1C1 primary: Y456 $\sim$ P + X + region FE + year FE & P\_modern\_z & 0.398$^{***}$ & 0.089 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\2C2: Y456 $\sim$ P + FE only & P\_modern\_z & 0.723$^{***}$ & 0.080 & 15687 & 2981.00 \\3C3: Y456 $\sim$ P + K + X + FE (P given K) & P\_modern\_z & 0.229$^{**}$ & 0.094 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\4B1 baseline population only & D\_modern\_z & 0.126$^{*}$ & 0.071 & 14754 & 2710.00 \\5B2 baseline capacity only & K\_modern\_z & -0.632$^{***}$ & 0.126 & 15675 & 2957.00 \\6B3 baseline development (gdppc) only & log\_gdppc & -0.557$^{***}$ & 0.095 & 15862 & 2980.00 \\7B4 baseline persistence & y456\_b5 & 0.136 & 0.133 & 15806 & 2968.00 \\8B5 D and K separately & D\_modern\_z & 0.170$^{**}$ & 0.070 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\9B5 D and K separately & K\_modern\_z & -0.707$^{***}$ & 0.137 & 14637 & -- \\10Placebo: P with polyarchy in place of K (polyarchy not separately controlled) & P\_placebo\_z & 0.197$^{***}$ & 0.059 & 14754 & 2710.00 \\11Placebo comparison: P\_main with the same controls as the placebo & P\_modern\_z & 0.446$^{***}$ & 0.083 & 14676 & 2706.00 \\12Negative control: past events (t-5..t-1) $\sim$ P\_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE (no duration terms) & P\_modern\_z & 0.436$^{***}$ & 0.098 & 14608 & 2757.00 \\13Forward comparison for the negative control: future events $\sim$ P\_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE & P\_modern\_z & 0.475$^{***}$ & 0.099 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\14C4: conditional logit, country FE + decade FE & P\_modern\_z & 1.314$^{***}$ & 0.098 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\15C5: linear probability, country + year FE & P\_modern\_z\_dm & 0.111$^{***}$ & 0.031 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\16