1# F4-conf-01 — Treatment effects and uncertainty extracted from two published tables23## Question4Extract specified point estimates, standard errors, CI bounds and counts exactly as printed from (i) Armendariz (2026), arXiv:2609.27732v1 (staggered DiD, Swiss drug consumption rooms, Tables 6–7) and (ii) Li, Pearson-Merkowitz & Yokum (2026), arXiv:2606.14621v1 (RESEA RCT, Table 2); attach locators; derive a 95% CI from an SE and an SE from a 95% CI; identify the requested quantity that is not reported. Nothing is re-estimated.56## Data and exclusions7Inputs: `data/README.md` (10 lines), `data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt` (134 lines), `data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt` (58 lines) (`n_input_rows`); SHA-256s match the README/bundle (`input_sha256`). All 25 requested items were assessed (`n_analysed` = 25); nothing was excluded (`out/exclusions.csv`). Five input problems were found and recorded in `data_issues`:81. The 5 km CS-DR ATT −0.431 has SE (0.210) in Table 6 but (0.218) in Table A19; Table 6 is used, as the key definitions require.92. Tables 6/7 say 608 never-treated control regions, while the Table A19 note says 640. The Table 6 observation counts equal exactly 25 × (treated + 640), not 25 × (treated + 608). The count is reported as printed and the discrepancy is left unresolved.103. The abstract says fatal hospitalisations "fall by 35%". The Table 7 5 km fatal ATT of −0.354 implies about −29.8%. The text also calls the HIV estimates "close to zero" although the 5 km ATT is −0.340. Narrative statements were not used.114. The RESEA text gives the weeks-on-UI CI as positive magnitudes [1.75, 2.24]. Table 2 prints [−2.24, −1.75], and the Table 2 values are used.125. The RESEA text contains the rendering defect "p ¡ 0.001". It does not affect any key.1314## Method15`out/analysis.py` parses the pipe-delimited tables, matches row and column labels, and pairs each coefficient row with the parenthesised SE line that follows it. It removes stars, `$` and thousands separators. It prints every matched source line, then writes `out/results.json`. No randomness is involved (`random_seed` = null). Derived quantities use the normal critical value 1.96 (`derivation_notes`). The baseline, an alternative 2.0 rule, is kept as a sensitivity check (`baseline_dcr_att_5km_ci_rule2`, `baseline_ri_wage_ate_se_rule2`).1617## Results18**DCR (arXiv:2609.27732v1)**19- Table 6, 5 km: ATT −0.431** (`dcr_att_5km`), SE (0.210) (`dcr_att_5km_se`), Observations 17,250 (`dcr_obs_5km`).20- Table 6, 3 km: ATT −0.283 (`dcr_att_3km`), SE (0.279) (`dcr_att_3km_se`).21- Table 7: Narcotics 3 km 0.549*** (0.187) (`dcr_narcotics_att_3km`, `dcr_narcotics_att_3km_se`); Drug-related (fatal) 1 km −1.207*** (0.137) (`dcr_fatal_att_1km`, `dcr_fatal_att_1km_se`); HIV 5 km −0.340 (0.294) with no star (`dcr_hiv_att_5km`, `dcr_hiv_att_5km_se`).22- The HIV 5 km ATT is not marked significant at 10% (`dcr_hiv_att_5km_significant_10pct` = false). Its exact p-value is **not reported** in the extract (`dcr_hiv_att_5km_p_value` = null).23- Derived 95% CI of the 5 km ATT: [−0.8426, −0.0194] (`dcr_att_5km_ci_low`, `dcr_att_5km_ci_high`).2425**RESEA (arXiv:2606.14621v1), Table 2**26- Wage ATE $1,153 (`ri_wage_ate`), 95% CI [166, 2,141] (`ri_wage_ate_ci_low`, `ri_wage_ate_ci_high`). No SE is printed (`ri_wage_ate_se_reported` = false). The SE derived from the CI is 503.83 USD/yr (`ri_wage_ate_se_derived`).27- Control mean wage $33,043 (`ri_control_mean_wage`).28- Reemployment ATE 1.47 pp (`ri_reemployment_ate_pp`).29- Weeks-on-UI ATE −1.99 weeks, 95% CI [−2.24, −1.75] (`ri_weeks_ui_ate`, `ri_weeks_ui_ate_ci_low`, `ri_weeks_ui_ate_ci_high`).3031JSON numbers do not keep trailing zeros: 0.210 is stored as 0.21 and −0.340 as −0.34. The numeric values are identical to the printed ones.3233## Uncertainty34- **Standard errors:** the DCR paper (Tables 6, 7, A19) reports SEs clustered at the MedStat region level, in parentheses, plus stars (p<0.01/0.05/0.10). It prints no exact p-values or CIs for the table entries.35- **Confidence intervals:** the RESEA paper (Tables 2, 3) reports 95% CIs and two-sided p-values. It prints no SEs.36- **The derived DCR CI** (ATT ± 1.96 × SE) assumes the estimator is approximately normally distributed, with the printed clustered SE as its standard deviation. With 50 treated regions a t or bootstrap interval could be wider. A 2.0 rule gives [−0.851, −0.011] (`baseline_dcr_att_5km_ci_rule2`). Using the Table A19 SE of 0.218 instead would also widen the interval.37- **The derived RESEA SE** ((upper − lower)/3.92) assumes the printed CI is a symmetric Wald interval. This is supported by the near-equal half-widths of 987 and 988. The bounds are rounded to whole dollars, so the derived SE is accurate to about ±0.2. A 2.0 rule gives 493.75 (`baseline_ri_wage_ate_se_rule2`).38- For context only, a normal approximation of the HIV p-value gives about 0.25 (`check_dcr_hiv_att_5km_normal_approx_p_not_printed`). This is **not** a printed value and is not used for `dcr_hiv_att_5km_p_value`.3940## Limitations and open issues41- The exact p-value of the HIV 5 km ATT is not printed, so it is null by design. The task is otherwise complete (`feasibility` = "complete").42- Two inconsistencies inside the DCR source are unresolved and are reported, not corrected: SE 0.210 vs 0.218, and 608 vs 640 control regions.43- The derived quantities depend on the normal-approximation convention stated above.44