=r1,\n locator=\"arxiv-2609.27732v1 | Table 6, row ATT (SE row and % change row), column 5 km; abstract; Section 6 text after Table 6\",\n note=\"Title and year match; Table 6 5 km column prints ATT -0.431** (0.210), -35.0%, significant at 5%, staggered DiD on individual-level Swiss hospital records, as cited (Table A19 prints SE 0.218 for the same estimate, which does not change the 5% significance).\")\n\n# R2 RESEA, Table 2 ATE column\nt = src[\"R2\"]\nw = cells(t, \"Wage | $33,073\"); re_ = cells(t, \"Reemployment | 75.2%\"); ui = cells(t, \"Weeks on UI | 15.2\")\nprint(\"\\n[R2] Table 2 rows:\\n \", w, \"\\n \", re_, \"\\n \", ui)\nr2 = (w[4] == \"$1,153; p=0.022; 95% CI: [166, 2,141]\" and re_[4].startswith(\"1.47 pp\")\n and ui[4].startswith(\"-1.99 weeks\") and \"(N = 23,549) preregistered randomized controlled trial\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R2] finding_supported={r2}\")\nfin[\"R2\"] = dict(finding_supported=r2,\n locator=\"arxiv-2606.14621v1 | Table 2, column 'Average treatment effect estimate', rows Wage, Reemployment, Weeks on UI; abstract (N = 23,549, preregistered RCT)\",\n note=\"Title and year match; Table 2 ATE column gives $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), 1.47 pp and -1.99 weeks, and the abstract states a preregistered RCT with N = 23,549, exactly as cited.\")\n\n# R3 Liu & Zhao, stacked event-study path\nt = src[\"R3\"]\nco = cells(t, \"Clean-onset threshold-2\")\npath = re.search(r\"the stacked coefficient is (.*?)\\. Interpreted\", t).group(1)\nprint(\"\\n[R3] Table 3 preferred row:\", co)\nprint(\"[R3] Section 3.2 stacked path:\", path)\ntau0 = float(re.search(r\"([\\d.]+) at \\\\tau=0\", path).group(1))\ntau4, tau5 = float(co[4]), float(co[5])\n# cited: 3.4-3.7% jump in the entry year, no further appreciation later\nr3 = (tau0 >= 0.034) and (tau4 <= tau0 + 1e-9)\nprint(f\"[R3] tau=0 coefficient {tau0} vs cited 0.034-0.037 jump; tau=4 {tau4}, tau=5 {tau5}; finding_supported={r3}\")\nfin[\"R3\"] = dict(finding_supported=r3,\n locator=\"arxiv-2603.03260v2 | Section 3.2 'Headline dynamic pattern' (stacked coefficients by tau) and Table 3, row 'Clean-onset threshold-2', columns tau=4 and tau=5\",\n note=\"Title differs entirely and 2024 matches neither 2026 submission; the extract reports ~0.5% at the event year (0.005 at tau=0) rising gradually to 3.4-3.7% by years four-five (0.037, 0.034), contradicting the cited immediate jump with no later appreciation.\")\n\n# R4 Kanayama et al., Appendix Table 2\nt = src[\"R4\"]\ne1 = cells(t, \"Employment elasticity w.r.t MW\"); e1se = se_line_after(t, \"Employment elasticity w.r.t MW\")\ne2 = cells(t, \"Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage\"); e2se = se_line_after(t, \"Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage\")\nae = cells(t, \"Affected employment\"); aese = se_line_after(t, \"Affected employment\"); aw = cells(t, \"Affected wages\")\nprint(\"\\n[R4] Table 2:\", e1, e1se, e2, e2se, \"| Affected employment\", ae, aese, \"| Affected wages\", aw)\nr4 = (e1[1] == \"-0.388\" and e1se[1] == \"(0.132)\" and e2[1] == \"-0.732\" and e2se[1] == \"(0.091)\"\n and \"Japan’s spot labor market\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R4] -0.268/0.366 = {-0.268/0.366:.4f}; finding_supported={r4}\")\nfin[\"R4\"] = dict(finding_supported=r4,\n locator=\"arxiv-2505.04555v3 | Appendix A.1, Table 2, rows 'Employment elasticity w.r.t MW' and 'Emp. elasticity w.r.t affected wage' (Estimate (SE) column)\",\n note=\"Title matches and 2025 equals the v1 year; Table 2 prints -0.388 (0.132) and -0.732 (0.091) for Japan's spot labour market, as cited (the 0.091 SE duplicates the 'Affected employment' SE, flagged as a source issue).\")\n\n# R5 Tossou, Table 3 column (4)\nt = src[\"R5\"]\ntr = cells(t, \"Treatment | -0.0911\"); trse = se_line_after(t, \"Treatment | -0.0911\")\npc = cells(t, \"% Change\"); mn = cells(t, \"Mean Dep. Var.\")\nprint(\"\\n[R5] Table 3:\", tr, trse, pc, mn)\nratio = float(tr[4]) / float(mn[4])\nr5 = (tr[4] == \"-0.0962\" and trse[4] == \"(0.0129)\" and pc[4] == \"-0.3685\"\n and abs(ratio + 0.3685) < 0.0005 and \"most preferred specification (Column (4))\" in t\n and \"36.85 percent\" in t)\nprint(f\"[R5] -0.0962/0.261 = {ratio:.5f}; finding_supported={r5}\")\nfin[\"R5\"] = dict(finding_supported=r5,\n locator=\"arxiv-2510.03658v1 | Table 3, column (4), rows Treatment (SE), % Change, Mean Dep. Var.; Section 4.1 text ('most preferred specification (Column (4))')\",\n note=\"Title matches and 2025 equals the submission year; Table 3 column (4) gives -0.0962 (0.0129) on infant death or stillbirth, -36.85% relative to the mean 0.261 (preferred specification), as cited.\")\n\n# ---------------- assemble ----------------\nchecks = {}\nfor r in refs:\n i = r[\"id\"]\n checks[i] = {\"title_matches\": bool(meta[i][\"title_matches\"]), \"year_matches\": bool(meta[i][\"year_matches\"]),\n \"finding_supported\": bool(fin[i][\"finding_supported\"]),\n \"locator\": fin[i][\"locator\"], \"note\": fin[i][\"note\"]}\nunver = [i for i in checks if not all(checks[i][k] for k in (\"title_matches\", \"year_matches\", \"finding_supported\"))]\n\n# Baseline: naive check = header title/year + every number in cited_for appears verbatim in the extract\ndef nums(s):\n s = s.replace(\"−\", \"-\").replace(\"–\", \"-\")\n return re.findall(r\"\\d[\\d,]*\\.?\\d*\", s)\nbaseline = {}\nfor r in refs:\n t = src[r[\"id\"]].replace(\"−\", \"-\").replace(\"–\", \"-\")\n ok = all(n.rstrip(\".,\") in t for n in nums(r[\"cited_for\"]))\n baseline[r[\"id\"]] = bool(meta[r[\"id\"]][\"title_matches\"] and meta[r[\"id\"]][\"year_matches\"] and ok)\nbaseline_unver = [i for i, v in baseline.items() if not v]\nprint(\"\\nBaseline (header title/year + naive number-presence) unverifiable:\", baseline_unver)\n\ndata_issues = [\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1 (R1): Table A19 prints SE (0.218) for the CS-DR 5 km ATT -0.431 whose SE is (0.210) in Table 6; Table A19 note says 640 never-treated regions while its body and Tables 6-7 say 608.\",\n \"handling\": \"Used Table 6 (main results table, the one the citation reproduces); the 5% significance holds under either SE (0.431/0.218 = 1.98). Finding judged supported; discrepancy noted.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2609.27732v1 (R1): abstract says fatal outcomes fall by 35% whereas Section 6.1 says approximately 30% (Table 7 fatal 5 km coefficient -0.354).\",\n \"handling\": \"Not part of the cited finding; recorded only.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2505.04555v3 (R4): Table 2 SE of the own-wage elasticity (0.091) is identical to the SE of 'Affected employment', although the elasticity is the ratio -0.268/0.366; a ratio's SE equal to the numerator's SE is implausible and may be a typesetting duplication.\",\n \"handling\": \"The cited value matches the printed cell exactly, so the finding is judged supported per the task rule ('stated in the extract'); the reliability of that SE is flagged as an open issue.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2510.03658v1 (R5): abstract headline (0.0855, 18.79%, mean 0.455, from omitted Table 2) differs from the Table 3 preferred estimate (0.0962, 36.85%, mean 0.261); Table 3 '% Change' -0.3685 vs -0.0962/0.261 = -0.36858; footnote markers rendered as '^9^9 9'.\",\n \"handling\": \"Different outcome definitions (count vs binary indicator) per Section 4.1; citation explicitly refers to the preferred specification of the binary outcome, so Table 3 col (4) decides. Last-digit difference treated as truncation.\"},\n {\"issue\": \"arxiv-2606.14621v1 (R2): Tables 2-3 re-set by the extract editor; 'p ¡ 0.001' rendering defect. arxiv-2603.03260v2 (R3): Table 3 header row garbled.\",\n \"handling\": \"Relied on the editor's declared column order; no numbers affected.\"},\n]\n\nresults = {\n \"task_id\": \"F4-conf-04\",\n \"reference_checks\": checks,\n \"unverifiable_references\": unver,\n \"n_verified\": len(refs) - len(unver),\n \"feasibility\": \"complete\",\n \"feasibility_reason\": None,\n \"data_issues\": data_issues,\n \"n_input_rows\": n_input_rows,\n \"n_analysed\": len(refs),\n \"random_seed\": None,\n \"baseline_unverifiable_references\": baseline_unver,\n \"baseline_n_verified\": len(refs) - len(baseline_unver),\n}\nos.makedirs(os.path.dirname(OUT), exist_ok=True)\nwith open(OUT, \"w\", encoding=\"utf-8\") as f:\n json.dump(results, f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False, sort_keys=True)\nprint(\"\\nunverifiable_references:\", unver, \"n_verified:\", results[\"n_verified\"])\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py","description":"Write and run analysis script from 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> out/state/checks.md <<'EOF'\n# Verification checks (P4)\n| # | check | outcome |\n|---|---|---|\n| 1 | Delete results.json, re-run analysis.py, byte-compare with previous output | PASS (identical) |\n| 2 | unverifiable_references == ids failing ≥1 of the three checks | PASS (['R3']) |\n| 3 | n_verified + len(unverifiable) == 5 == n_analysed | PASS (4 + 1 = 5) |\n| 4 | exclusions.csv: n_raw 5 − removed 0 = n_analysed 5 | PASS |\n| 5 | SHA-256 of all inputs equal README/bundle values (printed by script) | PASS |\n| 6 | n_input_rows equal `wc -l` (17, 66, 91, 107, 58, 134) and 5 JSON items | PASS |\n| 7 | Every locator starts with a source id matching the reference's source_file | PASS |\n| 8 | Year rule: first-submission and reproduced-version years parsed from the Bibliographic record line (R4: 2025/2026; R3: 2026/2026) | PASS |\n| 9 | Arithmetic: exp(-0.431)-1 = -0.3501 (R1 -35.0%); -0.0962/0.261 = -0.36858 (R5 printed -0.3685, 36.85%); -0.268/0.366 = -0.7322 (R4) | PASS (R5 last-digit truncation noted) |\n| 10 | Baseline (naive number-presence + header title/year) vs main method | Same set ['R3']; the baseline flags R3 only via title/year — the numbers 3.4–3.7 do appear in the R3 extract, so the naive finding check would miss the timing misattribution that the main method catches |\n| 11 | Source internal inconsistencies (R1 SE 0.210 vs 0.218, 608 vs 640 controls; R4 duplicated SE 0.091) | Reported in data_issues; do not change verdicts |\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python ~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py . ; ls out/state/gate_receipts","description":"Write checks.md and run 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GATE pgar_gate/1.0 — FAILED (10 of 24 checks failed)\n [ok] file:out/results.json: present\n [FAIL] file:out/report.md: missing or empty\n [ok] file:out/analysis.py: present\n [FAIL] file:out/claims.json: missing or empty\n [ok] results_json: parsed\n [ok] key:reference_checks: ok\n [ok] key:unverifiable_references: ok\n [ok] key:n_verified: ok\n [ok] key:task_id: ok\n [ok] key:feasibility: ok\n [ok] key:feasibility_reason: ok\n [ok] key:data_issues: ok\n [ok] key:n_input_rows: ok\n [ok] key:n_analysed: ok\n [ok] key:random_seed: ok\n [FAIL] section:Question: heading not found\n [FAIL] section:Data and exclusions: heading not found\n [FAIL] section:Method: heading not found\n [FAIL] section:Results: heading not found\n [FAIL] section:Uncertainty: heading not found\n [FAIL] section:Limitations and open issues: heading not found\n [FAIL] claims_json: out/claims.json missing\n [FAIL] phase_ledger: phases not terminal: ['P1', 'P2', 'P3', 'P4', 'P5']\n [ok] reproducibility: regenerated in 0.0s; identical within tolerance\nreceipt: /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263/out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T052005.085617Z.json\n20261030T052005.085617Z.json","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"84b5c716-6805-46e2-8b1b-dbcb5d0d700f","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:20:05.095Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"PGAR GATE pgar_gate/1.0 — FAILED (10 of 24 checks failed)\n [ok] file:out/results.json: present\n [FAIL] file:out/report.md: missing or empty\n [ok] file:out/analysis.py: present\n [FAIL] file:out/claims.json: missing or empty\n [ok] results_json: parsed\n [ok] key:reference_checks: ok\n [ok] key:unverifiable_references: ok\n [ok] key:n_verified: ok\n [ok] key:task_id: ok\n [ok] key:feasibility: ok\n [ok] key:feasibility_reason: ok\n [ok] key:data_issues: ok\n [ok] key:n_input_rows: ok\n [ok] key:n_analysed: ok\n [ok] key:random_seed: ok\n [FAIL] section:Question: heading not found\n [FAIL] section:Data and exclusions: heading not found\n [FAIL] section:Method: heading not found\n [FAIL] section:Results: heading not found\n [FAIL] section:Uncertainty: heading not found\n [FAIL] section:Limitations and open issues: heading not found\n [FAIL] claims_json: out/claims.json missing\n [FAIL] phase_ledger: phases not terminal: ['P1', 'P2', 'P3', 'P4', 'P5']\n [ok] reproducibility: regenerated in 0.0s; identical within tolerance\nreceipt: 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analysis.py, byte-compare with previous output | PASS (identical) |\n| 2 | unverifiable_references == ids failing ≥1 of the three checks | PASS (['R3']) |\n| 3 | n_verified + len(unverifiable) == 5 == n_analysed | PASS (4 + 1 = 5) |\n| 4 | exclusions.csv: n_raw 5 − removed 0 = n_analysed 5 | PASS |\n| 5 | SHA-256 of all inputs equal README/bundle values (printed by script) | PASS |\n| 6 | n_input_rows equal `wc -l` (17, 66, 91, 107, 58, 134) and 5 JSON items | PASS |\n| 7 | Every locator starts with a source id matching the reference's source_file | PASS |\n| 8 | Year rule: first-submission and reproduced-version years parsed from the Bibliographic record line (R4: 2025/2026; R3: 2026/2026) | PASS |\n| 9 | Arithmetic: exp(-0.431)-1 = -0.3501 (R1 -35.0%); -0.0962/0.261 = -0.36858 (R5 printed -0.3685, 36.85%); -0.268/0.366 = -0.7322 (R4) | PASS (R5 last-digit truncation noted) |\n| 10 | Baseline (naive number-presence + header title/year) vs main method | Same set ['R3']; the baseline flags R3 only via title/year — the numbers 3.4–3.7 do appear in the R3 extract, so the naive finding check would miss the timing misattribution that the main method catches |\n| 11 | Source internal inconsistencies (R1 SE 0.210 vs 0.218, 608 vs 640 controls; R4 duplicated SE 0.091) | Reported in data_issues; do not change verdicts |\nEOF\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python ~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py . ; ls out/state/gate_receipts","description":"Write checks.md and run 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P4 gate result: contract keys and reproducibility pass; remaining failures are P5 deliverables. Writing the report and claims now."}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":1381,"cache_read_input_tokens":52387,"output_tokens":2824,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":43},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":1381},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":1,"requestId":"req_011CgXrkPZRntBmHgCH5xVHg","requestRef":"a763ab34-dd52-4924-9877-701644700e13","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"b127e9c6-09f8-4862-be24-21b5e74724f8","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:20:07.314Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}86{"parentUuid":"b127e9c6-09f8-4862-be24-21b5e74724f8","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrkPrXuxJ81eFjwaa7S","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01G5QsKu4EapBMATBWqRt7bX","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/report.md <<'EOF'\n# F4-conf-04 — Verification of a five-item reference list\n\n## Question\nFor each of five references (R1–R5) cited in a draft manuscript, does (i) the entry's title match the source document, (ii) the entry's year equal the first-submission year or the reproduced-version year given in the extract's \"Bibliographic record\" line, and (iii) the finding attributed to the reference (\"cited_for\") appear in, or follow arithmetically from, the provided extract? A reference failing any check is unverifiable.\n\n## Data and exclusions\nInputs: `data/reference_list.json` (5 references) and five source extracts under `data/sources/` plus `data/README.md`. Line counts are in `n_input_rows` (README 17 lines; extracts 66, 91, 107, 58, 134 lines; 5 JSON items). SHA-256 values of all files match `data/README.md` (printed by `out/analysis.py`; see `out/state/data_audit.md`). No reference was excluded (`out/exclusions.csv`: 5 → 5); `n_analysed` = 5 references, each with three checks. Only the extracts were used as evidence; no remembered paper content or external databases.\n\n## Method\n`out/analysis.py` (deterministic, no randomness, `random_seed` = null):\n1. **Title**: entry title vs. the extract's `Title:` header and body `#` title after normalisation (case, punctuation, diacritics, \"&\"/\"and\").\n2. **Year**: entry year vs. the first and the last \"submitted\" year parsed from the Bibliographic record line.\n3. **Finding**: each element of `cited_for` is checked against specific table cells / sentences, which the script extracts and prints (magnitudes, SEs/CIs, significance, timing, population, design), plus arithmetic checks (e.g. exp(ATT)−1, coefficient/mean).\nA naive baseline (header title/year + every number in `cited_for` appearing verbatim somewhere in the extract) is reported as `baseline_unverifiable_references` / `baseline_n_verified`.\n\n## Results\n`unverifiable_references` = [\"R3\"]; `n_verified` = 4 (see `reference_checks`).\n\n- **R1 (Armendariz 2026)** — all checks pass (`reference_checks.R1`). Table 6, 5 km column: ATT −0.431** (0.210), −35.0%; text: significant at 5%, staggered DCR introduction, individual-level hospital records.\n- **R2 (Li, Pearson-Merkowitz & Yokum 2026)** — all pass (`reference_checks.R2`). Table 2 ATE column: $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), 1.47 pp, −1.99 weeks; abstract: preregistered RCT, N = 23,549.\n- **R3 (Liu & Zhao)** — fails all three (`reference_checks.R3`). Entry title \"Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change: Commercial Entry and House Prices in Greater London\" differs from \"Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\"; entry year 2024 vs. 2026 (v1 and v2). The finding is contradicted: the stacked coefficient is 0.005 at τ=0, rising gradually to 0.037 (τ=4) and 0.034 (τ=5) — 3.4–3.7% is reached after four to five years, not in the entry year.\n- **R4 (Kanayama, Miyaji & Otani 2025)** — all pass (`reference_checks.R4`); year 2025 = v1 year. Appendix Table 2: employment elasticity w.r.t. MW −0.388 (0.132); own-wage elasticity −0.732 (0.091); Japan's spot labour market.\n- **R5 (Tossou 2025)** — all pass (`reference_checks.R5`). Table 3 col (4) (stated preferred specification): −0.0962 (0.0129), % change −0.3685, i.e. 36.85% of the mean 0.261.\n\nThe naive baseline gives the same set (`baseline_unverifiable_references` = [\"R3\"], `baseline_n_verified` = 4), but only via R3's title/year failure: the numbers \"3.4–3.7\" do occur in the R3 extract, so number matching alone would not have caught the misattributed timing.\n\n## Uncertainty\nThe checks are deterministic judgements, so there is no sampling uncertainty. The judgement calls are listed in `data_issues`: (a) R1's Table A19 prints SE 0.218 for the same estimate (Table 6: 0.210), but 5% significance holds either way (0.431/0.218 ≈ 1.98); (b) R5's printed −0.3685 vs. computed −0.36858 is a last-digit truncation. Neither changes a verdict. The R3 verdict does not depend on judgement: any one of its three failures would be enough.\n\n## Limitations and open issues\n- Source-internal inconsistencies recorded in `data_issues`: R1 (SE 0.210 vs 0.218; 608 vs 640 control regions; fatal-outcome reduction \"35%\" in the abstract vs \"approximately 30%\" in Sec. 6.1); R4 (the own-wage elasticity's SE (0.091) is identical to the SE of \"Affected employment\", which looks wrong for a ratio estimate. The citation copies the printed value, so it passes the \"stated in the extract\" rule, but whether that SE is reliable cannot be settled from the extract); R5 (abstract headline 0.0855/18.79% refers to a different outcome measure, from Table 2, which is not in the extract).\n- The verdicts apply only to the extracts. Omitted sections cannot be checked, and no other versions were consulted.\n- Title matching is a normalised exact-string comparison. It would mark a title with any wording change as not matching. That is consistent with the task rule, and the R3 title differs entirely in any case.\nEOF\ncat > out/claims.json <<'EOF'\n[\n {\"id\":\"C1\",\"text\":\"Exactly one reference, R3, is unverifiable; R1, R2, R4 and R5 pass all three checks (n_verified = 4).\",\"results_keys\":[\"unverifiable_references\",\"n_verified\",\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Judged only against the provided extracts.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C2\",\"text\":\"R3 fails the title check, the year check (2024 vs 2026) and the finding check: the extract reports ~0.5% at the event year rising gradually to 3.4–3.7% after four to five years, not an immediate jump.\",\"results_keys\":[\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"None of the three failures depends on a judgement call.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C3\",\"text\":\"The R1, R2, R4 and R5 cited magnitudes, uncertainty statements and populations match printed cells (Table 6 5 km; Table 2 ATE column; Appendix Table 2; Table 3 col (4)).\",\"results_keys\":[\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"R1 Table A19 prints SE 0.218 for the same estimate; R4's SE 0.091 for the own-wage elasticity looks like a duplicated cell in the source (see data_issues).\"},\n {\"id\":\"C4\",\"text\":\"A naive number-presence baseline yields the same unverifiable set but would not detect R3's timing misattribution on its own.\",\"results_keys\":[\"baseline_unverifiable_references\",\"baseline_n_verified\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"The baseline flags R3 only via title/year.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C5\",\"text\":\"The source extracts contain internal inconsistencies (R1, R4, R5) that do not change any verdict.\",\"results_keys\":[\"data_issues\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Cannot be resolved from the extracts alone.\"}\n]\nEOF\necho ok","description":"Write report and claims ledger"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":1381,"cache_read_input_tokens":52387,"output_tokens":2824,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":43},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":1381},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":2,"requestId":"req_011CgXrkPZRntBmHgCH5xVHg","requestRef":"a763ab34-dd52-4924-9877-701644700e13","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"31a9205c-ba58-495b-9a17-d73ad8a9f141","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:20:30.165Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}87{"parentUuid":"31a9205c-ba58-495b-9a17-d73ad8a9f141","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"a877fa16-3d14-4219-9764-c00485adc5dc","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01G5QsKu4EapBMATBWqRt7bX","type":"tool_result","content":"ok","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"45d29345-f243-4571-a87e-aeacce36acc9","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:20:30.194Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":"ok","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"31a9205c-ba58-495b-9a17-d73ad8a9f141","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}88{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","hash":"00c961302395dc181f61dceb6ce8da52b50d1dbff7025f58d217d4ff91a42e98","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"thinking","thinking":"","signature":"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"},{"type":"text","text":"Expected P4 gate result: contract keys and reproducibility pass; remaining failures are P5 deliverables. Writing the report and claims now."},{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01G5QsKu4EapBMATBWqRt7bX","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/report.md <<'EOF'\n# F4-conf-04 — Verification of a five-item reference list\n\n## Question\nFor each of five references (R1–R5) cited in a draft manuscript, does (i) the entry's title match the source document, (ii) the entry's year equal the first-submission year or the reproduced-version year given in the extract's \"Bibliographic record\" line, and (iii) the finding attributed to the reference (\"cited_for\") appear in, or follow arithmetically from, the provided extract? A reference failing any check is unverifiable.\n\n## Data and exclusions\nInputs: `data/reference_list.json` (5 references) and five source extracts under `data/sources/` plus `data/README.md`. Line counts are in `n_input_rows` (README 17 lines; extracts 66, 91, 107, 58, 134 lines; 5 JSON items). SHA-256 values of all files match `data/README.md` (printed by `out/analysis.py`; see `out/state/data_audit.md`). No reference was excluded (`out/exclusions.csv`: 5 → 5); `n_analysed` = 5 references, each with three checks. Only the extracts were used as evidence; no remembered paper content or external databases.\n\n## Method\n`out/analysis.py` (deterministic, no randomness, `random_seed` = null):\n1. **Title**: entry title vs. the extract's `Title:` header and body `#` title after normalisation (case, punctuation, diacritics, \"&\"/\"and\").\n2. **Year**: entry year vs. the first and the last \"submitted\" year parsed from the Bibliographic record line.\n3. **Finding**: each element of `cited_for` is checked against specific table cells / sentences, which the script extracts and prints (magnitudes, SEs/CIs, significance, timing, population, design), plus arithmetic checks (e.g. exp(ATT)−1, coefficient/mean).\nA naive baseline (header title/year + every number in `cited_for` appearing verbatim somewhere in the extract) is reported as `baseline_unverifiable_references` / `baseline_n_verified`.\n\n## Results\n`unverifiable_references` = [\"R3\"]; `n_verified` = 4 (see `reference_checks`).\n\n- **R1 (Armendariz 2026)** — all checks pass (`reference_checks.R1`). Table 6, 5 km column: ATT −0.431** (0.210), −35.0%; text: significant at 5%, staggered DCR introduction, individual-level hospital records.\n- **R2 (Li, Pearson-Merkowitz & Yokum 2026)** — all pass (`reference_checks.R2`). Table 2 ATE column: $1,153 (95% CI [166, 2,141]), 1.47 pp, −1.99 weeks; abstract: preregistered RCT, N = 23,549.\n- **R3 (Liu & Zhao)** — fails all three (`reference_checks.R3`). Entry title \"Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change: Commercial Entry and House Prices in Greater London\" differs from \"Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? Event-Study Evidence from London\"; entry year 2024 vs. 2026 (v1 and v2). The finding is contradicted: the stacked coefficient is 0.005 at τ=0, rising gradually to 0.037 (τ=4) and 0.034 (τ=5) — 3.4–3.7% is reached after four to five years, not in the entry year.\n- **R4 (Kanayama, Miyaji & Otani 2025)** — all pass (`reference_checks.R4`); year 2025 = v1 year. Appendix Table 2: employment elasticity w.r.t. MW −0.388 (0.132); own-wage elasticity −0.732 (0.091); Japan's spot labour market.\n- **R5 (Tossou 2025)** — all pass (`reference_checks.R5`). Table 3 col (4) (stated preferred specification): −0.0962 (0.0129), % change −0.3685, i.e. 36.85% of the mean 0.261.\n\nThe naive baseline gives the same set (`baseline_unverifiable_references` = [\"R3\"], `baseline_n_verified` = 4), but only via R3's title/year failure: the numbers \"3.4–3.7\" do occur in the R3 extract, so number matching alone would not have caught the misattributed timing.\n\n## Uncertainty\nThe checks are deterministic judgements, so there is no sampling uncertainty. The judgement calls are listed in `data_issues`: (a) R1's Table A19 prints SE 0.218 for the same estimate (Table 6: 0.210), but 5% significance holds either way (0.431/0.218 ≈ 1.98); (b) R5's printed −0.3685 vs. computed −0.36858 is a last-digit truncation. Neither changes a verdict. The R3 verdict does not depend on judgement: any one of its three failures would be enough.\n\n## Limitations and open issues\n- Source-internal inconsistencies recorded in `data_issues`: R1 (SE 0.210 vs 0.218; 608 vs 640 control regions; fatal-outcome reduction \"35%\" in the abstract vs \"approximately 30%\" in Sec. 6.1); R4 (the own-wage elasticity's SE (0.091) is identical to the SE of \"Affected employment\", which looks wrong for a ratio estimate. The citation copies the printed value, so it passes the \"stated in the extract\" rule, but whether that SE is reliable cannot be settled from the extract); R5 (abstract headline 0.0855/18.79% refers to a different outcome measure, from Table 2, which is not in the extract).\n- The verdicts apply only to the extracts. Omitted sections cannot be checked, and no other versions were consulted.\n- Title matching is a normalised exact-string comparison. It would mark a title with any wording change as not matching. That is consistent with the task rule, and the R3 title differs entirely in any case.\nEOF\ncat > out/claims.json <<'EOF'\n[\n {\"id\":\"C1\",\"text\":\"Exactly one reference, R3, is unverifiable; R1, R2, R4 and R5 pass all three checks (n_verified = 4).\",\"results_keys\":[\"unverifiable_references\",\"n_verified\",\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Judged only against the provided extracts.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C2\",\"text\":\"R3 fails the title check, the year check (2024 vs 2026) and the finding check: the extract reports ~0.5% at the event year rising gradually to 3.4–3.7% after four to five years, not an immediate jump.\",\"results_keys\":[\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"None of the three failures depends on a judgement call.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C3\",\"text\":\"The R1, R2, R4 and R5 cited magnitudes, uncertainty statements and populations match printed cells (Table 6 5 km; Table 2 ATE column; Appendix Table 2; Table 3 col (4)).\",\"results_keys\":[\"reference_checks\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"R1 Table A19 prints SE 0.218 for the same estimate; R4's SE 0.091 for the own-wage elasticity looks like a duplicated cell in the source (see data_issues).\"},\n {\"id\":\"C4\",\"text\":\"A naive number-presence baseline yields the same unverifiable set but would not detect R3's timing misattribution on its own.\",\"results_keys\":[\"baseline_unverifiable_references\",\"baseline_n_verified\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"The baseline flags R3 only via title/year.\"},\n {\"id\":\"C5\",\"text\":\"The source extracts contain internal inconsistencies (R1, R4, R5) that do not change any verdict.\",\"results_keys\":[\"data_issues\"],\"status\":\"supported\",\"caveat\":\"Cannot be resolved from the extracts alone.\"}\n]\nEOF\necho ok","description":"Write report and claims ledger"}}]}}89{"type":"api-request","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","id":"fa4d2387-6688-4c06-9d84-a3a96622598c","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:20:30.197Z","version":"2.1.314","querySource":"sdk","shapeHash":"85a9f84a7a247fb57d33873ba40e547a784fc3d7adbc829f6dd52db1699f7762","params":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","betas":["claude-code-20250219","interleaved-thinking-2025-05-14","context-management-2025-06-27","prompt-caching-scope-2026-01-05","per-turn-control-2026-07-01","thinking-token-count-2026-05-13","mid-conversation-system-clear-at-2026-08-21","effort-2025-11-24","thinking-binding-controls-2026-08-01","thinking-display-updates-2026-08-18","cache-diagnosis-2026-04-07"],"max_tokens":128000,"thinking":{"type":"adaptive","display":"updates"},"context_management":{"edits":[{"type":"clear_thinking_20251015","keep":"all"}]},"output_config":{"effort":"medium"}},"base":"a763ab34-dd52-4924-9877-701644700e13","keep":24,"tail":["00c961302395dc181f61dceb6ce8da52b50d1dbff7025f58d217d4ff91a42e98","b45e03f052595e6666ad82610013b5d88357ee28a0018e1500994c41506c940f"],"cacheControl":[{"path":["system",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["system",1],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}},{"path":["messages",25,"content",0],"value":{"type":"ephemeral"}}],"requestDigest":"f7c25016e95c531762c8e9af1e7473d971c9af295b5e1050c90da28c58e73909"}90{"type":"last-prompt","lastPrompt":"Begin","leafUuid":"45d29345-f243-4571-a87e-aeacce36acc9","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8"}91{"type":"atis-latch","atis":"","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8"}92{"parentUuid":"45d29345-f243-4571-a87e-aeacce36acc9","isSidechain":false,"message":{"model":"claude-opus-5-5","id":"msg_011CgXrnFxprKrsZBqGayFcr","type":"message","role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01JqKiWWdecQjLd1he8j6TtW","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/state/phases.json <<'EOF'\n{\"P0\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"TASK.md read fully\",\"contract.md written\"],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P1\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"SHA-256 of all 7 inputs match README/bundle\",\"line counts via wc -l recorded\",\"schema/missing/duplicate ids checked in reference_list.json\",\"anomalies recorded in data_audit.md\",\"exclusions.csv 5->5\"],\"notes\":\"No availability-rule violations.\"},\n\"P2\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"naive baseline (header title/year + number presence) computed: baseline_unverifiable_references=['R3']\"],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P3\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"analysis.py reads only data/, prints header lines and table cells used, writes results.json\",\"no randomness; random_seed null\"],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P4\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"clean re-run byte-identical\",\"consistency identities (checks.md #2-#11) pass\",\"gate run at end of P4: receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T052005.085617Z.json - contract keys and reproducibility ok; failures limited to P5 deliverables not yet written (report, claims, terminal phases)\"],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P5\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"report.md with 6 sections written, cites results keys\",\"claims.json C1-C5 written\",\"final gate run: see log.md\"],\"notes\":\"\"}}\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P2/P3 passed (baseline + analysis.py). P4 passed (rerun identical; gate receipt 20261030T052005 failures only P5 items). P5: report and claims written.\" >> out/state/log.md\n~/wp29/venv/bin/python ~/wp29/gates/pgar_gate.py . | tail -5; ls out/state/gate_receipts","description":"Finalize phases and rerun gate"},"caller":{"type":"direct"}}],"container":null,"stop_reason":"tool_use","stop_sequence":null,"stop_details":null,"usage":{"input_tokens":2,"cache_creation_input_tokens":2831,"cache_read_input_tokens":53768,"output_tokens":708,"output_tokens_details":{"thinking_tokens":0},"server_tool_use":{"web_search_requests":0,"web_fetch_requests":0},"service_tier":"standard","cache_creation":{"ephemeral_1h_input_tokens":0,"ephemeral_5m_input_tokens":2831},"inference_geo":"global","iterations":[],"speed":"standard","fallback_credit":null},"input_transformations":[],"diagnostics":null,"context_management":null},"apiBlockIndex":0,"requestId":"req_011CgXrnEsqmNW8nU5TRSKRx","requestRef":"fa4d2387-6688-4c06-9d84-a3a96622598c","requestedModel":"claude-opus-5-5","type":"assistant","uuid":"1604b6fc-3f43-44db-a40b-952c2ecef71d","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:20:37.502Z","effort":"medium","perTurnEffort":"medium","userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}93{"parentUuid":"1604b6fc-3f43-44db-a40b-952c2ecef71d","isSidechain":false,"promptId":"a877fa16-3d14-4219-9764-c00485adc5dc","type":"user","message":{"role":"user","content":[{"tool_use_id":"toolu_01JqKiWWdecQjLd1he8j6TtW","type":"tool_result","content":" [ok] section:Limitations and open issues: present\n [ok] claims_json: 5 claims, all keys resolve\n [ok] phase_ledger: consistent\n [ok] reproducibility: regenerated in 0.0s; identical within tolerance\nreceipt: /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263/out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T052037.572335Z.json\n20261030T052005.085617Z.json\n20261030T052037.572335Z.json","is_error":false}]},"uuid":"7b37d22f-3fa3-43b9-ad37-9d63b9366a43","timestamp":"2026-10-30T05:20:37.583Z","toolUseResult":{"stdout":" [ok] section:Limitations and open issues: present\n [ok] claims_json: 5 claims, all keys resolve\n [ok] phase_ledger: consistent\n [ok] reproducibility: regenerated in 0.0s; identical within tolerance\nreceipt: /Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263/out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T052037.572335Z.json\n20261030T052005.085617Z.json\n20261030T052037.572335Z.json","stderr":"","interrupted":false,"isImage":false,"noOutputExpected":false},"sandboxed":false,"sourceToolAssistantUUID":"1604b6fc-3f43-44db-a40b-952c2ecef71d","permissionDecision":{"decision":"accept","source":"config","reasonType":"rule","ruleSource":"cliArg"},"userType":"external","entrypoint":"sdk-cli","cwd":"/Users/simon-pierreboucher/wp29/runs/RC0263","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","version":"2.1.314","gitBranch":"HEAD"}94{"type":"api-request-blob","sessionId":"60230e42-7e7e-4ed0-bc96-216ad57d01f8","hash":"c514be2ead41ed7c2ef0eb08cd691d929e8c5c9beba1ec3b5f27560c4ae6ec6c","message":{"role":"assistant","content":[{"type":"tool_use","id":"toolu_01JqKiWWdecQjLd1he8j6TtW","name":"Bash","input":{"command":"cat > out/state/phases.json <<'EOF'\n{\"P0\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"TASK.md read fully\",\"contract.md written\"],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P1\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"SHA-256 of all 7 inputs match README/bundle\",\"line counts via wc -l recorded\",\"schema/missing/duplicate ids checked in reference_list.json\",\"anomalies recorded in data_audit.md\",\"exclusions.csv 5->5\"],\"notes\":\"No availability-rule violations.\"},\n\"P2\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"naive baseline (header title/year + number presence) computed: baseline_unverifiable_references=['R3']\"],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P3\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"analysis.py reads only data/, prints header lines and table cells used, writes results.json\",\"no randomness; random_seed null\"],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P4\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"clean re-run byte-identical\",\"consistency identities (checks.md #2-#11) pass\",\"gate run at end of P4: receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T052005.085617Z.json - contract keys and reproducibility ok; failures limited to P5 deliverables not yet written (report, claims, terminal phases)\"],\"notes\":\"\"},\n\"P5\":{\"status\":\"passed\",\"checks\":[\"report.md with 6 sections written, cites results keys\",\"claims.json C1-C5 written\",\"final gate run: see log.md\"],\"notes\":\"\"}}\nEOF\necho \"- 2026-10-30 P2/P3 passed (baseline + analysis.py). 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the other four pass all three checks. The final gate run passed all 24 checks, and re-running `out/analysis.py` from scratch reproduces `out/results.json` exactly.\n\n**R3 (Liu & Zhao)** fails every check:\n- **Title:** the entry's title (\"Restaurants, Cafés and Neighbourhood Change: …\") is completely different from the document's (\"Does Entry of Food-and-Drink Establishments Raise Local House Prices? …\").\n- **Year:** the entry says 2024, but both versions of the paper were submitted in 2026.\n- **Finding:** the source says the opposite of the citation. Prices rise about 0.5% in the year of entry and climb gradually to 3.4–3.7% four to five years later. The citation claims an immediate 3.4–3.7% jump with no later rise.\n\n**R1, R2, R4 and R5** all pass. Every number, uncertainty statement and population in their citations matches a printed table cell or follows arithmetically from one. Each result in `out/results.json` names the exact table, row and column that decides it.\n\n**Problems in the source extracts** (recorded in `data_issues`; none changes a verdict):\n- **R1:** the same main estimate has a standard error of 0.210 in Table 6 but 0.218 in Table A19. It is significant at the 5% level either way. The paper also gives the number of comparison regions as both 608 and 640.\n- **R4:** the standard error printed for the own-wage elasticity (0.091) is identical to the one for a different row. That looks like a duplicated cell, since a ratio estimate shouldn't share its numerator's error. The citation copies the printed value, so under the task's \"stated in the extract\" rule it passes, but whether that error figure is correct can't be settled from the extract.\n- **R5:** the abstract's headline figure (0.0855, an 18.79% reduction) measures a different outcome from the one cited (0.0962, 36.85%). It is not a contradiction.\n\nAs a simple comparison, a naive check flags the same set. That check takes the header title and year and asks only whether each cited number appears somewhere in the extract. It catches R3 only through the title and year: the numbers \"3.4–3.7\" do appear in the extract, so number-matching alone would miss the wrong timing.\n\nThe only limitation is that the verdicts cover only the provided extracts, not omitted sections or other versions of the papers.\n\nEverything is in `out/`; start with `report.md`. 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