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WP35 Phase 1: literature review, novelty matrix, Crossref-verified reference list, frozen pre-registration (D-003)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Simon-Pierre Boucher committed (Nov 1, 2026) parent 2623f13 Browse files

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4 changed files
Unified Split
added configs/regions.yaml +20 −0
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1 +# Macro-regions for fixed effects / leave-region-out (fixed before analysis, 2026-11-01).
2 +# Keys = the 42 `seshat_region` values of Polaris-2026 (Polities sheet). Grouping is geographic only.
3 +macro_regions:
4 + Europe: [Western Europe, Southern Europe, Central Europe, Northern Europe, Eastern Europe, Southeastern Europe, Pontic-Caspian]
5 + Southwest_Asia: [Anatolia-Caucasus, Mesopotamia, Levant, Iran, Arabia]
6 + Central_Asia: [Turkestan, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Siberia]
7 + South_Asia: [North India, Southern India, Eastern South Asia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka]
8 + East_Asia: [North China, South China, Northeast Asia]
9 + Southeast_Asia_Oceania: [Mainland Southeast Asia, Maritime Southeast Asia, Polynesia, New Guinea]
10 + North_Africa: [Northeast Africa, Maghreb, Sahel]
11 + Sub_Saharan_Africa: [West Africa, East Africa, Central Africa, Southern Africa]
12 + North_America: [Mexico, Mississippi Basin, Western North America, East Coast, Caribbean]
13 + South_America: [Andes, Amazonia]
14 +era_blocks: # CE years, applied to the polity midpoint (start_year+end_year)/2
15 + - {name: "pre-1000BCE", max: -1001}
16 + - {name: "1000BCE-0", min: -1000, max: 0}
17 + - {name: "1-1000", min: 1, max: 1000}
18 + - {name: "1001-1500", min: 1001, max: 1500}
19 + - {name: "1501-1800", min: 1501, max: 1800}
20 + - {name: "post-1800", min: 1801}
added docs/novelty_search_report.md +128 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
1 +# Novelty search report — verification pass of the 18 closest works (2026-11-01)
2 +
3 +Produced by a dedicated verification agent (Claude Code subagent) using WebSearch/WebFetch on Crossref, Europe PMC,
4 +OSF, Dryad, IDEAS/RePEc and publisher pages. "Verified" = bibliographic record confirmed by Crossref/Europe PMC or a
5 +publisher/repository page. [UNVERIFIED] items were not confirmed. Nothing here is invented; this file is the audit trail
6 +behind `research/literature_review.md`.
7 +
8 +## 1. Shin, Price, Wolpert, Shimao, Tracey & Kohler (2020)
9 +Citation (verified, Europe PMC PMC7224170): Nature Communications 11, 2394, DOI 10.1038/s41467-020-16035-9.
10 +Claim: development proceeds in phases — scale growth, then information-processing/economic growth, then further scale;
11 +a "Scale Threshold" (PC1 ≈ −2.5) and an "Information Threshold" (PC1 ≈ −0.5). Data: Seshat, 285 polities, 30 NGAs,
12 +414 polity-centuries, nine CCs. Method: PCA; PC1 77.2% (loadings PolPop 0.93, PolTerr 0.85, CapPop 0.89, levels 0.90,
13 +gvrnmt 0.88, infrastr 0.88, writing 0.87, texts 0.92, money 0.80); PC2 ≈ 6% opposes scale (negative loadings) to
14 +information (positive). On instability: explicitly hypothetical — "mismatch among aspects of social development should
15 +be considered as a generic cause of instability"; Seshat "too small" to test; "a topic for future research".
16 +Relation: closest existing hypothesis; never operationalizes a mismatch index, never links to CrisisDB, no predictive test.
17 +
18 +## 2. Johnson (1982)
19 +Citation (verified via library records; chapter not read): in Renfrew, Rowlands & Segraves (eds.), Theory and
20 +Explanation in Archaeology, Academic Press, pp. 389–421, ISBN 0-12-586960-6. Content known through Alberti (2014,
21 +PLoS ONE, PMC3953443) and annotations: scalar stress grows disproportionately with units per level; fission or added
22 +hierarchy; modal ~6 units per level; Alberti estimates a fission threshold near 127 persons (Hutterites). Relation:
23 +theoretical ancestor; no cross-polity instability test.
24 +
25 +## 3. Wright & Johnson (1975)
26 +American Anthropologist 77(2), 267–289; DOI 10.1525/aa.1975.77.2.02a00020 (confirmed by Crossref in the main session).
27 +State = administrative hierarchy of ≥ 3 decision levels; population growth and exchange rejected as sufficient causes
28 +(Susiana survey data). Relation: definition of K; not about instability.
29 +
30 +## 4. Turchin et al. (2018)
31 +PNAS 115(2), E144–E151, DOI 10.1073/pnas.1708800115 (verified). 414 polity-centuries, 30 regions, 51 variables → 9 CCs;
32 +PCA with multiple imputation; PC1 ≈ 77%. Relation: D- and K-type variables share PC1 → mismatch is a residual.
33 +
34 +## 5. Turchin et al. (2022)
35 +Science Advances 8(25), eabn3517, DOI 10.1126/sciadv.abn3517 (verified). Dynamical regression, 17 predictors,
36 +>100,000 combinations; best: agricultural productivity × military technology. Relation: growth, not instability.
37 +
38 +## 6. Hoyer et al. (2023) and CrisisDB
39 +6a. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 378(1889), 20220402, DOI 10.1098/rstb.2022.0402 (verified, PMC10505849); data Dryad
40 +doi:10.5061/dryad.mkkwh715m; "over 150" crises (Fig. 1: n = 169); severity = additive count of 13 outcomes; no regression.
41 +6b. Coding scheme (Dryad): 13 consequence variables (decline, collapse, epidemic, downward mobility, extermination,
42 +uprising, civil war, century plus, fragmentation, capital, conquest, assassination, deposition); codes 1 / 0 / 1.inf /
43 +0.inf / U.susp. The P/A/IP/IA/SU labels were not found in the Dryad file (they are the labels used in the Polaris-2026
44 +spreadsheet we hold; cite them as Polaris codes).
45 +6c. Hoyer, Holder, Bennett, François, Whitehouse, Covey, Feinman, Korotayev, Vustiuzhanin, Preiser-Kapeller, Bard,
46 +Levine, Reddish, Orlandi, Ainsworth & Turchin (2024). All crises are unhappy in their own way: the role of societal
47 +instability in shaping the past. SocArXiv, DOI 10.31235/osf.io/rk4gd (verified via OSF API). 168 crises; consequences
48 +variable, largely uncorrelated, and largely unpredictable from territorial size, religion or administrative complexity.
49 +No journal version found as of 2026-11-01. Relation: partially contradicts a naive D/K story.
50 +Other Seshat crisis outputs listed on seshatdatabank.info (not read): Orlandi et al. (2023) Qing; Hoyer et al.
51 +"Flattening the curve" (OSF); Hoyer "Decline and fall, growth and spread, or resilience?" J. World History 34(4) [UNVERIFIED].
52 +
53 +## 7. Lee & Zhang (2017)
54 +Journal of Politics 79(1), 118–132, DOI 10.1086/688053 (verified; erratum DOI 10.1086/690691). Legibility via
55 +age-heaping in censuses; higher legibility → higher tax contributions. Sample N in the 2017 paper not confirmed.
56 +
57 +## 8. Brambor, Goenaga, Lindvall & Teorell (2020)
58 +Comparative Political Studies 53(2), 175–213, DOI 10.1177/0010414019843432 (verified with abstract). Information
59 +Capacity Dataset, 85 polities, 1789–2015, five indicators (census, statistical agency, yearbooks, civil register,
60 +population register); suffrage expansions associated with higher information capacity.
61 +
62 +## 9. Sng (2014)
63 +Explorations in Economic History 54, 107–127, DOI 10.1016/j.eeh.2014.05.002 (verified; empirics read from the 2011
64 +working-paper PDF). Prefecture-level 1820 data (CHGIS v4): land tax per capita falls with distance from Beijing (1%
65 +level); county density falls with distance; placebo capitals insignificant; IV with straight-line distance.
66 +
67 +## 10. Tainter (1988)
68 +Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0-521-34092-6 (verified via Crossref-indexed reviews in Antiquity 62(237) and American
69 +Antiquity 55(2)); declining marginal returns to complexity; comparative cases; no statistical test. [secondary]
70 +
71 +## 11. Crémer, Garicano & Prat (2007)
72 +QJE 122(1), 373–407, DOI 10.1162/qjec.122.1.373 (verified). Organizations choose a code of limited size; precise words
73 +for frequent events; scope vs precision trade-off; manager as translator. Arrow (1974) introduced codes [secondary].
74 +
75 +## 12. Chwe (2000, 2001)
76 +Review of Economic Studies 67(1), 1–16, DOI 10.1111/1467-937X.00118 (verified); Rational Ritual, Princeton UP 2001
77 +(revised paperback 2013, ISBN 978-0-691-15828-0). Common knowledge is the bottleneck; rituals manufacture it.
78 +
79 +## 13. Bettencourt (2013); Ortman et al. (2014)
80 +Science 340(6139), 1438–1441, DOI 10.1126/science.1235823 (verified; 10.1126/science.1235712 is wrong); PLoS ONE 9(2),
81 +e87902, DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0087902 (verified). Superlinear outputs (~N^1.15), sublinear infrastructure (~N^0.85);
82 +>1,500 archaeological settlements in the Basin of Mexico match modern cities.
83 +
84 +## 14. Miranda & Freeman (2020)
85 +PLoS ONE 15(5), e0232609, DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0232609 (verified). 271 polities, ≥ 75% coded, datawig imputation;
86 +sparse subspace + spectral clustering; silhouette 0.18; five subclusters in two superclusters; transitional cluster 2
87 +dwell ~200–500 years.
88 +
89 +## 15. Beheim et al. (2021) and reply
90 +Nature 595(7866), E29–E34, DOI 10.1038/s41586-021-03655-4 (verified). 61% of moralizing-gods data points missing and
91 +recoded as absent in Whitehouse et al. (2019, Nature 568, 226–229, DOI 10.1038/s41586-019-1043-4, retracted July 2021,
92 +retraction DOI 10.1038/s41586-021-03656-3). Retake: Whitehouse et al. (2023) Religion, Brain & Behavior 13(2),
93 +124–166, DOI 10.1080/2153599X.2022.2074085.
94 +
95 +## 16. Goldstone et al. (2010)
96 +AJPS 54(1), 190–208, DOI 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00426.x (verified). 1955–2003, 141 onsets, case-control conditional
97 +logit; regime type dominates; >80% accuracy at two-year lead.
98 +
99 +## 17. Hanson & Sigman (2021)
100 +Journal of Politics 83(4), 1495–1510, DOI 10.1086/715066 (verified). 21 indicators, 177 countries, 1960–2015, Bayesian
101 +latent model; extractive, coercive, administrative dimensions.
102 +
103 +## 18. Institutions as compression — what exists
104 +- No academic use of "Social Compression Hypothesis" or "social compression" + institutions was found (nearest named
105 + construct: "social overload thesis", Shi & Shi 2023, Socius; unrelated).
106 +- DeDeo (2017), Major transitions in political order, in From Matter to Life (CUP), pp. 393–428, DOI
107 + 10.1017/9781316584200.016 (verified; arXiv 1512.03419): transitions driven by information-processing innovations;
108 + coarse-graining via lossy compression as central mechanism; conceptual, no Seshat data, no instability test.
109 +- Wolpert et al. (2017), The many faces of state space compression, same volume, DOI 10.1017/9781316584200.010 (verified; not read).
110 +- Marzen & DeDeo (2017), J. R. Soc. Interface 14(130), 20170166, DOI 10.1098/rsif.2017.0166 (verified): rate-distortion
111 + model with high-fidelity (cost linear in complexity) and low-fidelity regimes.
112 +- Flack (2012) Phil. Trans. B 367(1597), 1802–1810, DOI 10.1098/rstb.2011.0214; Flack (2017) Phil. Trans. A 375(2109),
113 + 20160338, DOI 10.1098/rsta.2016.0338; Daniels, Krakauer & Flack (2017) Nat. Commun. 8, 14301, DOI 10.1038/ncomms14301;
114 + Krakauer et al. (2020) Theory in Biosciences 139(2), 209–223, DOI 10.1007/s12064-020-00313-7 (all verified).
115 +- Not found: any paper that both defines institutions as codecs minimizing communication cost per coordinated task and
116 + tests a demand/capacity mismatch against historical instability. A 2025 seminar abstract (Yin, Jinan University IESR)
117 + on territorial penetration outpacing administrative capacity [UNVERIFIED]; an LSE eprint (114488) on bureaucracies
118 + compressing reality [UNVERIFIED, not read].
119 +
120 +## Ranking by overlap
121 +1. Shin et al. 2020 — verbal mismatch-instability conjecture, untested. 2. Johnson 1982 — scalar stress.
122 +3. Sng 2014 — distance/information cost, single polity. 4. Tainter 1988. 5. Crémer–Garicano–Prat 2007 / Arrow 1974 /
123 +DeDeo 2017 — codes/compression micro-foundation. 6. Miranda & Freeman 2020. 7. Hoyer et al. 2024 preprint.
124 +8. Bettencourt 2013 / Ortman 2014 — foil.
125 +
126 +## Could not verify or verified partially
127 +Johnson 1982 chapter content; Lee & Zhang sample N; Sng 2014 published tables; Tainter 1988 pagination; Hoyer et al.
128 +2024 journal version (none found); Hoyer J. World History 34(4); Yin 2025; LSE eprint 114488.
added research/bib_overrides.csv +49 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
1 +key|doi|note
2 +garicano2000|10.1086/317671|JPE 108(5) 874-904 (Crossref first match was the SSRN version)
3 +acemoglu2001|10.1257/aer.91.5.1369|AER 91(5) (first match was NBER w7771)
4 +dewan2008|10.1017/S0003055408080234|APSR 102(3) (first match SSRN)
5 +dincecco2018|10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-064428|ARPS 21 (first match SSRN)
6 +turchin2015|10.21237/C7clio6127917|Cliodynamics 6(1) 77-107
7 +whitehouse2019|10.1038/s41586-019-1043-4|Nature 568 226-229 (retracted 2021; cited only with retraction note)
8 +gavrilets2008|10.1371/journal.pone.0003293|Gavrilets, Duenez-Guzman & Vose, PLoS ONE 2008 3(10) e3293 (verified by DOI)
9 +mace1994|10.1086/204317|Mace & Pagel 1994 Current Anthropology 35(5)
10 +dow2007|10.1177/1069397107305452|Dow 2007 Cross-Cultural Research 41(4)
11 +coppedge2020|10.1017/9781108347860|Cambridge UP book
12 +chwe2001|10.23943/princeton/9780691158280.001.0001|Princeton Scholarship Online edition
13 +greif1993|manual|AER 83(3) 525-548, JSTOR 2117532 (no DOI registered)
14 +hayek1945|manual|AER 35(4) 519-530, JSTOR 1809376 (no DOI registered)
15 +simon1962|manual|Proc. Am. Phil. Soc. 106(6) 467-482, JSTOR 985254
16 +johnson1982|manual|In Renfrew, Rowlands & Segraves (eds.), Theory and Explanation in Archaeology, Academic Press, pp. 389-421
17 +johnson1978|manual|In Redman et al. (eds.), Social Archeology: Beyond Subsistence and Dating, Academic Press, pp. 87-112
18 +turchin2009gavrilets|manual|Turchin & Gavrilets 2009 Social Evolution & History 8(2) 167-198
19 +marschak1972|manual|Yale University Press (book)
20 +schelling1960|manual|Harvard University Press (book)
21 +boyd1985|manual|University of Chicago Press (book)
22 +yates1989|manual|Johns Hopkins University Press (book)
23 +chandler1977|manual|Harvard University Press / Belknap (book)
24 +eisenstadt1963|manual|Free Press (book)
25 +weber1922|manual|Weber 1978 [1922] Economy and Society, University of California Press (book)
26 +turchin2016|manual|Beresta Books (book)
27 +turchin2023|manual|Penguin Press (book)
28 +hidalgo2015|manual|Basic Books (book)
29 +fukuyama2011|manual|Farrar, Straus and Giroux (book)
30 +graeber2021|manual|Farrar, Straus and Giroux (book)
31 +koyama2022|manual|Polity Press (book)
32 +arrow1974|manual|W. W. Norton (book)
33 +williamson1985|manual|Free Press (book)
34 +tainter1988|manual|Cambridge University Press 1988 (book; guessed DOI resolved to another title and was discarded)
35 +mann1986|10.1017/CBO9780511570896|Cambridge UP vol. 1 (first match was a review)
36 +scott1998|manual|Yale University Press (book)
37 +goldstone1991|manual|University of California Press (book)
38 +tilly1992|manual|Blackwell (book)
39 +beniger1986|manual|Harvard University Press (book)
40 +innis1950|manual|Oxford University Press / University of Toronto Press (book)
41 +lewis1969|manual|Harvard University Press (book)
42 +mokyr2016|10.1515/9781400882915|Princeton UP
43 +cumming2017|drop|year wrong and not needed
44 +cox2019|drop|placeholder
45 +dedeo2017|10.1017/9781316584200.016|DeDeo 2017 'Major transitions in political order', in From Matter to Life (CUP) — added after novelty search
46 +marzen2017|10.1098/rsif.2017.0166|Marzen & DeDeo 2017 J R Soc Interface — added after novelty search
47 +flack2012|10.1098/rstb.2011.0214|Flack 2012 Phil Trans B — added after novelty search
48 +hoyer2024|10.31235/osf.io/rk4gd|Hoyer et al. 2024 SocArXiv preprint 'All crises are unhappy in their own way' — no journal version found 2026-11-01
49 +wolpert2017|10.1017/9781316584200.010|Wolpert 2017 'The many faces of state space compression' (same volume)
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