- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: audit done; 1 missing value (2025-10-01).
- 2026-10-30 Decision (made before computing any evaluation errors): model = ARIMA(2,1,0) without constant, Gaussian MLE via statsmodels SARIMAX (Kalman filter handles the missing month), estimation sample from 1948-01-01 to origin, re-estimated at every origin. No alternative models will be compared on the evaluation window (avoid selection on test data). COVID 2020 observations kept (genuine data).
- 2026-10-30 P2,P3 passed; P4 checks pass; running gate.
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed (gate receipt 20261030T053241); P5 report/claims written; running final gate.
- 2026-10-30 Added AR coefficient keys to results; reran gate.
- 2026-10-30 P5 passed; final gate PASSED (20261030T053324).