1{2 "P0": {3 "status": "passed",4 "checks": [5 "TASK.md read completely",6 "contract.md written"7 ],8 "notes": ""9 },10 "P1": {11 "status": "passed",12 "checks": [13 "SHA-256 of 23 CSVs recomputed: 23 match README",14 "row/col counts, date ranges, NA, duplicates, gaps computed (data_audit.md)",15 "last(V) per origin tabulated; all 20 targets present in first_release.csv",16 "exclusions.csv written: 20-0=20"17 ],18 "notes": "RSAFS_current used only for estimand (d)"19 },20 "P2": {21 "status": "passed",22 "checks": [23 "naive, seasonal naive, AR(1) computed from vintage V only with the same first-release evaluation rule; stored as rmse_/mae_{naive,snaive,ar1}_h{1,3}",24 "naive and AR(1) independently recomputed for origin 2026-04-30 (statsmodels) - PASS"25 ],26 "notes": "baseline RMSE naive h1=0.997, h3=1.420"27 },28 "P3": {29 "status": "passed",30 "checks": [31 "out/analysis.py reads only data/, writes results.json, forecasts.csv, table1.csv, figure1.png",32 "no randomness (random_seed null)",33 "model pre-specified (RW with drift, 12-month drift window) before computing errors"34 ],35 "notes": ""36 },37 "P4": {38 "status": "blocked",39 "checks": [40 "clean-state rerun: results.json byte-identical, forecasts/table1 hashes identical - PASS",41 "independent recomputation of RMSE/MAE, DM (statsmodels HAC), rel. improvement, conclusion codes, revision - all PASS (checks.md)",42 "real-time: vintage_used==origin_date, 0 targets already published in vintage - PASS",43 "gate receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T053815.696144Z.json: passed=false; failures = report/claims not yet written (P5) and forecasts_chronology (40 h=1 rows target_date<=origin_date)"44 ],45 "notes": "Blocked only by gate rule origin_date<target_date, which contradicts TASK.md's target definition last(V)+h with YYYY-MM-01 dates under 1-2 month publication lags. Not fixable without misdating targets. All substantive P4 checks pass."46 },47 "P5": {48 "status": "blocked",49 "checks": [50 "report.md written with 6 required sections; every number cites a results.json key or the aux diagnostics file",51 "claims.json: 5 claims, all results_keys exist in results.json (gate claims check ok)",52 "gate receipt 20261030T053907.685901Z.json: passed=false; only failures = forecasts_chronology (spec conflict) and P5 not yet terminal; final receipt recorded below after status update",53 "final gate receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T053912.178034Z.json: passed=false, 64/65 ok; sole failure forecasts_chronology (40 h=1 rows) - irreconcilable with TASK.md target dating, not altered"54 ],55 "notes": "All deliverables complete. Blocked solely because dependency P4 is blocked by the gate chronology rule, which conflicts with TASK.md's target definition (see report, Limitations)."56 }57}