- 2026-10-30: P0 passed (contract written).
- 2026-10-30: P1 passed (audit, exclusions). Decision: own model = base-effect random walk with drift (univariate, no estimation), fixed before evaluation.
- 2026-10-30: P2/P3 passed (baselines + model in out/analysis.py; seed 20261030).
- 2026-10-30: P4 gate run 1: forecasts_chronology fails for all 40 h=1 rows because TASK.md requires target_date=YYYY-MM-01 of target month, which precedes the month-end origin. Decision: keep TASK.md format, mark P4 blocked by this rule, report honestly. Proceeding to P5 per stopping rule (write all files).
- 2026-10-30: P5 passed (report, claims). Final gate receipt 20261030T053512.664445Z: 64/65 ok; only forecasts_chronology fails due to the TASK.md target_date convention (kept deliberately, documented).