| 2026-11-01 02:40 |
0 |
Read series conventions (HARMONISATION.md, template, README of WP33/WP29) |
WP35 = next free number; category economie/ created |
| 2026-11-01 02:44 |
0 |
Hardware/tool audit (sysctl, df, which, latexmk --version) |
M5 Max 18 c / 48 GiB / 1.0 TiB free; TeX Live latexmk 4.88; uv 0.11.7; R 4.6.1 |
| 2026-11-01 02:45 |
0 |
Connectivity probes (curl, 8 URLs) |
all HTTP 200 |
| 2026-11-01 02:46 |
0 |
Release discovery: Seshat data page → Polaris-2026 GitHub; Zenodo API; GitHub API (D-PLACE tags, vdemdata) ; Maddison page → dataverse 421302/421303 |
releases recorded in configs/sources.yaml |
| 2026-11-01 02:47 |
0 |
Project skeleton + venv (uv venv -p 3.12, uv pip install -e .) |
import check OK |
| 2026-11-01 02:48 |
0 |
python -m wp35.acquisition.fetch |
6/8 downloaded; Zenodo 406 and GitHub 415 caused by Accept: application/octet-stream → fixed to */*, re-run: 8/8 ; registry data/metadata/source_registry.json |
| 2026-11-01 02:50 |
0 |
Zenodo MD5 check (57a4f436…) ; sheet/column inspection of all files |
see results/logs/feasibility_report.md §2 |
| 2026-11-01 02:55 |
0 |
Feasibility report written |
results/logs/feasibility_report.md |
| 2026-11-01 03:05 |
1 |
Crossref verification of 173 candidate references (python -m wp35.validation.verify_bib) |
145 VERIFIED_CROSSREF; corrections + books in research/bib_overrides.csv (one guessed DOI for Tainter 1988 resolved to another title → discarded) |
| 2026-11-01 03:10 |
1 |
Subagent verification pass on the 18 closest works (abstracts/results read from primary sources) |
docs/novelty_search_report.md; "Social Compression Hypothesis" has no prior academic use; closest precursor Shin et al. 2020 |
| 2026-11-01 03:20 |
1 |
Structure-only inspection of CrisisDB codes, Seshat date coverage, V-Dem variables, EA variables (no predictor–outcome association) |
24,401/26,033 SC facts undated; CrisisDB 166 rows/150 polities |
| 2026-11-01 03:40 |
1 |
Pre-registration written and frozen (D-003, SHA-256 ecda8804e17f931789be8e274ba1ff989000de356700a85b638b043928182e3a) ; literature review + novelty matrix |
research/preregistration.md, research/literature_review.md, research/decisions.md, configs/regions.yaml |
| 2026-11-01 03:55 |
2 |
Glottolog 5.3 languages.csv registered + fetched (language families for Galton controls) |
registry 9 sources |
| 2026-11-01 04:10 |
2 |
python -m wp35.harmonization.build_panels (3 runs: EA033 code parsing fixed via ord; EA202 continuous; Y6 redefined as last regime year with irregular end type after inspecting France 1789–1960) |
data/processed/*.parquet, results/diagnostics/*, paper/figures/fig_seshat_temporal_coverage.pdf, fig_seshat_missingness.pdf, fig_dplace_focal_years.pdf, fig_modern_coverage.pdf, coverage_summary.json |
| 2026-11-01 04:15 |
2 |
Data dictionary + parser tests (pytest: 6 passed) |
data/metadata/data_dictionary.md, tests/test_harmonization.py |
| 2026-11-01 04:40 |
3 |
Formal framework drafted (fork agent) and reviewed: Theorems 1–5 with proofs, Conjectures C1–C3, mapping to tests; Lindley 1952 / Loynes 1962 verified by Crossref and added |
research/framework.md |
| 2026-11-01 04:50 |
3 |
python -m wp35.measurement.build_indices (2 runs; IRT regularized with MAP priors after boundary estimates) |
data/processed/seshat_indices.parquet, seshat_crisis_indices.parquet, modern_indices.parquet; results/empirical/measurement_*, power_h2a_*.csv; figures fig_measurement_DK.pdf, fig_irt_invariance.pdf |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 |
3 |
Measurement report: corr(D,K)=0.84, P keeps 16.6% of variance; MDE Y1b≈0.6 (underpowered), Y1≈0.15 |
research/measurement.md |
| 2026-11-01 05:30 |
4 |
python -m wp35.econometrics.h1 (Seshat OLS/mixed, EA Conley + ordered logit, modern within/differences) |
results/empirical/h1_*.csv |
| 2026-11-01 05:45 |
4 |
python -m wp35.econometrics.h2_seshat — FIRST predictor–outcome estimation (4 runs: binary spec switched to region-FE/HC1 after quasi-separation; H5 fallbacks for singular held-out designs) |
results/empirical/h2_seshat_*.csv, h4_seshat_summary.json, h5_seshat_blocks.csv, h2_seshat_y2_y3.csv; log results/logs/h2_seshat_run.log |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 |
4 |
python -m wp35.econometrics.h2_modern run 1 (placebo collinear with polyarchy control; negative control separated by duration terms → specs fixed, run 2 launched) |
results/empirical/h2_modern_*.csv, h4_modern_*, h5_modern_blocks.csv |
| 2026-11-01 06:10 |
4 |
research/identification.md written |
— |
| 2026-11-01 06:20 |
5 |
Simulation model + factorial runner written; smoke test showed message count bug (scalar) and root saturation → fixed, admin capacity made a factor; python -m wp35.simulations.run_experiments |
results/simulated/runs_main.parquet (6,048 runs), runs_ablation.parquet (488 runs) |
| 2026-11-01 06:40 |
4 |
python -m wp35.econometrics.h2_modern run 2 (placebo without polyarchy control; negative control without duration terms; H4 curve export) |
results/empirical/h2_modern_primary.csv, h2_modern_robustness.csv, h2_modern_cv_*, h4_modern_*, h5_modern_blocks.csv |
| 2026-11-01 06:50 |
5 |
Simulation model revised after inspection (Shannon code lengths to match Theorem 3; symmetric link removal 50%; spatially correlated dialects; fixed pre/post window for difference-in-differences; high-gain break-even cells) ; run_experiments + analyze rerun |
results/simulated/runs_main.parquet (6,048), runs_ablation.parquet (584), simulation_summary.json, cells_main.csv, paired_vs_none.csv, institution_loss_shares.csv, shock_effects.csv, ablation_*.csv; figures fig_sim_*.pdf |
| 2026-11-01 07:30 |
7 |
python -m wp35.visualization.make_all (26 table fragments, 15 figures) ; python -m wp35.validation.build_bib (182 entries: Crossref by DOI + verified manual) |
paper/tables/*.tex, paper/figures/*.pdf, paper/references.bib |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 |
8 |
Paper written (sections: introduction, literature [fork], theory [fork], data, methods, results_historical, results_modern, simulation, synthesis, limitations, conclusion, appendix) ; latexmk -pdf main.tex — fixes: \input{} → primitive \input in tabulars (misplaced \noalign), aer.bst header/month/underscore/encoding issues in references.bib, novelty table rotated |
paper/main.pdf 73 pages, 0 undefined citations/references |
| 2026-11-01 08:20 |
4 |
python -m wp35.econometrics.leakage_check (fold-internal PCA loadings and standardization, LORO) |
results/empirical/h2_seshat_cv_noleakage.csv: P beats D-only in 2/10 folds (main run: 3/10) ; amendment A-001 |
| 2026-11-01 09:00 |
9 |
Three adversarial reviews (independent agents) written to docs/reviews/ |
major revision ×3 |
| 2026-11-01 09:30 |
9 |
Corrections A-002…A-007: crisis-level robustness variants (previously never computed), item-level CrisisDB analysis, cultural-sphere hold-outs, Cox periodization control, placebo respecified (was a tautology), epidemic covariate dropped, common sample, Wald test of β_D+β_K=0, unseen-FE-level mapping + polity-blocked folds, t_since left-censoring, simulation accounting (hops, every administrator charged, equal budgets, load-proportional allocation), Theorem 1 remark ; reruns: build_indices, h2_seshat (×3), h2_modern (background), run_experiments + analyze (×4), make_all, latexmk |
results/empirical/* and results/simulated/* regenerated; paper/main.pdf 80 pages, 0 undefined; docs/reviews/response_to_reviewers.md |