| D-001 |
2026-11-01 |
0 |
Use Seshat Polaris-2026 (GitHub snapshot, commit 55ca5fbc2b) as the primary historical source; Equinox-2020 as robustness |
Current official snapshot per seshatdatabank.info/data; MIT-licensed repository; contains CrisisDB consequences |
before |
| D-002 |
2026-11-01 |
0 |
Obtain V-Dem v16 from the official vdemdata R package (commit f4dd26922e) rather than the web form |
Programmatic, hash-verifiable, same data; no credentials needed |
before |
| D-003 |
2026-11-01 |
1 |
Pre-registration frozen. SHA-256(research/preregistration.md) = ecda8804e17f931789be8e274ba1ff989000de356700a85b638b043928182e3a |
Mandate: pre-register before examining outcome associations |
before (no association computed) |
| D-004 |
2026-11-01 |
1 |
= z(\log D) - z(K)$ with $ standardized but not logged |
$ is a bounded share/latent score that can be 0; the mandate allows the log form only when strictly positive |
before |
| D-005 |
2026-11-01 |
1 |
Historical unit = polity, not polity-year; CrisisDB test = severity conditional on crisis; add polity hazard (Y2) and modern onset panel (Y4–Y6) |
93.7% of Polaris facts are undated; CrisisDB is crisis-selected (150/626 polities) |
before |
| D-006 |
2026-11-01 |
1 |
Macro-regions and era blocks fixed in configs/regions.yaml (10 macro-regions, 6 eras) |
Needed for FE and leave-region-out; 42 regions too many for N≈150 |
before |
| D-007 |
2026-11-01 |
1 |
No paid LLM API calls; literature verified via Crossref/public pages |
No keys configured; mandate forbids unapproved spending |
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