1\begin{tabular}{llllrrrr}2\toprule3Target & Split & Model & Log loss [95\% CI] & Brier & AUC & $n_{\text{test}}$ & Base rate \\4\midrule5Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Chronological & Logistic & 0.428 [0.417, 0.438] & 0.135 & 0.748 & 12\,953 & 0.193 \\6 & & LightGBM & 0.406 [0.395, 0.416] & 0.129 & 0.784 & 12\,953 & 0.193 \\7Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Dealer holdout & Logistic & 0.476 [0.469, 0.483] & 0.150 & 0.580 & 44\,003 & 0.184 \\8 & & LightGBM & 0.484 [0.477, 0.492] & 0.151 & 0.578 & 44\,003 & 0.184 \\9Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Region LORO & Logistic & 0.508 [0.500, 0.516] & 0.163 & 0.606 & 28\,947 & 0.198 \\10 & & LightGBM & 0.529 [0.518, 0.539] & 0.167 & 0.581 & 28\,947 & 0.198 \\11\addlinespace12Exit $\le$ 30 d & Chronological & Logistic & 0.609 [0.603, 0.616] & 0.212 & 0.705 & 12\,953 & 0.592 \\13 & & LightGBM & 0.585 [0.580, 0.592] & 0.204 & 0.727 & 12\,953 & 0.592 \\14Exit $\le$ 30 d & Dealer holdout & Logistic & 0.695 [0.694, 0.697] & 0.251 & 0.566 & 44\,003 & 0.593 \\15 & & LightGBM & 0.682 [0.680, 0.684] & 0.244 & 0.606 & 44\,003 & 0.593 \\16Exit $\le$ 30 d & Region LORO & Logistic & 0.690 [0.688, 0.693] & 0.248 & 0.584 & 28\,947 & 0.601 \\17 & & LightGBM & 0.680 [0.675, 0.684] & 0.243 & 0.613 & 28\,947 & 0.601 \\18\bottomrule19\end{tabular}20