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# Data audit (P1)

file sha256 matches bundle rows cols first last missing dup dates
data/first_release.csv 1d1ae8b3cacf7799… True 28 5 2024-06-01 2026-09-01 0 0
data/RSAFS_current.csv 627d8bb386ac80f4… True 417 2 1992-01-01 2026-09-01 0 0
data/UMCSENT.csv 3076277f9f21f4bd… True 887 2 1952-11-01 2026-09-01 210 0
data/vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2025-10-31.csv d4b4c909ed321fbf… True 1040 2 1939-01-01 2025-08-01 0 0
data/vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2025-11-30.csv a05ef7fc50cfc339… True 1041 2 1939-01-01 2025-09-01 0 0
data/vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2025-12-31.csv 829dae087af61916… True 1043 2 1939-01-01 2025-11-01 0 0
data/vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-01-31.csv 8fd01c5d2740e869… True 1044 2 1939-01-01 2025-12-01 0 0
data/vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-02-28.csv 4a913e67ac5ffbb4… True 1045 2 1939-01-01 2026-01-01 0 0
data/vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-03-31.csv 919de86b07be9046… True 1046 2 1939-01-01 2026-02-01 0 0
data/vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-04-30.csv 06a8d663d9aaa61c… True 1047 2 1939-01-01 2026-03-01 0 0
data/vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-05-31.csv e2a152e874139acd… True 1048 2 1939-01-01 2026-04-01 0 0
data/vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-06-30.csv 19fbc6cd3547ffad… True 1049 2 1939-01-01 2026-05-01 0 0
data/vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-07-31.csv 3a3a6603fcc31c6e… True 1050 2 1939-01-01 2026-06-01 0 0
data/vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2025-10-31.csv 3ecb0832a391e726… True 404 2 1992-01-01 2025-08-01 0 0
data/vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2025-11-30.csv 4a683d85374690f1… True 405 2 1992-01-01 2025-09-01 0 0
data/vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2025-12-31.csv 436df4b5509b1dfe… True 406 2 1992-01-01 2025-10-01 0 0
data/vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-01-31.csv b92ab6a5c1dbdc56… True 407 2 1992-01-01 2025-11-01 0 0
data/vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-02-28.csv 2af0a3aaeeba81ef… True 408 2 1992-01-01 2025-12-01 0 0
data/vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-03-31.csv 0316fdf238d55d9f… True 409 2 1992-01-01 2026-01-01 0 0
data/vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-04-30.csv 02dcc697a1db3475… True 411 2 1992-01-01 2026-03-01 0 0
data/vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-05-31.csv 8c3fe35302135896… True 412 2 1992-01-01 2026-04-01 0 0
data/vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-06-30.csv 2f103157f4a9b7a3… True 413 2 1992-01-01 2026-05-01 0 0
data/vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-07-31.csv 52c04a8fce2effa7… True 414 2 1992-01-01 2026-06-01 0 0

# Schema and units

  • RSAFS vintages/current: observation_date (month start), level in millions of USD, SA. PAYEMS: thousands of persons, SA. UMCSENT: index 1966Q1=100. first_release.csv: target_month, first_release_vintage, two levels, yoy_first_release (percent, 100·log ratio).
  • All monthly series are gap-free (consecutive month starts); no duplicate dates; no missing values except UMCSENT (210 empty fields before 1978, quarterly survey period).

# Real-time design / anomalies

  • last(V): 2025-10-31→2025-08, 2025-11-30→2025-09, 2025-12-31→2025-10, 2026-01-31→2025-11, 2026-02-28→2025-12, 2026-03-31→2026-01, 2026-04-30→2026-03 (two months added), 2026-05-31→2026-04, 2026-06-30→2026-05, 2026-07-31→2026-06. Origins until 2026-03-31 are two months behind; from 2026-04-30 one month behind.
  • first_release.csv: 28 rows (2024-06..2026-09); only the 20 target months used (10 per horizon, overlapping); others unused (not an exclusion of analysed pairs). 2026-02 and 2026-03 both first released in the 2026-04-30 vintage; 2025-09 first released in 2025-11-30.
  • Level shift: first-release levels of 2026-08/09 (and their year-ago levels) are ~4% below those of 2026-07 vintages → annual/benchmark revision around Aug–Sep 2026. YoY within a vintage is largely unaffected.
  • Availability: RSAFS_current.csv contains post-origin revisions — used only for estimand (d). UMCSENT current file: final readings unrevised, so values ≤ origin month would be admissible; not used by the model. PAYEMS vintages admissible; not used.
  • Because target = last(V)+h and last(V) lags the origin, every h=1 target month (dated YYYY-MM-01) starts before the month-end origin date: it is a nowcast of a month not yet published in vintage V. All h=3 targets start after the origin date. This is a conflict with the gate's origin_date < target_date rule (see checks.md); the information rule itself (target not in vintage V) is respected.
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