- 2026-10-29 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-29 P1 passed: audit done; one missing value (2025-10). Decision: model = AR(2) on first differences with intercept, OLS, sample from 1948, fixed a priori (no selection on test errors).
- 2026-10-29 P2 passed: naive baseline computed in analysis.py (rmse_naive_h1/h3, mae_naive_*).
- 2026-10-29 P3 passed: AR2_diff implemented; deterministic, no seed. Extra keys: DM test (dm_stat_h*, dm_pvalue_h*, mean_loss_diff_h*), n_regression_rows_last_window.
- 2026-10-29 P4: clean re-run identical; leakage test passed; 16 consistency checks pass (checks.md). Last-window AR coefficients ~0 (const 0.0003, 0.037, -0.042), i.e. model is close to a random walk with drift.
- 2026-10-29 P4 passed (gate receipt 20261030T040119.136024Z; only non-terminal-phase failure). P5: report and claims written.
- 2026-10-29 P5 passed; final gate receipt 20261030T040131.012947Z passed. Task complete pending review.