1{2 "task_id": "T1-forecast",3 "model_name": "BED (base-effect drift)",4 "model_description": "Base-effect drift model on the RSAFS vintage dated V only. Log level forecast ln L_{last+h} = ln L_last + h*mu, with mu = mean monthly log growth over the last 12 published months = g_last/12 (percent). Hence forecast g_T = 100*ln(L_last / L_{T-12}) + h*g_last/12 for T = last(V)+h, where L_last and L_{T-12} are read from vintage V (T-12 <= last(V) always). It exploits that 12-h of the 12 monthly growth terms in the target YoY are already published at the origin (known base effects), replacing only the h unknown months by their trailing 12-month average. No parameters are estimated; estimation window = last 13 levels of the vintage. PAYEMS and UMCSENT were not used. The specification was fixed before any out-of-sample error was computed; no tuning on the evaluation origins.",5 "n_origins": 10,6 "first_origin": "2025-10-31",7 "last_origin": "2026-07-31",8 "rmse_naive_h1": 0.996874361153601,9 "mae_naive_h1": 0.8487221999999999,10 "rmse_naive_h3": 1.4200403019751233,11 "mae_naive_h3": 1.2004486,12 "rmse_snaive_h1": 1.674542814799132,13 "mae_snaive_h1": 1.3066698,14 "rmse_snaive_h3": 1.3160788608225193,15 "mae_snaive_h3": 1.0658687,16 "rmse_ar1_h1": 0.940524354787796,17 "mae_ar1_h1": 0.7976509999999999,18 "rmse_ar1_h3": 1.1871176370926342,19 "mae_ar1_h3": 0.9526893999999999,20 "rmse_model_h1": 0.5502976390310066,21 "mae_model_h1": 0.48633190000000004,22 "rmse_model_h3": 1.1422196608203694,23 "mae_model_h3": 0.9339774000000001,24 "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.4479769362367869,25 "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.19564278617186803,26 "dm_stat_h1": 2.4289778933188826,27 "dm_pvalue_h1": 0.015141455540092164,28 "dm_stat_h3": 1.546577321548468,29 "dm_pvalue_h3": 0.12196520179653336,30 "conclusion_code_h1": "model_better_significant",31 "conclusion_code_h3": "model_better_not_significant",32 "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5482198028388884,33 "feasibility": "complete",34 "feasibility_reason": null,35 "data_issues": [36 {37 "issue": "Irregular publication timing: last(V) is two months before the origin for 2025-10-31 (last 2025-08), 2025-11-30 (last 2025-09), 2025-12-31 (last 2025-10), 2026-01-31 (last 2025-11), 2026-02-28 (last 2025-12), 2026-03-31 (last 2026-01); vintage 2026-04-30 adds 2026-02 and 2026-03 at once, so 2026-03 is never an h=1 target (it is the h=1 target of no origin) and 2026-02 is reached from the 2026-03-31 vintage.",38 "handling": "Targets defined as last(V)+h from the vintage content, per the task rule, not from the calendar."39 },40 {41 "issue": "Benchmark/annual revision of RSAFS levels: the current vintage is ~4% lower in level and its YoY growth is systematically lower than first release; the base level used in first_release jumps between targets 2026-07 and 2026-08 (rebasing between the 2026-08-31 and 2026-09-30 vintages), affecting h=3 targets 2026-08 and 2026-09.",42 "handling": "No adjustment: actuals are first-release values by definition; the revision is quantified in mean_abs_revision_h1_targets and discussed."43 },44 {45 "issue": "UMCSENT has 210 empty values (all before 1978, quarterly survey era) and is a current (not real-time) vintage.",46 "handling": "Not used by the model; would have been usable under the stated no-revision rule."47 },48 {49 "issue": "PAYEMS vintages sometimes extend beyond last(V) of RSAFS (e.g. 2025-12-31 vintage ends 2025-11 while RSAFS ends 2025-10).",50 "handling": "Not used by the model."51 },52 {53 "issue": "first_release.csv dates the first release of 2025-08 (last month of the 2025-10-31 vintage) to the unshipped 2025-09-30 vintage; its level in the 2025-10-31 vintage still equals level_first_release.",54 "handling": "None needed; checked for consistency."55 }56 ],57 "n_input_rows": {58 "first_release.csv": 28,59 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2025-10-31.csv": 1040,60 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2025-11-30.csv": 1041,61 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 1043,62 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-01-31.csv": 1044,63 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-02-28.csv": 1045,64 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-03-31.csv": 1046,65 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-04-30.csv": 1047,66 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-05-31.csv": 1048,67 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-06-30.csv": 1049,68 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-07-31.csv": 1050,69 "UMCSENT.csv": 887,70 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2025-10-31.csv": 404,71 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2025-11-30.csv": 405,72 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 406,73 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-01-31.csv": 407,74 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-02-28.csv": 408,75 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-03-31.csv": 409,76 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-04-30.csv": 411,77 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-05-31.csv": 412,78 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-06-30.csv": 413,79 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-07-31.csv": 414,80 "RSAFS_current.csv": 41781 },82 "n_analysed": 20,83 "random_seed": 20261030,84 "supplementary": {85 "bootstrap_rmse_diff": {86 "h1": {87 "rmse_diff_model_minus_naive": -0.44657672212259436,88 "ci95": [89 -0.6982530105268047,90 -0.261259132739286791 ],92 "share_draws_model_better": 1.0,93 "block_length": 2,94 "n_boot": 9999,95 "dm_lrv": 0.8091373211601599,96 "n_origins_model_smaller_sq_error": 897 },98 "h3": {99 "rmse_diff_model_minus_naive": -0.2778206411547539,100 "ci95": [101 -0.6376736715848398,102 0.14490466807245417103 ],104 "share_draws_model_better": 0.8764876487648765,105 "block_length": 3,106 "n_boot": 9999,107 "dm_lrv": 2.1185178340561874,108 "n_origins_model_smaller_sq_error": 6109 }110 },111 "origins": [112 {113 "origin": "2025-10-31",114 "last": "2025-08",115 "lag_months": 2116 },117 {118 "origin": "2025-11-30",119 "last": "2025-09",120 "lag_months": 2121 },122 {123 "origin": "2025-12-31",124 "last": "2025-10",125 "lag_months": 2126 },127 {128 "origin": "2026-01-31",129 "last": "2025-11",130 "lag_months": 2131 },132 {133 "origin": "2026-02-28",134 "last": "2025-12",135 "lag_months": 2136 },137 {138 "origin": "2026-03-31",139 "last": "2026-01",140 "lag_months": 2141 },142 {143 "origin": "2026-04-30",144 "last": "2026-03",145 "lag_months": 1146 },147 {148 "origin": "2026-05-31",149 "last": "2026-04",150 "lag_months": 1151 },152 {153 "origin": "2026-06-30",154 "last": "2026-05",155 "lag_months": 1156 },157 {158 "origin": "2026-07-31",159 "last": "2026-06",160 "lag_months": 1161 }162 ],163 "revisions_h1_targets": {164 "2025-09": -0.5502167925401702,165 "2025-10": -0.6641763167214578,166 "2025-11": -0.4389199822781502,167 "2025-12": -0.3286268165544084,168 "2026-01": -0.9756759757612237,169 "2026-02": -0.40995563089387543,170 "2026-04": -0.7481728291014038,171 "2026-05": -0.16533992600871716,172 "2026-06": -0.7440888135516674,173 "2026-07": -0.45702494497780943174 },175 "ar1_note": "AR(1) re-estimated by OLS at each origin on the vintage, 1993-02..last(V)"176 }177}