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spb/wp29_uqo

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1# Verification checks (P4)2| check | outcome |3|---|---|4| Clean re-run (deleted results.json/table1/figure1, re-ran) gives byte-identical results.json | PASS |5| ANOVA F/p cross-checked with statsmodels OLS dy~C(weekday) (F=0.26347, p=0.9015) | PASS |6| Monday contrast cross-checked with OLS on Monday dummy, HC1 SE: CI [-0.319, 0.419] vs Welch [-0.319, 0.420] | PASS (choice-insensitive) |7| Counts: 5217 − 215 − 1 = 5001 = n_analysed = n_train + n_test (2500+2501) = sum of table1 n | PASS |8| exclusions.csv sums: 5217 − (215+1) = 5001 | PASS |9| CI contains estimate; all weekday SE > 0; RMSEs > 0 | PASS |10| Chronology: max train date 2009-12-31 < min test date 2010-01-04; forecast means from train only | PASS |11| Magnitude: model RMSE (4.884) vs baseline (4.876) bp — same order, model slightly worse | PASS (plausible) |12| Conclusion rule: ANOVA p=0.90 ≥ 0.05 → no_detectable_effect | PASS |13
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