1claim_id,section,claim,evidence_type,evidence_ref,status,notes2C-001,data,"Panel covers 2026-08-12 12:30 UTC to 2026-11-01 06:49 UTC (81 days, 586 crawl cycles), 273 265 listings, 62 821 active at snapshot",computation,results/descriptives/summary.json; data/interim/manifest.json,verified,3C-002,data,"AutoTrader (2 000 sliding window) and CarGurus (500 cap) are sampled portals excluded from S1/S2",documentation+computation,data/raw/registry/docs/connecteurs/{autotrader,cargurus}.md; reports/data_access_audit.md §5,verified,4C-003,design,"Listing exit = observed disappearance confirmed by >= 7 days of absence; never a verified sale",design,DECISIONS.md D-004; src/ucml/cleaning.py,verified,5C-004,data,"Crawl cycle 3.3 h mean; 7.3 observations per listing-day; max same-source gap 13.6 h",computation,results/descriptives/summary.json coverage,verified,6C-005,data,"S1 = 136 393; S2 = 80 856; S2L = 128 091; 47 235 left-censored (day-1 + source start-up)",computation,data/processed/sample_construction.csv; cleaning_stats.json,verified,D-0147C-006,data,"2 164 placeholder prices <= $1; 3 451 oscillating uids; 70 excluded with >= 3 transients",computation,reports/data_access_audit.md §4-5; cleaning_stats.json,verified,8C-007,data,"Price log: 76 261 sustained cuts, 26 486 rises (all sources); among non-portal sources cuts ≈ 9x rises",computation,results/descriptives (events by kind, cleaning validation log E-003),verified,9C-008,data,"Median S1 entry price 25 627 $, mileage 68 629 km, age 5.7 y; SUV 56.7 %, sedan 20.8 %, pickup 10.6 %; BEV 6.1 %",computation,results/descriptives/summary.json; paper/tables/tab03_descriptives.tex,verified,10C-009,data,"S2 completed spells: median 8.9 d (IQR 1.0–20.6), 44 % within 7 d, 87 % within 30 d; 46 % right-censored",computation,results/descriptives/summary.json dynamics,verified,11C-010,data,"19.7 % of S2 listings have >= 1 sustained cut; 6.6 % >= 2; median first cut 2.8 % (mean 4.6 %)",computation,results/descriptives/summary.json dynamics,verified,12C-011,prices,"H1: nonlinear age/km terms jointly significant chi2(12)=664; tensor chi2(49)=667; age x powertrain chi2(35)=312",computation,results/hedonic/summary.json tests,verified,13C-012,prices,"Grouped-dealer CV RMSE: linear 0.176, splines 0.171 (−2.8 %), tensor 0.172, trim FE 0.161 (57 % coverage), LightGBM 0.159",computation,results/hedonic/cv_grouped_dealer.json,verified,14C-013,prices,"Linear benchmark: −8.5 % per year of age, −3.2 % per 10 000 km (A1)",computation,results/hedonic/coefs_A1_linear_mm.csv,verified,15C-014,prices,"Surface: vs 1 y/10 000 km, price −14 % (1 y, 50k km), −27 % (3 y), −37 % (5 y), −57 % (10 y); at 5 y from 10k to 200k km: −28 % to −59 %",computation,results/hedonic/surface_A2t.csv,verified,16C-015,prices,"H4: region effects jointly insignificant chi2(16)=14.9 p=0.53; premia −1.0 % (Lanaudière) to +3.7 % (Bas-Saint-Laurent); Outaouais +2.1 % p=0.14",computation,results/hedonic/region_premia_A4.csv; summary.json tests,verified,null result17C-016,prices,"In-sample RMSE 0.167 (A1) → 0.162 (A2) → 0.107 (A4 trim FE) → 0.091 (A5 dealer FE)",computation,results/hedonic/summary.json fits,verified,18C-017,dynamics,"First-markdown empirical hazard 0.7 %/day (days 1–3) → 1.1 % (day 7) → 1.4–1.5 % (weeks 2–4)",computation,results/hazards/empirical_hazard_first_markdown.csv,verified,19C-018,dynamics,"H2: listing-age bins jointly significant chi2(8)=170 in cloglog B; coefficients rise 0.79 → 1.68",computation,results/hazards/cloglog_B_first_markdown.csv; summary.json,verified,20C-019,dynamics,"Cox markdown (dealer-clustered): resid 0.716 (p=5e-4), log density 0.114 (p<1e-5), price position 0.356 (p=0.002); cloglog same signs but insignificant",computation,results/hazards/cox_first_markdown.csv; cloglog_B_first_markdown.csv,verified,21C-020,dynamics,"Cut size: median 2.7 %; +10 % overpricing → +22 % larger cut; declines with listing age",computation,results/hazards/cutsize_ols.csv; summary.json B_cut_size,verified,22C-021,competition,"Daily base rate of own cut 1.44 %; same-day competitor-cut coefficient +0.89 pp (SE 0.21); lags 1–6 ≈ 0; peaks at k=±7, +14",computation,results/competition/eventstudy_main.csv; summary.json,verified,association only23C-022,competition,"Leads jointly significant p<1e-4; placebo permuted within make-model: all ≈ 0 (joint p=0.18)",computation,results/competition/summary.json,verified,24C-023,competition,"Dealer x weekday FE: k=0 falls to 0.55 pp; k=7 0.17; k=14 0.33",computation,results/competition/summary_dow.json,verified,25C-024,competition,"First-markdown risk set: k=0 +2.6 pp vs base 4.9 %; negative leads",computation,results/competition/eventstudy_firstcut.csv,verified,26C-025,exit,"Exit hazard 13 % on day 1, 2 % days 2–3, ≈3 % weeks 2–3, <1 % beyond 60 d",computation,results/hazards/empirical_hazard_exit.csv,verified,27C-026,exit,"H5 not supported: entry residual in exit hazard 0.18 (cloglog p=0.42), 0.13 (Cox p=0.54) with dealer clusters; mileage −0.49, price −0.26 (Cox)",computation,results/hazards/cloglog_C_exit.csv; cox_exit.csv,verified,null result28C-027,validation,"17 898 overlapping dealer-site/otogo VIN pairs; of 8 541 both-exited pairs 80 % within 1 d, 94 % within 7 d, median gap 0.4 d",computation,results/validation/exit_validation.json,verified,29C-028,validation,"11.4 % of dealer-site exits still listed on otogo 7 d later; 2.8 % the reverse",computation,results/validation/exit_validation.json,verified,30C-029,validation,"Of 47 398 exits observable 30 d: 10.2 % relisted within 30 d, 5.8 % > 5 km away; transfer gap median 1.1 d, q75 8.7 d; 10 139 of 95 968 VINs at 2+ locations > 5 km",computation,results/validation/exit_validation.json,verified,31C-030,prediction,"Chronological split: LightGBM log loss 0.405 markdown (AUC 0.785), 0.585 exit (AUC 0.727); ECE < 0.02; dealer/region holdouts AUC 0.58–0.61",computation,results/prediction/metrics.json; paper/tables/tab08_prediction.tex,verified,32C-031,prediction,"Dealer target-encoded rate = top LightGBM feature (≈35 % gain markdown, 30 % exit); Cox exit C-index 0.658 on later cohort",computation,results/prediction/feature_importance_*.csv; metrics.json,verified,33C-032,amli,"PCA first component explains 56 % (region x week, weeks 2–10); loadings exit +0.41, mdfreq +0.35, depth −0.51, disp(rev) +0.52, arrival +0.44",computation,results/amli/summary.json region.weights,verified,sign reversal on depth34C-033,amli,"Component correlations: exit–arrival 0.62, exit–depth −0.35, exit–disp(rev) 0.44, depth–disp 0.85",computation,results/amli/summary.json component_corr,verified,35C-034,amli,"Held-out validation: leave-exit-out index → next-week exit 0.97 pp [0.69, 1.24], n=68, R2 0.66; with lagged exit 1.03 [0.70, 1.35]",computation,results/amli/summary.json region_validation,verified,36C-035,amli,"Leave-one-component-out correlations 0.91–0.95; corr(equal,PCA)=0.85; corr(equal,supervised)=0.68; segments PCA 44–46 %, slopes 0.46 pp (body CI [0.06, 0.86]; tier CI covers 0)",computation,results/amli/summary.json,verified,37C-036,amli,"No external forecasting test possible: no weekly Quebec used-car benchmark exists for Aug–Oct 2026",documentation,reports/external_benchmarks_inventory.md,verified,38C-037,lit,"172 references verified via Crossref DOI or publisher URL; no retracted items",documentation,literature/evidence_matrix.csv; search_protocol.md,verified,39C-038,background,"Quebec new vehicle sales Aug 2026 = 41 657 units (StatCan 20-10-0085-01); BoC hike to 2.50 % on 2026-10-28",external,reports/external_benchmarks_inventory.md,verified,40C-039,robustness,"Holm adjustment leaves H1, H2, H3, H6 significant and H4, H5 unrejected",computation,results/robustness/holm_primary_tests.csv,pending,agent running41