- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1: data audit done; no exclusions; decision: model uses RSAFS vintage only (base-effect drift model), PAYEMS/UMCSENT not used; RSAFS_current only for (d).
- 2026-10-30 P2/P3 passed: baselines + BED model in out/analysis.py; h1 model better (DM p=0.015), h3 model better n.s. (p=0.122).
- 2026-10-30 P4: verification checks pass; gate forecasts_chronology fails for 40 h=1 rows because TASK.md target dates (YYYY-MM-01 of last(V)+1) precede month-end origins. Decision: keep TASK.md definition, do not relabel; mark P4/P5 blocked and document.
- 2026-10-30 P5: report.md and claims.json written.
- 2026-10-30 Final gate run 20261030T060441.223227Z: 64/65 pass; forecasts_chronology fails (documented conflict). Stopping.
- 2026-10-30 Controller resume: gate re-run, same single failure; not fixable without falsifying target_date; documented in report and phases.json. Stopping.
- 2026-10-30 Second controller resume: gate re-run (20261030T060535.228254Z.json), same single failure; no honest fix exists; stopping.
- 2026-10-30 Third controller resume: gate re-run (20261030T060548.765750Z.json), same single failure; no honest fix; stopping.