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Scott G. and Cabaniss, Andrew H. 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A.}, editor={Shennan, Stephen}, year={2014}, month=Feb, pages={e87902} }374375@article{oster2019, title={Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence}, volume={37}, ISSN={1537-2707}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2016.1227711}, DOI={10.1080/07350015.2016.1227711}, number={2}, journal={Journal of Business \& Economic Statistics}, publisher={Informa UK Limited}, author={Oster, Emily}, year={2017}, month=June, pages={187–204} }376377@book{ostrom1990, title={Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action}, ISBN={9780511807763}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511807763}, DOI={10.1017/cbo9780511807763}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Ostrom, Elinor}, year={1990}, month=Nov }378379@article{ostrom2010, title={Beyond Markets and States: Polycentric Governance of Complex Economic Systems}, volume={100}, ISSN={0002-8282}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.3.641}, DOI={10.1257/aer.100.3.641}, number={3}, journal={American Economic Review}, publisher={American Economic Association}, author={Ostrom, Elinor}, year={2010}, month=June, pages={641–672} }380381@article{pemstein2018, title={The V-Dem Measurement Model: Latent Variable Analysis for Cross-National and Cross-Temporal Expert-Coded Data}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3167764}, DOI={10.2139/ssrn.3167764}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Pemstein, Daniel and Marquardt, Kyle L. and Tzelgov, Eitan and Wang, Yi-ting and Krusell, Joshua and Miri, Farhad}, year={2018} }382383@article{peregrine2017, title={Political participation and long-term resilience in pre-Columbian societies}, volume={26}, ISSN={0965-3562}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/dpm-01-2017-0013}, DOI={10.1108/dpm-01-2017-0013}, number={3}, journal={Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal}, publisher={Emerald}, author={Peregrine, Peter Neal}, year={2017}, month=June, pages={314–329} }384385@article{peregrine2019, title={Social Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters in Ancient Societies: A Test of Two Hypotheses}, volume={10}, ISSN={1948-8335}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-17-0052.1}, DOI={10.1175/wcas-d-17-0052.1}, number={1}, journal={Weather, Climate, and Society}, publisher={American Meteorological Society}, author={Peregrine, Peter N.}, year={2018}, month=Jan, pages={145–161} }386387@article{radner1993, title={The Organization of Decentralized Information Processing}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951495}, DOI={10.2307/2951495}, number={5}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Radner, Roy}, year={1993}, month=Sept, pages={1109} }388389@article{richerson2016, title={Cultural group selection plays an essential role in explaining human cooperation: A sketch of the evidence}, volume={39}, ISSN={1469-1825}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x1400106x}, DOI={10.1017/s0140525x1400106x}, journal={Behavioral and Brain Sciences}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Richerson, Peter and Baldini, Ryan and Bell, Adrian V. and Demps, Kathryn and Frost, Karl and Hillis, Vicken and Mathew, Sarah and Newton, Emily K. and Naar, Nicole and Newson, Lesley and Ross, Cody and Smaldino, Paul E. and Waring, Timothy M. and Zefferman, Matthew}, year={2014}, month=Oct }390391@article{rubinstein1989,392 author = {Rubinstein, Ariel},393 title = {The Electronic Mail Game: Strategic Behavior under ``Almost Common Knowledge''},394 journal = {American Economic Review},395 volume = {79},396 number = {3},397 pages = {385--391},398 year = {1989}399}400401@article{samejima1969, title={Estimation of Latent Ability Using a Response Pattern of Graded Scores}, volume={34}, ISSN={1860-0980}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf03372160}, DOI={10.1007/bf03372160}, number={S1}, journal={Psychometrika}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Samejima, Fumiko}, year={1969}, month=Mar, pages={1–97} }402403@book{scheidel2019, title={Escape from Rome: The Failure of Empire and the Road to Prosperity}, ISBN={9780691198835}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvg25294}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctvg25294}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={SCHEIDEL, WALTER}, year={2019}, month=Oct }404405@book{schelling1960,406 author = {Schelling, Thomas C.},407 title = {The Strategy of Conflict},408 publisher = {Harvard University Press},409 address = {Cambridge, MA},410 year = {1960}411}412413@book{scott1998,414 author = {Scott, James C.},415 title = {Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed},416 publisher = {Yale University Press},417 address = {New Haven},418 year = {1998}419}420421@book{scott2017, title={Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States}, ISBN={9780300182910}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1bvnfk9}, DOI={10.2307/j.ctv1bvnfk9}, publisher={Yale University Press}, author={SCOTT, JAMES C.}, year={2017}, month=Aug }422423@article{segal2007, title={The communication requirements of social choice rules and supporting budget sets}, volume={136}, ISSN={0022-0531}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2006.09.011}, DOI={10.1016/j.jet.2006.09.011}, number={1}, journal={Journal of Economic Theory}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Segal, Ilya}, year={2007}, month=Sept, pages={341–378} }424425@misc{seshat2026,426 author = {{Seshat: Global History Databank}},427 title = {Polaris-2026 data release (repository build\_polaris\_dataset, commit 55ca5fbc2b)},428 year = {2026},429 howpublished = {\url{https://seshatdatabank.info/data/}},430 note = {Accessed 2026-11-01}431}432433@article{shannon1948, title={A Mathematical Theory of Communication}, volume={27}, ISSN={0005-8580}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x}, DOI={10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x}, number={3}, journal={Bell System Technical Journal}, publisher={Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)}, author={Shannon, C. E.}, year={1948}, month=July, pages={379–423} }434435@article{sheehan2018, title={Coevolution of landesque capital intensive agriculture and sociopolitical hierarchy}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1714558115}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1714558115}, number={14}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Sheehan, Oliver and Watts, Joseph and Gray, Russell D. and Atkinson, Quentin D.}, year={2018}, month=Mar, pages={3628–3633} }436437@article{shin2020, title={Scale and information-processing thresholds in Holocene social evolution}, volume={11}, ISSN={2041-1723}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9}, DOI={10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9}, number={1}, journal={Nature Communications}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Shin, Jaeweon and Price, Michael Holton and Wolpert, David H. and Shimao, Hajime and Tracey, Brendan and Kohler, Timothy A.}, year={2020}, month=May }438439@article{simon1955, title={A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice}, volume={69}, ISSN={0033-5533}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1884852}, DOI={10.2307/1884852}, number={1}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Simon, Herbert A.}, year={1955}, month=Feb, pages={99} }440441@article{simon1962,442 author = {Simon, Herbert A.},443 title = {The Architecture of Complexity},444 journal = {Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society},445 volume = {106},446 number = {6},447 pages = {467--482},448 year = {1962}449}450451@book{skyrms2010, title={Signals: Evolution, Learning, and Information}, ISBN={9780191722769}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580828.001.0001}, DOI={10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580828.001.0001}, publisher={Oxford University PressOxford}, author={Skyrms, Brian}, year={2010}, month=Apr }452453@article{slingerland2020, title={Historians Respond to Whitehouse et al. (2019), “Complex Societies Precede Moralizing Gods Throughout World History”}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/2amjz}, DOI={10.31234/osf.io/2amjz}, publisher={Center for Open Science}, author={Slingerland, Edward and Monroe, M. Willis and Spicer, Rachel and Muthukrishna, Michael}, year={2019}, month=May }454455@article{sng2014, title={Size and dynastic decline: The principal-agent problem in late imperial China, 1700–1850}, volume={54}, ISSN={0014-4983}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2014.05.002}, DOI={10.1016/j.eeh.2014.05.002}, journal={Explorations in Economic History}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Sng, Tuan-Hwee}, year={2014}, month=Oct, pages={107–127} }456457@article{soifer2008, title={State Infrastructural Power: Approaches to Conceptualization and Measurement}, volume={43}, ISSN={1936-6167}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12116-008-9028-6}, DOI={10.1007/s12116-008-9028-6}, number={3-4}, journal={Studies in Comparative International Development}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Soifer, Hillel}, year={2008}, month=Aug, pages={231–251} }458459@article{spencer2010, title={Territorial expansion and primary state formation}, volume={107}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1002470107}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1002470107}, number={16}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Spencer, Charles S.}, year={2010}, month=Apr, pages={7119–7126} }460461@book{stanish2017, title={The Evolution of Human Co-operation: Ritual and Social Complexity in Stateless Societies}, ISBN={9781316632277}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316848128}, DOI={10.1017/9781316848128}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Stanish, Charles}, year={2017}, month=Aug }462463@article{stasavage2010, title={When Distance Mattered: Geographic Scale and the Development of European Representative Assemblies}, volume={104}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055410000444}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055410000444}, number={4}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={STASAVAGE, DAVID}, year={2010}, month=Nov, pages={625–643} }464465@book{stasavage2020, title={The Decline and Rise of Democracy: A Global History from Antiquity to Today}, ISBN={9780691201955}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691177465.001.0001}, DOI={10.23943/princeton/9780691177465.001.0001}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Stasavage, David}, year={2020}, month=June }466467@book{tainter1988,468 author = {Tainter, Joseph A.},469 title = {The Collapse of Complex Societies},470 publisher = {Cambridge University Press},471 address = {Cambridge},472 year = {1988}473}474475@book{tilly1992,476 author = {Tilly, Charles},477 title = {Coercion, Capital, and {E}uropean States, {AD} 990--1992},478 publisher = {Blackwell},479 address = {Oxford},480 year = {1992}481}482483@article{treier2008, title={Democracy as a Latent Variable}, volume={52}, ISSN={1540-5907}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00308.x}, DOI={10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00308.x}, number={1}, journal={American Journal of Political 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{Turchin, Peter and Gavrilets, Sergey},493 title = {Evolution of Complex Hierarchical Societies},494 journal = {Social Evolution \& History},495 volume = {8},496 number = {2},497 pages = {167--198},498 year = {2009}499}500501@article{turchin2015, title={Seshat: The Global History Databank}, volume={6}, ISSN={2373-7530}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.21237/C7clio6127917}, DOI={10.21237/c7clio6127917}, number={1}, journal={Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution}, publisher={California Digital Library (CDL)}, author={Turchin, Peter and Brennan, Rob and Currie, Thomas and Feeney, Kevin and Francois, Pieter and Hoyer, Daniel and Manning, Joseph and Marciniak, Arkadiusz and Mullins, Daniel and Palmisano, Alessio and Peregrine, Peter and Turner, Edward A.L. and Whitehouse, Harvey}, year={2015}, month=June }502503@book{turchin2016,504 author = {Turchin, Peter},505 title = {Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth},506 publisher = {Beresta Books},507 address = {Chaplin, CT},508 year = {2016}509}510511@article{turchin2018, title={Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708800115}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1708800115}, number={2}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Turchin, Peter and Currie, Thomas E. and Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Feeney, Kevin and Mullins, Daniel and Hoyer, Daniel and Collins, Christina and Grohmann, Stephanie and Savage, Patrick and Mendel-Gleason, Gavin and Turner, Edward and Dupeyron, Agathe and Cioni, Enrico and Reddish, Jenny and Levine, Jill and Jordan, Greine and Brandl, Eva and Williams, Alice and Cesaretti, Rudolf and Krueger, Marta and Ceccarelli, Alessandro and Figliulo-Rosswurm, Joe and Tuan, Po-Ju and Peregrine, Peter and 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Roth and C. 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