1{2 "task_id": "F3-dev-01",3 "model_name": "AR2_diff",4 "model_description": "AR(2) with intercept on first differences of the unemployment rate, estimated by OLS on an expanding window starting 1948-03 (first usable difference lag) up to each origin, interior missing months linearly interpolated within the window, iterated multi-step forecasts cumulated back to levels.",5 "n_origins": 36,6 "first_origin": "2023-07-01",7 "last_origin": "2026-06-01",8 "n_evaluated_h1": 35,9 "n_evaluated_h3": 35,10 "rmse_naive_h1": 0.11710800875382403,11 "mae_naive_h1": 0.09142857142857148,12 "rmse_model_h1": 0.11985531775639208,13 "mae_model_h1": 0.09565351428571428,14 "rmse_naive_h3": 0.15856499343441843,15 "mae_naive_h3": 0.12000000000000005,16 "rmse_model_h3": 0.15974130335380216,17 "mae_model_h3": 0.12123991428571426,18 "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": -0.023459616740160172,19 "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": -0.0074184717187923965,20 "feasibility": "complete",21 "feasibility_reason": null,22 "data_issues": [23 {24 "issue": "Missing observation(s) (empty value) at 2025-10-01",25 "handling": "Targets at missing months kept in ledger with empty actual and excluded from error statistics (affects origin 2025-09 h=1 and origin 2025-07 h=3); at origin 2025-10 the naive forecast uses 2025-09 and the AR forecast iterates from 2025-09; for later origins the interior gap is linearly interpolated inside the training window (uses only data <= origin) for AR estimation."26 }27 ],28 "n_input_rows": {29 "UNRATE.csv": 94530 },31 "n_analysed": 942,32 "random_seed": null33}