1{2 "task_id": "F3-dev-01",3 "model_name": "AR2_diff",4 "model_description": "AR(2) on first differences of UNRATE with intercept, estimated by OLS on the expanding window from 1948-01 (first usable difference regression row 1948-04) to the origin; levels forecast by iterating the difference recursion and cumulating; lag order fixed a priori, no selection.",5 "n_origins": 36,6 "first_origin": "2023-07-01",7 "last_origin": "2026-06-01",8 "n_evaluated_h1": 35,9 "rmse_naive_h1": 0.11710800875382403,10 "mae_naive_h1": 0.09142857142857148,11 "rmse_model_h1": 0.11985529982763829,12 "mae_model_h1": 0.0956535147914287,13 "n_evaluated_h3": 35,14 "rmse_naive_h3": 0.15856499343441843,15 "mae_naive_h3": 0.12000000000000005,16 "rmse_model_h3": 0.15974133959765854,17 "mae_model_h3": 0.12123991414571429,18 "dm_stat_h1": 2.5019139072700796,19 "dm_pvalue_h1": 0.017327515364319198,20 "dm_stat_h3": 1.5733474095224582,21 "dm_pvalue_h3": 0.12489906317464519,22 "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": -0.023459463644279088,23 "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": -0.0074187002929284596,24 "feasibility": "complete",25 "feasibility_reason": null,26 "data_issues": [27 {28 "issue": "Missing UNRATE value at 2025-10-01 (empty field)",29 "handling": "Pairs targeting this month kept in ledger with empty actual and excluded from error stats; naive at origin 2025-10 uses 2025-09; model forecasts from 2025-09 at that origin and linearly interpolates the gap (using only data <= origin) at later origins."30 },31 {32 "issue": "Final-vintage (revised) data, not real-time vintages",33 "handling": "Errors computed on data as given; no real-time validity claimed."34 }35 ],36 "n_input_rows": {37 "UNRATE.csv": 94538 },39 "n_analysed": 941,40 "random_seed": null41}