- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written. Decision: Welch interval for Monday contrast.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: audit done, hash verified, holidays dropped, outliers kept.
- 2026-10-30 P2 passed: zero-change RMSE baseline 4.876 bp.
- 2026-10-30 P3 passed: analysis.py written (Welch CI; HC1 robustness).
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed: clean rerun identical; consistency checks in checks.md.
- 2026-10-30 P5 passed: report.md and claims.json written. Conclusion no_detectable_effect.