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Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters in Ancient Societies: A Test of Two Hypotheses}, volume={10}, ISSN={1948-8335}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-17-0052.1}, DOI={10.1175/wcas-d-17-0052.1}, number={1}, journal={Weather, Climate, and Society}, publisher={American Meteorological Society}, author={Peregrine, Peter N.}, year={2018}, pages={145--161} }408409@article{radner1993, title={The Organization of Decentralized Information Processing}, volume={61}, ISSN={0012-9682}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951495}, DOI={10.2307/2951495}, number={5}, journal={Econometrica}, publisher={JSTOR}, author={Radner, Roy}, year={1993}, pages={1109} }410411@article{richerson2016, title={Cultural group selection plays an essential role in explaining human cooperation: A sketch of the evidence}, volume={39}, ISSN={1469-1825}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x1400106x}, DOI={10.1017/s0140525x1400106x}, journal={Behavioral and Brain Sciences}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Richerson, Peter and Baldini, Ryan and Bell, Adrian V. and Demps, Kathryn and Frost, Karl and Hillis, Vicken and Mathew, Sarah and Newton, Emily K. and Naar, Nicole and Newson, Lesley and Ross, Cody and Smaldino, Paul E. and Waring, Timothy M. and Zefferman, Matthew}, year={2014}}412413@article{rubinstein1989,414 author = {Rubinstein, Ariel},415 title = {The Electronic Mail Game: Strategic Behavior under ``Almost Common Knowledge''},416 journal = {American Economic Review},417 volume = {79},418 number = {3},419 pages = {385--391},420 year = {1989}421}422423@article{samejima1969, title={Estimation of Latent Ability Using a Response Pattern of Graded Scores}, volume={34}, ISSN={1860-0980}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf03372160}, DOI={10.1007/bf03372160}, number={S1}, journal={Psychometrika}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={Samejima, Fumiko}, year={1969}, pages={1--97} }424425@book{scheidel2019, title={Escape from Rome: The Failure of Empire and the Road 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E.}, year={1948}, pages={379--423} }456457@article{sheehan2018, title={Coevolution of landesque capital intensive agriculture and sociopolitical hierarchy}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1714558115}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1714558115}, number={14}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Sheehan, Oliver and Watts, Joseph and Gray, Russell D. and Atkinson, Quentin D.}, year={2018}, pages={3628--3633} }458459@article{shin2020, title={Scale and information-processing thresholds in Holocene social evolution}, volume={11}, ISSN={2041-1723}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9}, DOI={10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9}, number={1}, journal={Nature Communications}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Shin, Jaeweon and Price, Michael Holton and Wolpert, David H. and Shimao, Hajime and Tracey, Brendan and Kohler, Timothy A.}, year={2020}}460461@article{simon1955, title={A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice}, volume={69}, ISSN={0033-5533}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1884852}, DOI={10.2307/1884852}, number={1}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, publisher={Oxford University Press (OUP)}, author={Simon, Herbert A.}, year={1955}, pages={99} }462463@article{simon1962,464 author = {Simon, Herbert A.},465 title = {The Architecture of Complexity},466 journal = {Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society},467 volume = {106},468 number = {6},469 pages = {467--482},470 year = {1962}471}472473@book{skyrms2010, title={Signals: Evolution, Learning, and Information}, ISBN={9780191722769}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580828.001.0001}, DOI={10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199580828.001.0001}, publisher={Oxford University PressOxford}, author={Skyrms, Brian}, year={2010}}474475@unpublished{slingerland2020,476 author = {Slingerland, Edward and Monroe, M. Willis and Sullivan, Brenton and Walsh, Robyn Faith and Veidlinger, Daniel and Alderson-Day, Ben and others},477 title = {Historians Respond to Whitehouse et al. (2019), ``Complex Societies Precede Moralizing Gods Throughout World History''},478 note = {PsyArXiv preprint, DOI 10.31234/osf.io/2amjz; published in Journal of Cognitive Historiography},479 year = {2020}480}481482@article{sng2014, title={Size and dynastic decline: The principal-agent problem in late imperial China, 1700--1850}, volume={54}, ISSN={0014-4983}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2014.05.002}, DOI={10.1016/j.eeh.2014.05.002}, journal={Explorations in Economic History}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Sng, Tuan-Hwee}, year={2014}, pages={107--127} }483484@article{soifer2008, title={State Infrastructural Power: Approaches to Conceptualization and Measurement}, volume={43}, ISSN={1936-6167}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12116-008-9028-6}, DOI={10.1007/s12116-008-9028-6}, number={3-4}, journal={Studies in Comparative International Development}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Soifer, Hillel}, year={2008}, pages={231--251} }485486@article{spencer2010, title={Territorial expansion and primary state formation}, volume={107}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1002470107}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1002470107}, number={16}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Spencer, Charles S.}, year={2010}, pages={7119--7126} }487488@book{stanish2017, title={The Evolution of Human Co-operation: Ritual and Social Complexity in Stateless Societies}, ISBN={9781316632277}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781316848128}, DOI={10.1017/9781316848128}, publisher={Cambridge University Press}, author={Stanish, Charles}, year={2017}}489490@article{stasavage2010, title={When Distance Mattered: Geographic Scale and the Development of European Representative Assemblies}, volume={104}, ISSN={1537-5943}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055410000444}, DOI={10.1017/s0003055410000444}, number={4}, journal={American Political Science Review}, publisher={Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, author={STASAVAGE, DAVID}, year={2010}, pages={625--643} }491492@book{stasavage2020, title={The Decline and Rise of Democracy: A Global History from Antiquity to Today}, ISBN={9780691201955}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691177465.001.0001}, DOI={10.23943/princeton/9780691177465.001.0001}, publisher={Princeton University Press}, author={Stasavage, David}, year={2020}}493494@book{tainter1988,495 author = {Tainter, Joseph A.},496 title = {The Collapse of Complex Societies},497 publisher = {Cambridge University Press},498 address = {Cambridge},499 year = {1988}500}501502@book{tilly1992,503 author = {Tilly, Charles},504 title = {Coercion, Capital, and {E}uropean States, {AD} 990--1992},505 publisher = {Blackwell},506 address = {Oxford},507 year = {1992}508}509510@article{treier2008, title={Democracy as a Latent Variable}, volume={52}, ISSN={1540-5907}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00308.x}, 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year={2009}}517518@article{turchin2009gavrilets,519 author = {Turchin, Peter and Gavrilets, Sergey},520 title = {Evolution of Complex Hierarchical Societies},521 journal = {Social Evolution \& History},522 volume = {8},523 number = {2},524 pages = {167--198},525 year = {2009}526}527528@article{turchin2015, title={Seshat: The Global History Databank}, volume={6}, ISSN={2373-7530}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.21237/C7clio6127917}, DOI={10.21237/c7clio6127917}, number={1}, journal={Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution}, publisher={California Digital Library (CDL)}, author={Turchin, Peter and Brennan, Rob and Currie, Thomas and Feeney, Kevin and Francois, Pieter and Hoyer, Daniel and Manning, Joseph and Marciniak, Arkadiusz and Mullins, Daniel and Palmisano, Alessio and Peregrine, Peter and Turner, Edward A.L. and Whitehouse, Harvey}, year={2015}}529530@book{turchin2016,531 author = {Turchin, Peter},532 title = {Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth},533 publisher = {Beresta Books},534 address = {Chaplin, CT},535 year = {2016}536}537538@article{turchin2018, title={Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization}, volume={115}, ISSN={1091-6490}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708800115}, DOI={10.1073/pnas.1708800115}, number={2}, journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, publisher={National Academy of Sciences}, author={Turchin, Peter and Currie, Thomas E. and Whitehouse, Harvey and François, Pieter and Feeney, Kevin and Mullins, Daniel and Hoyer, Daniel and Collins, Christina and Grohmann, Stephanie and Savage, Patrick and Mendel-Gleason, Gavin and Turner, Edward and Dupeyron, Agathe and Cioni, Enrico and Reddish, Jenny and Levine, Jill and Jordan, Greine and Brandl, Eva and Williams, Alice and Cesaretti, Rudolf and Krueger, Marta and Ceccarelli, Alessandro and Figliulo-Rosswurm, 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Roth and C. 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