1{2 "task_id": "T1-forecast",3 "model_name": "RW-drift-base-effect",4 "model_description": "Base-effect-aware random walk with drift in log levels, applied to the RSAFS vintage dated V only. drift = mean monthly log change of RSAFS over the 12 months ending at last(V) (equal to g_last/1200); forecast log level ln L_T = ln L_last(V) + h*drift for T = last(V)+h; YoY forecast = 100*ln(L_T / L_{T-12}), where L_{T-12} is the (already published) base-month level in the same vintage. No estimated parameters, no estimation window beyond the last 13 levels of the vintage; PAYEMS and UMCSENT are not used, so the only information is the RSAFS vintage V (satisfies the availability rule). Specification fixed before any evaluation error was computed.",5 "n_origins": 10,6 "first_origin": "2025-10-31",7 "last_origin": "2026-07-31",8 "rmse_naive_h1": 0.9968743518607753,9 "mae_naive_h1": 0.8487221880004494,10 "rmse_naive_h3": 1.4200403737520468,11 "mae_naive_h3": 1.2004486337876656,12 "rmse_snaive_h1": 1.6745428991342528,13 "mae_snaive_h1": 1.3066698762542999,14 "rmse_snaive_h3": 1.3160788989552046,15 "mae_snaive_h3": 1.065868691479163,16 "rmse_ar1_h1": 0.9405244111185092,17 "mae_ar1_h1": 0.7976510573253133,18 "rmse_ar1_h3": 1.1871178147423016,19 "mae_ar1_h3": 0.9526895961443078,20 "rmse_model_h1": 0.5502977033274435,21 "mae_model_h1": 0.4863319392755308,22 "rmse_model_h3": 1.1422197516272885,23 "mae_model_h3": 0.9339774440853781,24 "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.4479768665928133,25 "dm_stat_h1": 2.4289778515909304,26 "dm_pvalue_h1": 0.015141457282752846,27 "conclusion_code_h1": "model_better_significant",28 "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.1956427628819436,29 "dm_stat_h3": 1.5465768014315204,30 "dm_pvalue_h3": 0.12196532729732024,31 "conclusion_code_h3": "model_better_not_significant",32 "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5482198028388884,33 "feasibility": "complete",34 "feasibility_reason": null,35 "data_issues": [36 {37 "issue": "Irregular publication timing: RSAFS vintages 2025-10-31 and 2026-03-31 end two months before the origin; vintage 2026-04-30 adds two months (2026-02, 2026-03) at once.",38 "handling": "Targets defined as last(V)+h per the task rule; h=1 targets therefore skip 2026-03 and the 2026-03-31 origin forecasts 2026-02 (h=1) and 2026-04 (h=3)."39 },40 {41 "issue": "First releases of 2026-02 and 2026-03 both date from the 2026-04-30 vintage; 2025-09 first appears in the 2025-11-30 vintage (publication disruption).",42 "handling": "Used first_release.csv as given (month-end granularity definition)."43 },44 {45 "issue": "PAYEMS vintage 2025-12-31 adds two months at once; PAYEMS annual benchmark revision (~ -800 thousand) in vintage 2026-02-28; ragged edge between PAYEMS and RSAFS.",46 "handling": "PAYEMS read and audited but not used by the model; no effect on forecasts."47 },48 {49 "issue": "Large RSAFS benchmark level revision after the last origin (current levels ~4% below first-release levels; first-release levels drop between 2026-07 and 2026-08 targets); annual revision visible in vintage 2026-07-31.",50 "handling": "Growth rates are always computed within a single vintage, never across vintages; the revision is quantified by estimand (d) using RSAFS_current only there."51 },52 {53 "issue": "UMCSENT has 210 empty values before 1978 (quarterly survey era); current vintage used.",54 "handling": "Not used by the model; admissible only for months <= month(V) by rule."55 },56 {57 "issue": "COVID-19 period (2020-2021) produces extreme YoY swings inside the AR(1) estimation sample.",58 "handling": "AR(1) baseline estimated on the full sample 1993-02..last(V) as the task prescribes; no trimming."59 }60 ],61 "n_input_rows": {62 "RSAFS_current.csv": 417,63 "UMCSENT.csv": 887,64 "first_release.csv": 28,65 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2025-10-31.csv": 1040,66 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2025-11-30.csv": 1041,67 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 1043,68 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-01-31.csv": 1044,69 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-02-28.csv": 1045,70 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-03-31.csv": 1046,71 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-04-30.csv": 1047,72 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-05-31.csv": 1048,73 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-06-30.csv": 1049,74 "vintages/PAYEMS_vintage_2026-07-31.csv": 1050,75 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2025-10-31.csv": 404,76 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2025-11-30.csv": 405,77 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 406,78 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-01-31.csv": 407,79 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-02-28.csv": 408,80 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-03-31.csv": 409,81 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-04-30.csv": 411,82 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-05-31.csv": 412,83 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-06-30.csv": 413,84 "vintages/RSAFS_vintage_2026-07-31.csv": 41485 },86 "n_analysed": 20,87 "random_seed": null,88 "supplementary": {89 "real_time_design": [90 {91 "origin": "2025-10-31",92 "last_rsafs": "2025-08-01",93 "last_payems": "2025-08-01",94 "lag_months": 295 },96 {97 "origin": "2025-11-30",98 "last_rsafs": "2025-09-01",99 "last_payems": "2025-09-01",100 "lag_months": 2101 },102 {103 "origin": "2025-12-31",104 "last_rsafs": "2025-10-01",105 "last_payems": "2025-11-01",106 "lag_months": 2107 },108 {109 "origin": "2026-01-31",110 "last_rsafs": "2025-11-01",111 "last_payems": "2025-12-01",112 "lag_months": 2113 },114 {115 "origin": "2026-02-28",116 "last_rsafs": "2025-12-01",117 "last_payems": "2026-01-01",118 "lag_months": 2119 },120 {121 "origin": "2026-03-31",122 "last_rsafs": "2026-01-01",123 "last_payems": "2026-02-01",124 "lag_months": 2125 },126 {127 "origin": "2026-04-30",128 "last_rsafs": "2026-03-01",129 "last_payems": "2026-03-01",130 "lag_months": 1131 },132 {133 "origin": "2026-05-31",134 "last_rsafs": "2026-04-01",135 "last_payems": "2026-04-01",136 "lag_months": 1137 },138 {139 "origin": "2026-06-30",140 "last_rsafs": "2026-05-01",141 "last_payems": "2026-05-01",142 "lag_months": 1143 },144 {145 "origin": "2026-07-31",146 "last_rsafs": "2026-06-01",147 "last_payems": "2026-06-01",148 "lag_months": 1149 }150 ],151 "dm_lrv_h1": 0.8091371398244311,152 "mean_loss_diff_h1": 0.6909309111103816,153 "dm_stat_hln_h1": 2.3043307191389353,154 "dm_pvalue_hln_t_h1": 0.0466674950347008,155 "n_origins_model_sqerr_lower_h1": 8,156 "dm_lrv_h3": 2.1185192376080635,157 "mean_loss_diff_h3": 0.7118487020783479,158 "dm_stat_hln_h3": 1.1573521026578926,159 "dm_pvalue_hln_t_h3": 0.27692062847238463,160 "n_origins_model_sqerr_lower_h3": 6,161 "mean_revision_h1_targets_signed": -0.5482198028388884162 }163}