1# F4-conf-01 — Extracting treatment effects and their uncertainty from two published results tables23## Scientific question4Two open-access studies report treatment effects with uncertainty: a staggered difference-in-differences study of drug consumption room (DCR) openings in Switzerland (log hospitalisation rates; standard errors in parentheses) and a randomised evaluation of Rhode Island's RESEA programme (average treatment effects with 95% confidence intervals). The task is to extract specified point estimates, standard errors, confidence-interval bounds and sample counts **exactly as printed**, to attach to each value a locator (source id, table number, row label, column label), to derive two quantities that the sources do not print (a 95% confidence interval from a standard error, and a standard error from a confidence interval) while stating the convention used, and to recognise which requested quantity is not reported at all. The estimands are the printed numbers themselves; nothing is re-estimated.56## Inputs7- `data/sources/arxiv-2609.27732v1.txt` — extract of Armendariz (2026), *Do Drug Consumption Rooms Reduce Drug-Related Hospitalizations? Evidence from Switzerland*, arXiv:2609.27732v1 [econ.GN], CC BY 4.0; contains the abstract, Section 6 (Results, with Table 6 "Overall Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT)" by buffer distance and Table 7 "Overall ATT by Outcome Category and Buffer Zone") and Appendix Table A19. Outcomes are log hospitalisation rates per 100,000 inhabitants; ATTs are in log points; the line below each coefficient row holds standard errors in parentheses; stars denote p < 0.01 (***), p < 0.05 (**), p < 0.10 (*).8- `data/sources/arxiv-2606.14621v1.txt` — extract of Li, Pearson-Merkowitz & Yokum (2026), *Evaluating the Impact of Rhode Island's Self-Sustaining RESEA Program on Employment Outcomes*, arXiv:2606.14621v1 [econ.GN], CC BY 4.0; contains the abstract, Section 3 (Results, with Table 2: group means, treatment-control differences and average treatment effect (ATE) estimates with two-sided p-values and 95% confidence intervals) and Table 3 (ATE estimates under three estimators). Wages are annualised US dollars; reemployment is in percent / percentage points (pp); weeks on UI are weeks. Tables 2 and 3 were re-set in a one-row-per-outcome layout (see the extract header); values are verbatim.9- `data/README.md` — provenance, retrieval times, licences and SHA-256 of the extracts.1011## Information-availability rules12- The two extracts are the only admissible evidence; do not use remembered values from the papers or other versions.13- "As printed" means the sign and the number of decimals shown in the table that the key names (e.g. `-0.431`, `0.210`, `17250` for "17,250"). Where a value appears in more than one table, use the table named in the key's definition.14- Derived keys must be computed from the printed values of the named table with a stated convention (normal 1.96 or 2.0, or a t critical value); the convention must be written in `derivation_notes`.15- A locator has the form `<source id> | Table <n> | row "<row label>" | column "<column label>"`; for derived keys, name the table the inputs came from and say "derived".16- If a requested quantity is not printed in the source (and cannot be derived from printed quantities without additional assumptions), report `null` and say so in the locator (e.g. `not reported in arxiv-2609.27732v1`).1718## Required outputs19- `out/results.json` with the keys (all numbers "as printed" unless marked derived):2021| key | type | unit | meaning |22|---|---|---|---|23| `dcr_att_5km` | number | log points | Table 6, row "ATT", column "5 km" |24| `dcr_att_5km_se` | number | log points | Table 6, standard error of the 5 km ATT |25| `dcr_att_3km` | number | log points | Table 6, row "ATT", column "3 km" |26| `dcr_att_3km_se` | number | log points | Table 6, standard error of the 3 km ATT |27| `dcr_obs_5km` | integer | region-years | Table 6, row "Observations", column "5 km" |28| `dcr_narcotics_att_3km` | number | log points | Table 7, row "Narcotics", column "3 km" |29| `dcr_narcotics_att_3km_se` | number | log points | Table 7, standard error of that cell |30| `dcr_fatal_att_1km` | number | log points | Table 7, row "Drug-related (fatal)", column "1 km" |31| `dcr_fatal_att_1km_se` | number | log points | Table 7, standard error of that cell |32| `dcr_hiv_att_5km` | number | log points | Table 7, row "HIV", column "5 km" |33| `dcr_hiv_att_5km_se` | number | log points | Table 7, standard error of that cell |34| `dcr_hiv_att_5km_p_value` | number or null | — | the exact two-sided p-value of the HIV 5 km ATT if the source prints it; otherwise null |35| `dcr_hiv_att_5km_significant_10pct` | boolean | — | whether the source marks the HIV 5 km ATT as significant at the 10% level |36| `dcr_att_5km_ci_low`, `dcr_att_5km_ci_high` | number | log points | **derived**: 95% confidence interval of the Table 6 5 km ATT from its printed SE |37| `ri_wage_ate` | number | USD per year | Table 2, row "Wage", column "Average treatment effect estimate", point estimate |38| `ri_wage_ate_ci_low`, `ri_wage_ate_ci_high` | number | USD per year | Table 2, the 95% CI bounds printed for that ATE |39| `ri_wage_ate_se_reported` | boolean | — | whether the source prints a standard error for the wage ATE |40| `ri_wage_ate_se_derived` | number | USD per year | **derived**: standard error implied by the printed 95% CI (state the critical value used) |41| `ri_control_mean_wage` | number | USD per year | Table 2, row "Wage", column "Control" (mean) |42| `ri_reemployment_ate_pp` | number | percentage points | Table 2, row "Reemployment", ATE point estimate |43| `ri_weeks_ui_ate` | number | weeks | Table 2, row "Weeks on UI", ATE point estimate (sign as printed: negative = fewer weeks) |44| `ri_weeks_ui_ate_ci_low`, `ri_weeks_ui_ate_ci_high` | number | weeks | Table 2, the 95% CI bounds printed for that ATE (as printed, lower bound first) |45| `locators` | object | — | one locator string per key above (except the two booleans) |46| `derivation_notes` | object | — | {"dcr_att_5km_ci": "<convention>", "ri_wage_ate_se": "<convention>"} |47| `task_id` | string | — | "F4-conf-01" |48| `feasibility` | string | — | "complete", "partial" or "infeasible" — refers to the task as a whole |49| `feasibility_reason` | string or null | — | explanation if not complete |50| `data_issues` | array of {"issue","handling"} | — | problems detected in the inputs (rendering defects, internal inconsistencies of a source, etc.) and how they were handled; empty list if none |51| `n_input_rows` | object | lines / items | {file name: number of lines} for every file under `data/` that you read (text files: number of newline-terminated lines as reported by `wc -l`; JSON files: number of top-level items) |52| `n_analysed` | integer or null | — | number of reported items (values, assertions, effects or references) you actually assessed |53| `random_seed` | integer or null | — | null (no randomness is involved) |5455- `out/report.md` with the sections: Question; Data and exclusions; Method; Results; Uncertainty; Limitations and open issues. The Uncertainty section must say which reported uncertainties are standard errors and which are confidence intervals, and what the derived quantities assume.56- `out/analysis.py` — running `~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py` from the workspace root must regenerate `out/results.json` from `data/` only, deterministically (text parsing is acceptable; hard-coding the numbers is acceptable only if the script also prints the matched source lines).57- `out/claims.json` — a list of the central claims of the report: [{"id": "C1", "text": "...", "results_keys": ["..."], "status": "supported"|"unsupported"|"not_evaluated", "caveat": "..."}].5859## Constraints60- No network access. Python: `~/wp29/venv/bin/python` (numpy, pandas, scipy, statsmodels available; the standard library is sufficient for this task). Do not modify `data/`.61- The source extracts under `data/sources/` are the **only** admissible evidence. Do not rely on memory of the papers or on other versions of them; if a quantity is not in the extract, it is not available.62- Report numbers exactly as printed in the source (same sign, same number of decimals); do not round or rescale printed values unless the key definition asks for a transformation.63- This task is designed to be completed in well under 20 minutes of work.64