1R: K = IRT latent & \_P & 0.146$^{*}$ & 0.088 & 94 \\2R: D = log population only & \_P & 0.265$^{**}$ & 0.105 & 70 \\3R: K = PC1 of blocks & \_P & 0.206$^{**}$ & 0.084 & 87 \\4R: quasi-polities dropped & P\_main\_z & 0.153 & 0.107 & 83 \\5R: crises starting $\geq$25 years after polity start & P\_main\_z & 0.250$^{***}$ & 0.091 & 76 \\6R: $\geq$12 of 14 items coded & P\_main\_z & 0.184$^{**}$ & 0.091 & 84 \\7R: no era FE & P\_main\_z & 0.252$^{**}$ & 0.105 & 87 \\8R: no region FE & P\_main\_z & 0.232$^{***}$ & 0.084 & 87 \\9R: no FE & P\_main\_z & 0.240$^{**}$ & 0.097 & 87 \\10R: SE clustered by NGA & P\_main\_z & 0.204$^{**}$ & 0.085 & 87 \\11R: SE clustered by polity & P\_main\_z & 0.204$^{**}$ & 0.096 & 87 \\12