- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 Incident: a shell
cdmistake created data/out/state/ (contract/phases/log) inside data/; moved to out/state/ and removed data/out immediately. No original data file was touched (SHA-256 of all inputs re-verified against README afterwards: all match). - 2026-10-30 P1 audit run (out/state/audit_raw.txt). Decision (made BEFORE computing any evaluation error): my model = "base-effect-aware random walk with drift on log levels" (rw_drift_yoy): ln L_{last+j} = ln L_last + jmu, mu = mean monthly log change over the 36 months ending last(V) in vintage V; YoY forecast = 100(lnLhat_T - ln L_{T-12}) with L_{T-12} from vintage V. Uses RSAFS vintage V only; PAYEMS/UMCSENT not used (avoids specification search on 10 origins). No tuning on evaluation sample.
- 2026-10-30 P2 passed: baselines (naive/snaive/ar1) computed in analysis.py under required keys.
- 2026-10-30 P3 passed: analysis.py implemented (model fixed a priori), deterministic, no seed. Added exact sign test as supplementary uncertainty.
- 2026-10-30 P4: verify.py checks C1–C12 pass; gate run: only failure besides not-yet-written report/claims is forecasts_chronology (structural conflict with TASK.md target definition; documented in checks.md C13). Decision: keep TASK.md definition.
- 2026-10-30 P5: report.md and claims.json written.
- 2026-10-30 Final gate: 64/65 ok; only forecasts_chronology fails (structural). Not altering TASK.md-defined targets.