Task card — F2-conf-04
- Family / split: F2 Estimation and inference / confirmatory
- Question: Okun coefficient β in Δu_t = α + β g_t + e_t on U.S. quarterly data (u = quarterly mean of monthly UNRATE, g = 100·Δln GDPC1, 1960Q1–2019Q4, n = 240), OLS with a Newey–West HAC standard error; is β negative and significant at 5%?
- Data type: observed (real public data: FRED UNRATE monthly + GDPC1 quarterly, current vintage retrieved 2026-10-30; provenance and SHA-256 in
data/README.md). - Scope / prerequisites: frequency conversion (monthly → quarterly mean), log growth, exact sample window, OLS, HAC variance with a justified bandwidth, a scatter figure.
- Allowed information: the two FRED files only; observations outside the window serve only for the first differences.
- Expected artifacts: results.json (19 keys incl.
okun_negative_5pct,hac_lags,first_quarter/last_quarter), report.md (6 sections), analysis.py, claims.json, figure1.png. - Rubric summary: required criteria — β̂ and α̂ to 1e-4; n = 240 and sample mean growth to 1e-4 (window + definition check); R² to 1e-3; HAC SE inside a band from Bartlett lags 2–8 (±7%); integer bandwidth; CI from the HAC SE; negative and significant verdict. Critical checks — input row counts for both files (fabrication), feasibility "complete" (false completion), i.i.d. SE relabelled as HAC and CI/SE inconsistency (invalid inference), a different sample size without a data_issues entry (unreported substitution). Baseline = i.i.d. OLS SE.
- Oracle provenance: independent_code (numpy from the definition;
~/wp29-oracles/F2-conf-04/reference.py), cross-checked with statsmodels. - Null-truth: no (strongly negative relation; the naïve and HAC verdicts agree, but the naïve SE is 44% too small).
- Difficulty rationale: the estimand is unique only if the transformation is followed exactly (averaging, non-annualised log growth, window); real-data wrinkles (one empty monthly value in 2025, quarter alignment) must be handled without breaking the pipeline.
- Budget class: benchmark (4.00 USD cap, 25 min wall, 80 turns per session).
- Anticipated failure modes: annualised growth; end-of-quarter unemployment; off-by-one window; including 2020; HC instead of HAC; percentage instead of log growth; forgetting the figure.
- Contamination risk: medium (textbook relation; exact value not recallable under this definition and vintage).