spb/wp37_uqo

added .gitignore +43 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
	1	+# Raw & processed data — never committed (see data/raw/README.md for provenance)
	2	+data/raw/*
	3	+!data/raw/README.md
	4	+data/processed/*
	5	+!data/processed/.gitkeep
	6	+
	7	+# Python
	8	+__pycache__/
	9	+*.pyc
	10	+.pytest_cache/
	11	+.venv/
	12	+*.egg-info/
	13	+
	14	+# LaTeX build artifacts (paper/main.pdf IS committed)
	15	+paper/*.aux
	16	+paper/*.log
	17	+paper/*.out
	18	+paper/*.toc
	19	+paper/*.lof
	20	+paper/*.lot
	21	+paper/*.fls
	22	+paper/*.fdb_latexmk
	23	+paper/*.bbl
	24	+paper/*.blg
	25	+paper/*.spl
	26	+paper/*.synctex.gz
	27	+paper/*.run.xml
	28	+paper/*.bcf
	29	+
	30	+# Logs
	31	+logs/
	32	+*.log
	33	+
	34	+# macOS
	35	+.DS_Store
	36	+logs/*.log
	37	+data/interim/*
	38	+!data/interim/.gitkeep
	39	+.env
	40	+*.db
	41	+*.db-wal
	42	+*.db-shm
	43	+paper/tex2docx/

added CLAUDE.md +130 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
	1	+CLAUDE.md — UQO Working Paper 37
	2	+Mission
	3	+You are the autonomous research engineer, econometrician, data scientist, and scientific writer responsible for WP37: The Hidden Architecture of Grocery Prices: Promotional Cycles, Retail Competition, and the Cost of Living in Quebec.
	4	+
	5	+Produce a defensible, reproducible academic working paper, not a marketing report. The empirical foundation is https://www.food-ka.com, a Quebec grocery price comparison service. As observed on November 1, 2026, the public homepage reports approximately 50,886 products, 54 banners, and 8,590 products on promotion. These are website-reported counts, not verified unique UPCs or balanced longitudinal observations. Validate them before using them in the paper.
	6	+Scientific thesis
	7	+Grocery prices are not a single inflation process: they are the joint outcome of heterogeneous retailer strategies, temporary promotions, product assortment, package-size changes, and geographic access. Develop a micro-founded, empirically testable account of how promotional pricing and retailer competition shape the effective cost of a comparable grocery basket. Aim for a methodological contribution that can be independently reproduced and falsified.
	8	+Main research questions
	9	+1. How much cross-retailer price dispersion remains after exact product, package-size, location, and date matching?
	10	+2. Do promotions represent genuine savings or follow reference-price inflation and high-low pricing cycles?
	11	+3. How quickly do competitors respond to a rival's price or promotional changes, and when can this be causally identified?
	12	+4. How much do substitution, package resizing, private labels, and retailer choice change measured grocery inflation?
	13	+5. Can an independently validated Quebec Grocery Price and Affordability Index (QGPAI) improve on simple average listed prices?
	14	+6. What share of apparent consumer savings is feasible after accounting for store accessibility, travel costs, assortment availability, and realistic shopping constraints?
	15	+Mandatory scientific integrity rules
	16	+- Never fabricate observations, transactions, stock status, locations, price histories, timestamps, experiments, significance levels, citations, or findings.
	17	+- Listed prices are NOT paid transaction prices; product disappearance is NOT proof of a sale; promotion tags are NOT proof of real discounts.
	18	+- Do not assume Food-Ka has historical snapshots, store-level locations, product identifiers, an API, or unrestricted database access. Inspect and document availability first.
	19	+- Do not treat 54 banners as 54 independent retail chains: distinguish retailer, banner, store, source feed, and circular channel. Deduplicate overlapping feeds.
	20	+- Count matched products separately from total listings. Comparisons require exact GTIN/UPC where available or validated probabilistic matching; never compare different sizes without unit normalization.
	21	+- Respect robots.txt, rate limits, site terms, intellectual property, privacy, and data-access restrictions. Prefer authorized database exports or API access. Never bypass access controls.
	22	+- Clearly label exploratory correlations versus causal estimates. No causal claims without defensible identification.
	23	+- Register research questions and primary outcomes before examining final model results. Report null findings and negative results.
	24	+- Never modify production Food-Ka services or credentials. Work in isolated read-only research copies.
	25	+Phase 0 — Repository and infrastructure reconnaissance
	26	+1. Inspect the working directory, repository history, existing documentation, and data permissions. Do not overwrite existing work.
	27	+2. Check Python/R, LaTeX, data processing libraries, storage, memory, and computational resources.
	28	+3. Test any required OpenAI and Anthropic API credentials using safe, minimal requests to models actually accessible to this environment. Record exact provider, model ID, date, limits, cost, and errors; do not assume access to all models. Do not expose secrets in logs.
	29	+4. Establish reproducible environments, deterministic seeds, manifests, checkpoints, structured logs, and a run ledger.
	30	+5. Produce reports/phase0_feasibility.md with GO/NO-GO gates, access constraints, and expected compute requirements.
	31	+Phase 1 — Data audit and research-grade panel
	32	+Inspect Food-Ka public information and, only if authorized, source databases/exports. Build a source-to-variable inventory including product name, brand, UPC/GTIN, size, measurement unit, category, retailer/banner/store, regular price, current price, unit price, promotion flag, observation timestamp, circular validity, availability, and geography. Classify each variable as confirmed, derivable, unavailable, or unreliable.
	33	+
	34	+Construct canonical tables:
	35	+- products: stable identity, brand, attributes, package sizes, category.
	36	+- retailers: company, banner, channel, physical/online coverage.
	37	+- offers: product-retailer-location-time observations, regular/current prices, unit prices, promotions, source provenance.
	38	+- product_matches: matched pairs, matching algorithm, confidence, human validation.
	39	+- snapshots: extraction timestamp, freshness, missingness, pipeline version.
	40	+Standardize CAD, grams/kilograms, millilitres/litres, per-item pricing and multipacks; flag deposits, taxes, loyalty-only prices, minimum quantities, online-only pricing, and weighted produce. Detect stale listings, unrealistic prices, duplicate retailer/circular feeds, missing package units, and inconsistent reference prices. Build stratified manually reviewed match samples, report precision/recall, and run sensitivity analyses on match confidence.
	41	+
	42	+If historical observations do not exist, implement an authorized prospective daily panel and transparently distinguish what can be done cross-sectionally now from what requires months of collection. Do not claim a historical panel exists.
	43	+Phase 2 — Literature and theory
	44	+Conduct a documented literature review using actual accessible scholarly sources, verified DOIs, and bibliographic metadata. Cover price dispersion, search costs, retail competition, sales and promotions, price rigidity, menu costs, price indices, scanner data, product substitution, shrinkflation, household welfare, and spatial access. Prioritize relevant work on retail price dispersion and high-low pricing; verify every reference. Maintain literature/evidence_matrix.csv linking each theoretical claim to sources, identifying limitations and WP37's genuine novelty.
	45	+
	46	+Derive a theoretical model where retailer r chooses posted price and promotion state for product i at time t subject to demand elasticity, inventory or procurement conditions where observed, competitive pressure, and consumer search costs. Separate observable implications from unidentifiable structural primitives.
	47	+Phase 3 — Preregistered hypotheses
	48	+H1: Matched-item cross-banner price dispersion is economically meaningful and persistent.
	49	+H2: Promotion-adjusted price volatility differs from nonpromotion price volatility.
	50	+H3: Promotions are associated with subsequent reference-price or nonpromotion-price adjustments; establish direction empirically.
	51	+H4: Competitor price responses are strongest for close substitutes and nearby stores, if store geography exists.
	52	+H5: Package-size and assortment changes generate meaningful gaps between naive and quality-consistent price indices.
	53	+H6: The savings from unconstrained minimum-price shopping materially exceed savings attainable under realistic store, travel, and availability constraints.
	54	+
	55	+For each hypothesis specify sample, outcome, estimand, null, controls, clustering, missingness policy, falsification tests, and minimum panel duration.
	56	+Phase 4 — Econometric program
	57	+Model A: Matched-product price dispersion
	58	+Estimate log(price_irt) = alpha_it + gamma_r + delta_region,t + epsilon_irt, where alpha_it is a product-by-time fixed effect and all terms are included only if data support identification. Analyze within-product coefficient of variation, quantile spreads, and persistence. Cluster appropriately; report uncertainty.
	59	+Model B: Promotion dynamics
	60	+Estimate a transition model between regular and promoted states; calculate promotion duration, recurrence, magnitude, and post-promotion paths. Compare reference prices and unit prices. Event studies must test pretrends, censoring, and event overlap.
	61	+Model C: Competitive spillovers
	62	+Construct product-category and local competitor networks. Estimate dynamic response models with distributed lags and retailer/product/time effects. Explicitly address simultaneity and common shocks; only pursue quasi-experimental or instrumental designs when a plausible, independently justified source of exogenous variation exists. Otherwise report descriptive responses.
	63	+Model D: Inflation and quality adjustment
	64	+Construct matched-model price indices, fixed-basket Laspeyres, Paasche where quantities exist, chained indices, and substitution-aware sensitivity bounds. Do not call a quantity-weighted index a true consumer price index without expenditure weights. Use Statistics Canada public benchmarks with aligned coverage, definitions, geography, and dates.
	65	+Model E: Shopping basket optimization
	66	+Formulate a mixed-integer or constrained optimization for a fixed nutritionally and quantitatively specified basket. Compare single-store, two-store, and unconstrained multi-store costs. Add observed travel distance, time, transport costs, store accessibility, loyalty restrictions, and stock uncertainty only when data are available. Report sensitivity to missing geographic information.
	67	+Model F: Forecasting
	68	+Compare seasonal naive, regularized regression, tree-based models, and appropriate temporal models for future unit prices or promotion probability. Use strict rolling-origin evaluation, time-based holdouts, no future leakage, and transparent error metrics.
	69	+Phase 5 — New index: Quebec Grocery Price and Affordability Index (QGPAI)
	70	+Build a transparent index with separately reported components:
	71	+1. Comparable Price Index: fixed quality-consistent product basket.
	72	+2. Promotion Intensity: promotion frequency, depth, and volatility.
	73	+3. Retail Price Dispersion: matched-item cross-retailer spread.
	74	+4. Feasible Basket Cost: minimum cost under real-world constraints.
	75	+5. Access and Affordability: optional geography and income-normalized basket cost, only with verified external data.
	76	+Avoid arbitrary weighting masquerading as empirical estimation. Publish component indices, prespecified aggregation choices, alternative weights, uncertainty intervals, sensitivity to assortment, and temporal coverage. Validate against official food-price indices without claiming superiority absent out-of-sample evidence.
	77	+Phase 6 — Experiments and robustness
	78	+Conduct genuine analyses only. Include matching threshold sensitivity; common-product balanced panel; exclusions of circular-only feeds; promotion and loyalty exclusions; category-level heterogeneity; store/retailer hierarchy; unit-price normalization; outlier robustness; alternative price indices; bootstrap confidence intervals; placebo events; multiple testing adjustments; and out-of-time validation. Report both successful and failed tests. Track sample attrition at every stage.
	79	+Phase 7 — Required figures and tables
	80	+Produce publication-grade vector figures (PDF/SVG) and LaTeX tables with source notes:
	81	+- Data coverage by retailer, category, geography, and time.
	82	+- Product matching validation and attrition flow.
	83	+- Distribution of within-product price gaps.
	84	+- Promotional price trajectories and transition matrices.
	85	+- Price dispersion heatmap across comparable banners.
	86	+- Dynamic price response estimates with uncertainty.
	87	+- Fixed-basket versus substitution-aware price indices.
	88	+- QGPAI component trajectories with sensitivity bands.
	89	+- Feasible basket savings frontier versus number of stores and travel costs.
	90	+- Out-of-sample forecast comparisons.
	91	+ If unavailable data prevent a figure, include an explicit limitation instead of generating fictitious data. Any simulation must be clearly labeled as simulation and segregated from empirical results.
	92	+Phase 8 — Write the paper
	93	+Create paper/main.tex, paper/references.bib, paper/figures/, and paper/tables/. Write a rigorous English academic paper with title, authorship placeholders, abstract, keywords, JEL codes, introduction, related literature, institutional context, data, theoretical framework, identification, methods, empirical results, robustness, policy implications, limitations, conclusion, reproducibility and data-access statement. Use UQO affiliation only where accurate; never invent coauthors or institutional approval. Use carefully qualified wording and distinguish evidence from speculation.
	94	+
	95	+Suggested title: The Hidden Architecture of Grocery Prices: Promotions, Retail Competition, and the Cost of Living in Quebec.
	96	+
	97	+Target an academically credible manuscript, not a predetermined page count. Compile with latexmk or equivalent, inspect compilation warnings, fix references, verify figure legibility, and produce paper/main.pdf.
	98	+Phase 9 — Independent scientific audit
	99	+Act as a skeptical referee. Re-run the pipeline from raw authorized data; validate tables against source counts; independently recompute central coefficients; inspect missingness, unit errors, clustering, identification assumptions, leakage, and citation integrity. Write reports/referee_1.md, reports/referee_2.md, reports/limitations.md, and reports/reproducibility.md. Do not declare the paper publication-ready unless audit gates pass.
	100	+Deliverables
	101	+wp37_uqo/
	102	+ CLAUDE.md
	103	+ README.md
	104	+ environment.yml / pyproject.toml
	105	+ config/
	106	+ data/raw/ # authorized, never committed if restricted
	107	+ data/interim/
	108	+ data/processed/
	109	+ src/ingestion/
	110	+ src/cleaning/
	111	+ src/matching/
	112	+ src/econometrics/
	113	+ src/indices/
	114	+ src/forecasting/
	115	+ tests/
	116	+ literature/
	117	+ experiments/
	118	+ paper/main.tex
	119	+ paper/main.pdf
	120	+ paper/references.bib
	121	+ paper/figures/
	122	+ paper/tables/
	123	+ reports/
	124	+ logs/
	125	+Execution discipline
	126	+Proceed sequentially, phase by phase. At each gate, run tests, document what was actually observed, and commit reproducible code with descriptive commit messages if a repository is available. Prioritize data provenance and identification over impressive-looking results. If blocked by unavailable history, permissions, or essential variables, deliver the strongest feasible cross-sectional analysis and a concrete prospective collection plan; do not silently change the estimand. Do not make unauthorized production changes or publish data, results, or manuscripts externally without explicit authorization.
	127	+Final success criteria
	128	+WP37 succeeds only if it contains (1) an auditable dataset and matching procedure, (2) defensible descriptive or causal estimands, (3) an honestly constructed grocery price/affordability index, (4) real reproducible tests and robustness checks, (5) verified scholarly references, and (6) a compiled, scientifically cautious working paper. Scientific validity takes precedence over novelty claims.
	129	+
	130	+Start immediately with Phase 0 and Phase 1 feasibility. Do not assume the database exists or that access is granted.

added data/interim/.gitkeep +0 −0

added data/processed/.gitkeep +0 −0

added data/raw/README.md +9 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
	1	+# data/raw — provenance (never committed)
	2	+
	3	+| Item | Provenance | Taken | Integrity |
	4	+|---|---|---|---|
	5	+| `foodka-snapshot-20261101/foodka-snapshot.db` | Consistent SQLite `.backup` of the production Food-Ka database `M2U64:~/apps/food-ka/data/foodka.db` (WAL mode), opened read-only (`?mode=ro`). Production untouched. | 2026-11-01T07:57:11Z (`snapshot-utc.txt`) | SHA-256 in `foodka-snapshot.sha256`, verified after transfer. Food-Ka code at commit `2c76523` (`foodka-git-head.txt`). |
	6	+| `foodka-snapshot-20261101/sources.json` | Registry of the 61 source feeds (57 active, 4 documented as non-connectable). | same | — |
	7	+| `foodka-src/` | Read-only copy of the Food-Ka backend (`foodka/`, `run.py`, `tests/`), excluding `.venv`, `.git`, `frontend`, `docs`, `data`. Used only to document the data-generating process (diff engine, normalization, matching). | same | — |
	8	+
	9	+Authorization: the database owner (S.-P. Boucher, Food-Ka author) is the WP37 principal investigator; access is an owner export, not scraping. `robots.txt` of www.food-ka.com disallows `/api/` to crawlers; the public API was queried once (2026-11-01) only to cross-check headline counts and was not used as a data source.

added paper/.gitignore +35 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
	1	+# Raw & processed data — never committed (see data/raw/README.md for provenance)
	2	+data/raw/*
	3	+!data/raw/README.md
	4	+data/processed/*
	5	+!data/processed/.gitkeep
	6	+
	7	+# Python
	8	+__pycache__/
	9	+*.pyc
	10	+.pytest_cache/
	11	+.venv/
	12	+*.egg-info/
	13	+
	14	+# LaTeX build artifacts (paper/main.pdf IS committed)
	15	+paper/*.aux
	16	+paper/*.log
	17	+paper/*.out
	18	+paper/*.toc
	19	+paper/*.lof
	20	+paper/*.lot
	21	+paper/*.fls
	22	+paper/*.fdb_latexmk
	23	+paper/*.bbl
	24	+paper/*.blg
	25	+paper/*.spl
	26	+paper/*.synctex.gz
	27	+paper/*.run.xml
	28	+paper/*.bcf
	29	+
	30	+# Logs
	31	+logs/
	32	+*.log
	33	+
	34	+# macOS
	35	+.DS_Store

added paper/.latexmkrc +5 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
	1	+$pdf_mode = 1;
	2	+$pdflatex = 'pdflatex -interaction=nonstopmode -halt-on-error -synctex=1 %O %S';
	3	+$bibtex_use = 2;
	4	+$clean_ext = 'synctex.gz run.xml bbl bcf fdb_latexmk fls log aux out toc lof lot blg';
	5	+@default_files = ('main.tex');

added paper/Makefile +11 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
	1	+.PHONY: all clean distclean
	2	+
	3	+all:
	4	+ latexmk
	5	+
	6	+clean:
	7	+ latexmk -c
	8	+
	9	+distclean:
	10	+ latexmk -C
	11	+ rm -f *.synctex.gz *.run.xml *.bbl *.bcf

added paper/README.md +109 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
	1	+<!-- Author: Simon-Pierre Boucher — simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca -->
	2	+# <Emoji> <Title>
	3	+
	4	+**UQO Working Paper No. <N>** — *<Subtitle, or one-line description>*
	5	+
	6	+[-b31b1b?logo=latex&logoColor=white)](paper/main.pdf)
	7	+[](requirements.txt)
	8	+[](data/raw/README.md)
	9	+[](scripts/)
	10	+[](https://uqo.ca)
	11	+[](mailto:simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca)
	12	+
	13	+> **TL;DR** — Three to six lines: question, data (size, period), method, headline numbers, takeaway.
	14	+
	15	+---
	16	+
	17	+## 📌 Status
	18	+
	19	+| Item | Value |
	20	+|---|---|
	21	+| Version | <x.y> (<Month YYYY>) |
	22	+| SSRN | <abstract ID + link> / not yet submitted |
	23	+| Journal | <target or submission status> / — |
	24	+| Code & data | reproducible from `scripts/` (see Quick start); raw data not redistributed |
	25	+
	26	+## 🎯 What this paper does
	27	+
	28	+Two or three paragraphs: research question, why it matters, what is new. Core equation if any:
	29	+
	30	+```
	31	+y_i = α + x_i'β + ε_i
	32	+```
	33	+
	34	+## 🏆 Headline results
	35	+
	36	+| Object | Estimate |
	37	+|---|---|
	38	+| … | … |
	39	+
	40	+## 🗂 Repository layout
	41	+
	42	+```
	43	+<repo>/
	44	+├── data/
	45	+│ ├── raw/ # <source snapshot> (see data/raw/README.md) — not committed
	46	+│ └── processed/ # built by step 01
	47	+├── src/<pkg>/ # reusable package
	48	+├── scripts/ # the pipeline, in order
	49	+│ ├── 01_….py
	50	+│ └── …
	51	+├── results/ # CSV / JSON emitted by the scripts
	52	+├── figures/ # publication figures
	53	+└── paper/ # main.tex + sections/ + references.bib → main.pdf
	54	+```
	55	+
	56	+## 🚀 Quick start
	57	+
	58	+```bash
	59	+python3 -m pip install -r requirements.txt
	60	+python3 scripts/01_….py
	61	+…
	62	+cd paper && make # latexmk → main.pdf
	63	+```
	64	+
	65	+Runtime and memory on an Apple-silicon laptop.
	66	+
	67	+## 🗃 Data
	68	+
	69	+Provenance, extraction date, number of observations, filters (sample cascade), how to obtain the raw snapshot.
	70	+
	71	+## 🔬 Methodology
	72	+
	73	+Numbered list of the estimation steps, each pointing to the module that implements it.
	74	+
	75	+## 🖼 Figures & tables inventory
	76	+
	77	+| Figure | Content |
	78	+|---|---|
	79	+| `fig_…` | … |
	80	+
	81	+Tables (`paper/tables/*.tex`): ….
	82	+
	83	+## ⚠️ Limitations
	84	+
	85	+- …
	86	+
	87	+## 📝 Citation
	88	+
	89	+```bibtex
	90	+@techreport{boucher2026<key>,
	91	+ author = {Boucher, Simon-Pierre},
	92	+ title = {<Title>: <Subtitle>},
	93	+ institution = {Universit\'e du Qu\'ebec en Outaouais, D\'epartement des sciences administratives},
	94	+ type = {Working Paper},
	95	+ number = {<N>},
	96	+ year = {2026},
	97	+ month = {<Month>}
	98	+}
	99	+```
	100	+
	101	+## 👤 Author & contact
	102	+
	103	+**Simon-Pierre Boucher** — Département des sciences administratives,
	104	+Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO), Gatineau, QC.
	105	+📧 [simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca](mailto:simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca)
	106	+
	107	+## 🗒 Notes
	108	+
	109	+- Numbering history / deviations from `Recherche-UQO/HARMONISATION.md`, if any.

added paper/appendix/appendix.tex +93 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+% Appendix
	3	+% ============================================================================
	4	+\newpage
	5	+\begin{appendices}
	6	+
	7	+\renewcommand{\thetable}{A\arabic{table}}
	8	+\renewcommand{\thefigure}{A\arabic{figure}}
	9	+\setcounter{table}{0}
	10	+\setcounter{figure}{0}
	11	+
	12	+\section{Additional Tables and Figures}
	13	+\label{app:tables}
	14	+
	15	+% --- Appendix Table: Sub-sample Analysis ---
	16	+\begin{table}[htbp]
	17	+ \centering
	18	+ \begin{threeparttable}
	19	+ \caption{Sub-sample Analysis}
	20	+ \label{tab:app_subsample}
	21	+ \begin{tabular}{@{}lccc@{}}
	22	+ \toprule
	23	+ & (1) & (2) & (3) \\
	24	+ & Full Sample & Pre-2008 & Post-2008 \\
	25	+ \midrule
	26	+ $X_{i,t}$ & 0.172$^{***}$ & 0.195$^{***}$ & 0.148$^{***}$ \\
	27	+ & (0.033) & (0.048) & (0.041) \\[6pt]
	28	+ \midrule
	29	+ Controls & Yes & Yes & Yes \\
	30	+ Firm FE & Yes & Yes & Yes \\
	31	+ Time FE & Yes & Yes & Yes \\[3pt]
	32	+ Observations & 125{,}400 & 58{,}200 & 67{,}200 \\
	33	+ Adjusted $R^2$ & 0.190 & 0.175 & 0.203 \\
	34	+ \bottomrule
	35	+ \end{tabular}
	36	+ \begin{tablenotes}[flushleft]
	37	+ \footnotesize
	38	+ \item \textit{Notes:} This table reports sub-sample results. Column~(1) reproduces the baseline estimate from Table~\ref{tab:regression}, Column~(4). Columns~(2) and~(3) split the sample before and after January~2008. All specifications include the full set of controls and firm and time fixed effects. Standard errors clustered at the firm level are in parentheses. $^{***}$, $^{**}$, and $^{*}$ denote significance at the 1\%, 5\%, and 10\% levels.
	39	+ \end{tablenotes}
	40	+ \end{threeparttable}
	41	+\end{table}
	42	+
	43	+% --- Appendix Table: Robustness Checks ---
	44	+\begin{table}[htbp]
	45	+ \centering
	46	+ \begin{threeparttable}
	47	+ \caption{Robustness Checks}
	48	+ \label{tab:app_robustness}
	49	+ \begin{tabular}{@{}lccc@{}}
	50	+ \toprule
	51	+ & (1) & (2) & (3) \\
	52	+ & Alt.\ Dep.\ Var. & Alt.\ Controls & Winsorized 5\% \\
	53	+ \midrule
	54	+ $X_{i,t}$ & 0.165$^{***}$ & 0.178$^{***}$ & 0.169$^{***}$ \\
	55	+ & (0.036) & (0.034) & (0.032) \\[6pt]
	56	+ \midrule
	57	+ Controls & Yes & Yes & Yes \\
	58	+ Firm FE & Yes & Yes & Yes \\
	59	+ Time FE & Yes & Yes & Yes \\[3pt]
	60	+ Observations & 125{,}400 & 125{,}400 & 119{,}800 \\
	61	+ Adjusted $R^2$ & 0.185 & 0.192 & 0.195 \\
	62	+ \bottomrule
	63	+ \end{tabular}
	64	+ \begin{tablenotes}[flushleft]
	65	+ \footnotesize
	66	+ \item \textit{Notes:} This table reports robustness checks. Column~(1) uses an alternative dependent variable. Column~(2) includes additional control variables. Column~(3) winsorizes all continuous variables at the 5th and 95th percentiles. All specifications include firm and time fixed effects. Standard errors clustered at the firm level are in parentheses. $^{***}$, $^{**}$, and $^{*}$ denote significance at the 1\%, 5\%, and 10\% levels.
	67	+ \end{tablenotes}
	68	+ \end{threeparttable}
	69	+\end{table}
	70	+
	71	+\section{Variable Definitions}
	72	+\label{app:variables}
	73	+
	74	+\begin{table}[htbp]
	75	+ \centering
	76	+ \caption{Variable Definitions}
	77	+ \label{tab:app_variables}
	78	+ \begin{tabular}{@{}p{3.5cm}p{10cm}@{}}
	79	+ \toprule
	80	+ Variable & Definition \\
	81	+ \midrule
	82	+ $r_{i,t}$ & Monthly log return of firm $i$ in month $t$, computed as $\ln(P_{i,t}/P_{i,t-1})$. \\[4pt]
	83	+ $\sigma_{i,t}$ & Monthly realized volatility of firm $i$, computed as the standard deviation of daily returns within month $t$, annualized by multiplying by $\sqrt{252}$. \\[4pt]
	84	+ $X_{i,t}$ & Main explanatory variable. [Provide specific definition.] \\[4pt]
	85	+ Size & Natural logarithm of market capitalization (in millions of USD) at the end of month $t-1$. \\[4pt]
	86	+ Book-to-Market & Ratio of book equity to market equity, using the most recent fiscal year-end book value and the market value at the end of June. Updated annually following \citet{fama1993common}. \\[4pt]
	87	+ Leverage & Total debt divided by total assets, measured at the most recent fiscal year-end. \\[4pt]
	88	+ ROA & Return on assets, defined as net income divided by total assets. \\
	89	+ \bottomrule
	90	+ \end{tabular}
	91	+\end{table}
	92	+
	93	+\end{appendices}

added paper/figures/main_figure.tex +20 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+% Figure: Main Result
	3	+% ============================================================================
	4	+\begin{figure}[htbp]
	5	+ \centering
	6	+ % --- Replace placeholder with actual figure file ---
	7	+ % \includegraphics[width=0.85\textwidth]{figures/main_result.pdf}
	8	+ %
	9	+ % Placeholder box (remove when replacing with actual figure)
	10	+ \fbox{\parbox{0.85\textwidth}{\centering\vspace{4cm}
	11	+ \textit{[Insert figure here: figures/main\_result.pdf]}
	12	+ \vspace{4cm}}}
	13	+ %
	14	+ \caption{Main Result --- Effect of $X$ on $Y$ Over Time}
	15	+ \label{fig:main_result}
	16	+ \begin{minipage}{0.85\textwidth}
	17	+ \vspace{0.3cm}
	18	+ \footnotesize\textit{Notes:} This figure plots \ldots{} over the sample period January~1990 to December~2023. The solid line represents \ldots{} The shaded area indicates the 95\% confidence interval. The dashed vertical line marks \ldots{}
	19	+ \end{minipage}
	20	+\end{figure}

added paper/main.tex +143 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,143 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+% UQO Working Paper Template — Economics / Finance
	3	+% ============================================================================
	4	+\documentclass[12pt,letterpaper]{article}
	5	+
	6	+% --- Encoding & Language ---
	7	+\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
	8	+\usepackage[T1]{fontenc}
	9	+\usepackage[english]{babel}
	10	+
	11	+% --- Page Layout ---
	12	+\usepackage[
	13	+ letterpaper,
	14	+ top=1in,
	15	+ bottom=1in,
	16	+ left=1in,
	17	+ right=1in
	18	+]{geometry}
	19	+
	20	+% --- Typography ---
	21	+\usepackage{mathptmx} % Times-like font (text + math)
	22	+\usepackage{microtype} % Improved typographic refinements
	23	+\usepackage{setspace}
	24	+\onehalfspacing % 1.5 line spacing
	25	+
	26	+% --- Math ---
	27	+\usepackage{amsmath,amssymb,amsthm}
	28	+
	29	+% --- Tables ---
	30	+\usepackage{booktabs}
	31	+\usepackage{tabularx}
	32	+\usepackage{multirow}
	33	+\usepackage{threeparttable}
	34	+\usepackage{siunitx}
	35	+\sisetup{
	36	+ input-symbols = {()},
	37	+ table-format = -1.3,
	38	+ parse-numbers = false
	39	+}
	40	+
	41	+% --- Figures ---
	42	+\usepackage{graphicx}
	43	+\usepackage{subcaption}
	44	+\usepackage{float}
	45	+
	46	+% --- Colors & Links ---
	47	+\usepackage[dvipsnames]{xcolor}
	48	+\usepackage[
	49	+ colorlinks = true,
	50	+ linkcolor = NavyBlue,
	51	+ citecolor = NavyBlue,
	52	+ urlcolor = NavyBlue,
	53	+ breaklinks = true
	54	+]{hyperref}
	55	+
	56	+% --- Bibliography ---
	57	+\usepackage[authoryear,round,semicolon]{natbib}
	58	+\bibliographystyle{aer}
	59	+
	60	+% --- Captions ---
	61	+\usepackage[
	62	+ font = small,
	63	+ labelfont = bf,
	64	+ labelsep = period,
	65	+ justification = justified,
	66	+ singlelinecheck = false
	67	+]{caption}
	68	+
	69	+% --- Headers & Footers ---
	70	+\usepackage{fancyhdr}
	71	+\pagestyle{fancy}
	72	+\fancyhf{}
	73	+\renewcommand{\headrulewidth}{0pt}
	74	+\fancyfoot[C]{\thepage}
	75	+
	76	+% --- Section Formatting ---
	77	+\usepackage{titlesec}
	78	+\titleformat{\section}{\large\bfseries}{\thesection.}{0.5em}{}
	79	+\titleformat{\subsection}{\normalsize\bfseries}{\thesubsection.}{0.5em}{}
	80	+\titleformat{\subsubsection}{\normalsize\itshape}{\thesubsubsection.}{0.5em}{}
	81	+
	82	+% --- Appendix Support ---
	83	+\usepackage[toc,page]{appendix}
	84	+
	85	+% --- Misc ---
	86	+\usepackage{enumitem}
	87	+\setlist{nosep,leftmargin=*}
	88	+
	89	+% ============================================================================
	90	+% METADATA — Edit these fields for each working paper
	91	+% ============================================================================
	92	+\newcommand{\WPnumber}{XX}
	93	+\newcommand{\WPtitle}{Your Working Paper Title Here}
	94	+\newcommand{\WPsubtitle}{} % Leave empty if no subtitle
	95	+\newcommand{\WPdate}{\today}
	96	+\newcommand{\WPversion}{1.0}
	97	+\newcommand{\WPabstract}{%
	98	+ This paper examines \ldots{}
	99	+ We find that \ldots{}
	100	+ Our results suggest \ldots{}
	101	+ These findings contribute to the literature on \ldots{}
	102	+}
	103	+\newcommand{\WPkeywords}{Keyword 1, Keyword 2, Keyword 3, Keyword 4}
	104	+\newcommand{\WPjel}{G12, G14, C58}
	105	+
	106	+% --- Author ---
	107	+\newcommand{\WPauthor}{Simon-Pierre Boucher}
	108	+\newcommand{\WPaffiliation}{%
	109	+ Département des sciences administratives\\
	110	+ Université du Québec en Outaouais%
	111	+}
	112	+\newcommand{\WPemail}{simon-pierre.boucher@uqo.ca}
	113	+\newcommand{\WPaddress}{%
	114	+ Gatineau -- Pavillon Alexandre-Taché\\
	115	+ 283, boulevard Alexandre-Taché\\
	116	+ Gatineau, Québec, Canada J9A 1L8%
	117	+}
	118	+
	119	+% ============================================================================
	120	+% DOCUMENT
	121	+% ============================================================================
	122	+\begin{document}
	123	+
	124	+% --- Title Page ---
	125	+\input{sections/titlepage}
	126	+
	127	+% --- Main Body ---
	128	+\input{sections/introduction}
	129	+\input{sections/literature}
	130	+\input{sections/data}
	131	+\input{sections/methodology}
	132	+\input{sections/results}
	133	+\input{sections/robustness}
	134	+\input{sections/conclusion}
	135	+
	136	+% --- References ---
	137	+\newpage
	138	+\bibliography{references}
	139	+
	140	+% --- Appendix ---
	141	+\input{appendix/appendix}
	142	+
	143	+\end{document}

added paper/references.bib +61 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+% References — BibTeX Database
	3	+% ============================================================================
	4	+
	5	+@article{fama1993common,
	6	+ author = {Fama, Eugene F. and French, Kenneth R.},
	7	+ title = {Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds},
	8	+ journal = {Journal of Financial Economics},
	9	+ volume = {33},
	10	+ number = {1},
	11	+ pages = {3--56},
	12	+ year = {1993}
	13	+}
	14	+
	15	+@article{bollerslev1986generalized,
	16	+ author = {Bollerslev, Tim},
	17	+ title = {Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity},
	18	+ journal = {Journal of Econometrics},
	19	+ volume = {31},
	20	+ number = {3},
	21	+ pages = {307--327},
	22	+ year = {1986}
	23	+}
	24	+
	25	+@article{newey1987simple,
	26	+ author = {Newey, Whitney K. and West, Kenneth D.},
	27	+ title = {A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix},
	28	+ journal = {Econometrica},
	29	+ volume = {55},
	30	+ number = {3},
	31	+ pages = {703--708},
	32	+ year = {1987}
	33	+}
	34	+
	35	+@article{white1980heteroskedasticity,
	36	+ author = {White, Halbert},
	37	+ title = {A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity},
	38	+ journal = {Econometrica},
	39	+ volume = {48},
	40	+ number = {4},
	41	+ pages = {817--838},
	42	+ year = {1980}
	43	+}
	44	+
	45	+@book{cochrane2005asset,
	46	+ author = {Cochrane, John H.},
	47	+ title = {Asset Pricing},
	48	+ edition = {Revised},
	49	+ publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	50	+ year = {2005}
	51	+}
	52	+
	53	+@article{petersen2009estimating,
	54	+ author = {Petersen, Mitchell A.},
	55	+ title = {Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches},
	56	+ journal = {Review of Financial Studies},
	57	+ volume = {22},
	58	+ number = {1},
	59	+ pages = {435--480},
	60	+ year = {2009}
	61	+}

added paper/sections/conclusion.tex +12 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+\section{Conclusion}
	3	+\label{sec:conclusion}
	4	+% ============================================================================
	5	+
	6	+This paper investigates \ldots{} Using data from \ldots{} over the period \ldots{}, we find that \ldots{}
	7	+
	8	+Our results contribute to the literature in several ways. First, \ldots{} Second, \ldots{} Third, \ldots{}
	9	+
	10	+These findings have important implications for \ldots{} From a policy perspective, \ldots{} For practitioners, \ldots{}
	11	+
	12	+Several limitations of the present study suggest directions for future research. First, \ldots{} Second, \ldots{} We leave these questions for future work.

added paper/sections/data.tex +32 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+\section{Data}
	3	+\label{sec:data}
	4	+% ============================================================================
	5	+
	6	+\subsection{Data Sources}
	7	+\label{subsec:data_sources}
	8	+
	9	+We obtain data from \ldots{} Our sample spans the period from January~1990 to December~2023, covering \ldots{} We exclude \ldots{} consistent with standard practice in the literature \citep{fama1993common}.
	10	+
	11	+\subsection{Variable Construction}
	12	+\label{subsec:variables}
	13	+
	14	+Our dependent variable is \ldots{} defined as:
	15	+%
	16	+\begin{equation}
	17	+ r_{i,t} = \ln\!\left(\frac{P_{i,t}}{P_{i,t-1}}\right),
	18	+ \label{eq:returns}
	19	+\end{equation}
	20	+%
	21	+where $P_{i,t}$ denotes the adjusted closing price of asset~$i$ at time~$t$.
	22	+
	23	+The main explanatory variables include \ldots{}
	24	+
	25	+\subsection{Summary Statistics}
	26	+\label{subsec:summary_stats}
	27	+
	28	+Table~\ref{tab:summary_stats} presents the descriptive statistics for our key variables.
	29	+
	30	+\input{tables/summary_stats}
	31	+
	32	+Several patterns emerge from the summary statistics. First, \ldots{} Second, \ldots{} The standard deviations indicate \ldots{}

added paper/sections/introduction.tex +14 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+\section{Introduction}
	3	+\label{sec:introduction}
	4	+% ============================================================================
	5	+
	6	+The question of \ldots{} has attracted considerable attention in the finance and economics literature. Despite the growing body of evidence, the mechanisms underlying \ldots{} remain poorly understood. This paper contributes to this line of research by \ldots{}
	7	+
	8	+The motivation for this study is threefold. First, \ldots{} Second, \ldots{} Third, \ldots{}
	9	+
	10	+Our main findings can be summarized as follows. We show that \ldots{} Furthermore, we document that \ldots{} Finally, our robustness checks confirm that \ldots{}
	11	+
	12	+This paper relates to several strands of the literature. First, it contributes to the literature on \ldots{} \citep{fama1993common}. Second, it builds on the work of \citet{bollerslev1986generalized} by \ldots{} Third, our methodological approach draws on \citet{newey1987simple}.
	13	+
	14	+The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section~\ref{sec:literature} reviews the related literature. Section~\ref{sec:data} describes the data. Section~\ref{sec:methodology} presents the empirical methodology. Section~\ref{sec:results} reports the main results. Section~\ref{sec:robustness} provides robustness checks. Section~\ref{sec:conclusion} concludes.

added paper/sections/literature.tex +21 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+\section{Literature Review}
	3	+\label{sec:literature}
	4	+% ============================================================================
	5	+
	6	+This section reviews the main theoretical and empirical contributions related to our research question.
	7	+
	8	+\subsection{Theoretical Framework}
	9	+\label{subsec:theory}
	10	+
	11	+The theoretical foundations of \ldots{} were established by \citet{cochrane2005asset}. In their framework, \ldots{}
	12	+
	13	+\subsection{Empirical Evidence}
	14	+\label{subsec:empirical_evidence}
	15	+
	16	+A growing body of empirical literature examines \ldots{} \citet{fama1993common} document that \ldots{} More recently, \citet{petersen2009estimating} show that \ldots{}
	17	+
	18	+\subsection{Contribution to the Literature}
	19	+\label{subsec:contribution}
	20	+
	21	+Our paper departs from the existing literature in several important ways. First, \ldots{} Second, \ldots{} Third, \ldots{}

added paper/sections/methodology.tex +44 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+\section{Methodology}
	3	+\label{sec:methodology}
	4	+% ============================================================================
	5	+
	6	+\subsection{Empirical Model}
	7	+\label{subsec:model}
	8	+
	9	+To test our hypotheses, we estimate the following baseline specification:
	10	+%
	11	+\begin{equation}
	12	+ y_{i,t} = \alpha + \beta_1 X_{i,t} + \beta_2 Z_{i,t} + \gamma_i + \delta_t + \varepsilon_{i,t},
	13	+ \label{eq:baseline}
	14	+\end{equation}
	15	+%
	16	+where $y_{i,t}$ is the dependent variable for firm~$i$ in period~$t$, $X_{i,t}$ is the main variable of interest, $Z_{i,t}$ is a vector of control variables, $\gamma_i$ represents firm fixed effects, $\delta_t$ captures time fixed effects, and $\varepsilon_{i,t}$ is the error term.
	17	+
	18	+Our coefficient of interest is $\beta_1$. Under the null hypothesis that \ldots{}, we expect $\beta_1 = 0$. A positive (negative) estimate of $\beta_1$ would indicate \ldots{}
	19	+
	20	+\subsection{Identification Strategy}
	21	+\label{subsec:identification}
	22	+
	23	+The main identification challenge arises from \ldots{} To address potential endogeneity concerns, we employ \ldots{}
	24	+
	25	+We cluster standard errors at the firm level to account for within-firm serial correlation, following \citet{petersen2009estimating}.
	26	+
	27	+\subsection{Extended Specifications}
	28	+\label{subsec:extended}
	29	+
	30	+We extend the baseline model in several directions. First, we allow for nonlinear effects:
	31	+%
	32	+\begin{equation}
	33	+ y_{i,t} = \alpha + \beta_1 X_{i,t} + \beta_2 X_{i,t}^2 + \boldsymbol{\beta}_3' \mathbf{Z}_{i,t} + \gamma_i + \delta_t + \varepsilon_{i,t}.
	34	+ \label{eq:nonlinear}
	35	+\end{equation}
	36	+
	37	+Second, we examine heterogeneous effects by interacting $X_{i,t}$ with \ldots{}:
	38	+%
	39	+\begin{equation}
	40	+ y_{i,t} = \alpha + \beta_1 X_{i,t} + \beta_2 D_{i,t} + \beta_3 (X_{i,t} \times D_{i,t}) + \boldsymbol{\beta}_4' \mathbf{Z}_{i,t} + \gamma_i + \delta_t + \varepsilon_{i,t},
	41	+ \label{eq:interaction}
	42	+\end{equation}
	43	+%
	44	+where $D_{i,t}$ is an indicator variable equal to one if \ldots{} The coefficient $\beta_3$ captures the differential effect of $X$ for \ldots{}

added paper/sections/results.tex +27 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+\section{Results}
	3	+\label{sec:results}
	4	+% ============================================================================
	5	+
	6	+\subsection{Baseline Results}
	7	+\label{subsec:baseline_results}
	8	+
	9	+Table~\ref{tab:regression} presents the estimation results of our baseline model specified in Equation~\eqref{eq:baseline}. Column~(1) reports the OLS estimates without fixed effects. Columns~(2)--(4) progressively add firm and time fixed effects and the full set of controls.
	10	+
	11	+\input{tables/regression}
	12	+
	13	+The coefficient on $X_{i,t}$ is positive and statistically significant at the 1\% level across all specifications. The point estimate in our preferred specification (Column~4) implies that a one-standard-deviation increase in $X$ is associated with a \ldots{} increase in $y$.
	14	+
	15	+\subsection{Graphical Evidence}
	16	+\label{subsec:graphical}
	17	+
	18	+Figure~\ref{fig:main_result} provides graphical evidence supporting our main findings.
	19	+
	20	+\input{figures/main_figure}
	21	+
	22	+The figure illustrates \ldots{} The upward trend in \ldots{} is consistent with the regression estimates reported in Table~\ref{tab:regression}.
	23	+
	24	+\subsection{Sub-sample Analysis}
	25	+\label{subsec:subsample}
	26	+
	27	+To explore potential heterogeneity, we re-estimate Equation~\eqref{eq:baseline} across sub-samples defined by \ldots{} The results, available in Table~\ref{tab:app_subsample} of Appendix~\ref{app:tables}, indicate that \ldots{}

added paper/sections/robustness.tex +26 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+\section{Robustness Checks}
	3	+\label{sec:robustness}
	4	+% ============================================================================
	5	+
	6	+We conduct several robustness tests to assess the sensitivity of our baseline results.
	7	+
	8	+\subsection{Alternative Variable Definitions}
	9	+\label{subsec:alt_definitions}
	10	+
	11	+We first verify that our results are not driven by the specific construction of the dependent variable. Table~\ref{tab:app_robustness} in Appendix~\ref{app:tables} reports estimates using \ldots{} as alternative measures. The coefficient on $X_{i,t}$ remains statistically significant and economically meaningful across all specifications.
	12	+
	13	+\subsection{Alternative Estimation Methods}
	14	+\label{subsec:alt_estimation}
	15	+
	16	+We re-estimate the model using \ldots{} to address potential concerns about \ldots{} The results are qualitatively unchanged.
	17	+
	18	+\subsection{Placebo Tests}
	19	+\label{subsec:placebo}
	20	+
	21	+As a falsification exercise, we replace the main explanatory variable with \ldots{} If our baseline results reflect a genuine economic relationship rather than spurious correlation, we expect the placebo coefficients to be statistically insignificant. Consistent with this expectation, none of the placebo estimates are significant at conventional levels.
	22	+
	23	+\subsection{Sensitivity to Sample Period}
	24	+\label{subsec:sample_period}
	25	+
	26	+We examine whether our results are sensitive to the sample period by \ldots{} The estimates remain stable across sub-periods, suggesting that our findings are not driven by a specific time window.

added paper/sections/titlepage.tex +77 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+% Title Page
	3	+% ============================================================================
	4	+\thispagestyle{empty}
	5	+
	6	+\begin{center}
	7	+
	8	+% --- Logo ---
	9	+\includegraphics[width=3.5cm]{uq_logo.jpg}
	10	+
	11	+\vspace{0.6cm}
	12	+
	13	+{\footnotesize\textsc{Université du Québec en Outaouais}}\\[0.15cm]
	14	+{\footnotesize\textsc{Département des sciences administratives}}
	15	+
	16	+\vspace{0.8cm}
	17	+
	18	+{\footnotesize\textsc{Working Paper No.~\WPnumber}}
	19	+
	20	+\vspace{1.2cm}
	21	+
	22	+% --- Title ---
	23	+{\LARGE\bfseries \WPtitle\par}
	24	+
	25	+\ifx\WPsubtitle\empty\else
	26	+ \vspace{0.3cm}
	27	+ {\large\itshape \WPsubtitle\par}
	28	+\fi
	29	+
	30	+\vspace{1.2cm}
	31	+
	32	+% --- Author ---
	33	+{\large \WPauthor}\\[0.3cm]
	34	+{\normalsize \WPaffiliation}\\[0.15cm]
	35	+{\normalsize \href{mailto:\WPemail}{\WPemail}}\\[0.15cm]
	36	+{\small \WPaddress}
	37	+
	38	+\vspace{0.8cm}
	39	+
	40	+% --- Date & Version ---
	41	+{\normalsize \WPdate}\\[0.1cm]
	42	+{\small Version~\WPversion}
	43	+
	44	+\end{center}
	45	+
	46	+\vfill
	47	+
	48	+\newpage
	49	+
	50	+% ============================================================================
	51	+% Abstract Page
	52	+% ============================================================================
	53	+\thispagestyle{empty}
	54	+
	55	+\vspace*{1cm}
	56	+
	57	+\noindent\rule{\textwidth}{0.4pt}
	58	+\vspace{0.3cm}
	59	+
	60	+\noindent\textbf{Abstract}
	61	+
	62	+\vspace{0.15cm}
	63	+
	64	+\noindent\WPabstract
	65	+
	66	+\vspace{0.4cm}
	67	+
	68	+\noindent\textbf{Keywords:} \WPkeywords
	69	+
	70	+\vspace{0.15cm}
	71	+
	72	+\noindent\textbf{JEL Classification:} \WPjel
	73	+
	74	+\vspace{0.3cm}
	75	+\noindent\rule{\textwidth}{0.4pt}
	76	+
	77	+\newpage

added paper/sections/titlepage_anon.tex +53 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+% ANONYMOUS TITLE PAGE — for double-anonymized journal submission
	3	+% Used by paper/main_anon.tex (same macros as main.tex, no author block,
	4	+% no institution, no logo). Abstract/keywords/JEL page identical to titlepage.tex.
	5	+% ============================================================================
	6	+\thispagestyle{empty}
	7	+\begin{center}
	8	+
	9	+\vspace*{3cm}
	10	+
	11	+{\LARGE\bfseries \WPtitle\par}
	12	+
	13	+\ifx\WPsubtitle\empty\else
	14	+ \vspace{0.3cm}
	15	+ {\large\itshape \WPsubtitle\par}
	16	+\fi
	17	+
	18	+\vspace{1.5cm}
	19	+
	20	+{\normalsize [Author identity withheld for review]}
	21	+
	22	+\vspace{0.8cm}
	23	+
	24	+{\normalsize \WPdate}
	25	+
	26	+\end{center}
	27	+
	28	+\vfill
	29	+
	30	+\newpage
	31	+\thispagestyle{empty}
	32	+\vspace*{1cm}
	33	+
	34	+\noindent\rule{\textwidth}{0.4pt}
	35	+\vspace{0.3cm}
	36	+
	37	+\noindent\textbf{Abstract}
	38	+\vspace{0.15cm}
	39	+
	40	+\noindent\WPabstract
	41	+
	42	+\vspace{0.4cm}
	43	+
	44	+\noindent\textbf{Keywords:} \WPkeywords
	45	+
	46	+\vspace{0.15cm}
	47	+
	48	+\noindent\textbf{JEL Classification:} \WPjel
	49	+
	50	+\vspace{0.3cm}
	51	+\noindent\rule{\textwidth}{0.4pt}
	52	+
	53	+\newpage

added paper/tables/regression.tex +37 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+% Table: Regression Results
	3	+% ============================================================================
	4	+\begin{table}[htbp]
	5	+ \centering
	6	+ \begin{threeparttable}
	7	+ \caption{Baseline Regression Results}
	8	+ \label{tab:regression}
	9	+ \begin{tabular}{@{}lcccc@{}}
	10	+ \toprule
	11	+ & (1) & (2) & (3) & (4) \\
	12	+ \midrule
	13	+ $X_{i,t}$ & 0.245$^{***}$ & 0.198$^{***}$ & 0.183$^{***}$ & 0.172$^{***}$ \\
	14	+ & (0.042) & (0.038) & (0.035) & (0.033) \\[6pt]
	15	+ Size & & & $-$0.032$^{**}$ & $-$0.028$^{**}$ \\
	16	+ & & & (0.014) & (0.013) \\[6pt]
	17	+ Book-to-Market & & & 0.051$^{***}$ & 0.047$^{***}$ \\
	18	+ & & & (0.018) & (0.017) \\[6pt]
	19	+ Leverage & & & & $-$0.089$^{**}$ \\
	20	+ & & & & (0.041) \\[6pt]
	21	+ ROA & & & & 0.015$^{*}$ \\
	22	+ & & & & (0.008) \\[6pt]
	23	+ \midrule
	24	+ Firm FE & No & Yes & Yes & Yes \\
	25	+ Time FE & No & No & Yes & Yes \\
	26	+ Controls & No & No & Yes & Yes \\[3pt]
	27	+ Observations & 125{,}400 & 125{,}400 & 125{,}400 & 125{,}400 \\
	28	+ $R^2$ & 0.032 & 0.148 & 0.215 & 0.228 \\
	29	+ Adjusted $R^2$ & 0.031 & 0.112 & 0.178 & 0.190 \\
	30	+ \bottomrule
	31	+ \end{tabular}
	32	+ \begin{tablenotes}[flushleft]
	33	+ \footnotesize
	34	+ \item \textit{Notes:} This table reports OLS estimates of Equation~\eqref{eq:baseline}. The dependent variable is $y_{i,t}$. $X_{i,t}$ is the main explanatory variable. Control variables include firm size, book-to-market ratio, leverage, and return on assets. Standard errors clustered at the firm level are reported in parentheses. $^{***}$, $^{**}$, and $^{*}$ denote statistical significance at the 1\%, 5\%, and 10\% levels, respectively.
	35	+ \end{tablenotes}
	36	+ \end{threeparttable}
	37	+\end{table}

added paper/tables/summary_stats.tex +29 −0

		@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
	1	+% ============================================================================
	2	+% Table: Summary Statistics
	3	+% ============================================================================
	4	+\begin{table}[htbp]
	5	+ \centering
	6	+ \begin{threeparttable}
	7	+ \caption{Summary Statistics}
	8	+ \label{tab:summary_stats}
	9	+ \begin{tabular}{@{}lcccccc@{}}
	10	+ \toprule
	11	+ Variable & $N$ & Mean & Std.\ Dev. & $p_{25}$ & Median & $p_{75}$ \\
	12	+ \midrule
	13	+ \multicolumn{7}{@{}l}{\textit{Panel A: Dependent Variables}} \\[3pt]
	14	+ $r_{i,t}$ (\%) & 125{,}400 & 0.82 & 4.35 & $-$1.92 & 0.65 & 3.48 \\
	15	+ $\sigma_{i,t}$ (\%) & 125{,}400 & 2.14 & 1.87 & 0.98 & 1.65 & 2.78 \\[6pt]
	16	+ \multicolumn{7}{@{}l}{\textit{Panel B: Explanatory Variables}} \\[3pt]
	17	+ $X_{i,t}$ & 125{,}400 & 0.45 & 0.32 & 0.21 & 0.40 & 0.65 \\
	18	+ Size (log) & 125{,}400 & 7.23 & 1.85 & 5.92 & 7.15 & 8.47 \\
	19	+ Book-to-Market & 125{,}400 & 0.68 & 0.54 & 0.30 & 0.56 & 0.91 \\
	20	+ Leverage & 125{,}400 & 0.34 & 0.21 & 0.17 & 0.32 & 0.48 \\
	21	+ ROA (\%) & 125{,}400 & 3.15 & 8.42 & 0.52 & 3.28 & 6.74 \\
	22	+ \bottomrule
	23	+ \end{tabular}
	24	+ \begin{tablenotes}[flushleft]
	25	+ \footnotesize
	26	+ \item \textit{Notes:} This table reports summary statistics for the main variables used in the analysis. The sample covers the period January~1990 to December~2023. $r_{i,t}$ is the monthly return of firm~$i$. $\sigma_{i,t}$ is the realized volatility computed from daily returns within the month. $X_{i,t}$ is the main explanatory variable. Size is the natural logarithm of market capitalization. Book-to-Market is the ratio of book equity to market equity. Leverage is total debt over total assets. ROA is return on assets. All continuous variables are winsorized at the 1st and 99th percentiles.
	27	+ \end{tablenotes}
	28	+ \end{threeparttable}
	29	+\end{table}
	30