1[2 {"id":"C1","text":"At h=1 the BED model reduces RMSE relative to the naive forecast by about 45% and the DM test (Bartlett LRV, lag 0) rejects equal accuracy at 5% (DM=2.43, p=0.015).","results_keys":["rmse_model_h1","rmse_naive_h1","rel_improvement_rmse_h1","dm_stat_h1","dm_pvalue_h1","conclusion_code_h1"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Only 10 origins in one episode; asymptotic DM without HLN correction likely over-rejects; bootstrap interval also excludes zero but is crude."},3 {"id":"C2","text":"At h=3 the BED model has about 20% lower RMSE than naive, but the difference is not statistically significant (DM=1.55, p=0.12).","results_keys":["rmse_model_h3","rmse_naive_h3","rel_improvement_rmse_h3","dm_stat_h3","dm_pvalue_h3","conclusion_code_h3"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Bootstrap interval for the RMSE difference includes zero; BED only marginally below AR(1) at h=3 (untested)."},4 {"id":"C3","text":"Among baselines, AR(1) is slightly better than naive at both horizons and seasonal naive is worst at h=1 but beats naive at h=3.","results_keys":["rmse_ar1_h1","rmse_ar1_h3","rmse_snaive_h1","rmse_snaive_h3","rmse_naive_h1","rmse_naive_h3"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Point estimates only; no tests among baselines."},5 {"id":"C4","text":"First-release YoY growth of the h=1 targets differs from currently published growth by 0.55 pp on average, all revisions being downward, driven by a benchmark revision.","results_keys":["mean_abs_revision_h1_targets"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Sign pattern from supplementary.revisions_h1_targets; attribution to the benchmark revision is inferred from the level shift between vintages."},6 {"id":"C5","text":"PAYEMS or UMCSENT add predictive value for real-time retail-sales growth.","results_keys":[],"status":"not_evaluated","caveat":"Deliberately not tested to avoid model search on 10 evaluation origins."},7 {"id":"C6","text":"Six of ten origins (2025-10-31 to 2026-03-31) had last(V) two months before the origin; targets were defined from vintage content, not the calendar.","results_keys":["data_issues"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Details in supplementary.origins."}8]9