1model,term,coef,se,ci_lo,ci_hi,p,n,llf,events2C1 primary: Y456 ~ P + X + region FE + year FE,P_modern_z,0.39790378484144,0.08918214639646332,0.2231067779043719,0.5727007917785081,8.131284893393963e-06,14637,-5672.972626457216,2692.03C2: Y456 ~ P + FE only,P_modern_z,0.7229243246287831,0.07967857684830817,0.5667543140060991,0.8790943352514671,1.1577632379582483e-19,15687,-6528.089258015958,2981.04C3: Y456 ~ P + K + X + FE (P given K),P_modern_z,0.22924427308006917,0.09387563776277562,0.04524802306502895,0.4132405230951094,0.014606161422636878,14637,-5627.074969974541,2692.05B1 baseline population only,D_modern_z,0.12594267679623367,0.07109162227063932,-0.013396902854219406,0.26528225644668674,0.07646855355079077,14754,-5769.778570873028,2710.06B2 baseline capacity only,K_modern_z,-0.6324390571653153,0.12569164780016462,-0.878794686853638,-0.3860834274769927,4.86222381583211e-07,15675,-6150.572623841682,2957.07B3 baseline development (gdppc) only,log_gdppc,-0.5569688251338336,0.09464003919975214,-0.7424633019653478,-0.3714743483023194,3.977439983972847e-09,15862,-6313.047510446031,2980.08B4 baseline persistence,y456_b5,0.13566387709403316,0.13289892982966736,-0.12481802537211484,0.39614577956018115,0.30734688842262725,15806,-6275.443015609264,2968.09B5 D and K separately,D_modern_z,0.16972157501358381,0.06950106487910981,0.033499487850528586,0.30594366217663904,0.01460616142263262,14637,-5627.074969974539,2692.010B5 D and K separately,K_modern_z,-0.7070134445104032,0.13742936225970592,-0.9763749945394268,-0.43765189448137953,2.681501580305378e-07,14637,-5627.074969974539,11Placebo: P with polyarchy in place of K (polyarchy not separately controlled),P_placebo_z,0.19689648797181336,0.05871082730792415,0.08182326644828203,0.3119697094953447,0.0007974864751106516,14754,-5777.87225067883,2710.012Placebo comparison: P_main with the same controls as the placebo,P_modern_z,0.446333634501256,0.0828013326218674,0.2840430225623959,0.6086242464401161,7.029473808128925e-08,14676,-5712.556048147622,2706.013Negative control: past events (t-5..t-1) ~ P_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE (no duration terms),P_modern_z,0.4359470058900018,0.09815066302576257,0.24357170635950715,0.6283223054204965,8.928811539479297e-06,14608,-5813.946618858069,2757.014Forward comparison for the negative control: future events ~ P_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE,P_modern_z,0.475241690571331,0.09908186802752562,0.28104122923738073,0.6694421519052812,1.6149846684551553e-06,14637,-5834.237016756066,2692.015"C4: conditional logit, country FE + decade FE",P_modern_z,1.313878132712599,0.09775172551732352,1.1222847506986449,1.5054715147265532,3.4784091628447276e-41,14637,,2692.016"C5: linear probability, country + year FE",P_modern_z_dm,0.11091972996929868,0.031351674099522706,0.049470448734234174,0.17236901120436318,0.0004032914904174095,14637,-4875.021383489231,2692.017