# F4-dev-01 — LFS September 2026: headline figures and assertion check

# Question

From the provided extract of Statistics Canada, The Daily, "Labour Force Survey, September 2026" (released 2026-10-09), extract (a) the national seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and monthly employment change for September 2026, with section locators, and (b) judge whether the release supports: "In September 2026, the unemployment rate among core-aged women (aged 25 to 54) rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.3%, and the unemployment rate among core-aged men also rose, by 0.2 percentage points, to 5.8%."

# Data and exclusions

Inputs: data/sources/statcan-daily-lfs-2026-09.txt (164 lines) and data/README.md (9 lines) (n_input_rows). The extract's SHA-256 matches the README (source_sha256). Nothing was excluded (out/exclusions.csv). Two minor input issues are recorded in data_issues: the README mentions tables ("RESEA", "London") that are not part of this extract, and chart/infographic titles appear as ## headings. Neither affects the results.

# Method

out/analysis.py checks the source hash, links each line to the most recent ## heading, and pulls the figures out with regular expressions. The sign comes from the wording ("declined" gives a negative number). The script checks that every national statement of each figure agrees, and it prints the source lines it matched. For the assertion, the script parses the core-aged women and men sentences and compares direction, size and level with the assertion. No randomness is involved (random_seed = null).

# Results

• National unemployment rate, September 2026: 6.5% (unemployment_rate_sep2026). Locator: section "Highlights" (locators.unemployment_rate_sep2026). The section "Unemployment rate increases to 6.5%" gives the same value (baseline_consistency.alternate_locator_unemployment_rate).
• Monthly employment change: −68,000 persons (employment_change_sep2026_persons). Locator: section "Highlights" (locators.employment_change_sep2026_persons). The section "Employment falls for second consecutive month" gives the same value (baseline_consistency.alternate_locator_employment_change).
• Assertion verdict: not_supported (assertion_verdict). Locator: section "Unemployment rate up for core-aged women" (assertion_locator). The women's part matches the release, but the release says the core-aged men's rate "fell 0.2 percentage points to 5.8%", which contradicts "also rose" (assertion_reason).
• Items assessed: 3 (n_analysed). Feasibility: complete (feasibility).

# Uncertainty

The values are printed point estimates, reported with no re-computation. The release itself does not give sampling uncertainty. The Note to readers says only that the analysis focuses on changes that are significant at the 68% confidence level. No extraction uncertainty remains: each national figure is stated twice, and the statements agree (baseline_consistency).

# Limitations and open issues

• The only evidence used is the provided extract. Its data tables are not reproduced, so nothing was checked against them.
• Each figure is printed in two sections. The locator reports "Highlights"; the other valid locators are recorded in baseline_consistency.
• The README's mention of tables from other documents looks like a template artifact. It was ignored (data_issues).