1model,term,coef,se,ci_lo,ci_hi,p,n,llf,events2C1 primary: Y456 ~ P + X + region FE + year FE,P_modern_z,0.3922687947606827,0.08921893423252436,0.21739968366493498,0.5671379058564304,1.099096174755617e-05,14637,-5678.550371306823,2692.03C2: Y456 ~ P + FE only,P_modern_z,0.7229243246287831,0.07967857684830817,0.5667543140060991,0.8790943352514671,1.1577632379582483e-19,15687,-6528.089258015958,2981.04C3: Y456 ~ P + K + X + FE (reparametrization of B5: beta_P = beta_D),P_modern_z,0.22481431764865165,0.09444802678560853,0.03969618514885895,0.40993245014844437,0.01729870781063778,14637,-5632.895171588186,2692.05B1 baseline population only,D_modern_z,0.12150826607689458,0.07124658532961264,-0.018135041169146215,0.26115157332293537,0.0881084971966551,14754,-5776.305342993084,2710.06B2 baseline capacity only,K_modern_z,-0.6311311734732039,0.13124190560307603,-0.888365308455233,-0.3738970384911749,1.517516830199489e-06,15675,-6166.041966794448,2957.07B3 baseline development (gdppc) only,log_gdppc,-0.5816251465131039,0.09637108956674491,-0.770512482063924,-0.3927378109622839,1.5870118731352746e-09,15862,-6353.052539809014,2980.08B4 baseline persistence,y456_b5,0.2458345978414203,0.13849583638276927,-0.02561724146880745,0.5172864371516481,0.07589253637739889,15806,-6295.0200354609,2968.09B5 D and K separately,D_modern_z,0.16644184635141004,0.06992483453394764,0.029389170664872677,0.3034945220379474,0.01729870781063917,14637,-5632.895171588186,2692.010B5 D and K separately,K_modern_z,-0.7011839796893495,0.13893510730735503,-0.9734967900117654,-0.4288711693669337,4.4916497721890495e-07,14637,-5632.895171588186,11B5 Wald test of beta_D + beta_K = 0 (restriction implied by P),D+K,-0.5347421333379395,0.15015111743715862,,,0.0003689392857068041,14637,,12Placebo: P with polyarchy in place of K (polyarchy not separately controlled),P_placebo_z,0.2020267600829871,0.05760023821421619,0.08913029318312335,0.3149232269828508,0.0004525177068698837,14754,-5786.982957537655,2710.013Placebo comparison: P_main with the same controls as the placebo,P_modern_z,0.4477254264122505,0.08200788224449172,0.28698997721304675,0.6084608756114542,4.7736607748738476e-08,14676,-5719.316648249614,2706.014Negative control: past events (t-5..t-1) ~ P_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE (no duration terms),P_modern_z,0.4359470058900018,0.09815066302576257,0.24357170635950715,0.6283223054204965,8.928811539479297e-06,14608,-5813.946618858069,2757.015Forward comparison for the negative control: future events ~ P_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE,P_modern_z,0.475241690571331,0.09908186802752562,0.28104122923738073,0.6694421519052812,1.6149846684551553e-06,14637,-5834.237016756066,2692.016"C4: conditional logit, country FE + decade FE",P_modern_z,1.329137190646608,0.09869472552992661,1.135695528607952,1.5225788526852642,2.440904644595632e-41,14637,,2692.017"C5: linear probability, country + year FE",P_modern_z_dm,0.10860863215596052,0.03153444395246181,0.04680112200913537,0.17041614230278568,0.000572906371323011,14637,-4859.202679956166,2692.018