- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: audit written; hashes match bundle; no exclusions needed (20/20 pairs evaluable).
- 2026-10-30 Decision (before computing any evaluation error): own model = "base-effect-aware random walk with drift" on log levels of the RSAFS vintage: L_{T} forecast = L_last·exp(h·drift), drift = mean monthly log change over the last 12 months of the vintage; YoY forecast = 100·ln(L̂_T / L_{T-12}) using the known base month in the same vintage. Rationale: YoY changes over h months are partly predictable from the known base-period monthly changes dropping out of the 12-month window; no parameter fitting -> no overfitting with 10 origins. PAYEMS/UMCSENT not used (would require estimation on a COVID-distorted sample; kept parsimonious).
- 2026-10-30 P2/P3 passed: baselines and model computed in analysis.py (model spec fixed beforehand).
- 2026-10-30 P4: reproducibility and consistency checks pass; gate fails forecasts_chronology for the 40 h=1 rows because TASK.md's target definition (last(V)+1, dated YYYY-MM-01) always precedes month-end origins. Not leakage; kept spec-compliant. P4 marked blocked.
- 2026-10-30 P5: report.md, claims.json written; final gate 64/65 (only forecasts_chronology).
- 2026-10-30 Resumed after controller gate failure (forecasts_chronology). Re-ran gate: same single failure. Decided not to alter dates: target_date = last(V)+h (YYYY-MM-01) and origin_date = vintage date are both fixed by TASK.md, and h=1 targets necessarily precede month-end origins. P4 stays blocked; documented in report.md.
- 2026-10-30 Second resume: gate re-run, same single forecasts_chronology failure; no data-faithful fix exists; P4 remains blocked.
- 2026-10-30 Third resume: gate re-run, identical single failure; P4 remains blocked (spec/gate conflict, no faithful fix).